ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron

[Sagittaron]

Again sorry for the delay. As I said in my post in the general playoff topic some unfortunate incident required for me to have a lot more to add to my daily routine so I wasn't active at all in the forum here for the last couple of weeks. Thanks Mr. Hibachi for the notification, I wouldn't have noticed otherwise. It's not ideal as I wanted to have more time to make it more detailed but here it's my game plan.

Rotation:

PG: Magic 34 mmg / Baron Davis 18 mmg
SG: Dale Ellis 26 mmg / John Starks 20 mmg
SF: James Worthy 34 mmg / Danny Granger 20 mmg
PF: Shawn Kemp 28 mmg / Clifford Robinson 8 mmg
C: Dikembe Mutombo 26 mmg / Jermaine O'Neal 26 mmg

The plan is for O'Neal to play some PF aswell. Danny Granger and James Worthy will possibly play some PF for small streches as my plan originally was to play some small ball.

Dale Ellis will share the floor with Magic for as little time as possible for defensive game plan reasons

Offensive Strategy:

Fast break push the ball whenever you can style with heavy pick and roll at the half court set. So like the showtime Lakers the plan is to push the ball with Magic / Worthy / Kemp whenever is possible. At a half court set the main point of attack will be the pick and roll, of course with Magic running the show. Main pick and roll duo will be Magic / Kemp and secondly Magic / Worthy, depending on the defence Magic can either take it all the way to the rim if the defence switches or try to go under the screen. Also he has the option to throw a lob to roller in these situations much like CP3 does for Blake in the current version of the Clippers.

The plan is to play bench guys like Jermaine O'Neal and Baron Davis heavy minutes because they can get their own shot in the post or in ISO play respectively if the offence breaks down or in late shot clock situations. When the bench is the strategy remains pretty much the same. Baron Davis can run pick and roll with a number of options that can be deadlier than the starters in pick and pop situations (Granger and Robinson)

Generally I feel that I have great decision makers and the right amount of shooting and the occasional iso play surrounding my main guys to play a style of basketball like the showtime Lakers or the current Phoenix squad.

Defensive Strategy:

Generally a matchup situation but Magic will guard the 2 or 3 position depending on whom is in the game. My plan is to have Baron Davis and John Starks take turn guarding Steve Nash. Both are very good perimeter defenders and they can do their best keeping Nash out of his comfort zone. As I mentioned in the rotation Dale Ellis will share the floor with Magic for as little as possible. Magic and Ellis will the ones guarding the 2 or 3 as they won't be required to contain dribble penetration as much.

Dirk will be guarded with a number of different options. Kemp, Granger, Robinson and O'Neal will all take a turn on him. Granger could be the smaller defender Dirk sometimes struggled with in the past and all of the other guys have the necessary lateral speed to limit his left handed drives and length to at least pretend to contest the legendary fade away.

The rick and roll will be dealt with aggressive hedge out as I feel my front court guys are quick and agile and can recover to their man in time while not allowing the opponents ball handler to shoot or turn the corner unopposed.

[Sagittaron]

Seems that Sagittaron's family member's accident was serious, and he isn't in a good mood for this exercise here...Certainly can understand that. Damn, I hope that I'm wrong, but I think that it might be the case.

Fortunately it's not something that may cost a life. My mother suffered a fractured pelvis and my uncle a concussion so, as I mentioned in my game plan post, I have to do a lot more work at home and at work because we run a family engineer firm and I have to go inspect the all construction sites by my self now as we can't divide any of that kind of work at the moment.

Again sorry for delaying the event and I appreciate the concern voiced by some of the guys.

If you want anything more from me quote me so I get a notification because I probably won't browse the forums at all and I will try to respond when and if I get the time

[john248]

The rick and roll will be dealt with aggressive hedge

Ah, the rick roll. That can certainly throw a defense off.

