Grandpa Waiters wrote:acrossthecourt wrote:Grandpa Waiters wrote:
Nope. If Dr. J came to the NBA in '77 and his stats remained constant you could argue that the two leagues (NBA and ABA) were on par talent wise. If he came in and his stats exploded you could argue that the NBA was a weaker league. However, his stats (especially scoring) decreased across the board when he arrived in '77. You can make the best case by arguing that the NBA was that much better and had superior talent and that's why his numbers tanked.
You're going to base the strength of an entire league on the stats of one player?
You're not making a best case at all. The ABA was swept under the rug by the NBA, but more comprehensive analysis shows they were very close in strength by '76.
I have a book called "Loose Balls". It's a book about the ABA comprised of tidbits and interviews conducted with players, coaches, executives and announcers like Bob Costas who were a part of the league. The general consensus was that the top tier stars (Erving, Moses, Thompson, Gervin, Gilmore, Barry etc) were NBA caliber but that the second tier players were not. Also, it was a run and gun league full of gimmicks used to inflate stats (3 pointers) and attract fans (red, white and blue ball, dunk contest etc). Most of the players who only played in the ABA claimed it was on par with the NBA but the players who transitioned made it clear that the NBA was a superior league all the way around including competition. Their words, not mine. Anyway, it's a good read, check it out if the ABA interests you.
Tidbit and anecdotes have all the scientific rigor of astronomy.
And yes, I know the basic history of the league that nearly everyone parrots about the myths and weaknesses of the ABA.
How about this?
I grabbed every player from the 1977 season who played 500+ minutes that season and in the ABA or NBA the previous season. I looked at how their Win Shares per 48 minutes changed from '76 to '77. There was indeed a small drop in stats from the ABA to the NBA ... but there was a larger drop from the NBA players from the '76 season to '77. People forget this, but a few ABA teams folded and the players absorbed the NBA. This is in essence a contraction, and it makes the league a little more competitive. I looked at some of the other seasons in translating the ABA stats to the NBA. In the early years there was a huge drop from the ABA to the NBA, but not in the last three or four seasons of the league.
Win Shares is faulty? Doesn't prove anything? Okay, but a number of other people have done the same using different metrics and found the same result.
If you try to gauge league strength based on how the ABA teams did in the NBA, you'll come out with a distorted view. Since the NBA was angry at the ABA for being a pain in its side for years, when the merger happened ABA teams had to sell off their best players to cover entrance fees and other expenses (ABA teams could receive no money from TV for the rest of the 70's, a harsh penalty.) Thus, teams like the Nets did much worse in the NBA, but that's because the Nets (for example) watched Dr. J leave them.
But what if there was one strong ABA team that stayed intact? Maybe then we'd get more reliable data. Oh wait ... the Denver Nuggets stayed intact through the merger, so how did they do? Their SRS went from 5.5 to 5. (Remember, the league had the net effect of a contraction.) Their defense was actually the best in the league (but the ABA didn't play defense, right?)
Then you have the exhibition games between the ABA and NBA. For the last three seasons before the merger, the ABA beat the NBA teams by a large percentage, and even if you introduce HCA the ABA still has the strength to be on equal footing with the NBA.
But the ABA didn't win a title, so what's it matter? Well, five out of the ten starters in the championship game in 1977 were previous ABA players. Ten of the 24 all-star players that season were from the ABA. Four of the ten top scorers. They clearly had strength. Concentrating on ONE player's stats to prove the strength of an ENTIRE league is dubious. Maybe Dr. J peaked at age 25, but so what? He's an athletic forward; that's pretty normal. Plus, playing next to McGinnis and everyone else hurt his game, like LeBron in 2011. When he adapted, his stats were better than they were when he was 27. Does that mean he reversed the aging process? Of course not. It means you should do more complete analysis than "looks his points are down the ABA sucks.)
By the way, that Denver team that stayed together and led the NBA in defensive efficiency? That's the team Dr. J roasted in the title series -- 37.7ppg, 14.2rpg, 6.0apg, 3.0spg and 2.2bpg against one of the best defensive forwards ever in Bobby Jones.
Given your name of "Grandpa" and how you're condescendingly recommending a far from obscure book ("Oh there there, young one, calm down and check out some information I already knew!"), it's funny how you're the one who's trying to teach me about the ABA when it appears you're the one who's ignorant of its history.
I'll end with quotes from Loose Balls, which I'm actually not sure you've even read before it contradicts your statements:
The NBA felt that the ABA played no defense, certainly no team defense as it was known in the NBA. You could drive down the middle and do anything you wanted, because they had no real centers until Artis Gilmore. Really, we figured it was a glorified Eastern League -- at least that was the opinion until we started playing exhibition games.
When the exhibition games began, the view in the NBA was, "Now we'll show those guys." But then you know what happened -- the ABA teams won nearly as often as the NBA did. So the NBA took a different tack. They said, "Well, to us those games were exhibitions, while the ABA was playing them like the playoff finals. Besides, a lot of those games were in ABA arenas.
I distinctly recall a game at the Island Garden where the Nets beat the Celtics on Rick Barry's 3-pointer at the buzzer. Barry didn't surprise me, but Billy Paultz did. I considered Paultz just another nobody ABA center, but he showed no respect for Dave Cowens. He rebounded over Cowens. I saw that and I said, "What's this?" I also started to wonder if I had dismissed the ABA too quickly.
Those NBA-ABA games were intense. In one, Dave Cowens was ejected by Jack Madden for punting a basketball. Madden was one of the "renegade refs" who had jumped from the NBA to the ABA. In another game, Madden gave Tom Heinsohn seven technicals and ejected him. I went to ABA games, saw the Julius Ervings, the George Gervins, and the rest, and i respected their individual talent. But I never saw an ABA team play defense like the NBA did. Maybe I just didn't want to see it. So I refused to take the league seriously. When writers such as Jim O'Brien and Peter Vecsey wrote that the two leagues were very close, that some ABA teams were among the top five of all pro basketball teams, I thought they had no objectivity and that they were too close to the teams they were writing about to really understand pro basketball. Then came the merger, and Denver and San Antonio won division titles. What could I say? Guys like Jim O'Brien were right.
-- Bob Ryan