Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

[hands11]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10255 ... -luol-deng

The Bulls got a future first-round draft pick owed to the Cavs by the Sacramento Kings from a 2011 trade for J.J. Hickson. The Bulls will get the Kings' pick if it falls outside the top 12 in 2014 or outside the top 10 picks in 2015, 2016 or 2017.

The Bulls also got the 2015 and 2016 second-round picks the Portland Trail Blazers owed the Cavs.

In a final piece, the Bulls will be able to swap draft positions with the Cavs in 2015 as long as the Cavs' draft pick is outside the top 14 picks.

--- Breaking it down.
So CLE gave up an extra first pick they had that isn't going to yield a first in this years draft since the SAC pick is certain to be in the top 12. This is a pick they haven't been able to cash in on themselves in 2012 and 2013 because SAC keep sucking. So the sweet spot for Chicago is getting in the lottery at 11-14th in 2015 2016, 2017, with a small chance of moving up into top 3. That would take SAC being 17th to 20th worst team in the league, which is a decently small window but could happen over a 3 year window starting in 2015. Otherwise its outside the lottery and its no better the 15th pick. So Chicago can bank on no more then that. A 15th or later pick in 2015, 16, 2017

Two 2nds from Portland which look to be low picks and not until 2015 and 2016.

And they get to swap picks 2015 firsts with Cleavland if Cleveland isn't in the playoffs in 2015. So this would benefit Chicago if they were really good in 2015 and Cleveland was good enough to be in the playoff but not as good as Chicago who is in the playoffs. If Cleveland isn't in the playoffs, they keep the pick. But if they are both in, there is potential for Chicago to move up a few slots after the 14th pick. Something like they had the 22nd and Cleveland had the 16th. They can move up 6 slots. Lots of ifs and buts here.

So Cleveland like gave up a mid first in 2015, or 2016, or 2017 that has a small chance of a better pick.
Two late 2nds in 2015, 2016 and
they [u]might [/u]lose a few positions in the middle of the 2015 draft if both teams are in the playoff

And Cleveland keep their own first and 2nds. They added a legit star SF that bring offense and defense which was their teams biggest whole to a team that needed to add legit winning vets added so their best asset Kyrie doesn't rot on a losing team. Like the Wizards, they need to get Kyrie in the playoff so he can grow up with that experience early. The team now have add Jack and Deng to Kyrie to go along with Anderson Varejao and they have Tristan at PF and a young under performing #1 A Bennett. And they got to add that for singing Bynum for no assets over the summer ? And all it took was giving up and extra mid first in 2015-2017 and a couple late 2nds.

I think it was a smart move for Cleveland.

Kyrie, Deng, Tristan, Anderson backed up by Jack is legit to start winning and make the playoffs in a weak East. They now also have a better environment to bring along Waiter and Bennett. Tyler Zeller is big enough to back up the Mop. And they still have their 2014 first and 2nd picks. And they have cap room. And if they don't make the playoffs, they still have a lottery pick in the 2014 draft.

Not seeing why anyone would think Cleveland didn't do well with this move.

[Ruzious]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

[queridiculo]

Wow, kudos to the Bulls for pulling this move off, especially if the rumors are true that Deng rejected a deal worth $30 million over three years.

The Cavaliers on the other hand are starting to look as rudderless as the Wizards.

[nate33]

Wow, kudos to the Bulls for pulling this move off, especially if the rumors are true that Deng rejected a deal worth $30 million over three years.

The Cavaliers on the other hand are starting to look as rudderless as the Wizards.

Seems to be about the same as our trade for Gortat. Cleveland trades one lotto protected pick and worthless filler for a well-regarded but perhaps overrated veteran with an expiring contract.

[hands11]

Wow, kudos to the Bulls for pulling this move off, especially if the rumors are true that Deng rejected a deal worth $30 million over three years.

The Cavaliers on the other hand are starting to look as rudderless as the Wizards.

Seems to be about the same as our trade for Gortat. Cleveland trades one lotto protected pick and worthless filler for a well-regarded but perhaps overrated veteran with an expiring contract.

Difference is they have another first in this years draft. They gave up extra assets that are 2015 assets.

They also got a more complete player. They also planned for mop not being healthy by adding Bynum and structured the deal so they would be able to let him go and help another team dump cap mid season.

