Official John Wall Appreciation Thread 2.0

[hands11]

Oh. Glad Wall made the AS team so he has that behind him.

I expect some transition period as he deals with his new found success. He might try to do to much for a period of time. Then I expect he will settle in again.

Beal might even try to do to much in order to play catch up.

Its another level of adjustment the player have to make.

Just all part of dealing with success.

One the good side of it, hopefully the refs give him an little more benefit of the doubt now.

[Nivek]

I feel like I'm looking into one of those bent mirrors. Wall is NOT a more versatile scorer because he takes (and misses) lots of 2pt jumpers. They're bad shots -- first because they're low-yield shots, second because they're exactly what the defense wants him to do, and third because he doesn't shoot them well. If Wall focused his offensive game on drives and threes, he'd be more efficient, the team would be more efficient, and Wall would probably be the elite player some folks imagine he already is.

And this is where I disagree. Stat guys like you and PIF are treating efficiency as the end, when it's really a means to an end. The end is scoring the basket. And you can still win by scoring more baskets than the other team less efficiently. You can not win if you score less baskets than them, no matter how efficiently they come.

You really have no idea what you disagree with. The reason efficiency matters is that teams get about the same number of possessions in a game. Sometimes you'll get a difference of one or two possessions, but basketball is a game where the opponents take turns with the ball until time runs out. Efficiency is not an end (which is decidedly NOT what payitforward and I are saying), it's a measure of what a team or player does with the possessions they have. If two teams have the same number of possessions, the more efficient team wins. As payitforward might say: It's not possible to formulate a counter-argument.

I read statements that 2 pt jumpers are bad shots all the time, and it's just a decontextualized platitude that doesn't really mean much. The quality of a shot always depends on the situation it comes in. Sometimes 2 pt jumpers are the BEST shots because the best shot is an open shot. An open mid range jumper is a better shot than a contested three or layup.

Not from me you don't. Many, MANY times I've said that sometimes 2pt jumpers are necessary. But, not because they're "open," but because the shot clock is winding down and the offense hasn't gotten a good shot yet. If the criteria is "open," then Wall should just pull the trigger from mid court every time, right? But, everyone would agreed that's a bad idea because mid-court shots don't go in very often.

In general, 2pt jumpers should be a last resort. In general, they should be an attempt later in the shot clock when the offense hasn't been able to get a good shot. In Wall's case, he's shooting 36% on 2pt jumpers. What's good about that? Answer: not very damn much. These attempts bail out the defense -- he's not attacking the paint and forcing help or rotations, he's not shooting the higher yield three, he's not getting to the rim for a higher percentage shot, and he's not drawing fouls.

Think about it like this: If you were the opposing coach, and you were given the option to choose what play Wall makes on offense: drive to the basket, pull-up 2pt jumper, or three-point attempt, which would you choose? Anything other than pull-up 2pt jumper is wrong. And yet, 43% of Wall's FGA this season are jumpers from 10-23 feet.

An open 2pt jumper is better than a turnover. But taking -- and missing -- a lot of jumpers because they're open...that's not good basketball.

If you want to be a top ten usage player like Wall and you're not LeBron James, then you have to do more than shoot threes and drive the basket.

Why is it important for Wall to be a top ten usage player? There are no points for field goal ATTEMPTS -- only for made baskets. There's value in guys who are BOTH high usage and high efficiency. And Wall actually isn't all that far from that despite his sub-par shooting and poor shot selection. His ortg is about league average with high usage, but it could be significantly better if he could a) change his shot selection by reducing the number of 2pt jumpers; or b) perhaps reducing his shooting overall to focus more on helping get good shots for his teammates and getting GOOD shots for himself.

