Nene

[payitforward]

Nene WOW

Healthy, he is one of the best PF in the league as a P/PF

9 assists

Nene or the bobblehead?

Great guy, Nene, and once upon a time a tremendous player too. You are certainly right that for a 4-5 to get 9 assists in 34 minutes is terrific. And he also had 2 steals and 3 blocks.

So... those are the cherry-picked numbers. The cherry-bomb numbers are that in 34 minutes he had exactly 4 rebounds and went 6-15.

Overall, he had an Ok game, nothing special, and *certainly* not demonstrating that "he is one of the best PF in the league."

PIF, look in the mirror. You'll see the cotton-pickin' cherry-picker. Nene scored 19 points, had 4 boards, 9 assists to 1 turnover, 2 steals, and 3 blocks and all you can say is - meh, he shot 6 of 15 with 4 rebounds.

Did the team need him to grab a lot of boards - considering they out-rebounded the Heat? ...and considering he had the highest +/- on the team - which seems to happen a lot.

Must be a coincidence.

Dat, you cherry-picking cotton-picker, look at Nene's numbers on the season -- they're down from last year, which was a down year from his previous (with Denver -- and *way down* from his few end of season games w/ us 2 years back), which was down from the year before that.

Highest +/- on the team. First of we're a .400 team, so... what's your point. Second, when he's not on the floor we often have the opportunity to see what JV or KS (or AH before he was hurt) can do -- i.e. nothing much. So of course he bumps us up.

Keep in mind I was responding to Hands saying he was one of the best PFs in the game. I'm not a Nene hater -- he's just sliding down the last1/3 of his career. You really doubt that? Get real.

[payitforward]

Oh, and one more thing:

...Did the team need him to grab a lot of boards ...

And what about when they do need him to?

He's averaging 8 rebounds per 40 minutes on the year.

[Ruzious]

Oh, and one more thing:

...Did the team need him to grab a lot of boards ...

And what about when they do need him to?

He's averaging 8 rebounds per 40 minutes on the year.

The question is - what are the team rebounding stats when he plays. Overall, the Wizards get 50.2 of the rebounds when he's in the game this season. http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS14.HTM The Wizards are a much better defensive rebounding team when he's in the game vs when he's out and visa versa on the offensive boards. They're 5% better on the defensive boards and 5% worse on the offensive boards. I think if you look at the team stats of the NBA's best teams over the last decade or so, good defensive rebounding is much more likely to be associated with them than good offensive rebounding.

[go'stags]

Nene's teams have always rebounded better/fine defensively with him on the court.

It was either Zack Lowe or Nivek that said one of the new its of info that has come from the new tracking cameras is that no one attempts to box out more than Nene, and no one is more successful at boxing out than Nene. Nothing wrong with him on the boards.

[padovani31]

yep, box out! something i try to understand the commets over here. People complaing about nene rebound when its pretty clear that he's a guy that primer box out.

[hands11]

PIF

Is it an impossibility for you to just once extract the actually facts of what anyone posts without chopping up what they wrote to fit your narrative so you can be a sour puss.

"Healthy, he is one of the best PF in the league as a P/PF" That is what I wrote. Its not a long sentence.

[fishercob]

I agree that Nene had a great game and hope he has many more.

That said, when I look at the data in aggregate, I see a markedly less productive player than the one who signed the extension in Denver. I had held out hope that Nene was going to lose weight, get healthy, and boost his production. But the sad truth is he's just not THAT good anymore.

Well, all I can tell you is - he makes the team dramatically better because he does what the team needs. And making the team better is the most important characteristic of a good player.

I don't disagree, Ruz. But that is partly a function of the how bad the Wizards options are to replace Nene are. Booker has been pretty good, but is weak on D. And Vesely and Seraphin have been mostly awful.

When Nene got his 5 year, $65M contract these were his career numbers:

Ortg: 113
Drtg; 103
WS/48: .152
TS: 60.5%

Since then:

Ortg: 104
Drtg: 102
WS/48: .118
TS: 54.8%

Big difference, right? Well if you think that's bad, look at just how good Nene was in the 3 seasons prior to to signing this new deal:

Ortg: 123
Drtg: 105
WS/48: .188
TS: 64.4%

His production has fallen off a cliff, unfortunately.

