Is Lebron protecting his FG%?

[kulo]

I'm a Lebron fan but I'm convinced he's protecting his FG%. I just watched him pass up at least 5 wide open 3s (even a corner 3). I understand good shot selection but this is ridiculous. It's not like he can't shoot them and his % hasn't recently been bad so it can't be a confidence issue.

First let's be clear: It's hard to imagine he's actually chasing FG%. If he's chasing %, it's going to be a number like TS% which factors everything in. There were players in the past (Wilt) who chased FG% and ignored other things (like FT%), but such behavior on a team with modern stat leanings wouldn't make sense.

Now, here's the question: When is it you think he started protecting his % ?

If the answer is any time in the past 3 years, that's weird because his scoring per minute is right in range where it's been his whole time in Miami.

If the answer is when he came to Miami, that's weird because he shot a lower % when he came to Miami.

See what I'm saying here: If the trend were glaring, we'd see something more clear in the data. We don't.

That doesn't mean his judgment is perfect by any means, but imperfect judgment is not chasing stats.

Let's be real here. I guarantee that Lebron doesn't know what TS is or even cares about what it is. It's clearly FG%

Gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you are trolling.

[TheMidnightSun]

[quote="heatwillbeback"I do think he cares about his percentage, but caring about efficiency isn't an issue.[/quote]

brilliantly put

ot: i thought this same thing 2 years ago

[sabonis]

his average 3pt attempts in Miami is 3.13 in 239 games, this season he's attempting 3.05 per game

so the answer to your question, statistically is: No.

This has nothing to do with statistics and everything to do with the type of shots he's passing up. If you can't understand this then I can't help you.

you are missing the point. You are saying he is protecting his FG% because he's been receiving compliments about it in the media and that he's trying to prove he has improved.

but he isn't trying to do that because his attempt numbers isn't much lower than the last 3 years. So he isn't paying special attention to it. He probably has been skipping those open 3's so that his better 3pt shooting team mates can knock down an even more wide open look. He has been doing this for 4 years, not only this year.

[KiDeezy]

Without a doubt he is protecting his fg%. It's irritating to watch at times knowing he could easily drop 35+ on 48-50%.

[Don Draper]

you are missing the point. You are saying he is protecting his FG% because he's been receiving compliments about it in the media and that he's trying to prove he has improved.

I think you're missing point b/c I never said the bolded.

but he isn't trying to do that because his attempt numbers isn't much lower than the last 3 years. So he isn't paying special attention to it. He probably has been skipping those open 3's so that his better 3pt shooting team mates can knock down an even more wide open look. He has been doing this for 4 years, not only this year.

So you don't understand. Lebron's 3 point shooting has been getting better for the past 3-4 seasons, therefore it would logical to assume he would be more comfortable shooting more wide open 3s. Remember I'm talking about WIDE OPEN threes. He's currently at 43% for the year. Is it really that crazy to expect a 43% 3 point shooter who takes 3 a game to attempt a wide open three?


Lastly, I watched the game. He wasn't passing up these shots for better shots. He was just simply passing them up. Rewatch the 3rd quarter of tonights game if you have league pass and you'll see it for yourself.

This isn't rocket science.

[Rapcity_11]

Yeah, he is. It's obvious IMO. Only matters if happens in the playoffs though.

[JesusHCoxMd]

LeBron just can't do nothing right according to RealGM.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm a Lebron fan but I'm convinced he's protecting his FG%. I just watched him pass up at least 5 wide open 3s (even a corner 3). I understand good shot selection but this is ridiculous. It's not like he can't shoot them and his % hasn't recently been bad so it can't be a confidence issue.

First let's be clear: It's hard to imagine he's actually chasing FG%. If he's chasing %, it's going to be a number like TS% which factors everything in. There were players in the past (Wilt) who chased FG% and ignored other things (like FT%), but such behavior on a team with modern stat leanings wouldn't make sense.

Your post is good, but Lebron and Wade after games aren't going like "Omgz bro I had a 66% TS this game" in the locker room..that kind of talk is still reserved for FG%.

So...you think LeBron is seriously going up to Wade and saying "Omgz bro I had % FG this game"?

