2014 Discussion Thread

[trwi7]

A .700 OPS platoon is miles ahead of where we were last year and we're not going to be good anyways even if they believe we have a chance, we really don't.

[Kerb Hohl]

A .700 OPS platoon is miles ahead of where we were last year and we're not going to be good anyways even if they believe we have a chance, we really don't.

After looking at Morris' numbers as I edited in above, I'm thinking below .700 is possible with that.

I think the offense, if healthy, would have been great if Hart came back. Would Loney cost any draft picks? If we give up nothing significant for him or Davis I wouldn't really care. Would be a "not my money" or "worthless prospect" trade. If we have to give any picks or players up, screw it.

[Siefer]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale 44s
The #Brewers, who would have given base salary and incentives worth about $8 million to Hart, now turning focus to James Loney
Retweeted by J.P. Breen

Huh. A lot more than I thought Hart would get coming off of a lost season and two knee surgeries. Another reminder that the TV revenue explosion has made baseball a new world.

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Well this sucks. Stupid Mariners.

[HurricaneKid]

2014 Mariners=2013 Blue Jays

Sorry but we let Corey go cheap. 5M base??

You just can't have a gaping hole at first. No one has a gaping hole at first.

[MickeyDavis]

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin was disappointed not to retain first baseman Corey Hart but made it clear Wednesday he did not blame Hart for taking a far better offer from Seattle.

Melvin wouldn't provide exact details but the Journal Sentinel learned the Brewers offered Hart a base salary of $4 million with $2.5 million in incentives. The Mariners offered Hart a $6 million guaranteed salary with incentives that could push his total compensation to $13 million, doubling the total package presented by Milwaukee.

Hart made $10 million in 2013 but had surgeries on both knees and missed the entire season.

Melvin said Hart's agent, Jeff Berry, told him what the Mariners had on the table and the sides were too far apart to close the gap. Melvin offered a choice of an option but said Hart and Berry didn't want it.

"We just didn't think we'd get there," said Melvin. "In the scheme of things, if I'm a player it probably was (a big gap) in some sense. We worked hard at it. There's risk involved in everything you do. With certain players there are performance risks, injury risks and medical risks. You give the best offer you feel you can give and still try to continue to put a team together. The incentives was a big difference.

"Corey had a very nice career here. The American League (has) the DH. The talent pool for NL league clubs (is less). That's not crying or whining. That's just the way it is. Sometimes you can get an additional 25 or 30 games in a DH role. The incentives can be reached a little more in the American League.

"I don't blame him... I said, 'We're too far apart to go back and forth and it's too late in the process.' We have a good relationship. There's no animosity. We were very upfront. There was not a whole lot of negotiating going on. They didn't take our offer for leverage. On any player, we have a certain level we can go to. Our level of risk with players on performance and players with injuries is different than others."

As for Hart's comments in late September that he'd take less money to return to Milwaukee, the team that drafted him in 2000, Melvin said, "I understand it. I don't know what (that statement) means, a lot of times. It shouldn't be painted as a bad picture that Corey left because he said that. We said the same thing, that we'd like to have him back.

"When it gets down to it, you have to look at the numbers, look at the situation and weigh into it."

Melvin noted that Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was the Brewers' scouting director when Hart was drafted and has a relationship with him. Hart also wanted to play for a team that trains in the Phoenix area, where he lives.

Hart put out this statement about his decision: "I can’t get into specifics right now but this was a family decision based on a lot of factors. The Mariners showed they were sincerely interested and made a strong push. And I get a chance to DH some while still having Spring Training in Arizona near home. I have no hard feelings toward the Brewers and certainly have great appreciation for the team and its fans. This was just the best thing to do for me and my family.”

As for where this leaves the Brewers at first base, Melvin said, "We're still looking. We still have a few things moving; not a lot of things."

Melvin said he would explore both trades and the free agent market, neither of which is booming at present.

"Whatever is the best fit, giving up the least," said Melvin. "Giving up players is always hard. If you give up a player and have to fill that hole, we'd like to try to avoid that. If you make a trade, you do it from depth you have a certain positions."