[stevemcqueen1]

Nene boxes out a man rather than boxes out a zone and it works far better.

Good defensive rebounding is also more fundamental and impactful than good offensive rebounding, you can't rely on consistent offensive rebounding. It's really about finishing your defense. You have to end possessions after you do your work on defense. Then you get the stop and it flows into your offense and you get in rhythm and play well and efficiently. When you get the stop but they get the rebound and possession resets, that puts a strain on your line up and takes your team out of rhythm.

The only thing Nene really takes off the table on the court is his FT shooting. And even that isn't that bad by the standards of his position, he's a 68% shooter on fairly high volume for his career.

Also, the reason Nene's shooting percentages dropped is because he's in a new system that has him take lots of mid range jumpers. His role is different in DC than it was in Denver.

[fishercob]

Also, the reason Nene's shooting percentages dropped is because he's in a new system that has him take lots of mid range jumpers. His role is different in DC than it was in Denver.

Is Nene taking fewer shots at the rim because the "system" asks him to, or is he taking fewer shots at the rim because he has declined physically to the point that he can't get to rim?

The data does corroborate that he's shooting far less at the rim, and interestingly, that he's just as efficient from close in as he was when he was a stud in Denver. But he's shooting at the rim much less and from less efficient spots much more:

Basketball reference doesn't have this year's data, but let's look at last season and work backwards:

2012-2013
At Rim: .699 efg% on 236 FGA (40% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .357 efg% on 140 FGA (24% of FGA)
10-16: .315 efg% on 108 FGA (18% of FGA)
16 feet+: .330 efg% on 109 FGA (18% of FGA)

2011-2012
At Rim: .691 efg% on 204 FGA (52% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .312 efg% on 64 FGA (16% of FGA)
10-16: .420 efg% on 50 FGA (13% of FGA)
16 feet+: .408efg% on 71 FGA (18% of 3FGA)

2010-2011
At Rim: .703 efg% on 454 FGA (65% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .440 efg% on 116 FGA (17% of FGA)
10-16: .312 efg% on 48 FGA (7% of FGA)
16 feet+: .494 efg% on 77 FGA (11% of FGA)

2009-2010
At Rim: .698 efg% on 487 FGA (68% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .330 efg% on 99 FGA (14% of FGA)
10-16: .463 efg% on 67 FGA (9% of FGA)
16 feet+: .385 efg% on 91 FGA (10% of FGA)

This is somewhat startling to me. I would have thought that Nene's efficiency at rim (and to a less extent at 3-10 feet) would have dropped a ton and be the culprit for his drop in overall shooting efficiency. But it's really not the case; he's just shooting less from the rim and more from midrange and beyond. His last two full seasons in Denver he took 19% of his shots from outside 10 feet. Then the two years post extension he took 31% and 36% of his shots outside 10 feet.

So again, the key question is WHY has the distibution of his shot location changed so much. My suspicion is that it represents Nene just declining -- he can't get to the rim. Perhaps some of it is a function of the quality of his teammates; his teams here aren't close to as good as what they were in Denver, so the team on a whole gets worse shots and he's forced to shoot much more from outside. If this is primarily a function of scheme -- if this offense has Nene shooting from here by design -- the Wizards coaching staff should be taken out back and shot.

I don't think we can know the answer to the "why" question without studying a whole bunch of game film and/or talking to the coaching staff.

[Ruzious]

I agree that Nene had a great game and hope he has many more.

That said, when I look at the data in aggregate, I see a markedly less productive player than the one who signed the extension in Denver. I had held out hope that Nene was going to lose weight, get healthy, and boost his production. But the sad truth is he's just not THAT good anymore.

Well, all I can tell you is - he makes the team dramatically better because he does what the team needs. And making the team better is the most important characteristic of a good player.

I don't disagree, Ruz. But that is partly a function of the how bad the Wizards options are to replace Nene are. Booker has been pretty good, but is weak on D. And Vesely and Seraphin have been mostly awful.

