Hindsight is 20/20

[nate33]

Just to add to the general frustration of being a Wizards fan under the Ernie Grunfeld regime, I thought it might be fun to go back in time and try and build a team with 20/20 hindsight. What decisions would you have made as GM? And you can cheat and pretend that you knew then what you know now. But any trades you make have to be reasonable - something that everyone agrees the other side would have done.

Here's my go at it. I'm starting with the 2011 draft because that's when EG really started to screw up. (I actually thought he did a pretty nice job of blowing up the old veteran squad, generating cap room, and acquiring a few picks.)

Our team going into the 2011 draft: Wall, Crawford, Young, Lewis, Booker, Blatche, McGee, Seraphin

The 2011 offseason/draft: At #6, take Klay Thompson. At #17, take Kenneth Faried. At #34, I could take Parsons, but I didn't want to be too greedy. Let's assume I drafted Mack.

The 2011/12 season: The season would probably have gone a bit better, but not all that much so. Rookies rarely make a huge impact. I'm going to assume the same general pattern. Saunders gets fired after 17 games and Wittman takes over. Young and McGee get traded because we don't envision resigning them. Blatche gets booed, etc. However, with better talent from the draft, I don't think we would finish with a top 3 pick. I figure we pick about 7th in the 2012 draft.

Our team going into the 2012 draft: Wall, Crawford, Thompson, Lewis, Faried, Booker, Blatche, Nene, Seraphin

The 2012 offseason/draft: At #7, I take Drummond. At #37, I botch that pick too. (I wanted Crowder, but he's gone at #34.) In the offseason, I buy out Lewis to create cap room. I trade Booker to Orlando for Ryan Anderson (the same deal New Orleans made involving Ayon). I sign Martell Webster.

The 2012/13 season: The team now has a lot of talent and chemistry. However, with the early injuries to Wall and Nene, they still get off to a slow start. Not 5-28 slow, but, say, 11-22. Thompson has definitely usurped the starting SG role from Crawford, giving Crawford more time at PG (and accelerating his Boston experience a year earlier). Drummond doesn't help much early in the season, but comes into his own late. Instead of 29 wins, we finish with 38 and squeak into the playoffs. We lose to the Heat, but hopefully win a game or two (since the Heat doesn't match up with our size) and gain a lot of experience.

Our team going into the 2012 draft: The lineup is pretty ridiculous now:
PG Wall/Crawford
SG Thompson/Crawford
SF Webster
PF Anderson/Faried
C Drummond/Nene/Seraphin

The 2013 offseason/draft: With Lewis' buyout coming off the books, we have about $12M in cap room. The only real need on the team is a defensive stopper at wing. I also think we are a bit too young and need another veteran. With Crawford having played well at PG, he is movable for a low 1st or a high 2nd. I make that trade, then sign Jarrett Jack and then make a BOYD trade to take Ariza's $8M contract off of New Orleans' hands (assuming they still have him). With our #15 pick, I don't even know who to draft - maybe a wing like Tony Snell.

Our team for this season:
PG Wall/Jack
SG Thompson/Jack/Webster
SF Webster/Ariza/Snell
PF Anderson/Faried
C Drummond/Nene/Seraphin

This team is insanely talented and well-balanced. Wall has perhaps the 3 best shooters in the league at their position at SG, SF and PF. He has the ultimate defensive stopper at center and a guy with soft enough hands to run the pick and roll. Drummond is Tyson Chandler on steroids. Nene and Jack provide veteran leadership, and Nene is a closer when we're worried about Drummond's free throws. Faried and Ariza provide crazy energy and defense. We have cap room in 2014 when Ariza comes off the books. We also have our own 2014 pick plus whatever pick received in the Crawford trade.

[barelyawake]

I remember this board completely deriding WizDynasty and me for wanting Drummond. There may have been one or two other people who poked their heads up enough to say something pro-Drummond, while this board collectively swung an ax at their head.

