3rd Place in the east

[Ruzious]

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.

[fishercob]

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.

I understand. They're going to keep going with the amateur draft after this season though, so huzzah! Kidding aside, Wall and Beal are babies by NBA standards. Paul George was the only young player who starred for one of the final four teams last year. There is both time and opportunity to improve the roster significantly.

[Ruzious]

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.

I understand. They're going to keep going with the amateur draft after this season though, so huzzah! Kidding aside, Wall and Beal are babies by NBA standards. Paul George was the only young player who starred for one of the final four teams last year. There is both time and opportunity to improve the roster significantly.

The babies aren't getting paid like babies. But the real problem is - we have a GM who's going to likely get more job security because they won't get that 2nd half of the first round pick. Is it too late for Joseph Heller to write a sequel? Catch 44?

[montestewart]

fishercob, I agree with you that there are many avenues to a return to true contender status after 30+ years, or even a return to a team that appear competent and ascending upward, without built-in physical or payroll/roster fragility. Some of these paths may be very reasonable and legitimate hopes, some may be ridiculous long shots.

For me (and probably for many others) it's hard to see how any these paths can successfully play out until EG is out of the picture. To me, he is like a big pimple on my upper cheek, and no matter which way I am turned and what I am looking at, I still see him in the picture.

Once EG is gone, I think I will probably briefly embrace an irrational optimism, wherein all things are possible, before settling into a "Finally! Now let's see what GM [whoever] and coach [whoever] can do!"

[nate33]

I think "pretty good" veteran teams without a top tier superstar tend to stay "pretty good" and rarely move up to "contender" status.

[Dat2U]

The only thing I'm selling is that there will be other opportunities to improve the team other than the scenario nate laid out. I'm not disagreeing with anything you say about wanting Ernie gone, minute loads, etc.

With Booker out of Witt's doghouse and contributing, we are slowly arriving at a point where many hoped we'd be when the season was starting -- a solid 7 man rotation with Booker and Webster capably contributing off the bench, and the opportunity to play Porter with good players so as to get him up to speed sooner rather than later. The error margin is still razor thin and contributions from anyone outside our top 7 are unreliable. Nothing to celebrate over. No clear and easy path to huge improvement. But enjoyable to watch with hope for the future if things break right.

Exactly. When your margin of error is that small to begin with, it's really unrealistic to assume that things will break exactly as one would hope because it never does. Beyond no clear and easy path to improvement, there's no clear and easy way to even maintain what we have now, which is basically a .435 winning percentage. Is this really enjoyable, or does it offer just enough tease to wet the pallet in anticipation for more?

What happens if we make the playoffs? We give the good hard fight for 6 games and were left heading into the offseason with 3 1/2 legitimate NBA players with Wall, Beal, Webster & a broken down Nene remaining on the roster and Gortat & Ariza looking for huge paydays. 8 empty roster spots, no 1st rd pick and pretty much the only guys we'll be signing (er, overpaying) is our own free agents.

IMO the future is very bleak if this all-in for the '13-'14 season actually works and Ernie & Witt keep their jobs for at least the time being.

[fishercob]

The only thing I'm selling is that there will be other opportunities to improve the team other than the scenario nate laid out. I'm not disagreeing with anything you say about wanting Ernie gone, minute loads, etc.

With Booker out of Witt's doghouse and contributing, we are slowly arriving at a point where many hoped we'd be when the season was starting -- a solid 7 man rotation with Booker and Webster capably contributing off the bench, and the opportunity to play Porter with good players so as to get him up to speed sooner rather than later. The error margin is still razor thin and contributions from anyone outside our top 7 are unreliable. Nothing to celebrate over. No clear and easy path to huge improvement. But enjoyable to watch with hope for the future if things break right.

Exactly. When your margin of error is that small to begin with, it's really unrealistic to assume that things will break exactly as one would hope because it never does. Beyond no clear and easy path to improvement, there's no clear and easy way to even maintain what we have now, which is basically a .435 winning percentage. Is this really enjoyable, or does it offer just enough tease to wet the pallet in anticipation for more?

