Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[MPM]

Stein with some snub love: http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post ... star-snubs

[Elden Payton]

As much as I've been a detractor of Al, it is only fair to say that this guy is playing elite ball at the moment and long may it continue.

[LamarMatic7]

I don't understand for the life of me how Al Jefferson hasn't made a single All-Star appearance in 9 seasons, but a defensive sieve like David Lee could make the All-Star team twice (once in each conference might I add)

I think it's that easy - Al played in the West, David Lee played in the East. It's easier to look down on a mediocre (for the Western conference standards) Minnesota or Utah team and say that Al is putting up empty numbers than argue with the break-out of the energetic David Lee who rebounds like a madman for the New York Knicks, while his numbers are probably inflated by D'Antoni's pace and minute allocation, not to mention the hype a New York player can get.

[Eoghan]

I am disappointed to see Al not make the All Star team. I don't think he's an All Star but I didn't think Jamal Magliore was that one year either, still it's nice to see your team's guy make it. I mean Joe Johnson? Pfft.

here are statements that i will not agree with, at least not without a ton of proof
1) jefferson is the worst defensive starting big in the league
2) we would be a better team w/out jefferson
3) jefferson gives up more points than he scores
4) we would have the best defense in the league if we had a rim protector, like biz, starting instead of jefferson

1) He's pretty close. He had the worst opp. fg% at the rim among centers the last time I checked. There might be a PF worse that backs up your statement (and that PF might be McRoberts right now, he was hovering just above Al last I checked). That's only one stat though, I realize.

2) I do believe this, wholeheartedly. We played just as well when Al was out honestly. McRob had a role, MKG was allowed to touch the ball a couple times of game, we couldn't be P&R'd to death. Plus long term success would have had a brighter outlook.

3) The lane is an expressway for other teams, anybody can see that. Although he hasn't been missing lately, when he does miss his inefficient mid-range post moves or settled for jumpers it almost always results in transition points for the opposition. That's the crux of the issue, when he's on fire it's a coin toss whether we actually win or not but when he's not on fire it's a steep uphill climb for victories. It wouldn't be so bad if he shot more FTs and got people in foul trouble.

4) Nobody would say we'd have the best defense, that's a lofty goal. We'd have a much better one though.

[Snidely FC]

Zach Lowe's take on Al not making the All Star team

The sneaky interesting alleged snub is Al Jefferson, on fire lately, with 10 consecutive 20-plus scoring games to prop up a Charlotte offense that misses Kemba Walker’s shot creation. When you look at the actual Eastern Conference All-Star roster, there’s no real reason to keep Jefferson out. He suffers a bit from a bunch of things — that nobody really watches a 20-27 Charlotte team; that he missed nine early-season games with ankle issues; and the correct perception that he’s a bad defender. Even Big Al has rather amusingly copped to that, and Charlotte’s defense has declined continuously after a stingy start against an easy schedule. The Bobcats are 24th in points allowed per possession in January, and their core lineups with Jefferson in the middle have mostly struggled despite a system designed to better hide his limitations. (We’ll see if the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist changes this.) Jefferson certainly merits inclusion over Johnson and perhaps DeRozan, though he shares that status with Afflalo, Lowry, and a couple of others.

[fatlever]

4) Nobody would say we'd have the best defense, that's a lofty goal. We'd have a much better one though.

this was a quote from JDM in the other thread

Shoot we could be the best defense in the league with a coatrack in there for fat Albert. - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=53&t=1300952&start=30#sthash.7YrDKdds.dpuf

[fatlever]

despite jefferson's defense, he still has the best simple rating on the team according to 82games at +4.7

his production is greater than his opponent 22.7 to 16.6, +6.1, which is best on the team

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

we are a better defensive team when he is off the floor by 2.9pts, but we are a better offensive team when he is on the floor by 3.5.

i think that pretty much disproves the statement that jefferson gives up more points than he scores. clearly that is not the case.

[mrknowitall215]

despite jefferson's defense, he still has the best simple rating on the team according to 82games at +4.7

his production is greater than his opponent 22.7 to 16.6, +6.1, which is best on the team

http://www.82games.com/1314/1314CHA.HTM

we are a better defensive team when he is off the floor by 2.9pts, but we are a better offensive team when he is on the floor by 3.5.

i think that pretty much disproves the statement that jefferson gives up more points than he scores. clearly that is not the case.