If Melvin goes the free-agent route to avoid giving up players for an Ike Davis or Mitch Moreland, it would appear James Loney is the best option. Loney is coming off a nice year with Tampa Bay and reportedly was seekint $27 million over there years, a level the Brewers probably can't reach. But if the price comes down the Brewers might make a strong play for him.

"He's still out there," said Melvin. "As long as players are still out there, they're all viable options. We have (looked into him). He fits the profile. The guys (in the front office) were getting on me last night. I said I'd like to find a first baseman who can play first. We've had so many guys who haven't played first."

Melvin said it was unlikely that he'd find a first baseman -- either through free agency or a trade -- before the winter meetings end Thursday morning.

"You can only do what's available," he said. "We're pursuing anything or anybody, and there's a lot of them that haven't played first base for a long period of time... It's not a great list of guys at that position. It's a little surprising in some cases, but in some cases maybe not.

"I've said all along there's no guarantee you can fill the position in one year or two years. Certain positions just aren't that available. Some years they are; some years they aren't. We've gone through every name available. We've gone through the list for six weeks now."

[trwi7]

Brewers offered 4M with 2.5M in incentives. Mariners offered 6M with 7M in incentives. No brainer, take the pay cut or take the raise.

We're going to suck in 2014 anyways, so as long as we don't waste money or assets on a Loney/Davis I'm fine with letting Hart go.

[OnWISports]

With the Morrison trade, does that mean the Mariners are going to play Hart in the OF? I don't think that is a very good idea on their part.

If I were DM I would give SD a ring and see what the price of Headley is. He was rumored to be available earlier this off season. I think his left handed bat would fit nice and you could slide Aramis to first.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'd also ask about my favorite, Kyle Blanks. Can be as good or better than Hart if he ever stays healthy. Of course, that would be only if San Diego is willing to give up on him for minimal.

[mlloyd10]

Marlins interested in Weeks

[OnWISports]

Marlins interested in Weeks

No point in trading Weeks now unless you are worried about the money. As long as he stays healthy, someone will want his bat at the deadline.

[Kerb Hohl]

Agreed. No reason to trade him right now unless we are getting a similar "damaged goods" guy or unreasonably good return. Stock is low.

The only other argument might be that Mark A. takes the money they would save on Weeks (the 3 milion we don't ship to the other team or whatever) and puts it to good use.

[wichmae]

Marlins interested in Weeks

No point in trading Weeks now unless you are worried about the money. As long as he stays healthy, someone will want his bat at the deadline.

Zack Cox for Weeks? Austin Brice? Ill take either... Donovan Solano Weeks swap?

[chuckleslove]

MLB is going to ban home plate collisions pending MLBPA approval:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-bas ... a-approval

In a press conference with MLB executive vice president of baseball operations and Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a ban on home-plate collisions in which the baserunner plows over the catcher in an attempt to jar the ball loose.

"This is, I think, in response to a few issues that have arisen," Alderson said in the press conference. "One is just the general occurrence of injuries from these incidents at home plate that affects players, both runners and catchers -- and also the general concern about concussions that exists not only in baseball but throughout professional sports and amateur sports today. It's an emerging issue and one that we in baseball have to address as well as other sports. So that's part of the impetus for this rule change as well."

The deal won't be official for the 2014 season until the MLB Players Association approves it, but that is the final hurdle and MLB can compel a move if not approved by the MLBPA in time for the 2015 season. The rule will be formally presented to the MLBPA in January, but, again, even if they vote it down, MLB can unilaterally implement the rule for the 2015 season.

[Kerb Hohl]

Marlins interested in Weeks

No point in trading Weeks now unless you are worried about the money. As long as he stays healthy, someone will want his bat at the deadline.

Zack Cox for Weeks? Austin Brice? Ill take either... Donovan Solano Weeks swap?

I don't have the credentials to speak on the talent of Zack or Brice, but they don't look all that appealing.

Solano for Weeks would not be good assuming we'd kick in most of the salary. Yeah, if Attanasio wants to save some money then fine, but you're talking about giving a guy away that was an All Star for a guy that is about as good as Weeks was at his absolute worst (.650 OPS). He may provide some defensive help but if those are the options, just wait and see if Weeks miraculously rebounds. I'm fully expecting Weeks to stay down in the trash, but Solano is about as good as the "trash" version of Weeks.

