ATFL Western: (1) DHodgkins vs. (8) HeartBreakKid

MisterHibachi · Post #1 » by **MisterHibachi** » Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:49 pm

This is the thread for the match up of seeds 1 and 8 in the Western Conference of the All-Time Fantasy League.

General Discussion in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1293300
Draft was in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1294562
Playoff results in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1299878

Western Conference Quarterfinals: (1) DHodgkins vs. (8) HeartBreakKid

(1) DHodgkins
1. David Robinson (94-96)
2. Isiah Thomas (84-86)
3. Clyde Drexler (90-92)
4. Chris Webber (99-01)
5. Dominique Wilkins (86-88)
6. Alvin Robertson (86-88)
7. Rajon Rondo (10-12)
8. Marcus Camby (06-08)
9. Antoine Walker (02-04)
10. Latrell Sprewell (94-96)

(8) HeartBreakKid
1. Julius Erving (80-82)
2. Karl Malone (96-98)
3. Artis Gilmore (81-83)
4. John Stockton (90-92)
5. George Gervin (80-82)
6. Kevin Johnson (89-91)
7. Bill Laimbeer (89-91)
8. Bruce Bowen (03-05)
9. Richard Hamilton (05-07)
10. Andrew Bogut (06-08)

Judges
bastillon: HeartBreakKid
TMACFORMVP
penbeast0: HeartBreakKid
ronnymac2: HeartBreakKid
Doctor MJ: HeartBreakKid
SideshowBob: HeartBreakKid
Texas Chuck: DHodgkins
therealbig3: HeartBreakKid

In each match up, GMs will offer their preliminary strategy for beating the other team and reasons for why their team is stronger. GMs will also have the opportunity to respond to the opponent's strategy. Judges will offer any comments and questions they have of the GMs and finally will cast their vote for whichever team they think is stronger simply by saying 'Team A wins this matchup' or 'Team B wins this matchup'. Whoever gets more votes moves on.

Good luck!

DHodgkins · Post #2 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:12 am

Am I supposed to post my reasons that I'm going to win here or under the playoff page?

MisterHibachi · Post #3 » by **MisterHibachi** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:23 am

DHodgkins wrote:Am I supposed to post my reasons that I'm going to win here or under the playoff page?

Here. The playoff page is just for general comments on your drafting strategy. Your playoff strategy for this matchup go in this thread.

HeartBreakKid · Post #4 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:52 am

My roster

PG: John Stockton/Kevin Johnson
SG: George Gervin/Bruce Bowen/Rip Hamilton
SF: Dr.J/Bruce Bowen
PF: Karl Malone/Bill Lambeer
C: Artis Gilmore/ Bil Lambeer/ Andrew Bogut

My opponents roster (for reading convenience)

Spoiler:

Minutes and rotations

Spoiler:

Defensive analysis and strategy

Spoiler:

His team has a lot of athletes, but I question their range and ability to execute in a half court offense. I will run a half court offense. My team will look to limit the game to as few possessions as possible. My team has higher IQ players and more poise, so I am confident my team will be able to control the tempo.

Webber and Robinson can play in the half court, but neither of them are a down low presence. Webber especially will shy away from contact. From the low post, my team is about as safe as one can be in an all time match.

I will then point out his teams lack of shooting. None of his starters can shoot the 3 ball, with Isiah being his best bet, averaging his 84-86 years which is what my opponent is using, his 3% is only 29%. Not terrible for a player from his time, but this is 2014, and even given the benefit of the doubt, he is still a below part 3 point shooter.

So not only is my opponent's spacing compromised, but his offensive explosiveness is limited. If my opponent falls behind, he will have a hard time catching up. The best 3 point shooters on his team are Sprewell and Walker, which I am not worried about them (more on this).

Historically speaking, some of his key players have gotten their fair share of criticism in half court offenses. Clyde Drexler was always a transition beast, when the game slowed down, there have been many series in which he seriously struggled. Fortunately for him, Clyde has almost always had talented teammates to help him through, but here he has no teammate advantage like he did in real life.

David Robinson's numbers have noticeably fell off in playoff like situations. 27.5 points 52 FG% dropped to 24 points 46% FG.

Webbers have dropped off dramatically. 21 points on 39% FG to 24 points on 48%. That's 44 TS% in the playoffs, and only 52 TS% in the RS....

Rondo, Camby, Sprewell? Even Wilkins? His players are extremely limited offensively, and very easy to defend.

