Olynyk's rookie season

[KGboss]

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

This is where the big tell shows in your argument. you say 3 to 4 years then say 27. big difference in 27 to 25. By 25 we will know who Olynyk is. Rondo is 27. If Rondo was still as average/bad as he was his rookie season - at 25 he wouldve already been gone.

You need to give guys time. Stop labeling and calling players after half a season a finished product. Theres no way you could possibly know any of that, just like bbd24 said. give it time.

[BRUNiNHO91]

Loved the way he played in Milwaukee. He needs to just let it fly when he's open. Great shooter. You certainly hang on to him for his entire rookie deal and see what you get.

[shawn unkempt]

Spencer Hawes 2.0

[Golabki]

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

This is where the big tell shows in your argument. you say 3 to 4 years then say 27. big difference in 27 to 25. By 25 we will know who Olynyk is. Rondo is 27. If Rondo was still as average/bad as he was his rookie season - at 25 he wouldve already been gone.

You need to give guys time. Stop labeling and calling players after half a season a finished product. Theres no way you could possibly know any of that, just like bbd24 said. give it time.

at the end of his 4th year he'll be 26... Should have said 26, but the point stands.

I feel like you are just arguing against projecting players at all... Which seems odd.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[tlee324]

I guess it's more about making too hasty a projection. I actually don't even think his rookie year has been disappointing so far...I just didn't have the same expectations as many others did, I suppose. He looks like he'll turn out to be a contributor as the next couple of seasons pass, injuries permitting. He has displayed a good skillset, just doesn't yet have consistency, which is substantially related to his physical strength and endurance needing much improvement. I think he'll be fine, though.

[threrf23]

Caron Butler was compared to Paul Pierce and it was accurate even if Butler only made one all star game as a reserve.

Seriously? Maybe he was a poor man's PP but even still when I think of players that I view as being in PP's mold Caron Butler doesn't come to mind.

Avery Bradley rookie year was interrupted by injury and he looked lost. Second year he was an impact player. KO has showed more this year than rookie Avery so why give up on him especially now that he is finally playing like he did in summer league?

Avery Bradley turned 20 y/o around Thanksgiving his rookie season. KO was 22 at the beginning of this season. Developmentally, I would hypothesize that the difference between 20 and 22 is probably equal to this difference between 23 and 28. KO already took a huge step forward after he turned 21, as do many players.

Not to mention, AB looked lost up until Doc realized he was a SG and not a PG. So we never got a good chance to evaluate him his rookie season.

I don't really disagree with the rest of your post. He doesn't have to be Dirk to be valuable.

[sam_I_am]

Caron Butler was compared to Paul Pierce and it was accurate even if Butler only made one all star game as a reserve.

Seriously? Maybe he was a poor man's PP but even still when I think of players that I view as being in PP's mold Caron Butler doesn't come to mind.

Avery Bradley rookie year was interrupted by injury and he looked lost. Second year he was an impact player. KO has showed more this year than rookie Avery so why give up on him especially now that he is finally playing like he did in summer league?

Avery Bradley turned 20 y/o around Thanksgiving his rookie season. KO was 22 at the beginning of this season. Developmentally, I would hypothesize that the difference between 20 and 22 is probably equal to this difference between 23 and 28. KO already took a huge step forward after he turned 21, as do many players.

Not to mention, AB looked lost up until Doc realized he was a SG and not a PG. So we never got a good chance to evaluate him his rookie season.

I don't really disagree with the rest of your post. He doesn't have to be Dirk to be valuable.

Seriously, Caron Butler was hyped in the draft as the second coming of Paul Pierce and it was accurate. He just isn't as good and ceiling was lower. People compare Anthony Davis to KG ... I understand the comparison and there is better chance he comes closer to prime KG than KO will ever to Dirk, but at some time Davis is not the Big Ticket.

KO can be a Dirk like player, but I seriously doubt he is ever a perennial all-star. KO can do the things Dirk does, just not at a HOF level. I do think he can be a solid sixth man and I think his savvy will make him a better pro than other Dirk-liters like Bargnani for example.

As far as KO - Avery comparisons based on age, you have to factor in that 7 footers can take a lot longer to mature into their bodies and KO is unusual in that he was a PG in HS and his growth spurt happened so late. He also took a year off in college so he has very little experience playing as a big.

If Bass gets traded at deadline, KO is going to get big minutes and we will start to see the summer league KO. He will get exposed for sure because he has weaknesses but with longer minutes he is going to be more consistent and comfortable with the things he does well.