What happens if we make the playoffs? We give the good hard fight for 6 games and were left heading into the offseason with 3 1/2 legitimate NBA players with Wall, Beal, Webster & a broken down Nene remaining on the roster and Gortat & Ariza looking for huge paydays. 8 empty roster spots, no 1st rd pick and pretty much the only guys we'll be signing (er, overpaying) is our own free agents.

IMO the future is very bleak if this all-in for the '13-'14 season actually works and Ernie & Witt keep their jobs for at least the time being.

On enjoyability, I was talking about two things: (1) aesthetics -- when the Wizards are healthy and playing well, they're fun for me to watch (2) competitiveness -- winning is better than losing. In the moment, mediocrity feels better than sucking. Anyone who has played sports or competed in anything knows that being terrible and getting embarrassed feels horrendous.

On a personal note, I've done a lot of work on living in the moment over the years. Much as I would like to be, I am not an owner or executive with the Wizards. I am a fan -- a big one -- and my fandom is a form of entertainment. So when the stars (and injury report) align such that the Wizards are going good and putting the hurt on good teams, I don't think it's healthy or productive -- for me at least -- to grouse that it's unsustainable or fools gold or whatever. That's not to say that I don't like to opine and speculate about ways to improve the team and leaders I'd like to see replaced.

I admit that I find it mildly annoying that whenever I post about basically anything positive related to the team, it's met with responses that seem somewhat driven by anger and not as much by thought. I understand and share the frustration with how the Wizards have been managed in recent years, and yet feel that many here suffer from a reactionary tunnel vision when it comes to the range of possible outcomes for the future.

[montestewart]

The only thing I'm selling is that there will be other opportunities to improve the team other than the scenario nate laid out. I'm not disagreeing with anything you say about wanting Ernie gone, minute loads, etc.

With Booker out of Witt's doghouse and contributing, we are slowly arriving at a point where many hoped we'd be when the season was starting -- a solid 7 man rotation with Booker and Webster capably contributing off the bench, and the opportunity to play Porter with good players so as to get him up to speed sooner rather than later. The error margin is still razor thin and contributions from anyone outside our top 7 are unreliable. Nothing to celebrate over. No clear and easy path to huge improvement. But enjoyable to watch with hope for the future if things break right.

Exactly. When your margin of error is that small to begin with, it's really unrealistic to assume that things will break exactly as one would hope because it never does. Beyond no clear and easy path to improvement, there's no clear and easy way to even maintain what we have now, which is basically a .435 winning percentage. Is this really enjoyable, or does it offer just enough tease to wet the pallet in anticipation for more?

What happens if we make the playoffs? We give the good hard fight for 6 games and were left heading into the offseason with 3 1/2 legitimate NBA players with Wall, Beal, Webster & a broken down Nene remaining on the roster and Gortat & Ariza looking for huge paydays. 8 empty roster spots, no 1st rd pick and pretty much the only guys we'll be signing (er, overpaying) is our own free agents.

IMO the future is very bleak if this all-in for the '13-'14 season actually works and Ernie & Witt keep their jobs for at least the time being.

On enjoyability, I was talking about two things: (1) aesthetics -- when the Wizards are healthy and playing well, they're fun for me to watch (2) competitiveness -- winning is better than losing. In the moment, mediocrity feels better than sucking. Anyone who has played sports or competed in anything knows that being terrible and getting embarrassed feels horrendous.

On a personal note, I've done a lot of work on living in the moment over the years. Much as I would like to be, I am not an owner or executive with the Wizards. I am a fan -- a big one -- and my fandom is a form of entertainment. So when the stars (and injury report) align such that the Wizards are going good and putting the hurt on good teams, I don't think it's healthy or productive -- for me at least -- to grouse that it's unsustainable or fools gold or whatever. That's not to say that I don't like to opine and speculate about ways to improve the team and leaders I'd like to see replaced.

I admit that I find it mildly annoying that whenever I post about basically anything positive related to the team, it's met with responses that seem somewhat driven by anger and not as much by thought. I understand and share with frustration with how the Wizards have been managed in recent years, and yet feel that many here suffer from a reactionary tunnel vision when it comes to the range of possible outcomes for the future.

I'm likely one of those annoying posters, and before anything else, I'll say that you're one of my favorite posters here, whether I agree with you or not, not only because you are thoughtful and open-minded, but because you (and dobrojim and others) consistently inject reasonable positiveness to the conversation. I can use some of that sometimes.

