Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[nate33]

You guys have to realize that Ariza isn't going for MLE money. He took MLE money after a few short seasons with the Lakers and he's shown that he's a better player than he was then. He's one of the best three and d players in the league.

He has more value than Reddick and Korver easily--the guy has proven he's game changer unlike those guys. There's zero chance I take less than 8 million a year if I'm Trevor.

I wouldn't settle for anything besides a first or a long term front court starter for him a this point though. The talent between the top teams in the West is so close that Ariza would tip the scales for a lot of those teams and a first is absolutely worth it.

It's not about what he is worth, it's about what the market will pay him. Ariza is a role player - a really good role player, but a role player nevertheless. He's only a valuable player if he is on a good team with the right players around him to set him up. Under-the-cap teams typically don't have those good players. They are looking for stars with that cap room, not role players.

GMs are also going to notice that Ariza's success this year is an aberration relative to his career so far. That success is likely due to our system and the players around him (Wall) and is unlikely to translate on a new team.

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

[mhd]

You guys have to realize that Ariza isn't going for MLE money. He took MLE money after a few short seasons with the Lakers and he's shown that he's a better player than he was then. He's one of the best three and d players in the league.

He has more value than Reddick and Korver easily--the guy has proven he's game changer unlike those guys. There's zero chance I take less than 8 million a year if I'm Trevor.

I wouldn't settle for anything besides a first or a long term front court starter for him a this point though. The talent between the top teams in the West is so close that Ariza would tip the scales for a lot of those teams and a first is absolutely worth it.

It's not about what he is worth, it's about what the market will pay him. Ariza is a role player - a really good role player, but a role player nevertheless. He's only a valuable player if he is on a good team with the right players around him to set him up. Under-the-cap teams typically don't have those good players. They are looking for stars with that cap room, not role players.

GMs are also going to notice that Ariza's success this year is an aberration relative to his career so far. That success is likely due to our system and the players around him (Wall) and is unlikely to translate on a new team.

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

I could see Dallas as a potential major suitor for him.

[Dark Faze]

You guys have to realize that Ariza isn't going for MLE money. He took MLE money after a few short seasons with the Lakers and he's shown that he's a better player than he was then. He's one of the best three and d players in the league.

He has more value than Reddick and Korver easily--the guy has proven he's game changer unlike those guys. There's zero chance I take less than 8 million a year if I'm Trevor.

I wouldn't settle for anything besides a first or a long term front court starter for him a this point though. The talent between the top teams in the West is so close that Ariza would tip the scales for a lot of those teams and a first is absolutely worth it.

It's not about what he is worth, it's about what the market will pay him. Ariza is a role player - a really good role player, but a role player nevertheless. He's only a valuable player if he is on a good team with the right players around him to set him up. Under-the-cap teams typically don't have those good players. They are looking for stars with that cap room, not role players.

GMs are also going to notice that Ariza's success this year is an aberration relative to his career so far. That success is likely due to our system and the players around him (Wall) and is unlikely to translate on a new team.

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

Show me a recent contract from a two way wing roleplayer that went under 8 a year? And by that I mean a wing that can actually check the other teams best perimeter players?

You're underestimating the going rate of starting wings these days

Gerald Wallace, Batum, Afflalo, Jeff Green...all those guys are two way wing roleplayers signed to extensions in the last five years and got 8 a year minimum. Batum got 11, Gerald got a little over 10 and Jeff recently got 8.5...and that guy never won anything, but he's a two way roleplayer and those are rare in this league.

If you just want a roleplayer who can only play one side of the court then that's when you start talking MLE/6 to 7 million range. Two way gets you paid.

[hands11]

You guys have to realize that Ariza isn't going for MLE money. He took MLE money after a few short seasons with the Lakers and he's shown that he's a better player than he was then. He's one of the best three and d players in the league.

He has more value than Reddick and Korver easily--the guy has proven he's game changer unlike those guys. There's zero chance I take less than 8 million a year if I'm Trevor.

I wouldn't settle for anything besides a first or a long term front court starter for him a this point though. The talent between the top teams in the West is so close that Ariza would tip the scales for a lot of those teams and a first is absolutely worth it.

It's not about what he is worth, it's about what the market will pay him. Ariza is a role player - a really good role player, but a role player nevertheless. He's only a valuable player if he is on a good team with the right players around him to set him up. Under-the-cap teams typically don't have those good players. They are looking for stars with that cap room, not role players.

GMs are also going to notice that Ariza's success this year is an aberration relative to his career so far. That success is likely due to our system and the players around him (Wall) and is unlikely to translate on a new team.

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

You tellm Nate.

But I do expect Miami, SA, Dallas to come after him. Even the Lakers.

