Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 3

[hands11]

So far this season, Bennett rates as the league's 2nd least productive player (minimum of 200 total minutes). Only guy less productive has been Marquis Teague. Here's the list of guys with 200 minutes or more and a negative PPA:

1. Marquis Teague -60
2. Anthony Bennett -38
3. Tyshawn Taylor -15
4. Kent Bazemore -15
5. Evan Fournier -14
6. Gal Mekel -10
7. Jeff Taylor -3
8. Garrett Temple -2

Temple is really our worst player?

Does that make Vesely an early candidate for MIP?

It's a close competition between Temple and Seraphin, but Temple is "winning" right now. Really, it's just astonishing to recognize that as bad as Maynor has been, Temple has been at least as bad, if not worse.

Maynor's offensive rating is 83 so far this season; Temple's is 76. Maynor's efg is .357 -- Temple's is .318. This season, (pace adjusted) compared to Temple, Maynor has gotten more rebounds and assists. Their turnovers are comparable, and while Temple generates more blocks and steals, he also fouls nearly twice as often as Maynor.

That front office can REALLY pick 'em.

I'm a little shocked Temple has been this bad. He showed some flashes last year that I though he might be able to build on. He even hit open shots under pressure last year. Temple has been disappointing this year for sure. To bad. I liked the young man. At least he can still D up some.

[TGW]

Some insight on why Faried doesn't play as many minutes as you would think:

Kenneth Faried's Post Defense
Faried has always been a minus defender in just about every sense, but he's been alarmingly easy to score on in the post this season. Opposing players have shot 55 percent on post-ups against Faried, the 10th-highest (i.e., worst) mark among 121 players to have faced at least 30 post-ups, per Synergy Sports. (The same mark would have ranked 161st out of 166 players who faced at least 50 post-ups last season.)

The fighting spirit that makes him such a great offensive rebounder just doesn't carry over to post battles on the other end. Faried usually faces a size disadvantage, but opponents can back him down, stand him straight up, and slither right around him without much of a challenge. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1285770&start=180#sthash.ZgzMCpTW.dpuf

[hands11]

To nate's point -- last season, Temple was indeed more productive (using PPA) than Maynor. What PPA is saying is that BOTH guys have been awful this season. Both guys are waaaaay below replacement level. Neither belongs in the NBA. Temple's terrible play is marginally more acceptable because he's getting the minimum, and his play last season suggested maybe he'd figured out a way to contribute.

Maynor, on the other hand, was the team's free agent prize. As badly as he's played, it's only marginally worse than he'd played throughout his career -- especially since his knee injury. Maynor represents a HUGE front office blunder. They thought they were getting a bargain when, in fact, they were signing a guy who doesn't belong in the league.

To me, it doesn't just suggest that they have major problems in their player evaluation process, it suggests they really don't have a good handle on the market for NBA players. Maynor's performance was that of a guy you might consider bringing in as a training camp invitee. Non-guaranteed, minimum salary. Because maybe you see something in him and you think that maybe your coaches and organization will bring it out. But, they RAN after Maynor. Signed him as fast as they could. They were afraid of losing him to someone else. Which was nuts.

Sigh.

Well Temple last year did play on the floor with Wall and the starters a lot. He was basically DS. Just there for D and a few 3 balls. Clearly he would look better in those kind of line ups.

[hands11]

Some insight on why Faried doesn't play as many minutes as you would think:

Kenneth Faried's Post Defense
Faried has always been a minus defender in just about every sense, but he's been alarmingly easy to score on in the post this season. Opposing players have shot 55 percent on post-ups against Faried, the 10th-highest (i.e., worst) mark among 121 players to have faced at least 30 post-ups, per Synergy Sports. (The same mark would have ranked 161st out of 166 players who faced at least 50 post-ups last season.)

The fighting spirit that makes him such a great offensive rebounder just doesn't carry over to post battles on the other end. Faried usually faces a size disadvantage, but opponents can back him down, stand him straight up, and slither right around him without much of a challenge. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=13&t=1285770&start=180#sthash.ZgzMCpTW.dpuf

See Trevor Booker. Its a problem having a player like that starting. But great bench players.

[TGW]

^^^He still has a PER of 20, and like Booker, is clearly hands down the best option they have at that position.

[Ruzious]

Who's the NBA's best kept secret? I think the right choice is a player who was a free agent signed last offseason to a 2 year contract for 5 mil a year. He's only played 7 games this season and 19 minutes per game, but he is first in the NBA in TS% and second only to Lebron James in PER.

there has got to be a catch...

why only 7 games and 19 mpg?

just getting healthy now?

can we reveal who you are talking about? I had to research to solve the mystery.