[MisterHibachi]

I'm not as familiar with 09 and 10 Dirk, but 11 Dirk was not bothered by a smaller guy at all. 06 Dirk yes, 11 Dirk was a complete offensive juggernaut.

As for the pick and roll, hedging might be the worst strategy here. Miami does this all the time (along with full on trapping of the ball handler) and one of their biggest weakness is open 3 point shots. You don't wanna give open 3 point shots to ardee's team. Hedging doesn't simply depend on your big men, but also your perimeter guys. They need to be athletic and smart enough to cover the rolling big man (who you just left open by hedging) and then closing out to 3 point shooters. Even if you had the athletes, I wouldn't hedge, it's too much of a risk. All those rotations, you need to be spot on to make each possession perfect. Slightest misstep and ardee is gonna have an open 3 for his legions of 40%+ shooters.

[therealbig3]

BTW, my apologies for not responding yet (for either matchup). I'm a little busy right now and haven't had the time to make detailed posts about the matchups yet...I'll try and get to it by tomorrow.

It doesn't help that both matchups are super close at first glance.

[penbeast0]

Power v. Finesse all at 110 km/hour . . . nice. Ardee has a big advantage with spacing and outside shooting, particularly in the halfcourt sets. He has ridiculous range everywhere but center (and good range there). Interesting to see Terry Cummings used as a non-shooting defender -- his rep when starring was physical shooter/rebounder but weak defender -- but I always liked his defense and team defensive stats were always good around him considering his teams. That and you have to like a guy who wears a headband around his biceps to show off his guns . Very smart team too with Nash and Dumars running the show.

On the other side, Sags has a big, widebodied, superathletic team that can outrebound and bully Ardee. If it gets into an open court battle, I'd put my money on Sagittaron and crew. Magic running the break with Worthy and Kemp is truly aweinspiring. However, while they have some shooters (chuckers would be a better description of Baron and Starks) off the bench, the starting lineup has 4 guys who like to work inside. It worked for the Showtime Lakers and it will work here but I don't see it working nearly as effectively in the halfcourt set as Ardee's space commandos. Ellis alone isn't enough outside and he can blow hot and cold.

It will be close but in the playoffs, when the running games slow down and halfcourt games take on more importance, I'd bet on Ardee doing a high octane Spurs imitation and taking this one from the more spectacular athletes of Sagittaron. I sure wouldn't bet too much though.

Vote: Ardee

[TMACFORMVP]

This is a great matchup. Seriously. I looked at it last night, and am looking at it again right now.

I hope everything is alright Sagittaron with you and your family.

I think I'm going to do this thing out loud again....

My first impression is this. Many times people get enamored by the offensive talent that's on the board and end up building teams that don't fit necessarily well and building all out offensive teams with no real regard for defense. And while ardee admittedly didn't put much a premium defensively, the fits offensively all round are simply spectacular. It might seriously be the best offensive team I've seen in these games. Nash/Dirk is obviously deadly, but Parish was a great running big, could stick the mid-ranger, and solid around the basket. Rice is a monster (though MAYBE have to knock him a LITTLE because his best three point % years were clearly during the shortened 3 pt line - that shouldn't be much a factor, but I'm thinking outloud as I go, remember?). And Dumars fits great too. I do think ardee could have used a better defensive big men than Adams or Cummings off the bench though. IMO, that woulda been a nice contrast...or better rather.

I also really like Sagittaron's team. The spacing isn't necessarily as good as ardee's team though. Ellis certainly helps, perhaps one of the most underrated shooters ever during his peak. But I don't know if it's AS much a negative (the overall spacing I mean) in this series than others. Why? Because I think Magic with Kemp and Worthy can wreck havoc in the paint against ardee's interior defense (or lack thereof). And this can happen the entire 48 minutes..I also don't know if there's any better player in the history of the league to orchestrate that gameplan of getting easy buckets than Magic.

To be fair though, even though Dumars gives up height to Magic, you could do a lot worse than Joe D. on the perimeter defensively.

