NFC Playoff Picture & Wild Card Scenarios: 4 weeks to go

[gswhoops]

Right now, the NFC playoff picture looks like this:

(1) Seattle (11-1, West)*
(2) New Orleans (9-3, South)
(3) Detroit (7-5, North)
(4) Dallas (7-5, East)
(5) Carolina (9-3, WC1)
(6) San Francisco (8-4, WC2)
---------------------------------------
Philadelphia (7-5)
Arizona (7-5)

*Clinched playoff spot

Division Races

West: Seattle is 3 games up on SF with 4 to play and would mathematically clinch the division with a win over the Niners this weekend. Even if San Fran wins their re-match, it would take an epic collapse by the Seahawks to surrender the division.

South: Carolina and New Orleans are both 9-3 and play each other twice in the final 4 weeks. Both teams have easy schedules aside from those matchups (New Orleans: @STL, TB; Carolina: NYJ, @ATL) so their two games against each other will almost certainly decide the division. If they split and both win their other games, New Orleans would claim the division based on Conference record.

North: Detroit has a one game lead and the tiebreaker on Chicago (so, functionally a two-game lead), meaning three wins would lock up the division even if Chicago runs the table. Given their schedule (@PHI, BAL, NYG, @MIN) they seem like a virtual lock to win the division.

East: Both Dallas and Philly stand at 7-5 with a pivotal Week 17 matchup between them likely to decide the division winner. Both have the same conference record and all remaining games for both teams are in-conference, so if they go into Week 17 with the same record it will be a winner-take-all showdown. Dallas holds a slight edge at the moment, having beaten Philadelphia in Week 7. While the Giants are not mathematically eliminated yet, they would have to win out and both Dallas and Philly would have to lose all three games leading up to their Week 17 matchup.

Wild Card

Here's where it starts to get interesting.

One wild card seed is basically guaranteed to the South runner-up. One of NO or Carolina would have to go 1-3 over their last 4 games AND the Cardinals would have to win out or the East runner-up would have to go 3-1. Two wins for either South team guarantees them a playoff spot.

San Francisco currently holds the 6th and final WC slot at 8-4, one game ahead of both Arizona and whichever of Dallas and Philly does not win the East. They hold the tiebreaker over Arizona (both H2H and Conf. record) but not over the East runner-up (both Dallas and Philly have a better conference record, and SF will not play either of them this season). What does that mean? By virtue of holding the tiebreaker over Arizona, three wins guarantees the Niners a playoff spot over either the Cardinals or the East runner-up. With two wins, the Niners could lose their spot to Arizona if they run the table, or to the East runner-up if they go 3-1.

To summarize, the paths to the WC are as follows:

South runner-up (NO or Carolina): win two games
San Francisco: win three games
Arizona: win out AND South runner up goes 1-3 OR Niners go 2-2
East runner-up (Dallas or Philly): go 3-1 AND South runner-up goes 1-3 OR Niners go 2-2

[Higga]

Dallas will win the NFC East. Their schedule is weaker down the stretch, they have the tiebreaker over Philly, and they play Philly again at home in Week 17.

New Orleans wins the South, with Carolina taking the first Wild Card.

San Fran is better than Zona and will take the second Wild Card. Arizona will be the hard luck good team that misses the playoffs.

Detroit wins the North. Chicago is done on D and Green Bay will make it interesting once Rodgers returns but they're a bit too far behind.

Final NFC standings:

1. Seattle
2. New Orleans
3. Detroit
4. Dallas
5. Carolina
6. San Francisco

[hermes]

i think the lions will win the division but they aren't a lock to win it, neither of their games are gimmies and even though the bears and packers have their problems the lions have issues (turnovers) as well

[hermes]

and i'll roll the dice and say the panthers win the south

[GS Warriors 1]

I really like Carolina/NO and SF's chances of winning in the WC round.

[blazza18]

SF aren't a lock yet either considering they have Seattle this week. They lose that and the 2nd WC spot becomes wide open. Wouldn't rule out the Bears or Packers winning the North yet either, anything can happen. Who knows what'll happen in the East. Both teams playing well but Eagles have the harder schedule, so Dallas has the advantage there.