[Ruzious]

I remember this board completely deriding WizDynasty and I for wanting Drummond. There may have been one or two other people who poked their heads up enough to say something pro-Drummond, while this board collectively swung an ax at their head.

I think Dat was also consistently pro Drummond. I was inconsistent on him. At the beginning of the season, I said he might be the most valuable property in basketball. But I got swayed (as opposed to suede) against him for his lack of offensive game. Lesson - don't dismiss your first instincts.

[nate33]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

[mhd]

Most regretful thing is NOT trying to get that future Knicks pick denver has in the nene trade. Imagine if we had that pick!

[mhd]

Seriously: take vujavic with 6th pick and faried with 18th. I say we still struggle that year. Trade javale for the future Knicks pick instead of nene. We struggle even more and take Neal with the 3rd pick (if everyone gets hindsight than Davis an Drummond go 1 and2). Sign Ryan Anderson in fa, trade for Ariza. Going into this season, we'd have wall, beal, Ariza, Anderson, and vujavic, with Webster, faried, our 2013 1st rounder, and the future Knicks pick!

[mhd]

I liked Drummond too, but beal was a no brainier pick. It's not like we made a ves mistake with that pick.

[Ruzious]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Adams is a very good athlete for his size but not in Drummond's class, imo. I think physically and skill-wise there's not a lot to pick between Adams over Meyers Leonard. Leonard hasn't gotten much PT in Portland. Time will tell - maybe he's a hidden gem in the future.

[Ruzious]

Most regretful thing is NOT trying to get that future Knicks pick denver has in the nene trade. Imagine if we had that pick!

True - but Denver had a very sharp GM then. If they had their current GM back then, I think you're right that we could have finagled it out of them.

[nate33]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Adams is a very good athlete for his size but not in Drummond's class, imo. I think physically and skill-wise there's not a lot to pick between Adams over Meyers Leonard. Leonard hasn't gotten much PT in Portland. Time will tell - maybe he's a hidden gem in the future.

The one major difference between the two is that Adams was a much better rebounder as a freshman than Leonard was as a sophomore. It hinted at a potential "softness" to Leonard that Adams clearly does not have.

I'm open minded to trading for Leonard if the cost isn't high, but I still worry about his rebounding.

[Upper Decker]

I think it's too difficult to do multiple picks or transactions because it's impossible to know how things would play out so this can only be done in a vacuum. The clear and obvious move that should have been made with hindsight is Drummond over Beal.

I was very much in the Pro-Beal camp so I'm would have failed this pick as well. I however, was very anti-MKG and considering the star power taken after him I'm not sure why he hasn't been tagged with the "bust" label by the masses yet? Lillard, Beal, and Drummond all look like all-star quality players. Derrick Williams has been declared an unmitigated disaster and no one else taken after him look as good as Lillard, Beal, or Drummond.

[Ruzious]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Adams is a very good athlete for his size but not in Drummond's class, imo. I think physically and skill-wise there's not a lot to pick between Adams over Meyers Leonard. Leonard hasn't gotten much PT in Portland. Time will tell - maybe he's a hidden gem in the future.

The one major difference between the two is that Adams was a much better rebounder as a freshman than Leonard was as a sophomore. It hinted at a potential "softness" to Leonard that Adams clearly does not have.

I'm open minded to trading for Leonard if the cost isn't high, but I still worry about his rebounding.

Good points. On physicality you're right - Adams has the clear advantage, and Leonard may never get that. I'll wait and see if you're right on Adams becomes as good as you think he will. If he does, you're theory will change my thinking.

[verbal8]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Adams is a very good athlete for his size but not in Drummond's class, imo. I think physically and skill-wise there's not a lot to pick between Adams over Meyers Leonard. Leonard hasn't gotten much PT in Portland. Time will tell - maybe he's a hidden gem in the future.