Thanks for posting this, also proves my eye-tested belief that Cody Zeller & Jeff Taylor have been the worst rotational players for the Bobcats all season. Another thing that's interesting, is how thoroughly outplayed Josh McRoberts has been getting played by his opposition all season. I know McRoberts has been abused in the post by a lot of PFs, but I didn't know that the numbers were that skewed

[fatlever]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-s ... -the-king/

from grantland

Danny Chau: Last night, Al Jefferson tied his Bobcats high in points with 35 against the Denver Nuggets. He also tied a franchise record for most consecutive 20-plus-point games; he’s currently sitting at 10, sharing the distinction with Jason Richardson, whose 10-game streak is now six years old. I think I can say this with confidence: Jefferson is simply the greatest offensive player in Bobcats history, past or present (there is no future).

The Bobcats are playing .500 ball in their last 10 games. During that stretch, the team played six games decided by six points or fewer, and won three of them. In most contexts, that’s not a noteworthy figure. But we’re talking about the Bobcats here, whose near-infinite number of soul-rending blowout losses is matched only by the number of times they’ve found new ways to lose close games. It’s no coincidence that the Bobcats’ relative success in clutch situations recently has overlapped with Jefferson’s torrid output.

Sometimes, when conditions are perfect, a team’s primary offensive option reflects the greater ethos of a franchise, a city, a fan base. Kobe’s picturesque fallaways are prepackaged for big-screen adaptations of his on-court legacy. Melo at his best transcends the curse of the Dolan era, and at his worst reminds you that those mid-aughts Knicks squads aren’t as far off in the periphery as you once thought. In their final year of existence, the Bobcats have found their perfect match in Jefferson.

If you’re watching a Bobcats game, you’re not expecting explosions. You’re watching because you’re either a sadist or you have an undying belief that sticking with a process will yield incrementally favorable results. No one expects an Al Jefferson explosion, but over the course of 48 minutes, that old-school footwork, so strangely alluring it can only really be described as post-sexy, starts working its magic. Suddenly Big Al’s got another double-double, and suddenly the Bobcats are in pretty good position to win. That’s an incredible reality for the Bobcats, considering their past. Given enough chances, with a player as uncannily consistent as Jefferson is, the Bobcats might just make something relatively special out of this season.

[Elden Payton]

One thing is for sure, Jefferson must feel that he made the right free agency decision.

His output has been phenomenal.

[MasterIchiro]

It just gets more and more absurd to rag on him.

He is the greatest of all time.

Big Al makes Wilt Chamberlain look like iddy biddy Mugsy Bogues.

[Xerxes_Tetra]

its time for me to do some fact checking about jefferson's defense this season... perhaps tomorrow. way too many statements being thrown around lately about his defense with little to no proof to back it up.

here are statements i will agree with
1) the bobcats probably rushed the rebuild by signing jefferson

I don't think you "rush" a rebuild. If you get a good asset then you are rebuilding. The question is whether it was a smart way to rebuild and at least my opinion is it was not. The Bobcats need to build primarily through the draft because trying to do so through free agency means paying non-all stars with all-star contracts. Rebuilding through free agency means more likely mediocre teams now and in the future.

2) we could have made better use of that 13.5 mil (but that assumes players would have signed here)

That's not the only assumption relevant. Question also is will the money spent to land Jefferson result in money not being spent on better deals either this year or in future years? Its fairly obvious Jordan is no Prokhorov.

3) al jefferson is a below average defender and struggles particularly in pick and roll defense and help defense
4) it has yet to be proven that a team can win in the playoffs with jefferson as the main piece on offense and jefferson has yet to prove he can function as a role player
5) jefferson is playing out of his mind right now
6) jefferson has been better on defense than i expected
7) we are able to function at a high level defensively in spite of jefferson's defensive shortcomings


here are statements that i will not agree with, at least not without a ton of proof
1) jefferson is the worst defensive starting big in the league

If we agree on how to define defensive metrics this is a potentially easy one to invalidate. Jefferson's opponent is shooting 49.9% and 18.5 pp48m (points per 48 minutes). Several other centers have worse numbers. Al Horford's opponent's numbers are 55.8% shooting and 19 pp48m. Brook Lopez's opponent's numbers are 49.2% and 20.3 pp48m. Dalembert's opponent's numbers are 52.5% and 18.4 pp48m. Drummond's opponent's numbers are 51% and 21.1 pp48m. Deandre Jordan's opponent's numbers are 51.2% and 22.6 pp48m. I'll stop here but you get the idea. Jefferson is likely in the upper half of defensive big men when considering the production of his opponent.