Btw, after 10 games, he's got a 25.8 PER, a TS% of 73%, and an eFG of 74%. And it's not like he's coming out of nowhere doing this. He's had a 21 plus PER each of the 2 previous seasons with outstanding efficiency each season. And Dallas re-signed him to a 2 year contract at 5 mil per year.

At this rate, could he end up being the best 20 minute a game player in history?

And why have the Mavs kept his minutes down?

[verbal8]

^^^He still has a PER of 20, and like Booker, is clearly hands down the best option they have at that position.

I think both players(Faried and Booker) would be best off in a line-up where they are the are paired with a longer better shooting forward. That would let them play SF on defense and let the other forward play PF.

[hands11]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10255605/cleveland-cavaliers-agree-trade-andrew-bynum-chicago-bulls-luol-deng

The Bulls got a future first-round draft pick owed to the Cavs by the Sacramento Kings from a 2011 trade for J.J. Hickson. The Bulls will get the Kings' pick if it falls outside the top 12 in 2014 or outside the top 10 picks in 2015, 2016 or 2017.

The Bulls also got the 2015 and 2016 second-round picks the Portland Trail Blazers owed the Cavs.

In a final piece, the Bulls will be able to swap draft positions with the Cavs in 2015 as long as the Cavs' draft pick is outside the top 14 picks.

--- Breaking it down.
So CLE gave up an extra first pick they had that isn't going to yield a first in this years draft since the SAC pick is certain to be in the top 12. This is a pick they haven't been able to cash in on themselves in 2012 and 2013 because SAC keep sucking. So the sweet spot for Chicago is getting in the lottery at 11-14th in 2015 2016, 2017, with a small chance of moving up into top 3. That would take SAC being 17th to 20th worst team in the league, which is a decently small window but could happen over a 3 year window starting in 2015. Otherwise its outside the lottery and its no better the 15th pick. So Chicago can bank on no more then that. A 15th or later pick in 2015, 16, 2017

Two 2nds from Portland which look to be low picks and not until 2015 and 2016.

And they get to swap picks 2015 firsts with Cleavland if Cleveland isn't in the playoffs in 2015. So this would benefit Chicago if they were really good in 2015 and Cleveland was good enough to be in the playoff but not as good as Chicago who is in the playoffs. If Cleveland isn't in the playoffs, they keep the pick. But if they are both in, there is potential for Chicago to move up a few slots after the 14th pick. Something like they had the 22nd and Cleveland had the 16th. They can move up 6 slots. Lots of ifs and buts here.

So Cleveland like gave up a mid first in 2015, or 2016, or 2017 that has a small chance of a better pick.
Two late 2nds in 2015, 2016 and
they [u]might [/u]lose a few positions in the middle of the 2015 draft if both teams are in the playoff

And Cleveland keep their own first and 2nds. They added a legit star SF that bring offense and defense which was their teams biggest whole to a team that needed to add legit winning vets added so their best asset Kyrie doesn't rot on a losing team. Like the Wizards, they need to get Kyrie in the playoff so he can grow up with that experience early. The team now have add Jack and Deng to Kyrie to go along with Anderson Varejao and they have Tristan at PF and a young under performing #1 A Bennett. And they got to add that for singing Bynum for no assets over the summer ? And all it took was giving up and extra mid first in 2015-2017 and a couple late 2nds.

I think it was a smart move for Cleveland.

Kyrie, Deng, Tristan, Anderson backed up by Jack is legit to start winning and make the playoffs in a weak East. They now also have a better environment to bring along Waiter and Bennett. Tyler Zeller is big enough to back up the Mop. And they still have their 2014 first and 2nd picks. And they have cap room. And if they don't make the playoffs, they still have a lottery pick in the 2014 draft.

Not seeing why anyone would think Cleveland didn't do well with this move.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... birdmester

Grantland breaking it down.

In the second Birdmester of the NBA season, Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose discuss the highly touted 2014 NBA draft class and ask who the "Keep Gettin' Dem Checks" MVP is thus far.

[fishercob]

Jrue Holiday now out for an extended period of time; man there have been tons of injuries so far.

Philly is going likely to have two lotto picks -- the pick they got from New Orleans is only top-5 protected.

They'll be crazy young and inexperienced next year, but they could be crazy talented -- MCW, Noel, and their two high picks.

New Orleans way overpaid for Holiday (and Tyreke Evans, AND Eric Gordon). They won't have meaningful cap room this year or a first round pick.

[Rafael122]

Jrue Holiday now out for an extended period of time; man there have been tons of injuries so far.

Philly is going likely to have two lotto picks -- the pick they got from New Orleans is only top-5 protected.

They'll be crazy young and inexperienced next year, but they could be crazy talented -- MCW, Noel, and their two high picks.