For me currently, Wizards fandom is an exhausting dichotomy: on the one hand, wishing it would all just fail so badly that the owner will see the error of his ways, jettison EG, most of the bench for nothing, Nene and Ariza for whatever they can get, and just start over on the fly with a visionary team builder and shrewd manager of assets running the show with little interference. Yet, when I'm watching games, I'm rooting for each player, at each moment, to play his best, to play better than his best, to win. Even if that win is nothing but a notch closer to average. I don't want Maynor to fail, I don't want Nene to be injured again, I don't want bad things to happen, I don't want my negativity to correspond with reality.

"Go Wizards!" is my in-game mantra. I guess "Eff it, just start over," is my out-of-game mantra. I'll be much happier when I can just go with one chant. You have the unfortunate task of occasionally trying to offer balance to sour pusses like me.

[dobrojim]

reasonable positiveness....I can live with that.
thanks

I also appreciate what you said about living a dichotomy. From some
comments here, it would seem like some of the ....trying to think of the
right word, let's just say naysayers, actually want us to lose. Must feel
weird.

[payitforward]

...For me currently, Wizards fandom is an exhausting dichotomy: on the one hand, wishing it would all just fail.... Yet, when I'm watching games, I'm rooting for each player, at each moment, to play his best, to play better than his best, to win. ...I don't want bad things to happen, I don't want my negativity to correspond with reality....

I don't see this as a dichotomy at all. It's the natural condition of fandom at most moments for most franchises in most sports (where there is an opportunity to start over via a draft, etc. aimed at that).

Our problem is only that the "moment" has lasted a long, long time. And that for many years, we've watched our GMs pee in a bowl and call it soup.

Obviously, Ernie is the worst -- if only because he's the current one! . In fact, I don't think he is the worst in our last couple of decades; I don't think he would have traded Chris Webber for "the corpse of Mitch Richmond" (someone here used that colorful description and I loved it!).

But he's plenty bad enough, and he's certainly got the longest-term inverse relationship between results and job security in any major sport of our time; I don't think there's any doubt about that.

[payitforward]

Projecting our records home and away across 41 games each, we now project to win 36 games. Obviously, the more games you've played the more reliable these projections become.

We started the season with what someone here said was the easiest schedule of any team; I don't know whether that still holds true over the 28% of the season we've played.

Right now, we sit at #6 with 5 teams w/in 1.5 games behind us and 2 teams 1.5 games ahead of us. It's too early to worry about it, but we might still fall to 7th or 8th and get trampled by Miami or Indiana. Or, less likely, fall out of the playoffs altogether. It's also possible, that we will rise to #4, maybe even #3 (seems pretty unlikely?).

17 of the 30 teams in the NBA have better records than ours. Only 2 teams in the Western Conference have a worse record than ours.

If we look at the 12 teams in the league that have worse records than ours, nearly all of them are younger than we are, i.e. earlier in their rebuild (in off-season, Ted declared that our "rebuild is over"). The ones that are older -- especially NY and Brooklyn -- are shining (glaring?) examples of how not to build a good NBA team. Another, Utah, has acquired a lot of expiring veterans and is obviously planning a rebuild at the season's end.

And many teams with better records than ours -- often much better -- are also younger than we are. Because young players tend to get better, young teams tend to get better as well.

In short, most features of our current situation indicate that this generation of the Wizards has a limited future.

Now, in basketball, unlike football or baseball, one really productive player can make a substantial difference to a team. But, because we've discarded most of our cap flexibility, we'll need to get lucky with a draft pick -- and that can happen. OTOH, we've also discarded a round 1 pick, and you can't get lucky with a guy you aren't able to take.

[payitforward]

Note that 4 of our next 5 games are away, and the one home game is vs. Detroit, a team that bothers us a lot with size.

Hold your breath and root hard. I don't want to be 10-18 or 11-17 or even 12-16 (might be the most likely outcome...).

[fishercob]

...For me currently, Wizards fandom is an exhausting dichotomy: on the one hand, wishing it would all just fail.... Yet, when I'm watching games, I'm rooting for each player, at each moment, to play his best, to play better than his best, to win. ...I don't want bad things to happen, I don't want my negativity to correspond with reality....