2) we would be a better team w/out jefferson
3) jefferson gives up more points than he scores

As I mentioned above, Jefferson's opponent averages 18.5 pp48m. Jefferson's producing 26.9 pp48m.

4) we would have the best defense in the league if we had a rim protector, like biz, starting instead of jefferson

I'm not sure about Biz but if you had Hibbert that likely would be the case though I've no data to support it.

[BigSlam]

I don't think you "rush" a rebuild. If you get a good asset then you are rebuilding. The question is whether it was a smart way to rebuild and at least my opinion is it was not. The Bobcats need to build primarily through the draft because trying to do so through free agency means paying non-all stars with all-star contracts. Rebuilding through free agency means more likely mediocre teams now and in the future.

34 Percent Of Lottery Picks Between 2004-2008 Already Out Of NBA

Of the 70 lottery picks between the 2004 NBA Draft and 2008 NBA Draft, 24 are already out of the NBA, representing 34 percent.

[Bassman]

Love Big Al's production and work in the post. I especially love old-school play from the post and Al is a master at it. Yes he is a liability on D, but the advantages he brings outweigh that issue.

The key is to match him up with a front court mate that will compliment his strengths and offset his weaknesses.

I tire of everyone who still wanted the tank. Having the opportunity to sign Al was significant to our future. We will get few free agent of his caliber here. Sessions was a minor victory as a FA. Since he has been starting his productivity has increased. Kemba is not going anywhere, but Sessions likely will. He should be a trade chip we use to improve our team.

The draft has no guarantees, especially the way this organization picks players. Let's hope tat somehow the stars align and our lottery pick is sky high. We need an elite player, a star, to pair with Al and Kemba. Al can play in stretches at an all-star level, but he cannot do it alone. MKG does make a difference, but not at he level a #2 pick should. Still, get a quality 4 and a star SG in the mix and we're making noise in the playoffs.

[Xerxes_Tetra]

I don't think you "rush" a rebuild. If you get a good asset then you are rebuilding. The question is whether it was a smart way to rebuild and at least my opinion is it was not. The Bobcats need to build primarily through the draft because trying to do so through free agency means paying non-all stars with all-star contracts. Rebuilding through free agency means more likely mediocre teams now and in the future.

34 Percent Of Lottery Picks Between 2004-2008 Already Out Of NBA

Of the 70 lottery picks between the 2004 NBA Draft and 2008 NBA Draft, 24 are already out of the NBA, representing 34 percent.

What's your point? I didn't say lottery picks were a sure bet. But neither are free agent signings. Just look at the players we traded for or who we signed ourselves who any team would be glad if they had them on their books to drop them for a D league player if they could get out from under their contract - Ben Gordon, Desagana Diop, Erick Dampier, Matt Carroll, Emeka Okafor, Brendan Haywood, need I go on? And of course if you look further than the Bobcats you can consider some other gems - Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Baron Davis, Jerome James, etc. etc.

My point is free agents are a crap shoot but the Bobcats aren't playing even against house odds because the Bobcats have to overpay just to make a bet. Lottery picks aren't a sure thing for any team and certainly the Bobcats have managed to whiff on numerous picks. But if the Bobcats want to do something other than be, at the best, a first round punching bag then its going to have to get good at or get lucky with the draft. Bobcats won't do it signing a player like Al Jefferson, whose good enough to make the box score look nice, but won't ever be in an All-Star game, to an All-Star player contract.

[KembaWalker]

Al Jefferson isn't overpaid. Ben Gordon is overpaid. Al Jefferson is on a very fair deal.

[BigSlam]

I don't think you "rush" a rebuild. If you get a good asset then you are rebuilding. The question is whether it was a smart way to rebuild and at least my opinion is it was not. The Bobcats need to build primarily through the draft because trying to do so through free agency means paying non-all stars with all-star contracts. Rebuilding through free agency means more likely mediocre teams now and in the future.