Their moves wasn't in a panic. Sadly, it was better then what the Wizards did.

Both team have the right priorities. Getting their star franchise player into the playoffs. The Wizards reacted early to try to ensure a good start and they have the better record for it. Cleveland waited it out. They wanted to see if the mop would be healthy and if Bynum would produce and be worth something.

The big difference is Cleveland used extra assets.

[Nivek]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

So far this season, Bennett rates as the league's 2nd least productive player (minimum of 200 total minutes). Only guy less productive has been Marquis Teague. Here's the list of guys with 200 minutes or more and a negative PPA:

1. Marquis Teague -60
2. Anthony Bennett -38
3. Tyshawn Taylor -15
4. Kent Bazemore -15
5. Evan Fournier -14
6. Gal Mekel -10
7. Jeff Taylor -3
8. Garrett Temple -2

[fishercob]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

This assumes Noel turns out to be any good. But yeah -- could have that same impact of Toronto taking JOnas, banking him overseas for a year and using that to aid their next tank effort.

[AFM]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

So far this season, Bennett rates as the league's 2nd least productive player (minimum of 200 total minutes). Only guy less productive has been Marquis Teague. Here's the list of guys with 200 minutes or more and a negative PPA:

1. Marquis Teague -60
2. Anthony Bennett -38
3. Tyshawn Taylor -15
4. Kent Bazemore -15
5. Evan Fournier -14
6. Gal Mekel -10
7. Jeff Taylor -3
8. Garrett Temple -2

Temple is really our worst player?

Does that make Vesely an early candidate for MIP?

[sashae]

I was really worried there wouldn't be any Wizards in the top 10, Nivek.

[Ruzious]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

So far this season, Bennett rates as the league's 2nd least productive player (minimum of 200 total minutes). Only guy less productive has been Marquis Teague. Here's the list of guys with 200 minutes or more and a negative PPA:

1. Marquis Teague -60
2. Anthony Bennett -38
3. Tyshawn Taylor -15
4. Kent Bazemore -15
5. Evan Fournier -14
6. Gal Mekel -10
7. Jeff Taylor -3
8. Garrett Temple -2

I gotta come clean - I thought Teague would be similar to his brother in the NBA. Theres' still time, but when you're last in the NBA in production...

[Nivek]

Imagine how good Cleve's future could have been if they had picked Noel instead of Bennett. I think it'll haunt them much like the Bullets trade of Ben Wallace (and 3 other players) for Ike Austin.

So far this season, Bennett rates as the league's 2nd least productive player (minimum of 200 total minutes). Only guy less productive has been Marquis Teague. Here's the list of guys with 200 minutes or more and a negative PPA:

1. Marquis Teague -60
2. Anthony Bennett -38
3. Tyshawn Taylor -15
4. Kent Bazemore -15
5. Evan Fournier -14
6. Gal Mekel -10
7. Jeff Taylor -3
8. Garrett Temple -2

Temple is really our worst player?

Does that make Vesely an early candidate for MIP?

It's a close competition between Temple and Seraphin, but Temple is "winning" right now. Really, it's just astonishing to recognize that as bad as Maynor has been, Temple has been at least as bad, if not worse.

Maynor's offensive rating is 83 so far this season; Temple's is 76. Maynor's efg is .357 -- Temple's is .318. This season, (pace adjusted) compared to Temple, Maynor has gotten more rebounds and assists. Their turnovers are comparable, and while Temple generates more blocks and steals, he also fouls nearly twice as often as Maynor.

That front office can REALLY pick 'em.

[Nivek]

I gotta come clean - I thought Teague would be similar to his brother in the NBA. Theres' still time, but when you're last in the NBA in production...

I had Marquis Teague with a "do not draft" rating in YODA. So, I can't say I'm very surprised he hasn't been a good pro. YODA had Jeff Teague with a latter part of the lottery grade. Somewhere in the 10-14 range in a typical draft.

[fishercob]

I think Kevin Love will be in Boston or Chicago within a year. Both are clearing cap space and stockpiling picks/assets -- and have the ability to do more. Once he tells Flip he's walking, it's game over in Minnesota. I can see the appeal of both spots to Love. It's a shame, that could have been us, but I think we're effed.