New Orleans way overpaid for Holiday (and Tyreke Evans, AND Eric Gordon). They won't have meaningful cap room this year or a first round pick.

Depends on how the season goes, but based on current standings, NOP will basically be picking around 11th. The East being terrible is to blame, NOP may win 35 games, in a normal draft that could be a top 8 pick, but b/c the East is horrible, it's a late lotto pick.

Edit: But now that I think about it, 2 lotto picks helps Philly get more ping pong balls.

[fishercob]

With Holiday and Anderson out, NOP will struggle.

[verbal8]

Jrue Holiday now out for an extended period of time; man there have been tons of injuries so far.

Philly is going likely to have two lotto picks -- the pick they got from New Orleans is only top-5 protected.

They'll be crazy young and inexperienced next year, but they could be crazy talented -- MCW, Noel, and their two high picks.

New Orleans way overpaid for Holiday (and Tyreke Evans, AND Eric Gordon). They won't have meaningful cap room this year or a first round pick.

Depends on how the season goes, but based on current standings, NOP will basically be picking around 11th. The East being terrible is to blame, NOP may win 35 games, in a normal draft that could be a top 8 pick, but b/c the East is horrible, it's a late lotto pick.

Edit: But now that I think about it, 2 lotto picks helps Philly get more ping pong balls.

It doesn't help if the other team's pick is top 5 protected since you can only move into the top 3.

[Kanyewest]

Rudy Gay has been playing well. His TS% is at 59.5 with Sacracmento, with Toronto it was at 47%.

[verbal8]

Rudy Gay has been playing well. His TS% is at 59.5 with Sacracmento, with Toronto it was at 47%.

Has his shot selection changed? His stats outside of shooting look very similar.

Cousins also is much more efficient than he has been in the past. The King's big issue is on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically they are giving up an EFG% of .521. Basically their average opponent produces a little bit better than Gortat offensively.

[FAH1223]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MrMichaelLee/status/423503595779014656[/tweet]

[dckingsfan]

Rudy Gay has been playing well. His TS% is at 59.5 with Sacracmento, with Toronto it was at 47%.

Has his shot selection changed? His stats outside of shooting look very similar.

Cousins also is much more efficient than he has been in the past. The King's big issue is on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically they are giving up an EFG% of .521. Basically their average opponent produces a little bit better than Gortat offensively.

Agreed, with Thomas/Gay/Cousins - they are covered and becoming quite efficient on the offensive end. They are missing a couple of defensive stoppers to be able to get to the playoff level in the west. Asik type + Tony Allen type.

[Nivek]

Gay is shooting less frequently in SAC than he did in TOR, which could be contributing to his improved percentages. OR, there could be a regression to the mean coming his way soon. Here's a look at Gay in SAC vs. TOR this season:

Code: Select all

PER40   SAC     TOR
GMS     15      18
MPG     35.8    35.5
Usg     23.8%   28.7%
ortg    110     89
efg     .550    .421
2pt%    .572    .391
3pt%    .300    .373
ft%     .846    .773
3FA     3.1     4.0
FTA     6.1     5.9
TSA48   23.2    29.2
orb     1.5     2.0
drb     5.0     7.0
reb     6.4     9.0
ast     3.3     2.7
stl     1.5     1.9
blk     1.1     1.6
tov     3.6     4.0
pf      2.7     3.2
pts     24.2    23.6
PPA     145     75


Stats are per 40 minutes and pace adjusted to a 100-possession game. Fewer rebounds, probably as a result of sharing the floor with Cousins, who's a rebounding machine. Assists are up a bit, turnovers down. Big difference is is 2pt shooting. I don't think Gay will continue shooting 57% on 2pt attempts. That would put him in the league's top 15-20 in 2pt percentage, which ain't reality.

[tontoz]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MrMichaelLee/status/423503595779014656[/tweet]

[jivelikenice]

If Philly is in the lotto this year and next, that first turns into a '15 and '16 2nd round pick I believe. So the return is most likely three 2nd round picks (1 in '15 and two '16) for Crawford and Brooks. Crawford has always had minimal value around the league.

[LyricalRico]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MrMichaelLee/status/423503595779014656[/tweet]

Lee needs to confirm the facts. From the Crawford thread:

So the Celtics trade Crawford's expiring contract for Joel Anthony's 2015 expiring contract plus two 2nd round picks. (Technically, it's one 2nd plus Philly's lotto protected 1st which defaults to a 2nd rounder if the Sixers miss the playoffs this year and next year.)

So, yeah. Crawford has no real value in the trade. Those 2nd rounders are compensation for the Celtics absorbing Joel Anthony's 2015 salary.

Crawford must be a real ass in the locker room. He is now on his 4th team despite being a reasonably productive player. Nobody wants him.