Shaquille O'Neal Synergy Offense (1998-2001 Playoffs)

[Peregrine01]

Very interesting. I thought that his post up percentages would be higher. He was an absolute monster at finishing around the basket though.

[lorak]

Something is wrong

According to your data Shaq had 1542 total points and 1344 total plays during these 3 playoffs runs.

But in reality he had 1590 points and 1547 plays (assuming your and1 count is right).

So instead of 1.15 ppp player (your data) he in reality was 1.03 ppp player.

He was intentionally fouled quite a bit, even in the back court. This chart only keeps track of plays when he was making an offensive move.

So we can't really compare those numbers to Synergy stats.

[Dipper 13]

So we can't really compare those numbers to Synergy stats.

Not without turnovers, or knowing how they actually keep track of the Finish plays. I am mainly focusing on the FG%, fouls drawn, & and-1 rate.

[colts18]

0.98 PPP on post possessions is really good. Here are the post leaders from last year

Points per play

Kobe Bryant 1.05

Kevin Durant 1.04

Dirk Nowitzki 1.02

Marc Gasol 0.96

David Lee 0.95

[richboy]

It isn't bad. It just not as dominate as some may think. I have Shaq a little overrated because IMO he was too offensive minded. I've said in the past that second year Shaq was better than every Shaq year except his MVP year and the 01 playoffs. One of the reasons is because I think people get too caught up in post play. I think if Shaq went out to be a dominate defensive player and on offense did some post up but a lot of PNR and just finishing he would have had more team success.

[lorak]

So we can't really compare those numbers to Synergy stats.

Not without turnovers, or knowing how they actually keep track of the Finish plays. I am mainly focusing on the FG%, fouls drawn, & and-1 rate.

So it has no value in comparison to real Synergy stats.

Your data: Shaq is 1.15 ppp, in reality 1.03.

The same with Jordan: your data 1.21 ppp, in reality he was between 1.02-1.09 in playoffs and 1.06-1.11 in regular season during seasons you used.

BTW, i probably know why your on/off numbers seems so odd. Did you count manually only possessions with player off the floor and possessions on the court are estimated based on basketballreference box score?

[RayBan-Sematra]

It isn't bad. It just not as dominate as some may think.

Not sure what you mean.
Shaq's offensive numbers are easily GOAT level.

I have Shaq a little overrated because IMO he was too offensive minded.

Shaq was definitely better offensively then defensively but he was still a dominant two way player.

I think if Shaq went out to be a dominate defensive player and on offense did some post up but a lot of PNR and just finishing he would have had more team success.

Shaq is a Top 3 All-Time offensive anchor.
Would seem silly to try and put him in a smaller or supporting role offensively.
Dude was the most efficient and consistent high volume scorer ever from the field.

Also Shaq was a dominant defensive player.
He was absolutely elite when it came to defending the paint, the rim and his man.

The only aspect of his defense which he was not elite at was defending deep PnR screens because he didn't like coming out all the way to the perimeter.
Still that is only one small facet of overall defense for a C. It didn't stop him from being an elite defensive player.
Plus in his Youth & Peak years he usually did at worst a passable job of guarding the PnR especially in the playoffs. Those who act like he couldn't defend it or like it was a big weakness are simply revising history.

[Dipper 13]

So it has no value in comparison to real Synergy stats.

Your data: Shaq is 1.15 ppp, in reality 1.03.

Looking at the videos, they chart the plays in a different manner than I did, mainly the Spot Up plays. On my chart it is jump shots only, whereas that is not the case with Synergy. Though Jordan in the data was over 50% on spot up jumpers.

http://i.imgur.com/sSe2aEV.png

Ultimately it's up to the NBA to release the data from before 1997. Is there any reason why they haven't done so? Did they start in 1997, or did they go back and re-watch the footage? They certainly have access to the games.

Did you count manually only possessions with player off the floor and possessions on the court are estimated based on basketballreference box score?

No all possessions were counted, however some games were incomplete. I am not a fan of the way certain statistics on this forum are used to brutally trash various legends, when the data just does not exist for the first 50 years of the NBA, at least not publicly.

[lorak]

So it has no value in comparison to real Synergy stats.