I just don't see the synergy. I'll have Karl bodying up Webber, exploiting this softness. Gilmore and Dr. J will be protecting the rim. I don't even really know if he has a go to scorer who is worth doubling (in an all time format).

Anyway, I won't need any cross match ups, so assume my PG will guard their PG and so on and so forth. At least with the starters since I don't know what strategy my opponent will utilize yet.

Offensive analysis and strategy

Spoiler:

Half court offense, using it nice and slow.

Gonna run PNR offense with Stockton and Malone doing their thang. Webber won't be able to guard Karl Malone without picking up fouls. If the PNR isn't falling through, we'll have Malone body up Webber down low and exploit Webber's post defense.

My second option will be what ever wing is guarded by Wilkins. I'll assume that is Dr.J, but if is Gervin then Gervin would be the second option. Wilkins is a very poor defender, and not only do I think Dr.J can smoke him with the ball, but with out the ball Wilkins will fall asleep and constantly lose track of Dr. J who was very good at playing without the ball.

My third option will be what ever wing is being guarded by Drexler. Ideally Gervin since he can also spread the floor.

Gilmore will be the ultimate clean up guy. Extremely high % (60% TS), he'll be roughing it up with David down low. Hopefully if David is forced out of certain rotations, Gilmore will be fed for an easy bucket. My team has very good interior passing with Malone and Dr.J, so I think Gilmore will make his presence felt. If Webber is on him, than Gilmore will likely foul Chris out pretty quickly (as well which would force Walker or Camby into the game).

So my team has good spacing between my guards. A legit all time slasher in Dr.J. Most of my players can play without the ball. Good PNR player, post players and interior passing. A legit QB in Stockton.

None of his perimeter players are lockdown defenders. Sprewell is the closest thing too one, and Rondo is a good defender but not a lockdown guy. Both guys are extremely easy to exploit offensively, so it's a double edged sword. My players should get what they want out on the perimeter.

Robinson is the biggest problem, but he'll have to cover an insane amount of ground. My team has too many weapons and my offense is very balanced.

The only problem my offense has amongst my starters is that Gervin may demand the ball more than what is needed. Not the worst thing in the world since he is an all time great scorer. With Stockton at the helm, I am confident that the right person will get the ball.

The Bench

Spoiler:

Intangibles

Spoiler:

My opponent's team lacks an identity. His best offensive players aren't any better than mine. His best defensive players aren't any better than mine (outside of Robinson, I will give him that, he is by far the best defender in the game). He has some players who are good in certain ways, but are easily exploitable - IE, a lack of guys who are 50/50 2 way players.

His offensively does not have great synergy. He has a scoring first-esque type of PG in Isiah Thomas, and his other PG in Rondo is the opposite in that he cannot score at all. His spacing is meh, with his 3 point shooting being terrible. He has no low post presence. Rebounding wise, his team is worse than mine as well, or at least even.

Quite frankly, as much as I'd like to think my team is better than his (which in my opinion it is by quite a bit, of course I am bias), his team really beats itself. I wouldn't be surprised if my opponent had the weakest team in the tournament.

Thanks for your time. I decided to write this up as quickly as possible to get this tournament going, so forgive me for not going into insane detail (my post was long enough already). There is more stuff I am willing to add, but I do not know how my opponent will approach this match, but I will have future rebuttals and will have some stats to back up some of my claims.

DHodgkins · Post #5 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:02 am

First off I'd like to point out that three of his starters are past their primes. Anyways ...

Minutes/Rotations
My bigs. Webber & Robinson will play my most minutes, although all my starters will play roughly the same. It will be a 9 man rotation with Alvin Robertson and Marcus Camby getting the most burn off the bench.

Defense
The only person who scares me that could take over and dominate the game is Malone and we will double if necessary because his outside shooting doesn't scare me. Clyde, Nique, Alvin and Spree will all get looks at both Gervin and Doctor. Thomas, Rondo and Robertson will switch off picking up Stockton full court using their superior athletic ability to create turnovers and transition buckets. When Robinson comes off the bench, Camby will bring a very capable rim protector.

Offense
I think every person in my starting five excels in both the half court offense (creating a shot for themselves) and also the transition game. Robinson will be my go to guy for most of the game with Nique being the second scoring option. Isiah, Clyde will come off screens for mid range shots. Another key part of my offense will be Chris Webber operating in the high post area. With his combination of posting up, facing up, and incredible passing skills, he could take the shot himself, or create for a teammate.

