2014 Draft Thread (Early offseason panic edition).

[The Consiglieri]

Hmmm, wonder if I can do as well predicting the 2nd 20 as I did the first. I nailed our record after 20 following our first week of games, 9-11. Not bad . Hoping the tank continues to grow stronger, these fits and starts are not good for my anxiety.

[Ruzious]

And Noah Vonleh looks really good too if he comes out.

I watched Vonleh last weekend, and I think you were right - he should stay another year. He's got very good potential , but his offense is just not ready.

Another sleeper I know next to nothing about is Dorell Wright's little brother Delon Wright - who plays for Utah. He's a 21 year old JuCo transfer - listed at 6'5 180 as a forward, but judging from his stats, he's got PG skills - and scoring skills - and defensive skills. http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/players/120707/gamelog/ Some of his stats after 8 games are absurd - 74.3% FG%, 6.4 assists per game vs 1.8 to's, 3.4 steals per game and 1.1 blocks. He gets 6.8 rebounds per game in his spare time. And he's improving - his last game was his best - with 23 points and 12 assists.

[stevemcqueen1]

And Noah Vonleh looks really good too if he comes out.

I watched Vonleh last weekend, and I think you were right - he should stay another year. He's got very good potential , but his offense is just not ready.

Yeah I think it's the right move. Spend another year in college getting great coaching, developing his scoring arsenal and honing his decision making. Then come out next year as a strong top five pick candidate.

He's got an NBA body and he's athletic. Nice potential as a combo forward. I think he ends up around 6'10 and he's already got some strength on him. Frame to get a lot bigger too.

He was pretty good against Syracuse. Indiana just can not solve that zone or handle their athleticism, but Vonleh did a great job matching the physical tone Syracuse set. He scored 17 points on just five field goal attempts. Just willed himself to the line over and over, his activity level and aggression was great.

I think the core of a really really good player is there. He's definitely behind Parker/Randle/Gordon in offensive skills. But I think his potential is as good as theirs. If not better. I think he ends up bigger and stronger than all three of them. Randle is already fully grown and he's not nearly as long as Vonleh.

[pcbothwel]

Someone is going to bust. Or Someones. But right now it looks like the top 7 is 7 future All Stars in a row.

And as bad as the East is, it's about to get a massive infusion of talent.

Bust could be a strong word, but I think there are legit concerns. IS Wiggins going to be Scottie, or Derozan? Is Parker going to become a DEADLY stretch 4, but also defend like Melo? Will Randle physically dominate offensivly and on the boards like Amare/ Randolph, but defend like them too? Will advanced scouting show that Exum is a poor shooter with no left hand? Is gordon a tweener with slow feet and poor FT shooting that foreshadow bad defense/offense. IS Marcus Smart a strong playmaker/defender that will struggle with efficency and to shoot off the dribble and therefore make him more Tyreke than Harden....

These are legit. But I think Parker has better court vision than Melo, so while his defense will be much of the same, he wont be a black hole on offense. I also think that Smart has better passing instincts than Tyreke..and Randle..well ..he's a man.

[stevemcqueen1]

Someone is going to bust. Or Someones. But right now it looks like the top 7 is 7 future All Stars in a row.

And as bad as the East is, it's about to get a massive infusion of talent.

Bust could be a strong word, but I think there are legit concerns. IS Wiggins going to be Scottie, or Derozan? Is Parker going to become a DEADLY stretch 4, but also defend like Melo? Will Randle physically dominate offensivly and on the boards like Amare/ Randolph, but defend like them too? Will advanced scouting show that Exum is a poor shooter with no left hand? Is gordon a tweener with slow feet and poor FT shooting that foreshadow bad defense/offense. IS Marcus Smart a strong playmaker/defender that will struggle with efficency and to shoot off the dribble and therefore make him more Tyreke than Harden....

These are legit. But I think Parker has better court vision than Melo, so while his defense will be much of the same, he wont be a black hole on offense. I also think that Smart has better passing instincts than Tyreke..and Randle..well ..he's a man.

Well, the law of averages says some of these guys will bust. That's unavoidable IMO. And the success or failure of some of these players isn't going to be in their own hands. But I'm not sure it's fruitful or even possible to try and predict who those busts are going to be along those lines.

I think you summarized a lot of the legitimate concerns of these prospects. They certainly aren't perfect. What they are though is big and athletic and skilled which is about as much as you can ask. And when we seek to define these guys based on past players, we shouldn't get too carried away with the analogies.