Your data: Shaq is 1.15 ppp, in reality 1.03.

Looking at the videos, they chart the plays in a different manner than I did,

Definitely, and that's the problem, because you put so much work into it, but we can't use your data in comparison to Synergy stats.

Ultimately it's up to the NBA to release the data from before 1997. Is there any reason why they haven't done so?

Do they have play by plays from before 1997? If so how back in time? I mean, do they have from 80s? 70s? I highly doubt it...

No all possessions were counted, however some games were incomplete.

So tell me, if for example Jordan was off the court and Bulls scored 10 points in 8 possessions (BTW, ORB doesn't start new possession, but some people count possessions that way, I hope you didn't, did you?) and allowed 11 points in 7 possessions then what Bulls ortg and drtg was according to you?

I am not a fan of the way certain statistics on this forum are used to brutally trash various legends,

I guess you are referring to Wilt. But even when we don't have +/- based data we have with/without and if season after season data tells similar story then there's no reason not to believe that Wilt wasn't as impactfull as his box score numbers suggest.

[Dipper 13]

So tell me, if for example Jordan was off the court and Bulls scored 10 points in 8 possessions (BTW, ORB doesn't start new possession, but some people count possessions that way, I hope you didn't, did you?) and allowed 11 points in 7 possessions then what Bulls ortg and drtg was according to you?

No, ORB keeps the possession alive.

125 Ortg, 157.1 Drtg

[lorak]

^
And that's the problem (and that explain why your on/off data looks so odd), it's the same mistake nba.com does. You can't count ortg/drtg that way, you have to add both teams possessions, divide by 2 and then calculate ortg/drtg. That's how basketball-reference does or we all, who present ortg/drtg based data.

[Dipper 13]

^
And that's the problem (and that explain why your on/off data looks so odd), it's the same mistake nba.com does. You can't count ortg/drtg that way, you have to add both teams possessions, divide by 2 and then calculate ortg/drtg. That's how basketball-reference does or we all, who present ortg/drtg based data.

Exactly how is this done?

[lorak]

That way:
0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV))

(there's also shorter equation, but slightly less accurate).

Or in other words: 0.5*(team A possessions + team B possessions)

[Ryoga Hibiki]

When looking at Shaq's number, you must consider how the defence was playing him. He was constantly double and triple teamed and even a great defence was giving up an open three to prevent him from shooting. Pippen, when in Portland, was basically ignoring Derek Fisher, who was not a reliable shooter at the time.
No other post player has been harrased as much, and I don't remember anybody actually being able to contain him in single coverage.

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk

[Dipper 13]

That way:
0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV))

(there's also shorter equation, but slightly less accurate).

Or in other words: 0.5*(team A possessions + team B possessions)

I would think the actual rating is more accurate than one estimated by a formula. I believe that is 82games.com method. The main inaccuracy in the +/- data is the incomplete footage and selection of games available.

For instance how would the ratings look for this data?

When looking at Shaq's number, you must consider how the defence was playing him. He was constantly double and triple teamed and even a great defence was giving up an open three to prevent him from shooting. Pippen, when in Portland, was basically ignoring Derek Fisher, who was not a reliable shooter at the time.
No other post player has been harrased as much, and I don't remember anybody actually being able to contain him in single coverage.

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk

Yes, quite a few times he was shooting in heavy traffic. He was also excellent at following up his own missed shot with an offensive rebound and physically wearing down the opponent over the course of the game. I doubt there is any other player all time who has had that volume of post up plays.

[lorak]

That way:
0.5 * ((Tm FGA + 0.4 * Tm FTA - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + 0.4 * Opp FTA - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV))

(there's also shorter equation, but slightly less accurate).

Or in other words: 0.5*(team A possessions + team B possessions)

I would think the actual rating is more accurate than one estimated by a formula.

It's not about estimation, but about how to calculate ortg/drtg. The way you do it is wrong. No matter if possessions are estimated or actual - we have to add them and then divide by 2 before we calculate ortg/drtg.

[Gregoire]

In Jordans chart you give overall ISO plays PPP and here you separate it? Which type of shot here included to ISO scoring?

Spot-up Jumper in MJ chart and pull-up here its same thing?