One point I'm not sure if it was addressed (will have to look again right now) is that Sagittaron's team is noticeably better on the boards. Mutombo > Parish. Kemp > Dirk (though Dirk as we know was a very good defensive rebounder). Worthy > Rice, and Magic > Nash. I mean that's a noticeable gap. So the two things Sagittaron has got going for him is that he's got the best player in the series that can truly exploit ardee's lack of interior defense, and a nice rebounding edge.

BUT....I keep going back to ardee's amazing offense, and haven't touched on the fact that Sagittaron's team isn't world beaters defensively either despite having Deke. And what good is rebounding if you can't get any stops? I don't know anyway that Sagittaron's team can stop Nash/Dirk. And that's going to lead into an amazing

And I also have to keep in mind that even though there isn't enough interior d on ardee's team, and that Magic/Kemp/Worthy could all score in the paint....that doesn't automatically mean that Sagittaron's team will be living in the paint all the time. Because in order to be a beast team in the paint, you gotta be great in transition, have a post player ideally, but also have deadly shooting. I kinda think of the current Rockets (because I'm a Rockets fan...I don't know how relevant this is, but again, I'm thinking outloud!!). But the Rockets are one of the best teams at scoring in the paint. Yeah they got Dwight, and get out in transition, but b/c they have shooters (or at least guys you have to honor, because the Rockets aren't a good 3% team this year...but they're among in the leaders in attempts - so as a result also in makes too), it allows our perimeter guys to break down the defense b/c of spacing. Just look at the difference in the offense when Asik/Dwight were on the floor.

OK, now I'm rambling because obviously Sagittaron's team isn't that bad at spacing (like the example I used of Asik/Dwight)...but Magic hadn't got the exact range he'd get later, Worthy/Kemp weren't long range shooters. Deke wasn't Ben Wallace bad offensively, but he's not a huge threat, which kinda makes me think again....that as much as I've ripped ardee's defense (sorry!), he can actually do some things defensively in this game. Again, Joe D. on Magic (I like the reference to DJ), and the ability to maybe help a little off Deke to protect the rim, with not THAT sharp shooting in the starting lineup, then maybe ardee can at least not get throttled defensively. To be fair though, Sagittaron has got some floor spacers off the bench. Baron/Starks weren't particularly efficient, but provided enough spacing because of sheer volume.

OK, I've got to make a decision. Sagittaron has got the best player with a good gameplan and better on the boards. ardee's team is flat out amazing offensively and maybe has an underrated defensive gameplan v. Sagittaron's team in particular. Like the theme of all this stuff I've said, the thing I keep going back to is that I fail to see how Sagittaron's team can defend ardee's team. And IMO, that's the slight difference.

I don't know why I said I'd judge. I hate making these decisions. ATM, I'm feelin....

Vote: ardee

[ardee]

Thanks for the vote TMAC4MVP, though I think you're underestimating my defense.

I don't have out and out monster anchors, like say for example, Bruh Man's team, but I think through high IQ players and hard work they'll do a decent job.

Parish, for starters, is very athletic. He wasn't known as a monster anchor but he can make rotations well, and in this case, he's matched up with a non-factor offensively so he can shade anyone he needs to.

Dirk was a very solid post defender in the years I chose. Remember the job he did on Pau in 2011? He'll have Parish's help on Kemp here too.

Rice and Nash are admittedly not part of the argument but Joe Dumars is one of the greatest perimeter defenders ever. In any case, Nash will be on the non-Magic PG who by design will probably never be initiating plays anyway, all he has to do is stay home on shooters. Rice loses badly to Worthy, no question, though I feel Worthy posting up is not a very efficient way to run your offense. If Sag chooses to exploit that matchup I'll be thrilled, because he's taking the ball out of Magic's hands.

Off the bench I have Bell, a 3-and-D guy in the Bowen/Christie mold, Pressey, one of the best defenders of the 80s, Cummings, a strong as hell banger who was a part of a defensive dynasty in Milwaukee, and Adams, who IMO is a little underrated on that end. I chose him mainly for his passing but I think his high IQ made up for his lack of athleticism and he was a good help defender the way M. Gasol is.