I don't see this as a dichotomy at all. It's the natural condition of fandom at most moments for most franchises in most sports (where there is an opportunity to start over via a draft, etc. aimed at that).

Our problem is only that the "moment" has lasted a long, long time. And that for many years, we've watched our GMs pee in a bowl and call it soup.

Obviously, Ernie is the worst -- if only because he's the current one! . In fact, I don't think he is the worst in our last couple of decades; I don't think he would have traded Chris Webber for "the corpse of Mitch Richmond" (someone here used that colorful description and I loved it!).

But he's plenty bad enough, and he's certainly got the longest-term inverse relationship between results and job security in any major sport of our time; I don't think there's any doubt about that.

I believe the phrase I used was "rotting corpse." Please don't sell me short!

[fishercob]

If you watched the Nets game tonight and your enjoyment was somewhat muted by who the general manager is or whether we have a first round pick next year, you're doing it wrong. That was effing awesome. Excellent collective effort. Seriously, if you couldn't get pumped up watching that game, just go be a Heat fan and leave the rest of us alone.

[doclinkin]

If you watched the Nets game tonight and your enjoyment was somewhat muted by who the general manager is or whether we have a first round pick next year, you're doing it wrong. That was effing awesome. Excellent collective effort. Seriously, if you couldn't get pumped up watching that game, just go be a Heat fan and leave the rest of us alone.

The Nets are 9-16 in the weak East.

I love the cheap thrill of good play when we're healthy, and like seeing signs that the squad may be developing chemistry. But it wears off afterwards, wishing to see more of it, and realizing this was only the 6th time we've been able to get Nene on court with all other starters.

If we could keep this squad upright and playing with this much energy all year, then great. But we didn't beat the Spurs here. Nor Indiana. Nor your Heat. Hey I'm Mr Happy thread, but I enjoy _hope_ most of all. We were one lotto pick away from sustainable wins. This year has yin in the yang for me all year round. Will always root for wins, am always looking for reasons that this crew will stun and surprise. Can still drop nuggets in the Optimism thread, strip mine clouds for silver. But yes, that oil hasn't burned for 8 miraculous days in the darkness yet. It flickers. Three fifths of our starters this game are on expiring contracts. Our rookie #2 overall pick played 3 minutes. Our 2nd rounder (we finally used one) is getting wrist surgery, out for 6 weeks. And mostly: the Nets suck.

[pineappleheadindc]

If you watched the Nets game tonight and your enjoyment was somewhat muted by who the general manager is or whether we have a first round pick next year, you're doing it wrong. That was effing awesome. Excellent collective effort. Seriously, if you couldn't get pumped up watching that game, just go be a Heat fan and leave the rest of us alone.

The Nets are 9-16 in the weak East.

I love the cheap thrill of good play when we're healthy, and like seeing signs that the squad may be developing chemistry. But it wears off afterwards, wishing to see more of it, and realizing this was only the 6th time we've been able to get Nene on court with all other starters.

If we could keep this squad upright and playing with this much energy all year, then great. But we didn't beat the Spurs here. Nor Indiana. Nor your Heat. Hey I'm Mr Happy thread, but I enjoy _hope_ most of all. We were one lotto pick away from sustainable wins. This year has yin in the yang for me all year round. Will always root for wins, am always looking for reasons that this crew will stun and surprise. Can still drop nuggets in the Optimism thread, strip mine clouds for silver. But yes, that oil hasn't burned for 8 miraculous days in the darkness yet. It flickers. Three fifths of our starters this game are on expiring contracts. Our rookie #2 overall pick played 3 minutes. Our 2nd rounder (we finally used one) is getting wrist surgery, out for 6 weeks. And mostly: the Nets suck.

Two questions:

1. Where is the REAL doc?
2. What have you done with him?

Dude, since when have you turned into Negative Nancy? It's as if we don't know you any more.

You've changed.

[doclinkin]

I'm a gemini. Got both sides. That's nothing different.

Plus as a draft addict I get rage-drunk whenever picks are casually spilled or flushed. Picks represent hope for a dynasty. I do think Gortat is better than most picks you'd get in the back half of the lotto. But we have to re-ink him (on a good deal) for that to matter.