When Nene got his 5 year, $65M contract these were his career numbers:

Ortg: 113
Drtg; 103
WS/48: .152
TS: 60.5%

Since then:

Ortg: 104
Drtg: 102
WS/48: .118
TS: 54.8%

Big difference, right? Well if you think that's bad, look at just how good Nene was in the 3 seasons prior to to signing this new deal:

Ortg: 123
Drtg: 105
WS/48: .188
TS: 64.4%

His production has fallen off a cliff, unfortunately.

Again, I think you're looking at the wrong stats. I think we agree that Booker is a good backup PF when he's healthy. I posted not long ago (I'm too lasy to look for it) the DRAMATIC differences between how the team performs with Booker on the floor vs how it performs with Nene on the floor - with all other players remaining the same.

If Booker is a pretty good player, and the team plays dramatically better simply by replacing Booker with Nene, that tells me Nene is a lot better than Booker. If Booker's pretty good, then what does that say about Nene? I think that's a better way of evaluating him rather than comparing his individual numbers to when he played on a different team with a different role (as Steve mentioned) - not to mention a different position.

[GhostsOfGil]

So again, the key question is WHY has the distibution of his shot location changed so much. My suspicion is that it represents Nene just declining -- he can't get to the rim. Perhaps some of it is a function of the quality of his teammates; his teams here aren't close to as good as what they were in Denver, so the team on a whole gets worse shots and he's forced to shoot much more from outside. If this is primarily a function of scheme -- if this offense has Nene shooting from here by design -- the Wizards coaching staff should be taken out back and shot.

I don't think we can know the answer to the "why" question without studying a whole bunch of game film and/or talking to the coaching staff.

I remember when he first came to Washington, he said how weird it was to have the coaching staff encouraging him to shoot the mid range shot. He then went on to say that Karl always had him play in the post. This could be part of it.

[fishercob]

Well, all I can tell you is - he makes the team dramatically better because he does what the team needs. And making the team better is the most important characteristic of a good player.

I don't disagree, Ruz. But that is partly a function of the how bad the Wizards options are to replace Nene are. Booker has been pretty good, but is weak on D. And Vesely and Seraphin have been mostly awful.

When Nene got his 5 year, $65M contract these were his career numbers:

Ortg: 113
Drtg; 103
WS/48: .152
TS: 60.5%

Since then:

Ortg: 104
Drtg: 102
WS/48: .118
TS: 54.8%

Big difference, right? Well if you think that's bad, look at just how good Nene was in the 3 seasons prior to to signing this new deal:

Ortg: 123
Drtg: 105
WS/48: .188
TS: 64.4%

His production has fallen off a cliff, unfortunately.

Again, I think you're looking at the wrong stats. I think we agree that Booker is a good backup PF when he's healthy. I posted not long ago (I'm too lasy to look for it) the DRAMATIC differences between how the team performs with Booker on the floor vs how it performs with Nene on the floor - with all other players remaining the same.

If Booker is a pretty good player, and the team plays dramatically better simply by replacing Booker with Nene, that tells me Nene is a lot better than Booker. If Booker's pretty good, then what does that say about Nene? I think that's a better way of evaluating him rather than comparing his individual numbers to when he played on a different team with a different role (as Steve mentioned) - not to mention a different position.

I don't need convincing that Nene is better than Booker. Booker is indeed pretty good on offense, but he's average or worse on D. So I think that accounts for some of the delta. But I'm not convinced that Nene isn't a far less productive player than he was before this contract, nor am I convinced that his role is so different.

Edit: Something has been called to my attention to indicate that his role may indeed be different -- his usage rate. It's much higher now than it was during his dominance in Denver. That would seem to point to the whole "worse teammates" thing that I alluded to in one of my earlier posts.

[stevemcqueen1]

So again, the key question is WHY has the distibution of his shot location changed so much. My suspicion is that it represents Nene just declining -- he can't get to the rim. Perhaps some of it is a function of the quality of his teammates; his teams here aren't close to as good as what they were in Denver, so the team on a whole gets worse shots and he's forced to shoot much more from outside. If this is primarily a function of scheme -- if this offense has Nene shooting from here by design -- the Wizards coaching staff should be taken out back and shot.

I don't think we can know the answer to the "why" question without studying a whole bunch of game film and/or talking to the coaching staff.

I remember when he first came to Washington, he said how weird it was to have the coaching staff encouraging him to shoot the mid range shot. He then went on to say that Karl always had him play in the post. This could be part of it.