For a few times during games, I'll be able to play Dumars, Bell and Pressey together and absolutely swarm the perimeter. Magic will be able to deal with it but I don't think guys like Starks and Ellis have the floor game and composure to deal with a hounding defense like that. In fact I'll use this tactic specifically when Magic is out, and just create multiple turnovers and wreak havoc.

You touched on his lack of spacing but I think it's a bigger issue than you make it seem like. Ellis is really the only good 3-point shooter he has. Starks and Davis are not shooters. Starks is really a bad offensive player point blank. The more Sag plays him the more I'll love it. I can run a zone very easily and seal of the paint if need be.

Overall I think you're underestimating my team defensively. Not that it matters because you've chosen me anyway but keep this post in mind for later rounds

[ronnymac2]

Wow, talk about offense...

PG: Magic 34 mmg / Baron Davis 18 mmg
SG: Dale Ellis 26 mmg / John Starks 20 mmg
SF: James Worthy 34 mmg / Danny Granger 20 mmg
PF: Shawn Kemp 28 mmg / Clifford Robinson 8 mmg
C: Dikembe Mutombo 26 mmg / Jermaine O'Neal 26 mmg

Steve Nash (36 mpg)/Tony Parker (12 mpg)
Joe Dumars (32 mpg)/Raja Bell (12 mpg)/Tony Parker (4 mpg)
Glen Rice (34 mpg)/Paul Pressey (14 mpg)
Dirk Nowitzki (40 mpg)/Terry Cummings (8 mpg)
Robert Parish (35 mpg)/Alvan Adams (8 mpg)/Terry Cummings (5 mpg)

This is incredible. Two of the GOAT PG's, some of the best dunkers ever in Kemp/Worthy/B-Diddy, some of the GOAT shooters in Dirk/Rice/Nash/Ellis.

OK, so Ardee is running pick-n-rolls/pops with Dirk and Nash or putting Dirk in the mid-post against Kemp. Either matchup is favorable. He not only has great shooters in Dumars/Rice spreading the floor, but also Parish, who can make Deke pay for guarding the paint too much.

Kemp was a very good, mobile defender, but trapping this team is risky. Dumars is an adequate ball-handler. When Pressey is in, he can relieve pressure as well. Obviously running the HCO through Dirk solves a lot of problems. Nash/Pressey/Dumars/Dirk/Parker/Bell are very smart and great at making swing passes. This is an incredibly deadly offensive squad.

I don't think Kemp is a great man defender against Nowitzki. He's a good man defender in general, but not against Dirk. He's not a disciplined defensive player, and with Dirk playing farther out than most big men, Kemp will have problems.

I would have rather seen a SF who can cut baseline, pin down players on the box, and hit the offensive glass for easy baskets on Ardee's team. As great as the shooting is, they will go through lulls. Mutombo should average about 14 defensive rebounds per game and shut down the paint when the starters are in. Having four players operate 20-25 feet away from the basket has its advantages and disadvantages.

That said, Parker/Cummings is a good change of pace. They can both finish inside well. I don't see a point in Parker/Nash ever sharing the floor, but it's four minutes...

On the other side, Magic Johnson is the best player in the series, and the defense really doesn't have much of an answer for him. Joe Dumars was a very good man defender, but Magic will do whatever he wants against him. Kemp's efficiency should be good with Magic feeding him. I like James Worthy iso'ing Glen Rice. Worthy is an underrated half-court player. He had a lightning quick first step and will torch Rice, who was a poor defender.

I don't like Sagittaron's strategy of not playing Magic and Dale Ellis together a lot. I get it because Starks and Davis are better defensive players to put on Nash, but that takes away from spacing. With a bunch of interior scoring threats in Kemp/Worthy/Deke/Magic, you need a little more outside shooting than that. Granger and Robinson do remedy that situation a bit, however. Jermaine O'Neal had a solid j, too.

