Larry Bird vs Lebron James - Greatest SF of all Time

[wigglestrue]

Is it really fair to include Lebron's as a 22yo on one of the worst Finals teams ever?

He massively overachieved that year, and the fact that he brought his team to the Finals shouldn't count against him just coz he was the only one worth a damn on that squad.

It's why those "Lebron already lost two Finals while Jordan is 6-0" things don't hold too much weight.

It was LeBron's fourth year. Bird won a title in his second year, and his '81 teammates were not that much more productive than LeBron's '07 teammates.

[longball]

Please ignore me, as I am a PBP.

[Okada]

Is it really fair to include Lebron's as a 22yo on one of the worst Finals teams ever?

He massively overachieved that year, and the fact that he brought his team to the Finals shouldn't count against him just coz he was the only one worth a damn on that squad.

It's why those "Lebron already lost two Finals while Jordan is 6-0" things don't hold too much weight.


Now on-topic, I love Bird and he's arguably my favorite non-current era player, but this is easily Lebron for me. I believe Bird himself said this.

Not that I think there's a massive gap or anything like that, but I don't think it's a hard choice.

All I did was post his actual statistics in an actual Finals series that he actually played in.

I wouldn't exactly say I'm using a biased statistic...especially considering Bird's '81 Finals.

I don't even see how it can easily be LeBron for anyone. I don't see where that possible edge comes from. Well, unless you count the fact that so many people elevate LeBron just because he's the most recent guy that they grew up watching (intentionally or unintentionally).

[Dr Positivity]

Oh I think this is LBJ. I'd lean his way offensively even before considering his defensive value. Bird is clearly amazing but he is not the perfect offensive player his reputation sometimes suggests. He is imperfect at driving the basket and drawing fouls and leaning on a perimeter shot is probably why his TS in the playoffs was inconsistent. I think there is a better chance of Lebron and Durant getting remembered as the two best SFs than people are realizing, whether fair or not

[rrravenred]

It was LeBron's fourth year. Bird won a title in his second year, and his '81 teammates were not that much more productive than LeBron's '07 teammates.

Always fascinated by the "age vs NBA experience" conundrum.

Is the star-driven NBA really the best place to develop skills vs a relatively more controlled college environment? At what point does physical maturation "top out"...

[tsherkin]

It is utterl pointless to compare them based on the year of their career. Bird had more help as a rookie than Lebron ever did in Cleveland, so team success isn't a meaningul point of conversation.

Too, Lebron was 19 and 20 in his first two years, without any college at all. Bird was 23 and had three years of college ball. There's a mix of physical, mental and skill maturation to consider beyond the radical differences in roster support.

[wigglestrue]

Really, tsherkin? So, we have to wait until, what, LeBron's fifth or sixth season to begin comparing him to Bird's rookie season? Come on. Also, let's not get too crazy about '81 Bird's supporting cast versus '07 LeBron's. Gooden, Hughes, Ilgauskas, and a young Varejao isn't too bad, not soooo much worse production-wise than Cornbread, aged Tiny, Parish, and a young McHale.

[B_Creamy]

Also, let's not get too crazy about '81 Bird's supporting cast versus '07 LeBron's. Gooden, Hughes, Ilgauskas, and a young Varejao isn't too bad, not soooo much worse production-wise than Cornbread, aged Tiny, Parish, and a young McHale.

Please explain why you think this.

[rrravenred]

Did a quick back of the napkin calculation, and the Celts were putting up about 10 points fewer per game at a whopping 6% lower TS... will look more into it when I get home...

Sent from my LG-P705 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[wigglestrue]

Also, let's not get too crazy about '81 Bird's supporting cast versus '07 LeBron's. Gooden, Hughes, Ilgauskas, and a young Varejao isn't too bad, not soooo much worse production-wise than Cornbread, aged Tiny, Parish, and a young McHale.

Please explain why you think this.