My response for each player:

- I don't see DeRozan or Scottie Pippen in Andrew Wiggins. The closest comparison I can come up with is a 6'8 Derrick Rose. I wouldn't hesitate to take that kid first overall and don't have any real concerns about him. I don't think it gets better than his body control and leaping ability paired with his skills and height. This kid is the no brainer #1 pick.

- I like Embiid second now too because of the physical attributes. I don't think he has any important physical limitations. He's not the most explosive, not necessarily a pogo stick like Noel and Drummond. But he is in fact a good leaper and he has awesome feet. Just great coordination all around. And you don't have to be a pogo stick at his size. His lack of skill is natural and understandable. And I do think the elements of a fine offensive player are there with him.

- I haven't seen Exum in real game action, only at the hoops summit and in cut ups. I can't conclude too much about his skill level. But I think he can be elite physically because of how long and tall and explosive he is. The strength isn't there yet with him, and that's an issue that could prevent him from adjusting to the NBA quickly. His potential is awesome if an organization takes their time with him.

- I like Vonleh too because I don't think he has any physical limitations either even though he's low skill right now. He can at least shoot set shots and FTs and he's got an excellent IQ and motor. For me, these four guys have the best all around upside in the class because they don't have any physical limitations.

- I don't agree Gordon has slow fleet because I think he's a natural PF. But I do think he's got a lack of size for the position, and that's the real knock for me. It's hard to find a position for him. He's going to have to be a hyper energy guy that runs the floor like a maniac and crashes the boards relentlessly. And I think he can do this. But the size limits his upside to be a blue chip star like LeBron or Durant.

- I think you're accurate on Randle. I agree that he is a tweener and he doesn't have great length for a PF. He's got tons of offensive skills and a great motor and IQ. He'll make a difference, but I would be surprised if he's ever a decent defender. I think his team is going to have to do like Memphis and the Clippers have done with Blake Griffin and Z Bo and get a defensive type center to pair with him. It's made all the difference for Memphis in hiding Z Bo. This guy should go to the 76ers.

- Parker's biggest flaws to me are a lack of explosiveness compared to the other guys, and just having no real foundation for defense right now. His fundamentals are awful, just like Kyrie Irving's were coming from Duke. Apparently Coach K stopped teaching defense. I think Carmelo comparisons are very apt for Parker. And I think that's a legitimate franchise player, just a flawed one. We could certainly use him, but if we end up keeping our pick, it won't be high enough to get him.

[stevemcqueen1]

Also meant to add that I can see Tyreke and Harden elements in Smart too. I think he's going to be a worlds better defender than both of them though. But I think he's a bit slow and unexplosive like them and predicates his game on strength, skill, and relentlessness like they do. I also don't see a great leaper off one foot, which is a little troubling. He's certainly not Dwyane Wade even though he's got his size and strength.

I think the biggest question with him is what position is he? I don't see the natural quickness of an NBA PG, but I do see the size and strength of a SG. But does he have the outside shooting ability to play SG? These guys have to be able to shoot. That's the one position where you just can't really build around a guy who isn't a reliable long range shooter. That's what separates Harden from Tyreke. Harden is streaky and not a true knockdown guy, but he can shoot. Tyreke has never had three point range and is not even that reliable with his feet set. Smart needs to have an outside shot or else he's going to have a hard time finding an NBA position like Tyreke has.

[daSwami]

2 guys that might still be available in the mid-2nd round that could turn out to be decent pros:

1 - Aaron Craft - I've been on his bandwagon since he was a freshman. I love watching him play because you can practically see him think - he's always in the right place on the floor. He's also tough as nails and an amazing defender. His size and lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the 1st round, but he seems to do everything else well (defense, handle, passing, and basketball IQ).

2 - (mostly because I'm watching him now on tv) Patric Young - first, he's built like Ben Wallace. He looks like a man among boys on the court. I don't know if he has a skill-set that would translate to the NBA, but at least we wouldn't have to wait on him to "fill out."

Dunno, just brainstorming.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think a nice player comparison for Patrick Young is a younger Kendrick Perkins, back when he was useful. I've watched him for a couple years now. He's a low maintenance energy big that rebounds and defends.

I like Craft too. It seems to easy to always compare white players to white players, but he's Kirk Hinrich-like in his strengths and weaknesses. I think he can be a solid pro despite not really having much in the way of scoring tools. Gonna have to be able to shoot set shots from 3 though.