I like Parish/Dirk on the defensive glass; excellent boxing out, and both are elite at actually securing the defensive rebound themselves. Magic/Kemp/Deke is amazing at offensive rebounding though. That's a vicious interior attack. Parish/Dirk can only do so much. Nash/Dumars/Rice offer little to no help on the glass.

Sagittaron can't defend Ardee's team's execution. What makes this close it that Ardee's team will go through lulls. I also think Sagittaron's offense, though flawed, can abuse certain matchups here as well as the offensive glass.

Sagittaron also talked about going small. I like that strategy, especially with pick-n-rolls/pops involving Davis and Granger or Robinson. Not a fan of Jermaine O'Neal Isos though.

In the end, this goes seven games. I just don't think Sagittaron has the personnel to slow down Ardee's offense enough for four games. Ardee also has an offensive team that balances the floor, takes care of the ball, and gets back in transition since they are spread out (Dirk had this effect during his time period, especially in 2011), so it can at least provide some semblance of resistance against Sagittaron's transition attack.

Very fun series. Should see offensive ratings in the 118-125 range. GOAT offensive showings right there.

Vote: Ardee

[SideshowBob]

Lots of offense all around. This is obviously going to be a high scoring series. The key here is that I ardee's team just has a higher ceiling offensively, and Saggitaron's better defense doesn't match up well enough to make up for it.

Ardee's got an answer for everything on offense, starting with the Nash/Nowitzki core and working out. PnR/PnP with those two alone is an all-time level threat IMO, then you consider the kind of cutting/movement and outside shooting you get with Pressey/Rice/Bell ( ) (like Parker at the 2 for those 4 minutes as well), Parish can lead the charge on the offensive glass, Parker (what a steal that low) can offer a completely different look on the offensive end, like him working off the ball both as a scoring threat and a creator, and you know he's going to find those shooters. Further, I like the pick of 09-11 Dirk over earlier seasons; you can milk his high/mid-post game while still retaining much of what made him so deadly before. We saw what happened with the Dallas in 2011. I can only imagine that the results would be even more insane here. This might be the deadliest halfcourt offense in this whole project.

Saggitaron's halfcourt is going to be solid, but I think its a clear step down from the opponent. 1-4 PnR is the go-to here, as the bigs can't really create for themselves at an elite level (JO perhaps, but I don't like his reliance on jumpers). The finishing is going to be magnificent with Kemp frequently rolling, and there's some spacing allotted when Ellis/Granger are on the floor. I you could have Worthy and Davis focus on attacking and collapsing. Would have preferred maybe 87-89 Magic here instead of the earlier one. He's more dynamic in the halfcourt; better shooting, more experience and diversity in the post, etc. He's just got more creativity and aggression in creating scoring options for himself and by definition, the team. Not that this team is going to go through frequent lulls, but I think they'd be less likely to do so with an older Magic, while also being that much more versatile. As ardee said, he's going to have to do a lot of the creation here, and he's better equipped to do so in later years.

I like what we'd see from Saggitaron's team on the break, and this team is going to have to rely heavily on that. That's some insane finishing ability with Worthy/Kemp and Ellis trailing, Worthy can also hit that pull up 15-18 footer as well and Magic/Davis are can also simply run the break and score. On the other hand I don't think ardee has anywhere near the finishing ability, but those shooters! Anyone of those backcourt players gets a quick start off a defensive rebound and Nash can find them spotting up before anyone else even gets back there. Any basket pressure applied in transition and you've got Nowitzki of all people trailing on the secondary break. Just lots of potential there.