[klemen4]

Im satisfied with what Olynyk has shown in his rookie season. In his first games I though he has bad hands as far as rebounds are concerned, but that improved during the season. He sure has a nice shooting form and was probably far the best jump shooting big man in draft. I also think he is better defender as people though he will be.

3rd big man off the bench...picking 13th you can not expect a lot more than that, good pick imo!

[KGboss]

3 or 4 years seems generous... Are you really going to with hold judgement untitled he's 27? But I agree - he should get at least 2 years before we call him a bust.

This is where the big tell shows in your argument. you say 3 to 4 years then say 27. big difference in 27 to 25. By 25 we will know who Olynyk is. Rondo is 27. If Rondo was still as average/bad as he was his rookie season - at 25 he wouldve already been gone.

You need to give guys time. Stop labeling and calling players after half a season a finished product. Theres no way you could possibly know any of that, just like bbd24 said. give it time.

at the end of his 4th year he'll be 26... Should have said 26, but the point stands.

I feel like you are just arguing against projecting players at all... Which seems odd.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

You can project a player but now you are back peddling. You and others saying Olynyk is a FINISHED product is not projecting anything. You are stopping the buck short before it even starts. The biggest word in PROJECTION, is PROJECT...thats what rookies are.

[Golabki]

This is where the big tell shows in your argument. you say 3 to 4 years then say 27. big difference in 27 to 25. By 25 we will know who Olynyk is. Rondo is 27. If Rondo was still as average/bad as he was his rookie season - at 25 he wouldve already been gone.

You need to give guys time. Stop labeling and calling players after half a season a finished product. Theres no way you could possibly know any of that, just like bbd24 said. give it time.

at the end of his 4th year he'll be 26... Should have said 26, but the point stands.

I feel like you are just arguing against projecting players at all... Which seems odd.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

You can project a player but now you are back peddling. You and others saying Olynyk is a FINISHED product is not projecting anything. You are stopping the buck short before it even starts. The biggest word in PROJECTION, is PROJECT...thats what rookies are.

at no point did I say KO is a finished product. Read the text you quoted!

My point is that on the whole KO has had a disappointing rookie year so far. It has probably hurt his value.

Overall I think KO has the potential to be an excellent role player (circa brad miller or scola), but could also end up as a fringe rotation guy.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[sam_I_am]

at the end of his 4th year he'll be 26... Should have said 26, but the point stands.

I feel like you are just arguing against projecting players at all... Which seems odd.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

You can project a player but now you are back peddling. You and others saying Olynyk is a FINISHED product is not projecting anything. You are stopping the buck short before it even starts. The biggest word in PROJECTION, is PROJECT...thats what rookies are.

at no point did I say KO is a finished product. Read the text you quoted!

My point is that on the whole KO has had a disappointing rookie year so far. It has probably hurt his value.

Overall I think KO has the potential to be an excellent role player (circa brad miller or scola), but could also end up as a fringe rotation guy.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I really don't think KO has been disappointing based on draft position. However, after summer league we thought we had the best player in draft and so in a sense he couldn't help but disappoint. To be fair, he has had two injuries and two solid veterans who took advantage of that to steal his playing time.

I again point out that Celtic rookie forwards under Doc who had solid SLs would often get buried first half of rookie year only to shine in second half. Gomes, Powe and Big Baby immediately come to mind.

[KGboss]

You can project a player but now you are back peddling. You and others saying Olynyk is a FINISHED product is not projecting anything. You are stopping the buck short before it even starts. The biggest word in PROJECTION, is PROJECT...thats what rookies are.

at no point did I say KO is a finished product. Read the text you quoted!

My point is that on the whole KO has had a disappointing rookie year so far. It has probably hurt his value.

Overall I think KO has the potential to be an excellent role player (circa brad miller or scola), but could also end up as a fringe rotation guy.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

I appologize it was humblebum who said it, not you.

Due to his lack of athleticism I think you're looking at what is close to a finished product. He can polish his game up a TON and perhaps get stronger/tougher but there isn't a star waiting to be born in Olynyk. If he can turn himself into a solid 3rd or 4th big on a contender it'd be a victory for him based on his essentially atrocious NBA athleticism

And all im saying is you like others are really undervaluing what he can be so early. He is a project, and you cant say what he will be as of today yet. It takes time to assess.