First off, good post fisher. I'm going to respond by quoting Gil because he raises a very interesting point.

Gil is correct that Karl discouraged Nene from taking jumpers and our staff takes a very different approach. It wasn't just Nene either. Karl discourages all of his players from taking two point jumpers. And our staff uses the two point jumper as a weapon, a very big part of our offense. Keep in mind who our coaches are. Wittman was a fabulous jump shooter in his day and Cassell's mid range jumper was his bread and butter and he was one of the best at it in his time. You're talking about two wholly different offensive philosophies IMO.

Check this out: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... eorge-karl

In the article it points out that Karl ran an ad hoc system in Denver suited to his young, fast team called "random basketball." Basically it uses a set of rules to guide offensive play rather than scheming up a specific group of set plays. His rules:

1.) Push the tempo as much as possible, including after made buckets.
2.) Don't hold the ball.
3.) Don't take two point jumpers.

Nene isn't getting as many transition finishes here because, even though we've wanted to be a fast break team since we got John Wall, we've never run a true fast break offense and our pace isn't close to Denver's. We run a lot more half court stuff, it's not a ball movement scheme, it's a drive and kick scheme that clears players out of the paint for Wall and he creates open jumpers for his teammates.

Nene has never been a high flyer but he really doesn't have any lift any more. But he's adjusted and this year he's getting to the rim at will. I don't think the issue is that he can't get to the rim any more. I haven't seen anyone consistently stop him so far. His quick step is still there, he uses his strength and counter moves extremely well, and he's good at finding the space along the baseline to get that look at the rim.

I think his foot injuries have played a part, if for no other reason than they've made his minutes more inconsistent.

But I think the primary differences are that Nene is a playmaker and #2 option now, not a finisher and lesser option like he was in Denver, and he plays in an offense where the pick and fade is a very big part of our game. One of Nene's most common touches is to pass to him in the high post and ISO the ball where Nene's options are either to complete the give and go with the wing, drive the basket, or face up and shoot the mid range shot. Nene usually gets doubled, then he either faces up, passes out, or hits the cutting wing most of the time. When the help is slow from the weak side he takes it to the rim and usually gets there fine. But he's not catching the ball at the basket like he did in Denver. He's creating his own shots from post up ISOs. Much more difficult.

All of our players play farther from the basket than average IMO, or farther than they did with previous teams. Gortat, Booker, and Seraphin all shoot a lot of mid range jumpers too. Those shots are usually open after screens because our guards are fast and our three point shooters have to be covered.

And I actually think Nene's jumper has progressed since he's been here. It's been better this season than it was last year at least. He now reliably knocks down his open looks from 16+ feet.

[Ruzious]

Good posts by all. One other thought - If Nene were getting the calls he should be getting (and I think he's the 1 guy on the Wiz that has a legitimate complaint), how would that have effected his efficiency and production numbers? Maybe it doesn't matter - because well... he hasn't gotten them, so it is what it is. But if that turns around for him and he starts getting those calls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers improve.

[tontoz]

Like fish said Nene's strong +/- is because of his defense, not his offense. The Wizards are only +.8 on offense with Nene vs +.6 with Booker.

http://www.82games.com/1314/13WAS14.HTM#onoff



Nene's offense hasn't been that good and is trending down.

[DCZards]

Nene's offense, like his rebounding, has to be looked at beyond his personal #s. His skills as a passer (Big Brazilian had 9 assists against the Heat) and facilitator often pays off in easy buckets for teammates. Yes, Nene's offense may be "trending down" but why would anyone be surprised by that given his age and health.

I do like the fact that Nene's midrange jumper has been pretty consistent, which is critical since the Zards offense often ends up with him getting an open look from 12-15 feet.

Agree with Ruz on the great posts.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Also, the reason Nene's shooting percentages dropped is because he's in a new system that has him take lots of mid range jumpers. His role is different in DC than it was in Denver.

Is Nene taking fewer shots at the rim because the "system" asks him to, or is he taking fewer shots at the rim because he has declined physically to the point that he can't get to rim?