Have you compared those players' playoffs averages?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... game::none
http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... game::none

Again, I'm not saying Bird didn't have a better team.
But the per-game production of Bird's best four '81 teammates isn't too much more.

[wigglestrue]

You know, we're accustomed to giving Bird credit for being a very good team defender, reminding ourselves that Bird was named All-Defense 2nd Team three times, reminding others that his defense is underrated today. But, uh, can anyone explain this thing I'd never noticed before, and which made me literally do a double-take:

Defensive Win Shares

1979-80 NBA 5.6 (1)
1980-81 NBA 6.1 (1)
1981-82 NBA 5.7 (2)
1982-83 NBA 5.6 (5)
1983-84 NBA 5.6 (1)
1984-85 NBA 5.2 (2)
1985-86 NBA 6.2 (1)
1986-87 NBA 4.8 (6)

I don't get it. Those look like the season rankings for the prime of one of the greatest defenders of all time, if Defensive Win Shares mean anything -- that does not look like it belongs on Larry Bird's b-ref page. Anyone know what the deal is? Is there a simple explanation?

Doesn't seem to be a total quirk of that stat, either.
He consistently finished high in the leaderboard for Defensive Rating, too.

Defensive Rating

1979-80 NBA 98.2 (6)
1980-81 NBA 98.6 (10)
1981-82 NBA 99.4 (6)
[1982-83 NBA 98.0 (11)]
1983-84 NBA 100.8 (2)
1984-85 NBA 102.8 (9)
1985-86 NBA 99.4 (4)
[1986-87 NBA 103.6 (13)]

I mean...if those were the rankings for, say, LeBron or Pippen or Jordan, wouldn't it be deployed as tangible confirmation of the well-warranted assumption that those guys were great defenders? Yes, right? Well, and I know there's got to be some reason, but why is it assumed that Larry's defensive rankings don't reflect any actual on-court defensive greatness? What in the formulae for those two metrics especially favors Bird, makes him appear vastly better than he actually was? Why shouldn't those rankings cause us to take a moment to once again re-evaluate Bird's defensive reputation, just in case he's even more underrated than we've thought?

[wigglestrue]

Anyone know? About why Defensive Win Shares love Bird?

[colts18]

Anyone know? About why Defensive Win Shares love Bird?

The Same reason that Defensive win shares loves Carlos Boozer and George Hill

[wigglestrue]

Anyone know? About why Defensive Win Shares love Bird?

The Same reason that Defensive win shares loves Carlos Boozer and George Hill

The vast majority of the DWS Top 10 for the last 40 years are good-to-great defenders.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html

Any metric is going to have anomalies.
I'm not myself a big fan of metrics.
I'm just curious about this one.

How did Larry Bird, over a span of 8 seasons, for a defensive metric, finish 1st four times, 2nd twice, and also 5th, and 6th? Is it purely the byproduct of him playing a lot of minutes? Is that DWS's fatal blunder? But it can't be just that. Or else why are so many obviously-great defenders recognized by DWS and why does Defensive Rating also have a pretty big crush on Larry Bird? I mean, if the All-Defense team were simply decided by listing the Top 10 in Defensive Rating every season, then Bird would've found himself on two All-Defense 1st teams and four All-Defense 2nd teams. What do these stats actually mean? To me, their usefulness here should determine their usefulness overall. Either a) Larry Bird was a much, much better defensive presence than we've ever assumed, or b) Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Rating are basically both useless. Is that an unfair either/or?