Otherwise NBA defense WILL stop you and you will be a much lower usage player and your team's offense will run through a different player. If Kyle Lowry was his team's first option and using the amount of possessions that Wall uses, then his efficiency would drop too because he would HAVE to take mid range jumpers, among other things. Because teams would defend him easily by going over ball screens, playing up on him on the perimeter, and packing the paint inside. An offense built around Lowry as that kind of option would suck. Our offense doesn't suck, because Wall is a superior scorer, passer, and ball handler.

You're correct in the sense that there's no value in simply using possessions. But, you're actually making the exact case payitforward and myself have been making. We agree that mid-range shots and 2pt jumpers are lower-yield attempts that should be last resorts. In other words, don't pull up from 18 feet with 16 seconds still on the shot clock because, "hey it's open." Work for a good shot first, and then shoot that 18-footer when there's 5 seconds or fewer on the shot clock. It'll be there.

[hands11]

While we are saying the say thing Niv, I think part of the problem is that Randy tells them....

If you are open, shoot it. Its likely the best shot we will have that possession.

Now what do you do with that ?

I have heard more then one Wizard player echo this idea.

On the counter, I would prefer players have defined shot locations and types of shots. Makes the decision making process easier for that player, and for his teammates. Everyone knows better what to expect and where the play options are. I think Nene knows how to do this and in a strange way, I find the offense runs move efficiently and predictably when it is run through him.

This is the kind of offense SA runs. Nene actually does a decent job of playing Tim D in the offense. The problem is Wall doesn't do as effective a job of being Tony Parker.

Granted. Nothing ever works 100% of the time. But you get as close to it as possible. Then if something is to change, the coach instructs it to change. Now everything knows what the change is and how to play off of it.

I call it coaching.

I get the sense Randy does this kind of thing on defense. On offense, he just runs concepts like EFJ used to.

There in lies the problem. Its kind of on Wall to fix himself because I don't see Randy doing it.

[Nivek]

Yeah, hands -- the message from coaches is misguided, at best. A shot isn't good merely because it's open. Telling Wall, for example, to take a 36% shot because he's open is bad coaching. I'd sooo like to see a really good coach at the helm of this team, but I don't want Grunfeld choosing the next guy, even on an interim basis.

This is one case where I'm ambivalent on the research, by the way. The studies done on coaching and player productivity indicates that few coaches have an effect, good or bad. When it comes to player production, what a player does is what a player does. But then I see what Wittman's staff is encoraging the team to do on offense, and I wonder if a different, better coach could make a difference. I think this team would be better with someone like Stan Van Gundy as head coach.

[tontoz]

In general, 2pt jumpers should be a last resort. In general, they should be an attempt later in the shot clock when the offense hasn't been able to get a good shot. In Wall's case, he's shooting 36% on 2pt jumpers. What's good about that? Answer: not very damn much. These attempts bail out the defense -- he's not attacking the paint and forcing help or rotations, he's not shooting the higher yield three, he's not getting to the rim for a higher percentage shot, and he's not drawing fouls.

Think about it like this: If you were the opposing coach, and you were given the option to choose what play Wall makes on offense: drive to the basket, pull-up 2pt jumper, or three-point attempt, which would you choose? Anything other than pull-up 2pt jumper is wrong. And yet, 43% of Wall's FGA this season are jumpers from 10-23 feet.

An open 2pt jumper is better than a turnover. But taking -- and missing -- a lot of jumpers because they're open...that's not good basketball..

Too many of WAll's long 2s are shot without anyone else touching the ball. I cringe when i see him take that pullup j in transition.

That and careless turnovers really hurt his effectiveness.

[AFM]

What's he shooting on that elbow jumper?

[payitforward]

I feel like I'm looking into one of those bent mirrors. Wall is NOT a more versatile scorer because he takes (and misses) lots of 2pt jumpers. They're bad shots -- first because they're low-yield shots, second because they're exactly what the defense wants him to do, and third because he doesn't shoot them well. If Wall focused his offensive game on drives and threes, he'd be more efficient, the team would be more efficient, and Wall would probably be the elite player some folks imagine he already is.