[Doctor MJ]

Let's be real here. I guarantee that Lebron doesn't know what TS is or even cares about what it is. It's clearly FG%

I'm not saying he knows particular stats, I'm trying to be real with those talking about him chasing efficiency. Dude's seen a drastic reduction in his mid-range attempts while without reducing 3 point attempts from his first year in Miami.

If you want to maximize FG%, this is a dumbass way to do it.

If you want to maximize FG%, you're going to get yelled at by Spoelstra. Which you might think would be minor for a star of LeBron's stature, but the only reason he's changed at all is because he's been listening to smart people. Smart people who don't give a damn about FG%...because smart people don't give a damn about FG%.

Again, none of this means that TS% is LeBron's holy grail, but LeBron very clearly knows that 3's are smarter than long 2's, and that inside shots and free throws are smart. And all that's another way of saying that TS% is smart.

[CoachKobe]

So...you think LeBron is seriously going up to Wade and saying "Omgz bro I had % FG this game"?

eh, yes?

“It's like a competition me and D-Wade are having right now about who can shoot 50 percent, in each and every game,” James said.
...
“I came in after the game, I saw 9-for-19 and I missed that last long three, I felt I could have gotten into the lane and got a layup. I've got to make up for it.”
...
“We talk about it all the time. It sucks at times, but it's who we are.”

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... efficiency

[Doctor MJ]

First let's be clear: It's hard to imagine he's actually chasing FG%. If he's chasing %, it's going to be a number like TS% which factors everything in. There were players in the past (Wilt) who chased FG% and ignored other things (like FT%), but such behavior on a team with modern stat leanings wouldn't make sense.

Now, here's the question: When is it you think he started protecting his % ?

If the answer is any time in the past 3 years, that's weird because his scoring per minute is right in range where it's been his whole time in Miami.

If the answer is when he came to Miami, that's weird because he shot a lower % when he came to Miami.

See what I'm saying here: If the trend were glaring, we'd see something more clear in the data. We don't.

That doesn't mean his judgment is perfect by any means, but imperfect judgment is not chasing stats.

I disagree that it has to be glaring. It can be subtle. I remember an article where Lebron said something like he was trying to get his fg% to over 60% or something. I can't find the article, but I'm sure someone will post it.

Regardless, what I saw tonight was very disappointing. Maybe he was gunning for a triple double or something, but it was clear he was passing up wide open shot for seemingly no reason. Lebron is great player but he's going to have to take those shots against good/smart defenses to keep them honest. After the Spurs series he of all people should know this.

3rd quarter the Cavs went to a prevent defense and it worked well b/c they cut off Miami's penetration in the half court.

Let me put it this way:

What you see with your eyeball is something based on 2 or 3 plays in a game. It's only meaningful if that trend is continued consistently over the course of the season, and if it is, then it's going to show up in the stats.

If it doesn't shot up in the stats to the point where there's something clearly there it has nothing to do with "subtlety", it's just minor. Subtle things can be of major importance, but anything you can't see in the numbers is minor in the sense of something like FG%. As stated, his judgement may not be perfect, but if what we're seeing is him actually maintaining his scoring per minute, then that means the improvement in efficiency is strong enough to overcome the difference in shooting volume which makes it more than worth it.

[snomeister]

People are just nitpicking, trying to find a way to criticize him. He's the best player alive

[Doctor MJ]

So...you think LeBron is seriously going up to Wade and saying "Omgz bro I had % FG this game"?

eh, yes?

“It's like a competition me and D-Wade are having right now about who can shoot 50 percent, in each and every game,” James said.
...
“I came in after the game, I saw 9-for-19 and I missed that last long three, I felt I could have gotten into the lane and got a layup. I've got to make up for it.”
...
“We talk about it all the time. It sucks at times, but it's who we are.”

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... efficiency

Ha. Okay, you've got a point, but I object to the fanboy-esque attitude you ascribe to these guys and to the implication that they aren't factoring in things like free throws into the mix.

What we've got is a situation where each player fixating on their PPG would be utterly toxic, so instead they challenge each other to not waste. If and when we see clear indications that possessions are being wasted because no one dares to shoot, it will have gone too far. As we stand right now though, the obvious statistical conclusion is that these guys are working for more efficient shots.

[Don Draper]

Let me put it this way:

What you see with your eyeball is something based on 2 or 3 plays in a game. It's only meaningful if that trend is continued consistently over the course of the season, and if it is, then it's going to show up in the stats.