Of course, if the Marlins take on almost all of the salary, then it'll still suck but I'll understand why Attanasio did it.

[wichmae]

No point in trading Weeks now unless you are worried about the money. As long as he stays healthy, someone will want his bat at the deadline.

Zack Cox for Weeks? Austin Brice? Ill take either... Donovan Solano Weeks swap?

I don't have the credentials to speak on the talent of Zack or Brice, but they don't look all that appealing.

Solano for Weeks would not be good assuming we'd kick in most of the salary. Yeah, if Attanasio wants to save some money then fine, but you're talking about giving a guy away that was an All Star for a guy that is about as good as Weeks was at his absolute worst (.650 OPS). He may provide some defensive help but if those are the options, just wait and see if Weeks miraculously rebounds. I'm fully expecting Weeks to stay down in the trash, but Solano is about as good as the "trash" version of Weeks.

Of course, if the Marlins take on almost all of the salary, then it'll still suck but I'll understand why Attanasio did it.

Its pretty well known Weeks has very little to no trade value. Getting Cox or Brice would be a haul for him. I would happily take Solano for him (granted we dont pay the salary)

[Kerb Hohl]

Well, all of those guys will likely never make a mark in the MLB outside of defensive replacements. Cox and Brice both could have talent and are young, who knows.

Here is how I see it.

A. If the Marlins take on all or most of Weeks' salary, yes, I'd take a bag of peanuts in return. Caveat being that if Attanasio does nothing in terms of spending money this year or anything tangible in the next few, as a fan, I'd have wished he'd have just held on to him to see if he miraculously recovers.

B. If the Brewers have to kick in anything more than 5 million, I'd rather just keep him. The chances of Weeks magically coming back to life and becoming a trade chip or contributor are higher than those guys being any sort of factor in the organization.

EDIT: Is Cox some sort of defensive guru? His Minor League offensive numbers look like garbage but he was once ranked in the top 100 prospects. Or is it just that he had the talent and probably hasn't ever realized it?

[coolhandluke121]

I'd keep Weeks for a little while. He might have one more nice hot streak in him. He's looked "done" before. Inconsistency is his norm. I don't think last year was conclusive.

Should have traded him last winter though. I think he had some value, as did Hart. If you want something to be really depressed about, consider how much trade/asset value each of these players had last winter (when the Brewers should have committed to a rebuild) compared to how much value they have now:

Yovani
Weeks
Hart
Ramirez
Braun
Axford

I guess that little run at the wild card in 2012 was nice, but I believe management lost sight of the big picture because of it. They should have gone young last winter. Now they've got little to show for all the impressive asset accumulation of the previous decade, other than one nice season in 2011.

[Kerb Hohl]

I hear you, and I'll put the normal disclaimer on that I'm always on board a full rebuild with top-shelf minor league talent.

But (and I know twirlz will blast this because he's a pessimist that this roster is any good, and he hasn't necessarily been wrong) you're talking in hindsight a bit.

Segura and Gomez may have exceeded expectations, but after they fell off a bit, they ended up with seasons that weren't far off from what one might have predicted last winter.

Last winter, should they have known that Hart would be out all year? We thought Braun had escaped any suspension. Weeks/Axford we were counting on rebounds, but I don't think they were putting money on it, just that rebounds were possible. Aramis, we know he's old, but they expected a relatively healthy season.

Brewers: 74 wins
Hart: Career/expected WAR = 3.5. What the Brewers got = -2.
Aramis: Career/expected WAR = 4 (he put up 5.7 the year before). What the Brewers got = 0 or 1.
Braun: Career/expected WAR = 7. What the Brewers got = 2 or 3? I guess I can find this number.

So there you go. Right there I've accounted for about 15 more wins. Now, nobody is expecting perfect health, but I was optimistic on the team for that reason right there. I didn't even account for possible rebound seasons for Weeks, Ax, or a better one from Yovani.

I don't disagree with your theory, but you're using some hindsight there. You, Twirlz, others wanted a rebuild last year...and I don't necessarily disagree with that. That's how I'd build a team. However, this offense should be stacked, and in a year where maybe only one guy misses really significant time and everyone else misses a few weeks(an average season IMO), they can win 90 games.