And this is where I disagree. Stat guys like you and PIF are treating efficiency as the end, when it's really a means to an end. The end is scoring the basket.

And this is where I disagree -- only it's not just "disagree", because your mistake is obvious. The end is certainly *not* "scoring the basket." It's winning the game. The scoring differences between teams that win and those that lose are quite small. And the difference between those winning and losing teams is created 100% by efficiency -- in shooting and rebounding. Pretty much everything else washes out over a large sample.

And you can still win by scoring more baskets than the other team less efficiently. You can not win if you score less baskets than them, no matter how efficiently they come.

Oh wow... And how exactly can you score more baskets than the other team less efficiently? Well... leaving 3-pointers and FTs out for the moment, you can do it by taking more shots -- and only by taking more shots. And how do you get to take more shots? By more efficient rebounding (and to a less significant degree by holding down turnovers and upping steals).

Being good at threes and getting to the line increase efficiency -- they aren't an example of winning w/ lower efficiency. And you made the claim that Lowry's scoring on 3s and drives (wch get you to the line more frequently than long 2point attempts!) weren't significant.

I read statements that 2 pt jumpers are bad shots all the time, and it's just a decontextualized platitude that doesn't really mean much. The quality of a shot always depends on the situation it comes in. Sometimes 2 pt jumpers are the BEST shots because the best shot is an open shot. An open mid range jumper is a better shot than a contested three or layup.

Ridiculous! Do you mean that sometimes a 2point shot is the best shot you have? Of course, that's true. Just as sometimes two dimes is all you have in your pocket. But that doesn't make 2 dimes worth more than a dollar, dude! And long 2 point attempts produce fewer points per shot for a team than 3s and drives. And the shots that produce more points per attempt give you more points! Duh. They help you win the game!

If you want to be a top ten usage player like Wall and you're not LeBron James, then you have to do more than shoot threes and drive the basket. Otherwise NBA defense WILL stop you and you will be a much lower usage player and your team's offense will run through a different player. If Kyle Lowry was his team's first option and using the amount of possessions that Wall uses, then his efficiency would drop too because he would HAVE to take mid range jumpers, among other things. Because teams would defend him easily by going over ball screens, playing up on him on the perimeter, and packing the paint inside. An offense built around Lowry as that kind of option would suck. Our offense doesn't suck, because Wall is a superior scorer, passer, and ball handler.

I can't take the time to unpack the circular logic of this sequence of statements, but "want to be a top ten usage player" is a weird notion. Totally weird.

[tontoz]

What's he shooting on that elbow jumper?

Here is his shot chart.

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.ht ... rID=202322

[hands11]

Thats the way to start a game.

That might have been the best start I have ever seen from Wall. He made back to back to back amazing look away passes to feed the post for easy shots.

Now thats how you do it.

I think we just saw Wall take another step. So far, being an AS seems to be doing his mind well.

Wall could have come in looking to do to much but instead it looks more like he was able to exhale and now he was able to be a little more instinctive in what he was doing.

[Brenice]

Thats the way to start a game.

That might have been the best start I have ever seen from Wall. He made back to back to back amazing look away passes to feed the post for easy shots.

Now thats how you do it.

I think we just saw Wall take another step. So far, being an AS seems to be doing his mind well.

Wall could have come in looking to do to much but instead it looks more like he was able to exhale and now he was able to be a little more instinctive in what he was doing.

All-star monkey off back. 2 to go.

+.500
Playoff

[Illmatic21]

Thats the way to start a game.

That might have been the best start I have ever seen from Wall. He made back to back to back amazing look away passes to feed the post for easy shots.

Now thats how you do it.

I think we just saw Wall take another step. So far, being an AS seems to be doing his mind well.

Wall could have come in looking to do to much but instead it looks more like he was able to exhale and now he was able to be a little more instinctive in what he was doing.