Bench
My bench has a lot of defense and will be used as energy guys to change the momentum of the game. Spree will look to be a heat check guy and a shot maker for this group.

Overall, I think my sheer athletic and talent abilities, can go "all offense" or "all defense" will be too much for his team.

john248 · Post #6 » by **john248** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:41 am

DHodgkins wrote:First off I'd like to point out that three of his starters are past their primes. Anyways ...

HeartBreakKid wrote:Intangibles

Quite frankly, as much as I'd like to think my team is better than his (which in my opinion it is by quite a bit, of course I am bias), his team really beats itself. I wouldn't be surprised if my opponent had the weakest team in the tournament. .

Love this trash talk!

Heartbreakkid...that was an entertaining read.

ardee · Post #7 » by **ardee** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:35 am

Obviously us GMs don't have a vote but I see HeartBreakKid taking this. DHodgkins started with a promising core but the team ended with too many offensive players who can wreck a structured set with bad shot selection and poor passing.

Robinson is his best player by far but this team will not be able to effectively utilize his talents. He's the only truly great post player he has, but he'll be up against the physicality, strength and athleticism of a Doc/Malone/Gilmore frontline which is honestly frightening.

I think the judges will agree.

DHodgkins · Post #8 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:21 am

How will my team be bad defensively?

Isiah is good for 2-3 steals a game
Drexler is an above average defender for sure
Webber was versatile, got a couple blocks, steals and was one of the best rebounders in the league (led league in 99)
Robinson was a rim protector (3+ bpg) and rebounder (11 rpg) also very versatile
Robertson was one of the best perimeter defenders of his era. Won a DPOY
Camby led the league in block three straight years. Won a DPOY.
Rondo led the league in steals and was named to multiple 1st team all defensive teams
Sprewell was an on an All Defense team as well

ThunderDan9 · Post #9 » by **ThunderDan9** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:09 pm

I like both teams... DHogkins picked up 5 superstars for his starting lineup...

I wondered during the draft how on earth he was able to land on all these players... I thought Drexler was a steal (I almost took him like a dozen picks earlier), Webber and Wilkins were obviously two of the best players available in the 4th and 5thr round... I know their intangibles (and in Wilkins's case: defense) are questioned, but the team is led by a true competitor in Isiah... Drexler and Robinson are fantastic guys to have as 2nd and 3rd option... It's hard to evaluate, but I don't think it's a necessity it won't work. And the ceiling of DHodgkins's starting 5 is one of the best in the whole field.
I don't like his bench though, but that's just my personal opinion (it's subjective just like the fact I love most of his starters). The Walker pick surprised me a little.

The "past their prime" notion was first-class trash-talk, I agree! :wink:

In the case of Doc, it doesn't mean too much. He was simply a terrific player in the early 80's, led a Sixers team which finally understood the team concept... I like the pairing with Karl (although I thought Karl would be selected in the 1st, and Erving in the 2nd :lol:

).
Basically, HeartBreakKid resurrected the solid Stockton-Malone core, only that
- he has a great slasher-type of athlete at the SF spot, enhancing offense (and defense),
- he has some consistent inside presence at C.
And I absolutely LOVE his bench!

KJ is of course one of my favorite players, but if I'm being objective: he was a steal in the 6th round. I mean, it's very much debatable if prime Stockton was better than prime KJ in absolute terms... I targeted Laimbeer myself, he's a great guy to provide some toughness and shooting, Bowen, Hamilton, Bogut... wow (although that's rookie-sophomore Bogut, bus still).

That's my personal favorite from the first 4 match-ups, so excuse me the lengthy post. :lol:

I really can't decide, I'm looking forward to the judge's verdict. All in all, HBK's team looks more solid, but IF Isiah manages to pull together the extremely talented starting 5 of DHodgkins', it would all go in the other way.

Post #10 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 2:08 pm

My first take is that Admiral is getting overlooked for how clearly he would be the dominant factor in this series. His poor offensive reputation in the PS is highly over-stated. He rarely had any other quality options around him, still performed at a high level, and getting outplayed by prime Dream one time is hardly something to be ashamed of. Here he doesnt have to carry the team offensively, we know he's a guy who is willing to take a backseat on that end, and he is miles away the biggest defensive factor in the game.

He is definitely going to have an impact on Doc and Mailman and I think you can live with Gervin trying to beat you from the outside.

Post #11 » by **Quotatious** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:29 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:My first take is that Admiral is getting overlooked for how clearly he would be the dominant factor in this series.