Here we are a year later and the offense is still pretty good IMO depending on what they do at 1B, but everyone's stock is low or they've left. I don't know what I'd do from here, but other than blowing a draft pick on Lohse, the silver lining is that nobody on our team at all is being paid beyond 2 years from now aside from Braun.

And before everybody says that sounds like the old "if everyone's healthy, this Bucks team could win 45" ya'll know that the leagues are different and it's apples/oranges. We had an MVP and multiple All Stars, a 4 seed in the playoffs can win, no need to tank, etc.

[coolhandluke121]

I hear you, and I'll put the normal disclaimer on that I'm always on board a full rebuild with top-shelf minor league talent.

But (and I know twirlz will blast this because he's a pessimist that this roster is any good, and he hasn't necessarily been wrong) you're talking in hindsight a bit.

Segura and Gomez may have exceeded expectations, but after they fell off a bit, they ended up with seasons that weren't far off from what one might have predicted last winter.

Last winter, should they have known that Hart would be out all year? We thought Braun had escaped any suspension. Weeks/Axford we were counting on rebounds, but I don't think they were putting money on it, just that rebounds were possible. Aramis, we know he's old, but they expected a relatively healthy season.

Brewers: 74 wins
Hart: Career/expected WAR = 3.5. What the Brewers got = -2.
Aramis: Career/expected WAR = 4 (he put up 5.7 the year before). What the Brewers got = 0 or 1.
Braun: Career/expected WAR = 7. What the Brewers got = 2 or 3? I guess I can find this number.

So there you go. Right there I've accounted for about 15 more wins. Now, nobody is expecting perfect health, but I was optimistic on the team for that reason right there. I didn't even account for possible rebound seasons for Weeks, Ax, or a better one from Yovani.

I don't disagree with your theory, but you're using some hindsight there. You, Twirlz, others wanted a rebuild last year...and I don't necessarily disagree with that. That's how I'd build a team. However, this offense should be stacked, and in a year where maybe only one guy misses really significant time and everyone else misses a few weeks(an average season IMO), they can win 90 games.

Here we are a year later and the offense is still pretty good IMO depending on what they do at 1B, but everyone's stock is low or they've left. I don't know what I'd do from here, but other than blowing a draft pick on Lohse, the silver lining is that nobody on our team at all is being paid beyond 2 years from now aside from Braun.

It's some hindsight, of course, but I was calling for a total rebuild last winter too, so it's not obnoxious, hypocritical hindsight. I've been pretty consistent. Ironically, at this point I'm not even in favor of a tear-it-down rebuild because they can't get much in return for most of their trade chips anyway. May as well give them a chance to rehabilitate themselves.

I can understand the temptation to try to compete each of the last two years. But you have to stay level-headed and rational about it despite the temptation. The GM and owner should be thinking like actuaries, not like fans. Look at the steady decline of Weeks and Hart in terms of athleticism and health. Look at the the scouting reports on Yo; people predicted years ago that he would have a relatively short prime. Weigh the odds that Braun was really innocent against the odds that he got off on a technicality. Ramirez was very healthy in 2012, but you had to know that it was overwhelmingly likely that his production would go down while his salary went way, way up.

Rather than looking at their successful 2012 seasons as things that could be sustained, they should have looked at their utter lack of proven depth in the rotation, the ages of each player, their escalating salaries, and other circumstances like declining athleticism or PED scandals. I think they looked the gift horse in the mouth. All those guys gave them a great chance to get excellent trade value, and instead they kept them all one year too long -- like they always do.

With the expanded playoffs, you can get in and anything can happen, so I don't mind going for it if you've got no options to cash in your chips and rebuild -- as is the case in 2014. But I think they turned a blind eye to all the potential pitfalls of 2013. Several things were bound to go horribly wrong. Turns out more things went horribly wrong than even a pessimist would predict, but their exceptionally bad luck doesn't excuse the fact that they did (in my opinion) a poor job of risk-reward assessment in the first place. And again, I don't think it's just hindsight because I was saying the same thing last winter.