[Zonkerbl]

So... why does the team "look" so much better with Temple on the floor? Is it because he just gets out of the way as soon as possible so the bad effect of his touching the ball is minimized?

Does he have a lower usage rate, I guess I'm asking?

[Edit: Temple's usage rate is 13.8. Maynor's is 19.8]

[verbal8]

OKC added Gomes to the Courtney Lee/Bayless deal. He apparently will be waived by the Celtics.

Not sure what it adds for MEM/BOS, but it does let OKC use their 2.3 million TPE from Maynor and stay under the luxury tax. There is a 2016 pick involved, but I bet it is one of those "imaginary" picks.

[nate33]

So... why does the team "look" so much better with Temple on the floor? Is it because he just gets out of the way as soon as possible so the bad effect of his touching the ball is minimized?

Does he have a lower usage rate, I guess I'm asking?

[Edit: Temple's usage rate is 13.8. Maynor's is 19.8]

Yes. He has a lower usage rate because he gives Nene the ball and gets out of the way. He also plays better defense.

I love Nivek's PPA stat and it really seems to pass the smell test better than just about every single-number stat out there, but no single stat is perfect. It's totally obvious to me that Temple is a better player than Maynor. I think he is better than Seraphin and Singleton too.

[Zonkerbl]

So... why does the team "look" so much better with Temple on the floor? Is it because he just gets out of the way as soon as possible so the bad effect of his touching the ball is minimized?

Does he have a lower usage rate, I guess I'm asking?

[Edit: Temple's usage rate is 13.8. Maynor's is 19.8]

Yes. He has a lower usage rate because he gives Nene the ball and gets out of the way. He also plays better defense.

I love Nivek's PPA stat and it really seems to pass the smell test better than just about every single-number stat out there, but no single stat is perfect. It's totally obvious to me that Temple is a better player than Maynor. I think he is better than Seraphin and Singleton too.

I suppose that explains why Temple's +/- is about 7 points better than Maynor's despite Maynor having the better stats. Although to be fair, Maynor didn't have Nene to hand the ball off to.

[Nivek]

So... why does the team "look" so much better with Temple on the floor? Is it because he just gets out of the way as soon as possible so the bad effect of his touching the ball is minimized?

Does he have a lower usage rate, I guess I'm asking?

[Edit: Temple's usage rate is 13.8. Maynor's is 19.8]

First off, it's highly likely that the HUGE on/off difference between the two has a significant component of ye olde small sample size fluke. Temple has 312 minutes; Maynor just 208.

Second, Temple has had better teammates on the floor in his minutes than Maynor did in his. The minutes weighted PPA of Temple's lineups is 87; for Maynor it's 74.

Their top two player pairs are the same -- Webster and Vesely. Temple's 3rd and 4th most common "pairs" were Nene and Booker. For Maynor: Temple and Seraphin. Maynor had Harrington on the floor with him for 71 minutes -- Temple was saddled with Harrington for just 4 minutes.

My reading of the data is that Temple is not CAUSING the Wizards to be less awful when he's on the floor than they are when Maynor is out there. The difference is explained by sample size and quality of teammates while on the floor.

[Nivek]

To nate's point -- last season, Temple was indeed more productive (using PPA) than Maynor. What PPA is saying is that BOTH guys have been awful this season. Both guys are waaaaay below replacement level. Neither belongs in the NBA. Temple's terrible play is marginally more acceptable because he's getting the minimum, and his play last season suggested maybe he'd figured out a way to contribute.

Maynor, on the other hand, was the team's free agent prize. As badly as he's played, it's only marginally worse than he'd played throughout his career -- especially since his knee injury. Maynor represents a HUGE front office blunder. They thought they were getting a bargain when, in fact, they were signing a guy who doesn't belong in the league.

To me, it doesn't just suggest that they have major problems in their player evaluation process, it suggests they really don't have a good handle on the market for NBA players. Maynor's performance was that of a guy you might consider bringing in as a training camp invitee. Non-guaranteed, minimum salary. Because maybe you see something in him and you think that maybe your coaches and organization will bring it out. But, they RAN after Maynor. Signed him as fast as they could. They were afraid of losing him to someone else. Which was nuts.

Sigh.

[tontoz]

Maynor, on the other hand, was the team's free agent prize.

Glad i wasn't eating/drinking when i read that. It could have been messy.