Over .500, here we come

tontoz · Post #81 » by **tontoz** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:21 pm

Over the last two weeks Portland has won less than 40% of their games (3-5 record). In the end a two week sample size doesnt mean much.

Post #82 » by **nate33** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:36 pm

As of right now, we've played the 5th hardest strength of schedule among East Conference teams.

Notably, Brooklyn has had a slightly harder SOS than us, and Toronto has had about the same SOS. Everyone else that matters, including Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte and Detroit, will have a significantly more difficult schedule than us going forward.

Nivek · Post #83 » by **Nivek** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:39 pm

Bigwig wrote:
The overall strength of schedule is not the primary consideration. Suppose Team A and Team B have the same schedule and distribution of game ratings, so that they have the exact same standard deviations. If Team A gets its good ratings against the good teams, and hence its bad ratings against the bad teams, and if Team B is the opposite, then can we agree that the data suggests that Team A is less consistent than Team B? The flaw in your metric is in the individual game ratings: it should count for more to achieve a good offensive/defensive rating against a good defensive/offensive opponent.

I agree that it's not worth trying to squeeze the juice out of this lemon in general--I'm certainly too lazy to do the research--but at least for the past couple of weeks the Wizards fit the profile.

I appreciate the comment, but it really ain't worth the work. Plus, I'm unconvinced in your example either team could be said to be more consistent. What you're getting at seems more like outcome vs. expected outcome, and that's not what I'm looking at. This is strictly a look at variance in the team's offensive and defensive production.

Nivek · Post #84 » by **Nivek** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:44 pm

nate33 wrote:As of right now, we've played the 5th hardest strength of schedule among East Conference teams.

Notably, Brooklyn has had a slightly harder SOS than us, and Toronto has had about the same SOS. Everyone else that matters, including Atlanta, Chicago, Charlotte and Detroit, will have a significantly more difficult schedule than us going forward.

It's really incredible to look at the conference divide in b-r's SOS measure. Not a single Eastern Conference team has played a more difficult than average schedule. Brooklyn is very close at -0.07 points "easier" than average. But, the top 14 teams in SOS are in the West.

In the East, it's really Brooklyn at "toughest" and then Boston, Philly, Toronto and the Wizards in what amounts to a 4-way tie for 2nd. Boston and Philly are each at -0.37; Toronto at -0.38 and Washington is at -0.39.

Kanyewest · Post #85 » by **Kanyewest** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 7:17 pm

The Wizards had an easy schedule in the first month of the season but they didn't get wins because they were still adjusting to playing with each other. Gortat was acquired only 5 days before the start of the season. It has taken a while but Gortat has finally seemed to grasp Wittman's defensive concepts.

It also took Wittman some time to fine tune his rotations- which is still a work in progress but has improved during the season. The Wizards trotted out Eric Maynor as the backup point guard during the first month of the season. The Wizards have now gone to Temple with Beal often playing with the bench. Maybe Temple hasn't been that productive but at least he is reliable defensively and has allowed Wall to get some rest rather than playing 40+ mpg which was the trend when Maynor was playing.

Nene struggled with injuries and the Wizards experimented with starting Booker. The Wizards have now found it optimal to play Gortat and Nene together. Booker has shown to be reliable. Seraphin and Vesely have shown flashes of adequate play as the season progressed.

dobrojim · Post #86 » by **dobrojim** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 7:22 pm

Donkey McDonkerton wrote:Finally, and I was actually able to be there in person!

crowd really got into it at the end. Good vibe.

Kev's right; Consistency is not the same as good.

Having made the same optimistic prediction that Zonk made, 48 wins,
I'd love some positive inconsistency for long enough so that when we revert
to the norm, we're still solidly over .500. And in contention for the 3rd seed
or at least HC advantage in round one.

hands11 · Post #87 » by **hands11** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 7:40 pm

Kanyewest wrote:The Wizards had an easy schedule in the first month of the season but they didn't get wins because they were still adjusting to playing with each other. Gortat was acquired only 5 days before the start of the season. It has taken a while but Gortat has finally seemed to grasp Wittman's defensive concepts.

It also took Wittman some time to fine tune his rotations- which is still a work in progress but has improved during the season. The Wizards trotted out Eric Maynor as the backup point guard during the first month of the season. The Wizards have now gone to Temple with Beal often playing with the bench. Maybe Temple hasn't been that productive but at least he is reliable defensively and has allowed Wall to get some rest rather than playing 40+ mpg which was the trend when Maynor was playing.