Okay here's a shiny side of that coin: The hope is that having a 'soulmate' on the team inspires him to sign at a relative discount:

http://www.nbcwashington.com/video/#!/n ... /236300231

Then the gamble of trading away a 1st rounder that GMEG would have squandered anyway (since he will be our GM for life) is less of a wasted chance.

[fishercob]

If you watched the Nets game tonight and your enjoyment was somewhat muted by who the general manager is or whether we have a first round pick next year, you're doing it wrong. That was effing awesome. Excellent collective effort. Seriously, if you couldn't get pumped up watching that game, just go be a Heat fan and leave the rest of us alone.

The Nets are 9-16 in the weak East.

I love the cheap thrill of good play when we're healthy, and like seeing signs that the squad may be developing chemistry. But it wears off afterwards, wishing to see more of it, and realizing this was only the 6th time we've been able to get Nene on court with all other starters.

If we could keep this squad upright and playing with this much energy all year, then great. But we didn't beat the Spurs here. Nor Indiana. Nor your Heat. Hey I'm Mr Happy thread, but I enjoy _hope_ most of all. We were one lotto pick away from sustainable wins. This year has yin in the yang for me all year round. Will always root for wins, am always looking for reasons that this crew will stun and surprise. Can still drop nuggets in the Optimism thread, strip mine clouds for silver. But yes, that oil hasn't burned for 8 miraculous days in the darkness yet. It flickers. Three fifths of our starters this game are on expiring contracts. Our rookie #2 overall pick played 3 minutes. Our 2nd rounder (we finally used one) is getting wrist surgery, out for 6 weeks. And mostly: the Nets suck.

Two questions:

1. Where is the REAL doc?
2. What have you done with him?

Dude, since when have you turned into Negative Nancy? It's as if we don't know you any more.

You've changed.

Seriously. I never thought they'd get to doc, but it looks like one of those hate zombies that he and Nivek are always talking about sunk his teeth right into doc's bony frame. Damn shame if you ask me.

Pierce looked fantastic last night -- exhibit A for why HGH should be legalized. Brook Lopez was borderline unstoppable for stretches. 7-layer Dray was coming off two 20 point games. Joe Johnson had just gone off for 10 3's. As a whole the Nyets are starting to play better and I expect that to continue.

But even if they don't, watching Wall dismantle and emasculate a supposedly elite PG like Williams (who is on a true MAX contract) is joyous. Beal played a pretty mediocre game overall, but hit a dagger three when it we needed it. Booker breasted on the boards. Nene was insanely efficient. It was just FUN to watch.

It's nice watching Dray suffer after talking smack to the wizards last year. It's great watching Father Time finally score a standing 8 count on KG, who has spent the last 15 years bullying our guys. Winning two games in New York is ALWAYS a good thing.

If Otto isn't getting any burn because the team is playing this well, that's what we call on of them good problems -- to paraphrase Marlo Stanfield. If we can't get him on the floor with actual rotation quality guys instead of complete scrubs, that is going to speed his development -- his upside and well as this squad's.

Health and wins are good for this franchise!!




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[Dat2U]

I get excited when I see Wall & Beal play well. I'll be thrilled if Porter or Rice step up and become a player at some point. But that's about it for me. Seeing us win games off the backs of Nene, Gortat or Ariza only strengthen the position of Ernie and that just goes against my entire thought process right now.

[willbcocks]

What we have, and which almost none of the teams worse or better than us have, is two players who are as young and as good as John Wall and Bradley Beal. And the NBA is a star's league. This alone should give us hope. We also have Otto, who I still have high expectations for. And Otto and Beal were drafted in the past 2 years, so they have a while left on their rookie deals. In terms of top-tier young talent, we are doing well.

The problem is literally everything else on our roster is a frankenstein of poor planning, overcompensation, and sweeping the dirt under the rug. But another reason to have hope is look at some of the work done by new GMs on other teams. Rudy gay was traded, twice. Bargnani was traded. Orlando, Phoenix, Toronto, Philly--many of these teams that looked like they were in awful shape, far worse than we are now, now look like they are on the rise.

A good GM could figure out something to do with Nene, Gortat, Ariza, and Webster....