Ardee's defense is middling at best IMO. Dirk's solid for his position, he's fairly adequate 1-on-1, plays pretty mistake free in the team scheme and his extremely high usage/low turnover style limits the creation of easy transition buckets for opponents. On the perimeter I like the Dumars/Bell/Pressey rotation; we get length and athleticism and they're not going to make it easy for any backcourt players to get to the basket, though on the other hand, Nash is going to struggle with any sort of athleticism. Maybe a -1 or -2 defensive team but the ridiculous offense MORE than makes up for that, which Saggitarron's team just won't be able to handle.

On the flipside, I like Deke as the protector in the middle coupled with Kemp's lateral game, but I just don't see how that being disruptive enough. Don't think anyone is well equipped to cover Dirk; as ronny said, Kemp lacks the discipline to cover him outside, and I don't see 09-11 Dirk having any struggles with a smaller guy like Granger, despite his length. Solid interior and decent perimeter personnel, but I don't think ardee's offense will be deterred, so the key is the glass. Sagitaron has a clear advantage on both ends here IMO; Chief is the major threat for offensive boards and him and Dirk are a pretty strong combo on the defensive end, but I think Saggitaron's got a wider range of personnel here, he's got good-great rebounders at every position. If they're going to be winning games, its going to have to be by creating more possessions for themselves by utterly dominating battle on the glass. I don't think that's going to be sustainable at a rate that overcomes ardee's offense, and I don't see them taking a series here.

Vote: ardee

[Texas Chuck]

Let me start by saying Magic V Nash is awesome to think about. The two best offensive PGs of all time with plenty of weapons to play with? Yeah I'd watch that.

First thing that comes to my mind is the idea of the worst defensive team in the tournament having to go against the GOAT pg and in the discussion of GOAT offensive player ever in Magic. That concerns me a lot for ardee. Id also be concerned when Sag had both Magic and BD in the game together because Nash then becomes an enormous liability because there is literally no one he can even pretend to guard.

Id also be concerned as ardee about rebounding. Chief and Dirk are solid on the defensive boards, but they are going to have their hands full. Deke is going to be a problem and Kemp and Worthy are the athletic O-rebounders that occasionally give Dirk problems and they arent getting much help at all from the perimeter guys. They won't get offensive rebounds hardly at all, tho against Magic I prefer the idea of Dirk and Rice hustling back to defend. I wouldnt be pursuing offensive rebounds anyway so that mitigates things. Still I hate the idea of the athletes on Magic's team being able to close on shooters and leak out with no fear. Magic will find them.

Half-court tho ardee's squad is virtually unguardable. And I don't think Sag has the team to stop them. He has no one who would seem to give Dirk any problems and he has to go to his bench to find someone to slow Nash. I think BDavis should be getting a bulk of the minutes next to Magic in this matchup because he's the best matchup for Nash. Ideally Magic would be guarding Rice, but I just dont see how he can get that matchup often enough. I think ardee wins 2 games just by overwhelming offense. Its possible he loses one due to shots not falling, but Dirk and Nash are so good they could overcome being off from outside. Its a huge huge problem for any team in this to deal with.

I think Magic's team is going to have no problems in the half-court either. There is nowhere to hide Nash because Rice can't slide down and take a tough matchup for him. Magic, Worthy, and Kemp are all going to present big problems for their defenders and Deke is getting underrated for his offense. He was never a big volume guy--and wouldnt be here either, but he was very effective in the post and he has a clear size advantage. Plus you have Magic.

So this is going to be a high-scoring affair. Sag's team is better defensively, but they don't match up well and despite my love of Deke he's not enough. So Im going to have decide--do I believe in Magic or do I believe in Dirk/Nash? Its really close. But because I think ardee's team is going to get back and make it a half-court game enough Im going to give his team the nod. But its close.

Vote: ardee in 7

[MisterHibachi]

bastillon
TMACFORMVP: ardee
penbeast0: ardee
ronnymac2: ardee
Doctor MJ
SideshowBob: ardee
Texas Chuck: ardee
therealbig3

ardee moves on.

[Laimbeer]

Pretty surprised at the "landslide". Ardee's defense is awfully weak. It will be interesting to follow them the rest of the tournament.