[hands11]

You can't do that. We would have to first relinquish the MLE in order to get under the cap to have the cap room to sign Monroe. After signing Monroe, we wouldn't then be able to "unrelinquish" the MLE.

Not talking about Monroe. Talking about signing our own first.

Man... Thaddeus Young is tearing it up.

Yes. We can resign Gortat and/or Ariza (and/or Booker and Seraphin) using Bird Rights, and then use the MLE to add other free agents. The luxtax comes into play in this scenario, depending on how expensive Ariza and Gortat are.

Exactly. That was the approach I was talking about.

[LyricalRico]

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

Well, if the full MLE is something like 4 years, $23M then we're betting that it's not worth $5M for him to play for a contender in a city he actually likes. You might think it's a no-brainer, but I'm not convinced that he's a lock to re-sign.

Webster took a cheap deal and ended up with a career year, then seemed like he really wanted to stay. He proved it by signing with us the first day and not really even shopping around (even though the Wizards couldn't offer more than most other teams). I don't get the same vibe from Ariza.

[nate33]

Show me a recent contract from a two way wing roleplayer that went under 8 a year? And by that I mean a wing that can actually check the other teams best perimeter players?

You're underestimating the going rate of starting wings these days

Gerald Wallace, Batum, Afflalo, Jeff Green...all those guys are two way wing roleplayers signed to extensions in the last five years and got 8 a year minimum. Batum got 11, Gerald got a little over 10 and Jeff recently got 8.5...and that guy never won anything, but he's a two way roleplayer and those are rare in this league.

If you just want a roleplayer who can only play one side of the court then that's when you start talking MLE/6 to 7 million range. Two way gets you paid.

I don't think Ariza it's considered a "two-way" player. He's a one way defensive specialist who is having an outlier year on offense thanks to John Wall. He's got an 8 year track record that suggests he lacks the offensive ability of all the guys you mentioned.

Also, most of those big contracts you mentioned were signed a few years ago. We are getting into the painful portion of the new CBA when repeat offender taxes start taking effect.

[nate33]

Well, if the full MLE is something like 4 years, $23M then we're betting that it's not worth $5M for him to play for a contender in a city he actually likes. You might think it's a no-brainer, but I'm not convinced that he's a lock to re-sign.
.

The three surefire contending teams next year are Indy, Miami and OKC. All 3 teams either lack the MLE because they are over the luxtax, or they are unwilling to exceed the luxtax. They are not options for Ariza.

Ariza would have to take that $5M paycut only to join a mid tier playoff team like the Lakers or Dallas who frankly have less of a chance to contend in the next 4 years than us. I don't think he does it for geography reasons alone.

[hands11]

I think Ariza will have a ton of suitors at the full MLE, but I really doubt he'll go for much more. I think 4 years, $28M gets it done.

Well, if the full MLE is something like 4 years, $23M then we're betting that it's not worth $5M for him to play for a contender in a city he actually likes. You might think it's a no-brainer, but I'm not convinced that he's a lock to re-sign.

Webster took a cheap deal and ended up with a career year, then seemed like he really wanted to stay. He proved it by signing with us the first day and not really even shopping around (even though the Wizards couldn't offer more than most other teams). I don't get the same vibe from Ariza.

Hard to tell what he vib is exactly. I would imagine he would be evaluating the Wizards like he would other teams he might look at. He would be figuring out does he fit (yes) and can they challenge in the playoffs ( we are learning more about that daily). I think a lot of that would start by evaluating Wall, who seems to be rising to the occasion. Does the team have enough leadership from productive players ? Does the team have good wings ? Beal is looking good and he and Webster seem to respect and like each other. From there do we have the post players to do it. Well Nene has shown he is good. He looks like a legit deep playoff type post player. Just a matter of how much you can count on him.

So he would be kind of doing what we are doing. Evaluating the team and then comparing his options. And he likely sees what we see, we need some help in the post. What would it take to address that ? Would Okafor returning help enough to round out of the front court if its Nene, Gortat, Kevin and Okafor ? How quickly can Otto show if he can be legit playoff caliber help ?

I don't think TA knows what he would do because he like us is still learning what this team is. With every new road win, higher winning percentage, etc., I would expect his chances of staying go up. I think these things matter as would, does he believe the front office can get there. And who will the coach be? Since we don't know, I don't think he has enough information to decide yet. But I bet he is feeling better about things.

[verbal8]

I wonder if San Antonio might have serious interest in Ariza. They would have to play Leonard and Ariza some at Stretch-4, but they could get Leonard 30 minutes and Ariza 25 to 30 minutes. I think San Antonio may be willing to overpay to get a shorter/more team friendly deal in free agency. While Ariza isn't a major position of need for them, he does seem like their type of player.