The data does corroborate that he's shooting far less at the rim, and interestingly, that he's just as efficient from close in as he was when he was a stud in Denver. But he's shooting at the rim much less and from less efficient spots much more:

Basketball reference doesn't have this year's data, but let's look at last season and work backwards:

2012-2013
At Rim: .699 efg% on 236 FGA (40% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .357 efg% on 140 FGA (24% of FGA)
10-16: .315 efg% on 108 FGA (18% of FGA)
16 feet+: .330 efg% on 109 FGA (18% of FGA)

2011-2012
At Rim: .691 efg% on 204 FGA (52% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .312 efg% on 64 FGA (16% of FGA)
10-16: .420 efg% on 50 FGA (13% of FGA)
16 feet+: .408efg% on 71 FGA (18% of 3FGA)

2010-2011
At Rim: .703 efg% on 454 FGA (65% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .440 efg% on 116 FGA (17% of FGA)
10-16: .312 efg% on 48 FGA (7% of FGA)
16 feet+: .494 efg% on 77 FGA (11% of FGA)

2009-2010
At Rim: .698 efg% on 487 FGA (68% of FGA)
3-10 Feet: .330 efg% on 99 FGA (14% of FGA)
10-16: .463 efg% on 67 FGA (9% of FGA)
16 feet+: .385 efg% on 91 FGA (10% of FGA)

This is somewhat startling to me. I would have thought that Nene's efficiency at rim (and to a less extent at 3-10 feet) would have dropped a ton and be the culprit for his drop in overall shooting efficiency. But it's really not the case; he's just shooting less from the rim and more from midrange and beyond. His last two full seasons in Denver he took 19% of his shots from outside 10 feet. Then the two years post extension he took 31% and 36% of his shots outside 10 feet.

So again, the key question is WHY has the distibution of his shot location changed so much. My suspicion is that it represents Nene just declining -- he can't get to the rim. Perhaps some of it is a function of the quality of his teammates; his teams here aren't close to as good as what they were in Denver, so the team on a whole gets worse shots and he's forced to shoot much more from outside. If this is primarily a function of scheme -- if this offense has Nene shooting from here by design -- the Wizards coaching staff should be taken out back and shot.

I don't think we can know the answer to the "why" question without studying a whole bunch of game film and/or talking to the coaching staff.

fish, I don't know how Nene got so many shots near the rim in Denver. My guess is playing with Carmelo helped get him many put backs. Having a rebounder and a high post shooter, Camby, at C also probably got Nene shots primarily at or near the rim. Finally, George Karl coached a system where he had Galinari and other wings who shot jumpers. As a big, Nene stayed inside.

OTOH with Washington, Nene has teammates who get to the rim. Often, Nene facilitates the offense from the elbows. Wall drives inside and kicks the ball back out for jump shots by others, including Nene.

My theory is those factors and Nene also slowing down are why he shoots less shots at the rim.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[dckingsfan]

Nene wasn't a primary ball handler in Denver... They had Carmelo

Now he is one of the primary ball handlers in the halfcourt sets... has his Assist % gone up?

[GhostsOfGil]

Good posts by all. One other thought - If Nene were getting the calls he should be getting (and I think he's the 1 guy on the Wiz that has a legitimate complaint), how would that have effected his efficiency and production numbers? Maybe it doesn't matter - because well... he hasn't gotten them, so it is what it is. But if that turns around for him and he starts getting those calls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers improve.

Hmm. Well despite playing more of face up game, he's still averaging 6.5 FTA per 36 minutes. 1 above his career average.

[Ruzious]

Good posts by all. One other thought - If Nene were getting the calls he should be getting (and I think he's the 1 guy on the Wiz that has a legitimate complaint), how would that have effected his efficiency and production numbers? Maybe it doesn't matter - because well... he hasn't gotten them, so it is what it is. But if that turns around for him and he starts getting those calls, it'll be interesting to see if his numbers improve.

Hmm. Well despite playing more of face up game, he's still averaging 6.5 FTA per 36 minutes. 1 above his career average.

Because he takes it to the hoop hard on a regular basis - which I don't think he did much of in Denver - on teams generally full of ball-hogs. You watch the games - Do you think he shouldn't be getting significantly more FT's this season - say... 2 or 3 more attempts per 36 minutes?