[El Turco]

arizona has a game with seattle in seattle as well so san francisco losing this week wouldn't make that big of a difference. considering san fran likely going to have the tiebreaker over arizona even if they lose last week, arizona is going to have to wait for san fran to lose to tampa bay or atlanta. arizona blew it last week imo.

loser of nfc east has a better shot at taking over sf in wild card but both dallas and philly have tough schedule, just don't see it unless san fran blows it against two bottom feeders in nfc south.

[gswhoops]

arizona has a game with seattle in seattle as well so san francisco losing this week wouldn't make that big of a difference. considering san fran likely going to have the tiebreaker over arizona even if they lose last week, arizona is going to have to wait for san fran to lose to tampa bay or atlanta. arizona blew it last week imo.

loser of nfc east has a better shot at taking over sf in wild card but both dallas and philly have tough schedule, just don't see it unless san fran blows it against two bottom feeders in nfc south.

The whole SF/Arizona clash for the last WC spot does get interesting since we play each other in Week 17. If the Niners lose to Seattle and then beat Atlanta and Tampa Bay, and Arizona wins out, then the winner of the Wk17 game would take the Wild Card. That would require Arizona to beat the Seahawks in Seattle, though. Lose that game, and they have to pray SF drops one to the Falcons or Bucs.

The East runner up is a little more plausible to be, but it would require both Dallas and Philly to win their next three straight (leading up to their Wk17 matchup) and the Niners to lose at least two games.

[gswhoops]

All things considered, I would be surprised if the playoff picture didn't look like this (knock on wood):

(1) Seattle
(2) New Orleans/Carolina
(3) Detroit
(4) Dallas/Philadelphia
(5) Carolina/New Orleans
(6) San Francisco

[Celtics_Champs]

Ya know the AFC is still a division.

If NE can't win it, I think I'm most certainly going to be going for an NFC team. So I hope its the Niners or Philly.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Ya know the AFC is still a division.

If NE can't win it, I think I'm most certainly going to be going for an NFC team. So I hope its the Niners or Philly.

Its a conference

[therealbig3]

As an Eagles fan, nothing would make me happier if they could beat the Vikings and the Bears, while the Cowboys go 1-1 against the Packers and Redskins (lose to the Packers and beat the Redskins). Division gets decided early and the last game becomes meaningless. I just don't trust the Eagles to beat the Cowboys on the road.

[Icness]

After the weekend it now looks like this:
1. Seattle 11-2
2. New Orleans 10-3
3. Philadelphia 8-5
4. Detroit 7-6
5. Carolina 9-4
6. San Francisco 9-4

Seattle has clinched. New Orleans clinches a berth with a win this week. Carolina does too with a win and a ARI loss.


7. Arizona 8-5
8. Chicago 7-6
9. Dallas 7-6, though there is a funky tiebreaker here. Even though Chicago beat Dallas, the Cowboys have a better NFC record (6-2 vs. 3-6). At least that's what ESPN is saying on their playoff standing page.

Basically that means the Bears either win the NFC North, which requires them to finish one game ahead of Detroit, or they're out. Dallas has more viable Wild Card life.

10. Green Bay 6-6-1
The Packers technically can still score a Wild Card but it would require them winning out and SF, CAR and DAL all not getting more than 9 wins. They have a much better shot at winning the NFC North. Could come down to Week 17, CHI vs. GB.

11. NY Giants 5-8, eliminated when Philly won.

15. Atlanta
16. Washington

The last two teams won divisions last year. Now they're both 3-10.

[gswhoops]

I think ESPN might be wrong there. Per the NFL website the first tiebreaker is head to head (which is applicable here for CHI/DAL), then conference record.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[therealbig3]

According to NFL.com, Chicago ranks higher than Dallas.

[gswhoops]

I mean, it's kind of an academic point at best, since it would take some pretty spectacular collapses for either Chicago or Dallas to have a shot at the wild card.