[iLLmAtiCiAn]

Bird:

81 - 15.3 PPG on 42/50/81, 15.3 RPG, 7 APG, 2.8 S+BPG
84 - 27.4 PPG on 48/67/84, 14 RPG, 3.6 APG, 3.2 S+BPG
85 - 23.8 PPG on 60/0/73, 10.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 2.1 S+BPG
86 - 24.0 PPG on 57/0/80, 9.7 RPG, 9.5 APG, 3.0 S+BPG
87 - 24.2 PPG on 45/50/92, 10.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.4 S+BPG

LeBron:

07 - 22.0 PPG on 36/20/69, 7.0 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.5 S+BPG
11 - 17.8 PPG on 48/32/60, 7.2 RPG, 6.8 APG, 2.2 S+BPG
12 - 28.6 PPG on 47/19/83, 10.2 RPG, 7.4 APG, 2.0 S+BPG
13 - 25.3 PPG on 45/35/80, 10.9 RPG, 7.0 APG, 3.2 S+BPG

Yeah, I prefer Bird. Also, so interesting that Bird averaged 15 and 14 RPG in his first two Finals. That's pretty surprising.

Now adjust for pace.

[lorak]

Anyone know? About why Defensive Win Shares love Bird?

Because things like team DRtg or DRB% matters a lot for DWS and Bird was very good defensive rebounder and played for good defensive teams.

[wigglestrue]

Here are the other players who've finished either 1st or 2nd in DWS multiple times:


Bill Russell: 1st 11 times, 2nd once.
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1st four times, 2nd three times.
David Robinson: 1st three times, 2nd four times.
Tim Duncan: 1st five times, 2nd twice.
Wilt: 1st two times, 2nd five times.
Ben Wallace: 1st four times in a row, 2nd twice.
Kareem: 1st two times, 2nd three times.
Dwight Howard: 1st four times in a row.
Kevin Garnett: 2nd four times.
Patrick Ewing: 1st three times, 2nd once.
Elvin Hayes: 1st three times, 2nd once.
Karl Malone: 2nd three times.
Jack Sikma: 1st twice.
Paul George: 1st last two years.
LeBron James: 2nd twice.
Walt Frazier: 2nd twice.

They weren't multiple top 2 finishers, but also to be found in the top 2 at least once: Jordan, Pippen, Bobby Jones, Eaton, Shaq, Mutombo, Rodman, Mahorn, Buck Williams, Dr. J, Caldwell Jones, Gerald Wallace, Shawn Marion, Cowens, Unseld, Josh Smith, Moses, Marvin Webster, Truck Robinson. Any others you find conspicuously missing, especially wings, are almost certainly somewhere on those leaderboards, between 3rd and 10th. Is DPOY voting more reliable as a measure? You tell me.

Now, obviously, Cousy piggybacked on Russ all the way to 2nd or 3rd five times, so there's something quite imperfect about how DWS is calculated or what it's calculating. At the same time, that's one hell of a correlation between defensive excellence as-we-already-know-it and finishing 1st or 2nd in DWS multiple times.

Look at the company Bird is keeping, with his four 1sts and two 2nds.

[wallsfamily]

guys when the Celtics played a team with a great scorer such as Dominique McHale guarded him. Bird like other superstars in that era were hidden on the person that didn't score. In Atlanta's case that was tree Rollins. The all defensive rankings was a joke based on an overvaluing of steals.

[Quotatious]

Because things like team DRtg or DRB% matters a lot for DWS and Bird was very good defensive rebounder and played for good defensive teams.

Yep. The same thing can be said about Julius Erving and coincidentally, I think that many people still underrate the defensive impact of both Bird and especially Doc.

[Woodsanity]

Is it really fair to include Lebron's as a 22yo on one of the worst Finals teams ever?

He massively overachieved that year, and the fact that he brought his team to the Finals shouldn't count against him just coz he was the only one worth a damn on that squad.

It's why those "Lebron already lost two Finals while Jordan is 6-0" things don't hold too much weight.

It was LeBron's fourth year. Bird won a title in his second year, and his '81 teammates were not that much more productive than LeBron's '07 teammates.

Parish alone was 2x better than any teammate Lebron had in 07. Bird's team was stacked. The Cav's 2nd best player was an aging Zydrunas, their 3rd best player was Drew Gooden....