A fairly simple measure that seems pretty strongly correlated to bigs doing well in the pros is the No Step Vertical reach. It indicates a clear advantage for Haywood and Chandler vs. Kwame Brown due to their reaches. You can't rely on any one factor in evaluating prospects, but it does look like a helpful tool. It is interesting that Dwight Howard and Okafor had nearly identical "No Step Verticals", however one was a teenager and one was in his early 20s. Also Howard was quite a bit quicker on the lane agility.

[nate33]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Adams is a very good athlete for his size but not in Drummond's class, imo. I think physically and skill-wise there's not a lot to pick between Adams over Meyers Leonard. Leonard hasn't gotten much PT in Portland. Time will tell - maybe he's a hidden gem in the future.

A fairly simple measure that seems pretty strongly correlated to bigs doing well in the pros is the No Step Vertical reach. It indicates a clear advantage for Haywood and Chandler vs. Kwame Brown due to their reaches. You can't rely on any one factor in evaluating prospects, but it does look like a helpful tool. It is interesting that Dwight Howard and Okafor had nearly identical "No Step Verticals", however one was a teenager and one was in his early 20s. Also Howard was quite a bit quicker on the lane agility.

I've come around to WizD's view that weight is important. There are plenty of skinny center prospects who have outstanding measurables but no meat on their haunches. They pan out to be, at best, the Marcus Camby's and Javale McGees of the NBA, but there are tons of misses too. The real difference makers are the ones who weigh 245+ and can still exhibit those athletic feats (maybe you drop the cutoff down to 240 for freshmen).

[verbal8]

I've come around to WizD's view that weight is important. There are plenty of skinny center prospects who have outstanding measurables but no meat on their haunches. They pan out to be, at best, the Marcus Camby's and Javale McGees of the NBA, but there are tons of misses too. The real difference makers are the ones who weigh 245+ and can still exhibit those athletic feats (maybe you drop the cutoff down to 240 for freshmen).

I can see it being a useful criteria. It probably measures basketball strength better than the bench press.

A couple big misses on that criteria are Noah and possibly Larry Sanders. With Noah's NCAA production, it would probably be a good idea to violate a "rule" on drafting. Although the 2010 draft dropped off pretty quickly, so Sanders might be best option even if he misses the weight criteria.

Guys like Bosh, Anthony Davis, etc. probably need to be evaluated as PFs even if they play center.

[Illmatic21]

Beal is no Drummond, but he'll still end up being an All-Star/All-NBA caliber player for many years.

Cleveland botched the pick way worse than us. And Toronto picked Ross..

[closg00]

Seriously: take Vucevic with 6th pick and Faried with 18th. I say we still struggle that year. Trade javale for the future Knicks pick instead of nene. We struggle even more and take Neal with the 3rd pick (if everyone gets hindsight than Davis an Drummond go 1 and2). Sign Ryan Anderson in fa, trade for Ariza. Going into this season, we'd have wall, beal, Ariza, Anderson, and vujavic, with Webster, faried, our 2013 1st rounder, and the future Knicks pick!

If we had just not-blown the 2011 draft alone, we will feel-it during the playoffs.

[pancakes3]

On one hand, I want to believe that guys who reach a certain height/weight/reach/athleticism crosses the threshold of can't-miss. On the other hand I'm reminded of: Olowokandi, Jason/Jarron Collins, Mark Blount, Jelani McCoy, Jerome James, and the like.

[Zonkerbl]

I've learned my lesson too. I did some research on historical patterns in the draft back when we were discussing Adams. The bottom line is that freak athlete 7-footers who also have length, girth and physicality tend to pan out. I had Adams 4th on my board behind Noel, Dipo and Porter.

Huh. In your opinion did Michael Olowokandi pan out?

And then there's Kwame Brown.

[daSwami]

A can't think of any realistic scenarios that would've bumped us ahead of Miami and Indiana today. I wouldn't change a thing. Grunfeld is a genius.