Against Artis Gilmore? I don't know about that. Artis was bigger, stronger and more physical than D-Rob, and he was an excellent man defender in the post. Honestly, I wouldn't count on the Admiral to dominate offensively against such stacked teams (unless he faces a team without a dominant defensive center). DHodgkins has so many offensive options, pretty much all over the court, that IMO the last thing he should think about is making D-Rob a leading scorer.

Gilmore could also give D-Rob trouble as an offensive threat, because he was really hyperefficient as a scorer. Not at a really high volume, but he could score 20 PPG on 65% TS or more, and that's a really scary possibility for the opposing team.

Frankly, I'd go with HeartBreak's team here. Oh, well, I'm not a judge (at least not yet :wink:

and I hope to never become a judge, my plan is to win this whole damn thing 8-)

).

HeartBreakKid · Post #12 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:49 pm

Dr.J wasn't really "past his prime". That's like saying James is past his prime right now.

Dr.J is 29-31 years old here. His numbers for the past 3 seasons are 25/7/4 in a reduced role (he had to make sacrifices when he joined the 76ers). He could have probably scored 30 if he had wanted too, and this is all on good % (57 TS, with a peak of 59).

Again, Robinson is his teams one saving grace, as it should be since he was his first pick. But I have two players who are arguably as good as he is in Dr.J and Karl Malone.

Artis Gilmore is the only player who is not in his prime on my team. Dr.J isn't in his peak but he is still very much in his prime, clearly. Dr.J peaked so high anyway, that dropping off from that doesn't mean much, if this was peak Dr.J he would be the best player on the court by a significant margin.

Can Robinson be the difference maker? Offensively, Robinson isn't anything that my team cannot handle. My front court is very physical and athletic (including my bench in Bowen, Lambeer and Bogut).

Defensively, Robinson can't be everywhere at once, and I have weapons from every where on the court, with reasonably good synergy.

Can Robinson really make up for players like Webber who will get absolutely beat up? Sprewell and Walker chucking bricks? Rondo coming in and my team playing 4 vs 5 because Rondo can't shoot? I don't think my opponents starters are as good as mine, but his bench is really just a huge weakness.

DHodgkins · Post #13 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:05 pm

Starting 5 Drtg

Isiah = 107
Clyde = 103
Nique = 107
Webber = 98
Robinson = 98

Average = 102.6

Stockton = 104
Gervin = 109
Doctor = 99
Malone = 102
Gilmore = 103

Average = 103.4

Laimbeer · Post #14 » by **Laimbeer** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:28 pm

If I'm DHodgkins I'm looking to run. Isiah was a scoring point but he could run a break as well. Clyde and Nique on the wings is sick and Webber and DRob would run the floor better than the opposing bigs, particularly A-Train.

DHodgkins · Post #15 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:46 pm

Laimbeer wrote:If I'm DHodgkins I'm looking to run. Isiah was a scoring point but he could run a break as well. Clyde and Nique on the wings is sick and Webber and DRob would run the floor better than the opposing bigs, particularly A-Train.

For sure. Especially when my guards get the rebound (Clyde 6+ rpg... Isiah 4+ rpg). They will look to push the pace and find Nique or one of the bigs running with them.

Also, my team should force a lot of turnovers.

Isiah = 2.3 spg
Drexler = 1.8 spg
Wilkins = 1.5 spg
Webber = 1.5 spg
Robinson = 1.6 spg

Rondo = 2.2 spg
Robertson = 3.3 spg
Spree = 1.8 spg
Walker = 1.3 spg
Camby = 1.2 spg

This will create a lot of fastbreaks

Woodsanity · Post #16 » by **Woodsanity** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:56 pm

DHodgkins wrote:Starting 5 Drtg

Isiah = 107
Clyde = 103
Nique = 107
Webber = 98
Robinson = 98

Average = 102.6

Stockton = 104
Gervin = 109
Doctor = 99
Malone = 102
Gilmore = 103

Average = 103.4

Defensive rating is way too dependent on team defense to be useful to evaluate how good a defender someone is.

ElGee · Post #17 » by **ElGee** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:57 pm

I'll try to weigh in on some of the match ups when I can. I'm assuming, for the time being, that these teams have both practiced together and are completely engaged at the same level they would be at the end of a competitive year. I'm also not going to assume much of anything about team strategy and lineups unless a coach explicitly states it.