I'm not arguing whether or not it's meaningful or not, I'm just saying it's occurring. Just b/c it isn't rational or doesn't affect his numbers it doesn't mean it isn't happening. For the record, I've thought I've noticed this before but this is first time it seemed to be blatant.

If it doesn't shot up in the stats to the point where there's something clearly there it has nothing to do with "subtlety", it's just minor. Subtle things can be of major importance, but anything you can't see in the numbers is minor in the sense of something like FG%. As stated, his judgement may not be perfect, but if what we're seeing is him actually maintaining his scoring per minute, then that means the improvement in efficiency is strong enough to overcome the difference in shooting volume which makes it more than worth it.

Again I'm talking FG% and as we both realize his actions need not be logical. Again subtle things can also be of minor importance and a lack of movement in his efficiency doesn't prove it isn't happening.

I just have a hard time understanding why a player who is shooting 43% on 3 attempts per game passes up wide open 3s multiple times in a quarter. There are only a few rational explanations and the mostly likely one IMO is he's looking out for his FG%.

[52-12-7]

People are just nitpicking, trying to find a way to criticize him. He's the best player alive

Nobody is arguing whether he is best player or not. The arguement is that he is inflating his stats by protecting his fg%. It's just like an offensive rebounder purposely tipping the ball around the hoop to pad extra rebound to his stats. He has become a serious stat-whore.

For one, he stopped shooting end of quarter heaves. Only reason not to shoot those shots are to protect fg%. There is absolutely no risk to shooting those shots. You can only gain 3 points which can be a deciding factor in winning a game. Not only that, like the OP pointed out, he is turning down WIDE OPEN jump shots. I mean, reason you pass the damn ball is to get an open shot. That is the ultimate goal of passing. There is no other logical explanation to why he is playing like that, other than to protect his stats. To me, it is very pathetic that the best player in the world is inflating his stats to make himself look better in the statsheets.

[bballcool34]

Ha. Okay, you've got a point, but I object to the fanboy-esque attitude you ascribe to these guys and to the implication that they aren't factoring in things like free throws into the mix.

What we've got is a situation where each player fixating on their PPG would be utterly toxic, so instead they challenge each other to not waste. If and when we see clear indications that possessions are being wasted because no one dares to shoot, it will have gone too far. As we stand right now though, the obvious statistical conclusion is that these guys are working for more efficient shots.

That was the exact quote I was basing my 'omgz' statement on. And yeah, of course they're not as fanboyish about it, that wasn't meant to be taken 100% serious..

I think the 3 ball is less effort for players a lot of time and if you're good at shooting it, which Lebron is and has imrproved on, then yeah it's a good shot, which is why he takes it. I don't think it's him thinking well you know the three pointer is a much better shot than a lot of two pointers or any real analysis of that sort. Not that he's not capable of that or anything, just that when you play a lot of basketball, you naturally practice the 3 ball. It's easier to set up from the same area compared to a 2 point shot and I think that's a big part why players fall so in love with it.

But like I said, I agreed with your statement, I just don't think anyone is bragging about TS%---> they're bragging about FG%, 3PT%, FT%---> adds up to the same thing obviously.

[batmana]

He clearly is protecting his FG% and while it is no problem in 90% of the games, it becomes a problem when they face the Pacers and he is still thinking of his statline instead of trying to win the game. He is not doing it in the playoffs, though. After all, the Heat (any team really) are not going to win every regular-season game so it doesn't matter that much. Some teams will simply have an off night, others will rest their players, and the Heat will lose when LeBron refuses to take 30 shots to keep them in the game.

FTR, I didn't see the Cavs game so I can't comment on those particular shots.

The funny thing is, LeBron fans are giving the reasons he's doing it but that doesn't mean he's not doing it.

And yes, LeBron and Wade totally discuss/compare their FG% after games in the locker-room, they've even admitted it.

[MikeM]

The real reason is he's bored with the regular season so he plays little games with himself and his teammates to keep himself interested and present new challenges to himself.

This will all go away in the playoffs when he does everything possible to win.

[ndnow]

When he passes up a three and the Heat get a shot in the paint or a dunk you can't say he's protection his FG%

[LBJ-ITALY]

Lebron loses his jump shooting confidence, but he should know that if you don't take them you will never regain your shooting confidence!