Playoff Race (with updated Hollinger odds)

JTrain · Post #1 » by **JTrain** » Sun Jan 12, 2014 1:09 am

4/2

3/25

3/7

3/3

2/27

2/23

2/14 ALL-STAR BREAK

2/9

2/3

1/30

1/29

1/27

Projected wins for 6 through 11 are very tight: 49, 47 (Suns), 46, 45, 44, 43.

1/25

1/23

AFTER 1/13

Hollinger has the final standings projected as this:

6. Phoenix 48-34
6. Houston 48-34
6. Minnesota 48-34
9. Dallas 46-34

Of course, if we lose to teams like the Pistons much more, we won't have to worry about a close race. :cry:

Ring_Wanted · Post #2 » by **Ring_Wanted** » Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:27 am

This playoff odds he keeps throwing around every season is some of the dumbest stuff I've seen since the '2010 Free Agent Lottery Simulator'.

Post #3 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:55 am

Ring_Wanted wrote:This playoff odds he keeps throwing around every season is some of the dumbest stuff I've seen since the '2010 Free Agent Lottery Simulator'.

It's just a useful tool that gives you a little more insight than the actual standings.

Post #4 » by **bwgood77** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:55 am

JTrain wrote:Hollinger has the final standings projected as this:

6. Phoenix 48-34
6. Houston 48-34
6. Minnesota 48-34
9. Dallas 46-34

Of course, if we lose to teams like the Pistons much more, we won't have to worry about a close race.

His formula though doesn't account for injuries, so a team like Memphis will probably be right there too when it's all said and done.

JTrain · Post #5 » by **JTrain** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:39 am

bwgood77 wrote:
JTrain wrote:Hollinger has the final standings projected as this:

6. Phoenix 48-34
6. Houston 48-34
6. Minnesota 48-34
9. Dallas 46-34

Of course, if we lose to teams like the Pistons much more, we won't have to worry about a close race.

His formula though doesn't account for injuries, so a team like Memphis will probably be right there too when it's all said and done.

It's true that the odds don't explicitly take in injury information, but the Power Rankings (which the odds use for calculations) do take into account how a team is playing recently, so once a team has a chance to play a few games without the injured player (like the Suns in the past week) the injury will be reflected in the playoff odds and record projections.

JTrain · Post #6 » by **JTrain** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 10:30 am

Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

RunDogGun · Post #7 » by **RunDogGun** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:19 pm

JTrain wrote:Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

I don't know why, but Dallas has had two game winning plays in which they did foul but the refs didn't call squat. In both of those games, the league has had to apologize for not making the clear foul calls. So we can root against Dallas, but the league seems to be helping them win games.

Bogyo · Post #8 » by **Bogyo** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:27 pm

JTrain wrote:Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

Only rooting against Dallas. If Minny wont make the playoffs, they will tank away "our" draftpick in the last part of the season for sure!

JTrain · Post #9 » by **JTrain** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:21 pm

Bogyo wrote:
JTrain wrote:Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

Only rooting against Dallas. If Minny wont make the playoffs, they will tank away "our" draftpick in the last part of the season for sure!

If Minny finishes 9th, we still get their pick, right? Because it looks like if they don't make the playoffs they will probably finish 9th.

King4Day · Post #10 » by **King4Day** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:13 pm

Bogyo wrote:
JTrain wrote:Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

Only rooting against Dallas. If Minny wont make the playoffs, they will tank away "our" draftpick in the last part of the season for sure!

Yea I really think this year is our only true chance at getting their pick. If they struggle next year, they will probably deal Love and be worse. We have to root for them this season.

King4Day · Post #11 » by **King4Day** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:14 pm

JTrain wrote:
Bogyo wrote:
JTrain wrote:Bottom line at this point, root hard against Dallas and Minnesota.

Oh, and start winning.

Only rooting against Dallas. If Minny wont make the playoffs, they will tank away "our" draftpick in the last part of the season for sure!

If Minny finishes 9th, we still get their pick, right? Because it looks like if they don't make the playoffs they will probably finish 9th.

That likely would mean the 14th pick so I'd agree. That's best case scenario though. That could be good in 2 ways. Love would be angry, and we take their pick.

Post #12 » by **lilfishi22** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:41 pm

DarkHawk wrote:That likely would mean the 14th pick so I'd agree. That's best case scenario though. That could be good in 2 ways. Love would be angry, and we take their pick.

The double whammy. Would love to see that happen

JTrain · Post #13 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:29 am

Wolves lose to Kings in great game...

JTrain · Post #14 » by **JTrain** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:25 am

Dallas loses crazy finish. 17 point lead with 4:35 remaining

Post #15 » by **bwgood77** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 4:12 pm

Wow, Dallas lost? That's crazy.

I think at this point, unless Minnesota goes onto a a tear and has a winning streak at some point, we will never see that first rounder from them.

I'd say it's most likely we see two picks in the mid to late teens this year, and then one at 29 or 30.

Bogyo · Post #16 » by **Bogyo** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:59 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:
DarkHawk wrote:That likely would mean the 14th pick so I'd agree. That's best case scenario though. That could be good in 2 ways. Love would be angry, and we take their pick.

The double whammy. Would love to see that happen

If they see they dont have a chance to get into the playoffs I'm sure they'll sit some of their guys with "injuries" and finish 10th 11th west... they won't let us have the 14th pick for sure... We need Denver, Dallas (maybe us?) falling, cuz Memphis is only going higher.

LukasBMW · Post #17 » by **LukasBMW** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Word, Memphis is going to make a run. They are way better then their record indicates.

Saberestar · Post #18 » by **Saberestar** » Thu Jan 16, 2014 10:10 pm

Big game tomorrow against Dallas. We will wear alternate jerseys!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/caseytaggatz/status/423938457140854784[/tweet]

JTrain · Post #19 » by **JTrain** » Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:07 am

70.3%! Minnesota and Dallas are still hot on the trail for those last two spots. Houston looks safe. Memphis and Denver have a tough climb with their schedules.

Still early though.

Post #20 » by **bwgood77** » Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:54 am

JTrain wrote:It's true that the odds don't explicitly take in injury information, but the Power Rankings (which the odds use for calculations) do take into account how a team is playing recently, so once a team has a chance to play a few games without the injured player (like the Suns in the past week) the injury will be reflected in the playoff odds and record projections.

Yes, it will, but a large component of these projections is pt differential, and with Gasol out for a month, that skews that quite a bit, so I think you have to take that into account with them and add a couple of wins.

Of course you could say the same with Bledsoe, Paul, Iguodala, and other players who have missed significant time.