Hodgkins team is the team most likely to have players quit, get in a fight, or choke a coach. Basically, they are the 2002 USA team of this tournament -- a hodgepodge of individual talent that doesn't fit well together and whose skills are diminishing when put around other similar players.

Hodgkins on Offense
I see David Robinson -- their best player, by far -- as having a horrible time with Artis Gilmore and Karl Malone. Just a brutal physical matchup for Robinson. Thomas will pound the ball a lot, but he has no shooters around him -- like, not even a spacer off the bench (please don't think Antoine Walker is a good outside shooter). Webber could play PnR with Isiah, but I don't like the players off the ball in that scenario either. Also, Robinson and Webber are both high-post operators -- the whole floor just seems all jammed up to me.

HBK on Offense
I like what HBK does on offense -- the offensive team around Stockton-Malone is similar to what Utah has had in the past...and while a guy like Hornacek is a better shooter than Gervin, Gervin's mid-range game and coming off screens is ridiculously good.

HBK's indicated Laimbeer will replace Artis off the bench -- this creates even further problems against Hodgkins because Bill can pop to the 3 -- great spacing, and a good shooter. The KJ thing is a bit awkward to me because I think he's better than Stock (gasp), so when he's in on the game on offense I do see him having a huge amount of success against Rondo or Isiah and any two-man game he'd play on offense, likely with Malone.

I would take HBK in a landslide here.

john248 · Post #18 » by **john248** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:01 pm

My take on this match-up is rather simple. It's a closer series than it's perceived even if I side with 1 team here mainly because one team has a bit more talent as starters and has a bit better bench. Granted, the bench won't see a lot of minutes given an 8 or 9 man rotation from each team. However, the difference is still there.

Just a general response to what I've read. I agree that KJ is a steal, however I'm not sure how effective Laimbeer would be other than his outside shooting. He won't be able to get away with the things he did back in his day. With that said, a bench role is good for him, and he will still work hard. DRob doesn't need to be an offensive force. In an ensemble like that, he just has to be a contributor which he can excel in not having as much attention on him. There will be lots of drive and dish from Isiah, and lots of PnR from Stockton. But there are a lot of hungry mouths to feed on both teams.

therealbig3 · Post #19 » by **therealbig3** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:21 pm

Well, my opinion is that KJ should be HeartBreakKid's starter over Stockton...imo, KJ at his best was a better player than Isiah or Stockton. I think his aggression makes him a better player to have out there than Stockton.

And remember, K. Malone is on the other team. He consistently shut down a prime D-Rob. And Artis Gilmore is a legitimate defensive anchor as well. I think Robinson would have a brutal time in this series.

And if KJ is the starter, I think HeartBreakKid wins the PG matchup. But even with Stock as the starter, I think it's a wash at PG. KJ off the bench would go wild.

The one thing though is that Gervin as the starting SG is going to be a defensive liability against either Drexler or Nique (depending on who you're defending with Dr. J). But HeartBreakKid has Bowen off the bench, so if Gervin is getting burned too much (who will be a TOUGH cover on the offensive end), he can bring in one of the best wing defenders of this generation to check Nique or Drexler.

Anyway, if we look at the top 2 players on either team, I think Stockton or KJ/Malone trumps Isiah/Robinson...just a bad matchup for the latter two, especially with Gilmore thrown in. And I think HeartBreakKid continues to match up very favorably if you look at every other matchup.

That's just my initial take on this, but I won't cast my vote yet...I'll wait to see further analysis.

DHodgkins · Post #20 » by **DHodgkins** » Sun Jan 26, 2014 7:27 pm

ElGee wrote:Hodgkins team is the team most likely to have players quit, get in a fight, or choke a coach. Basically, they are the 2002 USA team of this tournament -- a hodgepodge of individual talent that doesn't fit well together and whose skills are diminishing when put around other similar players.

How do you know they will not fit well together?

Players quit? Fights? Choke a coach?

My offense will be mostly D-Rob and Wilkins being leading scorers while Thomas, Clyde and Webber will get their fair share and being good off the ball/creating.

Robinson is the best player by far in this series imo. Led the league in PER in all three of his years.

Malone and Artis would beat up Robinson ... ok. That is why I have four other 20+ ppg scorers that could go for 40 on any given night. (especially drexler/nique if being guarded by Gervin)

therealbig3 wrote:imo, KJ at his best was a better player than Isiah or Stockton.

Isiah is being really underrated here.

Only PGs to make three consecutive All NBA 1st teams: Magic, Nash, Kidd and Isiah.

KJ NEVER made a 1st team.