2014 Discussion Thread

Kerb Hohl · Post #221 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:42 pm

Papi was 37 and an ill-timed piss test away from being suspended. Pedroia and Ellsbury just missed extended periods of 2012. Napoli was a walking injury (still is). Jon Lester came off a garbage season. Buchholz had question marks of whether he could pitch again. Lester was a burden. Their bullpen acquisitions died before the season started. Both Buchholz and Lester had "Gallardo-esque" warning signs.

I mean, in your actuarial theory, I guess that may be the opposite as in "everything looks bad" going into the season, but if you've got the players, you go for it.

We had Ryan Braun in his prime. I agree I'd maybe have retooled in early 2012 or something but given the roster we had, I wouldn't have batted an eye if we were the #2 offense in the NL with an adequate pitching staff in 2013. Would I have put a ton of money on it? No, but the players were there to be a top 5 NL team that admittedly didn't have the pitching for October.

I mean, in 2012, the Packers didn't have as many season ending injuries as they did in 2010. In their actuarial mindset, should they have predicted a Rodgers injury and trade away Clay rather than pay him, trade Shields/Raji for late draft picks, etc. just because there is a chance that those guys get hurt based on "well, it was better last year so let's expect the worst this year."

No, they have Aaron Rodgers. Now, they have a younger team and a different mindset than the Brewers but I don't blame them at all for paying the vets they could afford.

If some MLB guy didn't break into a car and steal some records, Ryan Braun would have manned LF for 150 games last year. Give him the seasons Segura, Gomez, and Khris Davis had and a healthy Hart/A-Ram or a better Weeks and they're in the playoffs.

About the only thing that was actually bad was giving up the draft pick for Lohse. Yeah, if they had dealt away their guys last winter we'd be in better shape, but given that they didn't, that's about the only bad thing in terms of payroll. We haven't wasted more money since. If we deal Lohse if there are struggles again this year for a solid prospect, it'll nearly be a wash.

coolhandluke121 · Post #222 » by **coolhandluke121** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 6:03 pm

I think we both see both sides of it. I just feel more strongly that selling off some veteran talent was more likely to be profitable in the long run.

Kerb Hohl · Post #223 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 6:14 pm

I don't disagree. I've said this about 1000 times because I don't want to get mistaken for a win-now type Bucks fan, but I am definitely one that likes to build with young pitching and trade of vets when their value is high. So I agree with you there.

That said, I just think this team could have contended and still isn't that bad (but probably not good enough). Of course, your prediction was correct last year and this year's team I'm not going to be incredibly optimistic about, though there are elements of what we had going into last year. Thing is, this year even I won't predict good health for the offense, but if they have it, they can be a playoff team.

The fact that the division last year and now this year has 3 good teams and a smart GM running the 4th doesn't help.

wichmae · Post #224 » by **wichmae** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:26 pm

Really good posts KH. Im in the same wheelhouse as you are. Especially if they can land Ike without giving up Thorny.

Kerb Hohl · Post #225 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:29 pm

Yeah, I felt good about it last year but this year I'm indifferent. I see the potential but I'm much less optimistic about it.

wichmae · Post #226 » by **wichmae** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:33 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:Yeah, I felt good about it last year but this year I'm indifferent. I see the potential but I'm much less optimistic about it.

Any smart businessman knows you always sell high and buy low. No matter the good. I see where the success' can be and definitely see our faults.

coolhandluke121 · Post #227 » by **coolhandluke121** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 9:46 pm

I hope nobody thinks I'm arguing that they should be sellers this year. I'm arguing that it's too late to be sellers, because they missed the perfect time to be sellers last winter. Now they're stuck trying to build a contender out of an imbalanced, deeply flawed roster with no payroll flexibility and little hope of much help from the minors.

I could see it working, and I'm definitely not giving up on this year. But holy sh*t, it would be nice to see what they could have gotten for all their older vets last winter. A lot of guys played really well in that late wild-card push in 2012 and still had value. Every single one of them has seen their value plummet since then. It sucks.

ETA: I guess this is the epitome of a situation where I need to stop thinking about it and just be a fan for once, because they could be good. But it's still frustrating.

Kerb Hohl · Post #228 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:19 pm

Nah, I definitely see where you're coming from CHL. Last year if they sold when a lot of the stocks were high, that would have been great. And you're right, this year, everyone's stock is low. I don't know if I'd trade many of them. Nothing we can do really.

Kerb Hohl · Post #229 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:43 pm

Loney back to the Rays. Bullet dodged (wouldn't have minded it on a short deal).

Post #230 » by **MickeyDavis** » Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:19 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:Loney back to the Rays. Bullet dodged (wouldn't have minded it on a short deal).

3/21

wichmae · Post #231 » by **wichmae** » Sat Dec 14, 2013 2:13 am

MickeyDavis wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:Loney back to the Rays. Bullet dodged (wouldn't have minded it on a short deal).

3/21

Its a ton of cash for a very limited player.

mlloyd10 · Post #232 » by **mlloyd10** » Sat Dec 14, 2013 2:56 am

So its either going to be davis, morris, Francisco or a player move to play 1b this year

Sent from my SPH-L710 using RealGM Forums mobile app

OnWISports · Post #233 » by **OnWISports** » Sat Dec 14, 2013 6:42 am

Hard to say if the Loney signing was a stretch. There seems to be a lot more money floating around with the new TV deal. Prime example just happened today, Omar Infante singing for 4 year 30 million. It's also hard to argue with the Rays and their roster construction. They seem to know where to spend their money.

El Duderino · Post #234 » by **El Duderino** » Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:57 am

wichmae wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:Loney back to the Rays. Bullet dodged (wouldn't have minded it on a short deal).

3/21

Its a ton of cash for a very limited player.

Ton of cash?

Hey, i'm glad the Brewers didn't give three years to Loney, but people really need understand that the salary structure in baseball today is changing rapidly with the huge influx of money from both new national and local TV contracts. Seven million dollars per is almost nothing now for an everyday player who can be just decent.

Andrew Friedman, the GM in Tampa is arguably the best in the game and for him, he sees what is happening money wise.

Captain Erv · Post #235 » by **Captain Erv** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:17 am

Interest in Michael Young. Bleh.

trwi7 · Post #236 » by **trwi7** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 2:14 am

Interest in Brewers. Bleh.

Captain Erv · Post #237 » by **Captain Erv** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 2:16 am

trwi7 wrote:Interest in Brewers. Bleh.

I don't know about you, twirl, but I need to have a hobby in summer besides pounding beers and getting hands-y with girls in bikinis at the local pool.

trwi7 · Post #238 » by **trwi7** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 2:18 am

Pool at my apartment opens on Memorial Day and stays open until Labor Day. I'll be spending mucho time there with the way the Brewers are building.

Kerb Hohl · Post #239 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 3:38 pm

Our little twirly is growing up right before our very eyes.

Kerb Hohl · Post #240 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:33 pm

I am a bit "down" on the projections of Morris/Halton or whatever platoon we put out there (I don't mind Francisco in a platoon situation).

Somehow, we may spend money to make it worse than even my pessimistic projection of Morris/Halton by lighting money on fire and signing Michael Young.