All-star monkey off back. 2 to go.

+.500
Playoff

It would be awesome if he accomplished both of those this season (and maybe even a second round appearance in the playoffs).. I think we'd see him come in next year with sky-high confidence and establish himself as a top 10 player like Paul George, Steph Curry did.

[Higga]

Yeah, hands -- the message from coaches is misguided, at best. A shot isn't good merely because it's open. Telling Wall, for example, to take a 36% shot because he's open is bad coaching. I'd sooo like to see a really good coach at the helm of this team, but I don't want Grunfeld choosing the next guy, even on an interim basis.

This is one case where I'm ambivalent on the research, by the way. The studies done on coaching and player productivity indicates that few coaches have an effect, good or bad. When it comes to player production, what a player does is what a player does. But then I see what Wittman's staff is encoraging the team to do on offense, and I wonder if a different, better coach could make a difference. I think this team would be better with someone like Stan Van Gundy as head coach.

Agree with everything you're saying. I love Wall, but I hate those long 2 point shots. Now he was hitting them against OKC the other night, but I still don't like those shots. Either attack the basket, or take a couple steps back and go for the 3.

Wittman aka Witless is just an awful coach. I wish we could replace him but he'll probably get a long term extension once we make the playoffs.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Looks like John Wall will be in the dunk contest. Damm*t, this means I actually have to watch this year haha.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Looks like John Wall will be in the dunk contest. Damm*t, this means I actually have to watch this year haha.

Really stupid decision.

Balky knees, bad back.

Nothing good can come from this. Let guys who don't play a lot of minutes participate.

[GhostsOfGil]

Looks like John Wall will be in the dunk contest. Damm*t, this means I actually have to watch this year haha.

Source?

[AFM]

Looks like John Wall will be in the dunk contest. Damm*t, this means I actually have to watch this year haha.

Really stupid decision.

Balky knees, bad back.

Nothing good can come from this. Let guys who don't play a lot of minutes participate.

Except truly launch him into the realm of superstar....
This is great for his status around the league. He's not going to injure himself doing 3 dunks on camera.

It's going to be awesome.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Looks like John Wall will be in the dunk contest. Damm*t, this means I actually have to watch this year haha.

Source?

http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post ... better-now

[keynote]

I'm glad Wall is entering the dunk contest. This isn't like the Home Run Derby; I can't think of anyone in recent memory who aggravated an injury or threw off their shooting stroke by participating in the dunk contest.

That being said: I liked his chances of winning more when I thought Paul George wasn't going to participate. It's good for Wall that George is in there -- his presence elevates the entire field -- but the most popular athlete always has an advantage, especially if it comes down to fan voting. Right now, George is a much more visible star than Wall (1.2M fan votes to Wall's ~400K votes). And, he's a great dunker to boot. The NBA might view this as George's coronation into LeBron/Durant superstar status.

Wall is really gonna have to bring the funk in order to outshine him. And that's putting aside what a professional dunker like Ross can do.

[stevemcqueen1]

Yeah this is a great field this year. I'm glad Wall and George and Lillard are in because they bring so much more interest to the event. For one thing, I'll actually watch it this year.

I think Wall will do well. George has to be the favorite and Ross won it last year, but Wall is a slick ball handler with a flair for the spectacular. I think he's more of an in the moment dunker, but he has the skills for a dunk contest.

I'm curious to see Lillard. He's not known as a dunker but that guy is explosive and can launch from really far away. I wouldn't be surprised if he came out of nowhere and did some entertaining stuff.

[DCZards]

The NBA has to be thrilled about getting George, Wall, Lillard and Ross in this year's dunk contest. With that group, you have three of the best young ballers in the NBA, all of them all-stars, along with the reigning dunk champ.

Compare that to last year when Ross was joined by no names like Gerald Green, James White and Jeremy Evans, and two good, but relatively unknown, players in Faried and Bledsoe.

Big difference.