[Gomes3PC]

I've seen some encouraging things from KO over the last 10-15 games. He's rebounding better, he's shooting a bit better, and getting to the line more often. With some time, I can see him getting to be something like a 14 PPG, 9 RPG, 4 APG big on ~48-50% shooting. I don't think he'll ever be a ridiculously efficient scorer, but with his good/great passing (for a big), he doesn't have to be in order to be a big plus on offense.

Defensively he is much further away. He still gets his **** pushed in when down in the paint by any big worth a lick, so he's absolutely got to improve his overall strength and conditioning in the offseason.

[humblebum]

Some one needs to take Olynyk to acting classes. He has some sloppy feet defensively at times but if he can clean that up, get to the spot quicker, and take the charge he could be passable as a team defender (which is where his upside potential is defensively). We'll just have to see what he can do with Bryan Doo and the training staff to improve his physical ability.

He can be a positive player in a lot of systems because of his ability to think the game, space the floor and make decisions as a ball handler/passer. He does play with effort so I think he can absolutely fill a role on a winner.

[BfB]

The difference in his play this past week has all been confidence based. If he'd been playing like this all year everyone would be projecting much higher ceilings.

As always, I'll reserve judgement on his ceiling until he gets through year 3 - the correlation between year 1 and year 3 production is very poor. Year 3 to year 5 is much more accurate. The first two years are all about establishing opportunity for yourself. Very few players produce at career equivelemt level in their first two years. The age argument only holds up when divorced from situation. Very few upper classmen are drafted in the lottery anymore. Players develop over their first 3-5 years substantially when given the opportunity to play prominent roles. Most upperclassmen are drafted to play bit roles and never realize that opportunity.

You'd all be wise to study some case point examples in this instance and not over rely on general trends, as you believe them to exist. Go look back on the auspicious beginnings of David West and Aaron Afflalo.

[freddiebutch]

The difference in his play this past week has all been confidence based. If he'd been playing like this all year everyone would be projecting much higher ceilings.

Definitely agree. He hasn't been hesitating on his shot, and starting to sell the upfake a little bit more. I was very encouraged to see him drive hard to his left, and finish. Hopefully he can get the threeball down with more consistency.

His defense however, has been pretty terrible. Diaw was basically doing whatever he wanted when Kelly was guarding him. The rebounding is very encouraging though. Glad to see him put together a few solid games, heading into the break. Hopefully moves are made so that he can get more pt in the 2nd half, playing next to Sullinger.

[cloverleaf]

The difference in his play this past week has all been confidence based. If he'd been playing like this all year everyone would be projecting much higher ceilings.

Definitely agree. He hasn't been hesitating on his shot, and starting to sell the upfake a little bit more. I was very encouraged to see him drive hard to his left, and finish. Hopefully he can get the threeball down with more consistency.

His defense however, has been pretty terrible. Diaw was basically doing whatever he wanted when Kelly was guarding him. The rebounding is very encouraging though. Glad to see him put together a few solid games, heading into the break. Hopefully moves are made so that he can get more pt in the 2nd half, playing next to Sullinger.

Didn't see the game, but from what I've read, only 7 of Diaw's 18 points were on KO (5 in the first half and 2 in the second).

[freddiebutch]

The difference in his play this past week has all been confidence based. If he'd been playing like this all year everyone would be projecting much higher ceilings.

Definitely agree. He hasn't been hesitating on his shot, and starting to sell the upfake a little bit more. I was very encouraged to see him drive hard to his left, and finish. Hopefully he can get the threeball down with more consistency.

His defense however, has been pretty terrible. Diaw was basically doing whatever he wanted when Kelly was guarding him. The rebounding is very encouraging though. Glad to see him put together a few solid games, heading into the break. Hopefully moves are made so that he can get more pt in the 2nd half, playing next to Sullinger.

Didn't see the game, but from what I've read, only 7 of Diaw's 18 points were on KO (5 in the first half and 2 in the second).

I guess it just seemed that Diaw was able to get position down low and a few of those buckets came on offensive rebounds that he had no business getting. A couple of times it seemed like Olynyk failed to get good position or was just pushed around, when going for a rebound.

All in all I still think he played a solid game. And I think it is great that he can head into ASB riding on a couple of double doubles.

[pac213up]

Great to see him aggressive on the offensive side, hope he keeps that up. Defensively I continue to throw up in my mouth watching him. Only hope is he learns to anticipate better.

[Datruth345]

there was also a play, where Kelly was completely lost in the team defense, literally snapping his head around trying to find his man (Diaw). That possession luckily didn't turn into a shot attempt for Diaw or points for San Antonio

his defense needs lots of work, good thing he has a long time to figure it out!