[Ruzious]

Show me a recent contract from a two way wing roleplayer that went under 8 a year? And by that I mean a wing that can actually check the other teams best perimeter players?

You're underestimating the going rate of starting wings these days

Gerald Wallace, Batum, Afflalo, Jeff Green...all those guys are two way wing roleplayers signed to extensions in the last five years and got 8 a year minimum. Batum got 11, Gerald got a little over 10 and Jeff recently got 8.5...and that guy never won anything, but he's a two way roleplayer and those are rare in this league.

If you just want a roleplayer who can only play one side of the court then that's when you start talking MLE/6 to 7 million range. Two way gets you paid.

I don't think Ariza it's considered a "two-way" player. He's a one way defensive specialist who is having an outlier year on offense thanks to John Wall. He's got an 8 year track record that suggests he lacks the offensive ability of all the guys you mentioned.

Also, most of those big contracts you mentioned were signed a few years ago. We are getting into the painful portion of the new CBA when repeat offender taxes start taking effect.

I think those are wise words. I'm really enjoying Ariza's play this season - he's been quite the 3 point sniper, but he does seem like the type who would play his best ball in a contract year. But the key with Ariza is keeping a good team around him - particularly with a creator guard who he can play off of (Kobe, Wall). When times are tough, he's had a tendency to mope. So just don't have tough times and just win!

[hands11]

I wonder if San Antonio might have serious interest in Ariza. They would have to play Leonard and Ariza some at Stretch-4, but they could get Leonard 30 minutes and Ariza 25 to 30 minutes. I think San Antonio may be willing to overpay to get a shorter/more team friendly deal in free agency. While Ariza isn't a major position of need for them, he does seem like their type of player.

I think they would. They are on my list of teams that would look at him. You almost have to wonder if with the new CBA and looking at the contender level teams, if it doesn't make more sense for a player like him to sign a 2 year deal.

That leaves him more flexibility to maximize his final years in the league by not wasting them on teams that can't content. Miami, SA, Dallas will all have core player issues that could change quickly. Dirk is getting older. The big three could break up. Duncan is aging. LA ? What will Kobe be. He is starting to show his age. Go with a team like the Wizards and you also have questions. Can they really get there. A two year deal gives him more control over where he plays instead of getting traded.

If he signs a two year, that's enough to buy in somewhere but adds flexibility to leave to title case if its not happening. I think that was part of the intention of the new CBA. Shorter contracts for more players who aren't core like Wall, so teams can build more quickly. Players like TA are intended to be 5/6M players on shorter contracts.

[hands11]

Show me a recent contract from a two way wing roleplayer that went under 8 a year? And by that I mean a wing that can actually check the other teams best perimeter players?

You're underestimating the going rate of starting wings these days

Gerald Wallace, Batum, Afflalo, Jeff Green...all those guys are two way wing roleplayers signed to extensions in the last five years and got 8 a year minimum. Batum got 11, Gerald got a little over 10 and Jeff recently got 8.5...and that guy never won anything, but he's a two way roleplayer and those are rare in this league.

If you just want a roleplayer who can only play one side of the court then that's when you start talking MLE/6 to 7 million range. Two way gets you paid.

I don't think Ariza it's considered a "two-way" player. He's a one way defensive specialist who is having an outlier year on offense thanks to John Wall. He's got an 8 year track record that suggests he lacks the offensive ability of all the guys you mentioned.

Also, most of those big contracts you mentioned were signed a few years ago. We are getting into the painful portion of the new CBA when repeat offender taxes start taking effect.

I think those are wise words. I'm really enjoying Ariza's play this season - he's been quite the 3 point sniper, but he does seem like the type who would play his best ball in a contract year. But the key with Ariza is keeping a good team around him - particularly with a creator guard who he can play off of (Kobe, Wall). When times are tough, he's had a tendency to mope. So just don't have tough times and just win!

I don't think its the contract year as much as his fit with the players around him. He fits perfectly here so he can focus on what he does without being asked to do things he doesn't do as well. The Wizards line up he plays in maximizes he skills so he is more efficient. He showed some of that last year as well and that wasn't a contract year.

[Ruzious]

I wonder if San Antonio might have serious interest in Ariza. They would have to play Leonard and Ariza some at Stretch-4, but they could get Leonard 30 minutes and Ariza 25 to 30 minutes. I think San Antonio may be willing to overpay to get a shorter/more team friendly deal in free agency. While Ariza isn't a major position of need for them, he does seem like their type of player.

With the length and defensive ability of those 2, they could make it work - especially SA. But would Ariza want to play the 4? My guess is no. And I think SA is going to groom Leonard to be their go-to guy - much like Indy did with George (which has worked out really well). I don't think they'll want Leonard to take the pounding of playing the 4 too much - but I could be wrong. Come playoff time, they might want to take advantage of matchups - and having Leonard and Ariza and Green could create opportunities. Btw, SA does everything right. Even their cap management is as good as any team in the NBA.