Nene struggled with injuries and the Wizards experimented with starting Booker. The Wizards have now found it optimal to play Gortat and Nene together. Booker has shown to be reliable. Seraphin and Vesely have shown flashes of adequate play as the season progressed.

And there is the problem with aggregate data. Its has uses but its aggregate and backward looking. It doesn't account for explanation of what was going on and it doesn't account for growth and synergy/learning that produces efficiencies in productively.

Its why some here missed how much progress actually took place last year because all they saw was the record. When in fact, the record is the last thing to change while progress takes a team to a tipping point where that progress translates into wins.

The Wizards didn't over night turn into a much better team. Its been happening for a while. But now they are getting over the hump so we are seeing it in wins. And now they are in a learning environment of winning instead of beaten down by the weight of losing.

Now if the can beat SA, they might get that boost in confidence and really go on a nice run.

Every once in a while, things come together and you get that synergy to produces better outcomes. That also works inversely and things can unravel.

Right now, the team seems to be gelling using mostly vets and a 2nd year Beal. After that, they are still young and have players who have untapped upside so they can get better still.

Nivek · Post #88 » by **Nivek** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 8:04 pm

Kanyewest wrote:The Wizards had an easy schedule in the first month of the season but they didn't get wins because they were still adjusting to playing with each other. Gortat was acquired only 5 days before the start of the season. It has taken a while but Gortat has finally seemed to grasp Wittman's defensive concepts.

It also took Wittman some time to fine tune his rotations- which is still a work in progress but has improved during the season. The Wizards trotted out Eric Maynor as the backup point guard during the first month of the season. The Wizards have now gone to Temple with Beal often playing with the bench. Maybe Temple hasn't been that productive but at least he is reliable defensively and has allowed Wall to get some rest rather than playing 40+ mpg which was the trend when Maynor was playing.

Nene struggled with injuries and the Wizards experimented with starting Booker. The Wizards have now found it optimal to play Gortat and Nene together. Booker has shown to be reliable. Seraphin and Vesely have shown flashes of adequate play as the season progressed.

Similar stuff can be said of nearly every team. Every team has to work stuff out. Every team has to deal with injuries, guys not performing as expected, working out a rotation. It balances out.

Bigwig · Post #89 » by **Bigwig** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 8:59 pm

tontoz wrote:
Bigwig wrote:
tontoz wrote:

The Wizards havent done it very often. They are 7-14 against teams .500 or better.

I remember watching the 13 win Hawks blow out the defending champion Pistons in Detroit years ago. When you start looking at small sample sizes they can lead you to faulty conclusions.

If "top" = ".500 or better", I guess you would say that the Wizards are a top team today, but that's not how I expected anyone to construe my statement.

What faulty conclusion did I draw from a small sample size? The point of my post was to question Nivek's methodology on the issue of consistency.

Consistency doesn't necesarily mean good as Nivek has repeatedly pointed out. it can also mean bad. For example Seraphin's rebounding has been consistently bad his whole career.

Feel free to point out any average team that has knocked off top teams "often". Do you have any examples of this?

As I wrote already, the 'Zards, recently.

Feel free to admit that you misunderstood my post--at the time, one of my top ten most brilliant, I might add.

tontoz · Post #90 » by **tontoz** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 9:10 pm

Bigwig wrote:As I wrote already, the 'Zards, recently.

Feel free to admit that you misunderstood my post--at the time, one of my top ten most brilliant, I might add.

I guess your definition of "often" must be different from mine. 2-3 games isn't often to me, especially given the way Miami/Portland were playing leading up to our game.

Donkey McDonkerton · Post #91 » by **Donkey McDonkerton** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 9:30 pm

dobrojim wrote:
Donkey McDonkerton wrote:Finally, and I was actually able to be there in person!

crowd really got into it at the end. Good vibe.

Kev's right; Consistency is not the same as good.

Having made the same optimistic prediction that Zonk made, 48 wins,
I'd love some positive inconsistency for long enough so that when we revert
to the norm, we're still solidly over .500. And in contention for the 3rd seed
or at least HC advantage in round one.

With about 4 min or so, we weren't using the clock to our advantage..... you probably heard me yell OMAHA when it got quiet!

dlts20 · Post #92 » by **dlts20** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 9:53 pm

Could les boulez be reversing? I mean in recent time we are over .500 for the first time in forever, Beal made team USA, Wall made the All Star team, weve beaten some of the best teams in the league, and are starting to get some respect from media around the league. Add to that guys like KS are finally starting to show consistentcy and if Witt cant do anything right, he has put us back in the top 10 in defense again. We are actually on the 1st page of the Hollinger rankings........lol

Kanyewest · Post #93 » by **Kanyewest** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 10:30 pm

Nivek wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:The Wizards had an easy schedule in the first month of the season but they didn't get wins because they were still adjusting to playing with each other. Gortat was acquired only 5 days before the start of the season. It has taken a while but Gortat has finally seemed to grasp Wittman's defensive concepts.