[Ruzious]

The problem with Patric Young is that he's not real good at anything - other than building his body. He's a poor rebounder for a power player - and not much of a shooter or scorer.
I don't get why Mitch McGary doesn't get more respect - being 6'11 265 for Michigan and putting up good numbers. Not sure how his athleticism is questioned when he averages 3.6 steals per 40 minutes along with 1.4 blocks. His rebounding is excellent at 14.2 per 40. And he was known as a very skilled scorer coming from HS. He's scored solidly - with good efficiency, but he's been an afterthought on offense with so many shooter. If he had Burke still without Hardaway hogging shots, he'd be putting up impressive scoring numbers. NBAdraft.net has him as a 2nd rounder now - which is ridiculous.

[mhd]

The problem with Patric Young is that he's not real good at anything - other than building his body. He's a poor rebounder for a power player - and not much of a shooter or scorer.
I don't get why Mitch McGary doesn't get more respect - being 6'11 265 for Michigan and putting up good numbers. Not sure how his athleticism is questioned when he averages 3.6 steals per 40 minutes along with 1.4 blocks. His rebounding is excellent at 14.2 per 40. And he was known as a very skilled scorer coming from HS. He's scored solidly - with good efficiency, but he's been an afterthought on offense with so many shooter. If he had Burke still without Hardaway hogging shots, he'd be putting up impressive scoring numbers. NBAdraft.net has him as a 2nd rounder now - which is ridiculous.

I like McGary, but the age issue is hard to ignore. That's why he's not higher. Doug McDermott is only 6 months older, but he's a senior while McGary is a sophmore.

[pancakes3]

The problem with Patric Young is that he's not real good at anything - other than building his body. He's a poor rebounder for a power player - and not much of a shooter or scorer.

I agree. I don't know why I arbitrarily like Patric Young but his numbers don't back up what the eye test tells us.

I don't get why Mitch McGary doesn't get more respect - being 6'11 265 for Michigan and putting up good numbers. Not sure how his athleticism is questioned when he averages 3.6 steals per 40 minutes along with 1.4 blocks. His rebounding is excellent at 14.2 per 40. And he was known as a very skilled scorer coming from HS. He's scored solidly - with good efficiency, but he's been an afterthought on offense with so many shooter. If he had Burke still without Hardaway hogging shots, he'd be putting up impressive scoring numbers. NBAdraft.net has him as a 2nd rounder now - which is ridiculous.

He's sliding but I stopped NBAdraft.net a long time ago. DX has his at 20 which is still too low. I suspect the age and how raw offensively he is for his age has something to do with it. Plus he's only 6'10-6'11 rather than a true 7 footer. Good for us though. I'd say he's a poor man's Demarcus Cousins who plays within himself offensively? And less skilled offensively too... So just a really poor man's Vucevic?

[Ruzious]

The problem with Patric Young is that he's not real good at anything - other than building his body. He's a poor rebounder for a power player - and not much of a shooter or scorer.

I agree. I don't know why I arbitrarily like Patric Young but his numbers don't back up what the eye test tells us.

I don't get why Mitch McGary doesn't get more respect - being 6'11 265 for Michigan and putting up good numbers. Not sure how his athleticism is questioned when he averages 3.6 steals per 40 minutes along with 1.4 blocks. His rebounding is excellent at 14.2 per 40. And he was known as a very skilled scorer coming from HS. He's scored solidly - with good efficiency, but he's been an afterthought on offense with so many shooter. If he had Burke still without Hardaway hogging shots, he'd be putting up impressive scoring numbers. NBAdraft.net has him as a 2nd rounder now - which is ridiculous.

He's sliding but I stopped NBAdraft.net a long time ago. DX has his at 20 which is still too low. I suspect the age and how raw offensively he is for his age has something to do with it. Plus he's only 6'10-6'11 rather than a true 7 footer. Good for us though. I'd say he's a poor man's Demarcus Cousins who plays within himself offensively? And less skilled offensively too... So just a really poor man's Vucevic?

Yeah, I'd like him better if he were a year younger, but he's 21 and probably as ready for the NBA as the several 23 year old centers that came out for last draft. And his birthday's the same as mine - not the year. He kindof reminds me of another underrated Mitch - Mitch Kupchack was a heckuva player before selling out to LAL. I think McGary's going to surprise people with his offense and could even play some PF. I don't think we've seen the best of him - guys with his combination of size, skills, and aggression are unusual.

[Dat2U]

When analyzing McGary, I think you have to look at him like he's a senior. He's a grown man. He should be dominating these kids. If he's not completely dominating and simply doing well, that's not good enough IMO. What separates him from being the next Todd Fuller or Rafael Araujo?

