1990-1992 Michael Jordan Shot Chart

[ElGee]

Great work Dipper.

I'm having a bit of trouble accepting the on/off splits though. Statistically, it's very unlikely that this is from sampling bias. There is variation in on/off numbers (not to mention huge confounding variables), but it's a number we have 17 years of data for (~500 team seasons). What stands out to me is that based on the numbers you posted here, the 1990-1992 Jordan-less Chicago Bulls would basically be the worst basketball team of all time (-26.5/100)

This is entirely incompatible with limited in/out data and what happened in 1994-95 without Jordan. And while the roster turnover between those two teams has been well documented, someone's going to have to explain to me how Kukoc, Kerr, Myers and Wennington replacing Paxson, Purdue, King and Levingston can make the difference between the worst team we've ever seen -- by an outlying mark, no less -- and a steady 3 SRS team.

[Dipper 13]

What stands out to me is that based on the numbers you posted here, the 1990-1992 Jordan-less Chicago Bulls would basically be the worst basketball team of all time (-26.5/100)

Yes I couldn't believe it either. Perhaps I made a mistake? It's up to the NBA to release the pre-1997 data.

[aol4532]

Who were Jordan's defenders during these times?

[Rerisen]

The stat which impressed me the most maybe: only around 20% of clutch buckets assisted. Its in the triangle. Awesome.

Well Jordan's attitude in the clutch was, "Throw out that 'triangle stuff'". Pretty sure there is a quote almost exactly like that from him.

[Gregoire]

The stat which impressed me the most maybe: only around 20% of clutch buckets assisted. Its in the triangle. Awesome.

In looking at playoffs only that percentage goes down to 16%.


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698&start=30#p37647437

Yes, all these stats are incredible since its playoffs (!), most difficult era in basketball and a huge sample size (3 straight playoffs).

[Swagalicious]

The stat which impressed me the most maybe: only around 20% of clutch buckets assisted. Its in the triangle. Awesome.

In looking at playoffs only that percentage goes down to 16%.


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698&start=30#p37647437

Yes, all these stats are incredible since its playoffs (!), most difficult era in basketball and a huge sample size (3 straight playoffs).

Wut

You mean the era after the Celtics, Lakers and Pistons got old, Ewing was injured in when he faced MJ and Hakeem wasn't in the right circumstances to even get to the Finals until Jordan took his hiatus? That era?

I think MJ is GOAT and I'm a big fan of his but most difficult era in basketball certainly isn't an argument that could be used to prop him um

[Gregoire]

In looking at playoffs only that percentage goes down to 16%.


viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698&start=30#p37647437

Yes, all these stats are incredible since its playoffs (!), most difficult era in basketball and a huge sample size (3 straight playoffs).

Wut

You mean the era after the Celtics, Lakers and Pistons got old, Ewing was injured in when he faced MJ and Hakeem wasn't in the right circumstances to even get to the Finals until Jordan took his hiatus? That era?

I think MJ is GOAT and I'm a big fan of his but most difficult era in basketball certainly isn't an argument that could be used to prop him um

Which era was better by your point?

[ceiling raiser]

Yes, all these stats are incredible since its playoffs (!), most difficult era in basketball and a huge sample size (3 straight playoffs).

Wut

You mean the era after the Celtics, Lakers and Pistons got old, Ewing was injured in when he faced MJ and Hakeem wasn't in the right circumstances to even get to the Finals until Jordan took his hiatus? That era?

I think MJ is GOAT and I'm a big fan of his but most difficult era in basketball certainly isn't an argument that could be used to prop him um

Which era was better by your point?

I'd say mid-late 60s (before rapid expansion, thanks to the smaller league resulting in more highly concentrated talent), post-merger NBA to the end of the 80s (superteams, infusion of more talent added than depth reduction due to expansions), and 07-08 to the present (players who have grown up with the 3 from the start are in the league now, analytics have improved defenses, international scouting is excellent now) are better. I respect the opinions of those who disagree, though.

I appreciate all the eras though, it's a relatively young league (compared to some other major sports, at least), so there's not a huge difference in my opinion post-shotclock between most seasons.

[lorak]

Great work Dipper.

I'm having a bit of trouble accepting the on/off splits though. Statistically, it's very unlikely that this is from sampling bias. There is variation in on/off numbers (not to mention huge confounding variables), but it's a number we have 17 years of data for (~500 team seasons). What stands out to me is that based on the numbers you posted here, the 1990-1992 Jordan-less Chicago Bulls would basically be the worst basketball team of all time (-26.5/100)

I'll add that we have two years of full data for Jordan in Chicago. Of course he was worse then and Bulls probably better than in 1990-1993, but still difference is too big. I mean, Bulls efficiency differential in 1997 without Jordan was +6.4 and +2.6 in 1998, so it's far away from Dipper's -26.5.

[ceiling raiser]

Great work Dipper.