It also took Wittman some time to fine tune his rotations- which is still a work in progress but has improved during the season. The Wizards trotted out Eric Maynor as the backup point guard during the first month of the season. The Wizards have now gone to Temple with Beal often playing with the bench. Maybe Temple hasn't been that productive but at least he is reliable defensively and has allowed Wall to get some rest rather than playing 40+ mpg which was the trend when Maynor was playing.

Nene struggled with injuries and the Wizards experimented with starting Booker. The Wizards have now found it optimal to play Gortat and Nene together. Booker has shown to be reliable. Seraphin and Vesely have shown flashes of adequate play as the season progressed.

Similar stuff can be said of nearly every team. Every team has to work stuff out. Every team has to deal with injuries, guys not performing as expected, working out a rotation. It balances out.

And right now, it appears that the Wizards are balancing out as an above average team. They have shown they can play with the top teams and now its about bringing the same kind of effort against teams that they should beat.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #94 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Tue Feb 4, 2014 10:58 pm

I think 43, 44, or 45 wins are all good guesses.

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jeffsays · Post #95 » by **jeffsays** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 1:50 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I think 43, 44, or 45 wins are all good guesses.

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No way, we're not losing again!! Paloffs baby!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using RealGM Forums mobile app

hands11 · Post #96 » by **hands11** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:00 am

jeffsays wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I think 43, 44, or 45 wins are all good guesses.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

No way, we're not losing again!! Paloffs baby!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using RealGM Forums mobile app

If they can beat SA, 27-23 is easily in reach.

Once they taste that, that will be the new bench mark. Win one, lose one and they are still 4 over .500

They haven't lost more then 2 in a row since Sat, Jan 11 which was back to back against Indy and Houston.

They hovered around .500 for a good while. I think they are ready to establish a new baseline. It at least in their reach to do it.

Bigwig · Post #97 » by **Bigwig** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 5:01 am

tontoz wrote:
Bigwig wrote:As I wrote already, the 'Zards, recently.

Feel free to admit that you misunderstood my post--at the time, one of my top ten most brilliant, I might add.

I guess your definition of "often" must be different from mine. 2-3 games isn't often to me, especially given the way Miami/Portland were playing leading up to our game.

In the context of my original post, the "definition" was a high fraction of the time, but, as I already told you, the idea was to question Nivek's metric for consistency. Lucky for me, he was willing to discuss the idea respectfully instead of misconstruing/dismissing/ignoring it as you seem determined to do.

tontoz · Post #98 » by **tontoz** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:06 pm

Bigwig wrote:
In the context of my original post, the "definition" was a high fraction of the time, but, as I already told you, the idea was to question Nivek's metric for consistency. Lucky for me, he was willing to discuss the idea respectfully instead of misconstruing/dismissing/ignoring it as you seem determined to do.

And my point what that when you look at a two week sample size, as you are doing with the Wizards, you can't draw any meaningful conclusions. Portland has lost 5 games in the last two weeks. What conclusions do you draw from that?

When we beat Miami it was their 3rd straight loss to a losing team. Big deal.

payitforward · Post #99 » by **payitforward** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 3:26 pm

hands11 wrote:
jeffsays wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I think 43, 44, or 45 wins are all good guesses.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

No way, we're not losing again!! Paloffs baby!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using RealGM Forums mobile app

If they can beat SA, 27-23 is easily in reach.

Once they taste that, that will be the new bench mark. Win one, lose one and they are still 4 over .500

They haven't lost more then 2 in a row since Sat, Jan 11 which was back to back against Indy and Houston.

They hovered around .500 for a good while. I think they are ready to establish a new baseline. It at least in their reach to do it.

Reads like a stock market analysis!

Would be nice!

dckingsfan · Post #100 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed Feb 5, 2014 3:26 pm

Wed, Feb 5 vs San Antonio

Fri, Feb 7 vs Cleveland

Sun, Feb 9 vs Sacramento

Tue, Feb 11 @ Memphis

Wed, Feb 12 @ Houston

OK, somehow we need to go 3-2 in this next stretch. Sacramento is playing very well right now. With both SA and Sacramento, it will be hard to get all three at home... so we will probably need to steal one against the redhot Griz or Houston.