[dobrojim]

2 guys that might still be available in the mid-2nd round that could turn out to be decent pros:

1 - Aaron Craft - I've been on his bandwagon since he was a freshman. I love watching him play because you can practically see him think - he's always in the right place on the floor. He's also tough as nails and an amazing defender. His size and lack of a jump shot will keep him out of the 1st round, but he seems to do everything else well (defense, handle, passing, and basketball IQ).

I've like Craft for a while. If Stevie Blake can have a 10 year NBA career, maybe
Craft can too. He certainly knows how to play defense. The main question is will
he be physically over-matched. Another 'crafty' white boy that did ok was John Stockton.
Can't say that I followed the draft then anything like I do now (which still isn't that much)
but Stockton was not even drafted in the top 10 and ended up as a GoaT PG. Of course the odds
on Craft matching that are slim indeed but forecasting/drafting clearly remains an
inexact science.

There is a lot to be said for simply knowing how to play and we've seen
guys that are elite athletes come and go all the time.

[Dat2U]

Aaron Craft will be a great 2nd round pick as a defensive specialist. How useful he'll be and whether he can make himself a respectable rotation player will be based on whether he ever develops a reliable j. Should stick in the league because of his defense though. Could have an Eric Snow like career in the right situation.

[dobrojim]

Aaron Craft will be a great 2nd round pick as a defensive specialist. How useful he'll be and whether he can make himself a respectable rotation player will be based on whether he ever develops a reliable j. Should stick in the league because of his defense though. Could have an Eric Snow like career in the right situation.

I don't want to insult the kid but I'd take him right now. I doubt he'd have any trouble
beating out our current backup PG.

[Ruzious]

When analyzing McGary, I think you have to look at him like he's a senior. He's a grown man. He should be dominating these kids. If he's not completely dominating and simply doing well, that's not good enough IMO. What separates him from being the next Todd Fuller or Rafael Araujo?

Again, he's 21; not 23 like most of the centers in last year's group. And look at his per minute stats from last year. They were very good. This season, his defensive and rebounding stats ARE dominant. His offense is decent and would be better if he had his old PG there. We're talking about a kid who played for a national championship contender last season - not Northwestern Fresno Community College. And as far as Fuller and Araujo - that's why you SCOUT players. Those 2 were stiffs.

[stevemcqueen1]

The problem with Patric Young is that he's not real good at anything - other than building his body. He's a poor rebounder for a power player - and not much of a shooter or scorer.
I don't get why Mitch McGary doesn't get more respect - being 6'11 265 for Michigan and putting up good numbers. Not sure how his athleticism is questioned when he averages 3.6 steals per 40 minutes along with 1.4 blocks. His rebounding is excellent at 14.2 per 40. And he was known as a very skilled scorer coming from HS. He's scored solidly - with good efficiency, but he's been an afterthought on offense with so many shooter. If he had Burke still without Hardaway hogging shots, he'd be putting up impressive scoring numbers. NBAdraft.net has him as a 2nd rounder now - which is ridiculous.

I really like McGary. He reminds me of Jared Sullinger and Kevin Love, both guys who had their athleticism knocked because they aren't leapers.

He knows how to play basketball. He could probably run some point he's such a good passer and has such great floor vision. And he's always around the ball. He anticipates the game well.

I don't know if he can shoot, but if he does get a long range jumper, he could be a beast like Sully and Love.

I think he's a solid lottery pick. I'd take him in that range. But I can easily see him falling in the draft and getting taken behind a bunch of guys who will never be nearly as good as him like Sully did.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah, I'd like him better if he were a year younger, but he's 21 and probably as ready for the NBA as the several 23 year old centers that came out for last draft. And his birthday's the same as mine - not the year. He kindof reminds me of another underrated Mitch - Mitch Kupchack was a heckuva player before selling out to LAL. I think McGary's going to surprise people with his offense and could even play some PF. I don't think we've seen the best of him - guys with his combination of size, skills, and aggression are unusual.

Oh I think he is an NBA PF. At least offensively. He actually has a pretty competent handle for a big man and is a gifted passer. Particularly from the perimeter. I'd run some offense through him like Portland does with Aldridge.

He needs a jumper. If he gets that I think you can play him at PF without reservation.

He is a little old but I think he's also emotionally immature and you have to factor that in. The skills and body are NBA ready but it's taken him longer than it probably would have another comparable talent because of some emotional immaturity.

I think he looks special.

[stevemcqueen1]

McGary has good hands.