[LyricalRico]

From Grantland:

Ersan Ilyasova: Dead or Alive?

Ilyasova started slowly last season after signing his big-money contract, but this is something different. We're 30 games into this thing, and Ilyasova just hasn't found anything close to his game after dealing with a bunch of leg issues in the preseason and earlier. Nearly all of Ilyasova's value comes on the offensive end, and a huge chunk of that value comes from his elite shooting at power forward. He has been a coveted player around the league.

But holy crap. Ilyasova is shooting just 36 percent from the floor, and he has hit eight 3-pointers all season. An Ilyasova who can't shoot is a minus player, and we haven't even addressed his falloff in rebounding and free throw attempts. Let's hope we can chalk this up to lingering injury issues, and that the real Ilyasova will reappear when healthy.

[Ruzious]

I don't think Ariza it's considered a "two-way" player. He's a one way defensive specialist who is having an outlier year on offense thanks to John Wall. He's got an 8 year track record that suggests he lacks the offensive ability of all the guys you mentioned.

Also, most of those big contracts you mentioned were signed a few years ago. We are getting into the painful portion of the new CBA when repeat offender taxes start taking effect.

I think those are wise words. I'm really enjoying Ariza's play this season - he's been quite the 3 point sniper, but he does seem like the type who would play his best ball in a contract year. But the key with Ariza is keeping a good team around him - particularly with a creator guard who he can play off of (Kobe, Wall). When times are tough, he's had a tendency to mope. So just don't have tough times and just win!

I don't think its the contract year as much as his fit with the players around him. He fits perfectly here so he can focus on what he does without being asked to do things he doesn't do as well. The Wizards line up he plays in maximizes he skills so he is more efficient. He showed some of that last year as well and that wasn't a contract year.

The key word being "some". He didn't come to play in several games last season. It was obvious in his body language - and in his production. And that's what New Orleans fans said about him when he was traded here.

[nate33]

I wonder if San Antonio might have serious interest in Ariza. They would have to play Leonard and Ariza some at Stretch-4, but they could get Leonard 30 minutes and Ariza 25 to 30 minutes. I think San Antonio may be willing to overpay to get a shorter/more team friendly deal in free agency. While Ariza isn't a major position of need for them, he does seem like their type of player.

San Antonio doesn't pay role players big money. They find underrated role players and plug them into their system where they can excel. I can't see San Antonio paying $8M a year for 25-30 mpg 3&D wing like Ariza. I'd expect them to sign somebody like Brandon Rush for peanuts instead.

The issue with San Antonio is that there's a good chance they go after Gortat.

[pcbothwel]

From Grantland:

Ersan Ilyasova: Dead or Alive?

Ilyasova started slowly last season after signing his big-money contract, but this is something different. We're 30 games into this thing, and Ilyasova just hasn't found anything close to his game after dealing with a bunch of leg issues in the preseason and earlier. Nearly all of Ilyasova's value comes on the offensive end, and a huge chunk of that value comes from his elite shooting at power forward. He has been a coveted player around the league.

But holy crap. Ilyasova is shooting just 36 percent from the floor, and he has hit eight 3-pointers all season. An Ilyasova who can't shoot is a minus player, and we haven't even addressed his falloff in rebounding and free throw attempts. Let's hope we can chalk this up to lingering injury issues, and that the real Ilyasova will reappear when healthy.

Thanks for that Rico. For the life of me I cant understand the infatuation with Ilyasova. Being a poor defender at the stretch 4 with a shot that isnt falling is a horrible combination. I think we need to relax and realize how punitive the new Lux tax and repeater tax will be. The Heat and Nets are about to be hit (though winning championships and having Billionaire Russian owners help). But teams like Chicago need to get out and now. The Clippers will have some issues too and Sterling is going to have some decisions to make, especially if they dont get to the WCF.
The next big shoe to drop for us is Beal in a couple years. We need to find a way to use this CBA to our advantage until then.

[Dark Faze]

My main target right now is a new backup PG. Temple is terrible. He's Maynor tier, just isn't as flashy in how bad he is. A more subtle poop that doesn't appear as bloated and warped as Maynor, but still contains the same stink.

He won't make your jaw drop with "my god that was a dumb shot" but the result is the same--a 33% TS with a complete inability to run an offense.

I'd love to get Jimmer. He'd help us stretch the floor off the bench.

[stevemcqueen1]

San Antonio probably isn't going to be able to afford Gortat nate. Not unless they get out of Duncan or Parker's deal for next season. They're at 56 million.