34 Percent Of Lottery Picks Between 2004-2008 Already Out Of NBA

Of the 70 lottery picks between the 2004 NBA Draft and 2008 NBA Draft, 24 are already out of the NBA, representing 34 percent.

What's your point?

My point is the draft is an incredible crap shoot and the riskiest way to try and build a successful team - and you want to build primarily through the draft.

My point is free agents are a crap shoot but the Bobcats aren't playing even against house odds because the Bobcats have to overpay just to make a bet.

A proven NBA player isn't a crap shoot. They are a known entity. Doesn't mean they always pan out, but there is SIGNIFICANTLY less risk associated to a free agent signing of Al's calibre.

Lottery picks aren't a sure thing for any team and certainly the Bobcats have managed to whiff on numerous picks. But if the Bobcats want to do something other than be, at the best, a first round punching bag then its going to have to get good at or get lucky with the draft. Bobcats won't do it signing a player like Al Jefferson, whose good enough to make the box score look nice, but won't ever be in an All-Star game, to an All-Star player contract.

Having a guy like Al on our team is a Godsend. He gives our team credibility, makes us more enjoyable to watch and we pretty much know what we are going to get out of him night in night out.

[gehenherzog]

What's your point?

My point is the draft is an incredible crap shoot and the riskiest way to try and build a successful team - and you want to build primarily through the draft.

My point is free agents are a crap shoot but the Bobcats aren't playing even against house odds because the Bobcats have to overpay just to make a bet.

A proven NBA player isn't a crap shoot. They are a known entity. Doesn't mean they always pan out, but there is SIGNIFICANTLY less risk associated to a free agent signing of Al's calibre.

Lottery picks aren't a sure thing for any team and certainly the Bobcats have managed to whiff on numerous picks. But if the Bobcats want to do something other than be, at the best, a first round punching bag then its going to have to get good at or get lucky with the draft. Bobcats won't do it signing a player like Al Jefferson, whose good enough to make the box score look nice, but won't ever be in an All-Star game, to an All-Star player contract.

Having a guy like Al on our team is a Godsend. He gives our team credibility, makes us more enjoyable to watch and we pretty much know what we are going to get out of him night in night out.

Agreed.

He and Kemba are key pieces in attracting players to want to come here.

[tondi123]

When you look around the league there really aren't many teams who were build strictly on high lottery picks. The OKC example is the exception, not the rule, to the idea of becoming great through multiple top 5 picks. Certainly guys picked at the top of the draft have a higher likelihood of being franchise type players but that doesn't mean it will ever translate to championship contention for the team that drafted them, in many cases.

I think we have a nice mix of middle aged, young and VERY young players on the roster. Pretty much all of them still have a great deal of potential to improve and they seem like a very hard working likeable bunch. Adding a guy like Al who isn't a franchise player but is probably whatever you call players just a step below that has been just what we needed. I'm not sure another 20 win season, with no attempt to improve, would have allowed us to keep our young guys as soon as they had the chance to leave, not to mention getting your brains beat in night after night, year after year, is a very destructive thing to the psyche of all players, young and old.

[mrknowitall215]

When you look around the league there really aren't many teams who were build strictly on high lottery picks. The OKC example is the exception, not the rule, to the idea of becoming great through multiple top 5 picks. Certainly guys picked at the top of the draft have a higher likelihood of being franchise type players but that doesn't mean it will ever translate to championship contention for the team that drafted them, in many cases.

I think we have a nice mix of middle aged, young and VERY young players on the roster. Pretty much all of them still have a great deal of potential to improve and they seem like a very hard working likeable bunch. Adding a guy like Al who isn't a franchise player but is probably whatever you call players just a step below that has been just what we needed. I'm not sure another 20 win season, with no attempt to improve, would have allowed us to keep our young guys as soon as they had the chance to leave, not to mention getting your brains beat in night after night, year after year, is a very destructive thing to the psyche of all players, young and old.

Al Jefferson was a good signing, especially considering the fact that his contract isn't lengthy, just 3 years. I preferred Jefferson over Millsap all along, but I thought Jefferson would've been more difficult to obtain since he was the more proven player of the two. I don't understand why everyone is so obsessed with tanking when it's far from a proven theory to create a winning franchise