I'm having a bit of trouble accepting the on/off splits though. Statistically, it's very unlikely that this is from sampling bias. There is variation in on/off numbers (not to mention huge confounding variables), but it's a number we have 17 years of data for (~500 team seasons). What stands out to me is that based on the numbers you posted here, the 1990-1992 Jordan-less Chicago Bulls would basically be the worst basketball team of all time (-26.5/100)

I'll add that we have two years of full data for Jordan in Chicago. Of course he was worse then and Bulls probably better than in 1990-1993, but still difference is too big. I mean, Bulls efficiency differential in 1997 without Jordan was +6.4 and +2.6 in 1998, so it's far away from Dipper's -26.5.

I had some free time and put together this spreadsheet by checking each game on B-R:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing

Here is the key data (see footer rows):

Sample Avg
Bulls ORtg 113.1
Bulls DRtg 105.1
Net +8.0

Team Season Avg
Bulls ORtg 114.2
Bulls DRtg 106.1
Net +8.1

Opp Season Avg
Opp ORtg 107.2
Opp DRtg 108.9
Net -1.7

League Average ORtg/DRtg 108.5

Maybe someone who has some spare time can come up with a good way to adjust Dipper 13's On/Off numbers based on the above values.

[Gregoire]

Wut

You mean the era after the Celtics, Lakers and Pistons got old, Ewing was injured in when he faced MJ and Hakeem wasn't in the right circumstances to even get to the Finals until Jordan took his hiatus? That era?

I think MJ is GOAT and I'm a big fan of his but most difficult era in basketball certainly isn't an argument that could be used to prop him um

Which era was better by your point?

I'd say mid-late 60s (before rapid expansion, thanks to the smaller league resulting in more highly concentrated talent), post-merger NBA to the end of the 80s (superteams, infusion of more talent added than depth reduction due to expansions), and 07-08 to the present (players who have grown up with the 3 from the start are in the league now, analytics have improved defenses, international scouting is excellent now) are better. I respect the opinions of those who disagree, though.

I appreciate all the eras though, it's a relatively young league (compared to some other major sports, at least), so there's not a huge difference in my opinion post-shotclock between most seasons.

Sorry for off-top, but I rank them:
1.Late 80s
2.Early 90s
3.Late 60s
4.Late 2000s
5.early 80s
6.Early 00s
7.Early 70s
8.Early 2010s
9.late 70s
10. early 60s.

[ennui]

wow, those per 48 in the clutch and plus minus stats are mind boggling

[ceiling raiser]

Which era was better by your point?

I'd say mid-late 60s (before rapid expansion, thanks to the smaller league resulting in more highly concentrated talent), post-merger NBA to the end of the 80s (superteams, infusion of more talent added than depth reduction due to expansions), and 07-08 to the present (players who have grown up with the 3 from the start are in the league now, analytics have improved defenses, international scouting is excellent now) are better. I respect the opinions of those who disagree, though.

I appreciate all the eras though, it's a relatively young league (compared to some other major sports, at least), so there's not a huge difference in my opinion post-shotclock between most seasons.

Sorry for off-top, but I rank them:
1.Late 80s
2.Early 90s
3.Late 60s
4.Late 2000s
5.early 80s
6.Early 00s
7.Early 70s
8.Early 2010s
9.late 70s
10. early 60s.

Interesting, I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

[Gregoire]

So for a 40 minute game (puts it better in context for me personally) that would be
65/10/6.7/4.3/2.7

Not sure what is more insane - 65 pts @ 65eFG%, 10 rbds for an SG, ast/TO ratio of 4.5 or the 4.3 stls + 2.7 blocks. It's mindboggling in every single aspect of the game and defense outside of boxscore as well apparently.
I always thought LeBrons 09/10 had a good shot at GOAT clutch but MJ's numbers are absolutely unbelievable. There is no way anyone will get close to that ever. Does someone have an excel sheet to calculate the PER for that - it's probably in the 60s.

MJ must have been totally phoning it in in non-clutch time if he can do that when required.

Yes, Lebron IMO right after Jordan all-time if we talk about clutch effiency and production.

[SuperJobs]

These numbers so awesome, than its difficult to believe on it...

[Okada]

74% at the rim over 3 years? Holy Jesus.

This makes everyone freaking out over LeBron's 72% (I think that's what it was) last year more interesting.

[PCProductions]

74% at the rim over 3 years? Holy Jesus.

This makes everyone freaking out over LeBron's 72% (I think that's what it was) last year more interesting.

It was 75.6%, FYI.

[Okada]

It was 75.6%, FYI.

For LeBron?

Oh well, I'm still more impressed by Jordan doing it for 3 years as a guard.

[Gregoire]

74% at the rim over 3 years? Holy Jesus.

This makes everyone freaking out over LeBron's 72% (I think that's what it was) last year more interesting.

Look at his clutch numbers in the 3 straight playoffs: its separate from RS games and obviously without any supposed highlight bias. Its awesome!

[Gregoire]

Its would be very interesting to do "synergy stats" for strictly playoffs (90-92) like for Shaq. Playoffs are more important and it would be without highlight bias at all.