27 wins to keep our draft pick!

Post #1 » by **Snakebites** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:19 pm

There's been a little chatter about the possibility of tanking to stay in this draft. I don't know how seriously anyone is taking this notion or how many see it as a viable option, but I figured I'd put a number on it for the sake of discussion and illumination.

To start, I took a gander at where bottom teams are NOW.

It appears there are EIGHT teams winning fewer than a third of their games, which means 8 teams project to win 27 or fewer games.

Our draft pick is only top 8 protected this year, meaning we have to fall into the bottom 8 to even stand a significant chance of keeping our pick barring some unexpected revivals, and this is without taking into account that other teams need to tank as well. If we end up in the lottery but above the bottom 8 threshold, we stand a less than 6% chance of moving into the top 3 and keeping our pick, so that's out.

But lets dissect that a little further.

That means that, for the rest of the season, we could not win more than 13 further games this year of the 50 games remaining in the season. That is a 13-37 record for the remainder of the season, which, using current records as a measuring stick, would mean we'd have to be the equivalent of the SECOND WORST team in the league for the remaining 50 games to even stand a good chance of keeping our pick.

Taking into account that even being 8th worst still leaves a significant chance of falling below if someone beneath moves up, and we'd probably have to be damn near the worst team in the league for the rest of the year to assure our pick's status, and that would have to come despite playing in this joke of a conference.

Long story short: it's really not feasible and we're pretty darn near the point of absolute no return in this regard. Playoffs of bust, an pray this team can show some discernible progress this year, because help isn't coming via lottery in a strong draft.

momed11 · Post #2 » by **momed11** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:25 pm

Ahh the tank commander.

I say we roll it out.

Let jennings and smoove loose to chuck any shot their hearts desire.

Trade moose for picks.

Feature dre on the block early and often.

May as well roll it out because moose is practically a goner so the only positive i can see is drummond's growth.

ImHeisenberg · Post #3 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:21 pm

The idea of tanking was simply something posters on here wanted to happen. There was never a notion out of Detroit that they were going to forego this season for long term gains. Not when the GM's job is riding on this season's outcome. Dumars currently doesn't give a damn about what happens after this season.

Piston Pete · Post #4 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:34 pm

There will come a point this season that Dumars needs to make this choice. Trade to compete this season, or trade to tank for the future.

Post #5 » by **Snakebites** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:15 pm

ImHeisenberg wrote:The idea of tanking was simply something posters on here wanted to happen. There was never a notion out of Detroit that they were going to forego this season for long term gains. Not when the GM's job is riding on this season's outcome. Dumars currently doesn't give a damn about what happens after this season.

Well yeah, I guess my point was that it really isn't possible at this point even if the organization decided to do it.

momed11 · Post #6 » by **momed11** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:27 pm

Snakebites wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:The idea of tanking was simply something posters on here wanted to happen. There was never a notion out of Detroit that they were going to forego this season for long term gains. Not when the GM's job is riding on this season's outcome. Dumars currently doesn't give a damn about what happens after this season.

Well yeah, I guess my point was that it really isn't possible at this point even if the organization decided to do it.

Theres a way. Unleash the hounds. Jennings and smoove no restrictions whatsoever.

Piston Pete · Post #7 » by **Piston Pete** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:46 pm

Or trade Stuckey for another PF/C

chrbal · Post #8 » by **chrbal** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 9:10 pm

I'd go in the opposite direction. if the pistons can get their **** together on a fairly consistent basis, there is no reason we can't have a considerably good season. The east has THREE teams with a winning percentage ABOVE .500. Ignore the crazy west, do good against the East teams...do your best against the west and the Piston (well, the Bobcats) could wind up picking somewhere around 20 in the 2014 draft.

kurtis48239 · Post #9 » by **kurtis48239** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 9:27 pm

The whole reason that we traded our pick was to get rid of gordon and have cap space to sign good players to make the playoffs,jennings has been good at pg and josh has been eh at sf.We can definitly still make the playoffs if dumars makes a trade or 2 and tweeks the lineup.**** we could still probably make the playoffs if we tweek the roster.

I definitly dont want to tank and still think this team has potential barring some changes.

wire28 · Post #10 » by **wire28** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:08 pm

sign me at point guard (im willing to take a one year deal for about 1.5 or 2 million) and start me. we'll make the lottery

ImHeisenberg · Post #11 » by **ImHeisenberg** » Mon Dec 30, 2013 11:41 pm

momed11 wrote:
Snakebites wrote:
ImHeisenberg wrote:The idea of tanking was simply something posters on here wanted to happen. There was never a notion out of Detroit that they were going to forego this season for long term gains. Not when the GM's job is riding on this season's outcome. Dumars currently doesn't give a damn about what happens after this season.

Well yeah, I guess my point was that it really isn't possible at this point even if the organization decided to do it.

Theres a way. Unleash the hounds. Jennings and smoove no restrictions whatsoever.

Certainly one way to restrict yourself to about 10 more wins.

DBC10 · Post #12 » by **DBC10** » Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:40 am

I don't care if we tank because at that point when we lose, we actually had a purpose in losing and not these inconsistencies.

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Post #13 » by **theBigLip** » Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:45 pm

The way we've been playing lately, this thread is becoming more relevant :-(

Post #14 » by **theBigLip** » Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:46 pm

Actually, if we don't make the playoffs, then we get in the lottery, and if we get lucky, that top 8 protection would come in handy :-)

Post #15 » by **Snakebites** » Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:00 pm

^Missing the playoffs looks possible at this point, but getting to the point where we have a better than 6% chance of keeping the pick, unfortunately, is not.

But yeah, if we did the protection saves it.

pistontr · Post #16 » by **pistontr** » Tue Dec 31, 2013 9:29 pm

starting line up should be

pg: kcp (can't dribble)
sg: smith (can't shoot)
sf: monroe (useless out of paint)
pf: drummond (he is young and need to develop)
c: siva (he is quick, that's mean that he is a match up problem for opponent centers)

Post #17 » by **theBigLip** » Mon Jan 6, 2014 6:02 pm

As of this morning on Jan 6, we are 11th (although we quality for the playoffs because we are in the East). If we drop just a little lower, we could very easily keep our pick.

Defor · Post #18 » by **Defor** » Mon Jan 6, 2014 6:51 pm

I think we'll probably drop the next three ,after that tho I think Joe will be forced to do a trade.

DBC10 · Post #19 » by **DBC10** » Mon Jan 6, 2014 7:11 pm

At this rate, it's fairly reasonable to just trade someone and get our pick. It'll be hilarious too.

I sure as heck wouldn't want CHA to get our pick when we're doing this bad.

Post #20 » by **Timmaytime** » Mon Jan 6, 2014 9:14 pm

Piston Pete wrote:Or trade Stuckey for another PF/C

I think Paul Millsap would be a good acquisition, How can you beat a lineup like this?

BJ/Smoove/Milsap/Monroe/Drummond..

So much talent we'll never lose!