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Olynyk's rookie season

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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#81 » by Smog » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:14 pm

pac213up wrote:Great to see him aggressive on the offensive side, hope he keeps that up. Defensively I continue to throw up in my mouth watching him. Only hope is he learns to anticipate better.


Olynyk' isn't quite as bad on defense as he looks, I don't think. He's clearly trying to learn to play D without fouling -- he had a tough time staying on the floor early in the season -- and so he's not contesting shots nearly as much or as aggressively as he did earlier in the year. It looks like they coached him up to just be tall underneath, throw his hands up and force guys to convert over his hands. He's doing that, but it doesn't look like terribly good defense and any big with enough lateral quickness or strength is either going around him or backing him down.

On the other hand, he seems to get his hands in passing lanes and cause strange turnovers at least a few times a game. He's got good anticipation and he's getting settled enough with his rotations that he's being more instinctive around the ball now. He's never going to be a good shot-blocker, but he'll get a few here and there, and a few steals. If he can just rotate a little faster, his team D will be fine.

I have a more optimistic view of his offense. I think Olynyk can be an 18-20 point scorer in the NBA. He's going to get a lot of garbage points just thanks to his size and his hands and the fact that he runs the floor pretty well. He's a very good free throw shooter. Add those two factors alone to more minutes and you've got a pretty good start. A seven-footer who shoots a decent percentage from deep, converts free throws and gets garbage points underneath is a high-efficiency player, someone who scores without a lot of attempts. If he can find a way to create his own offense just a little more -- the up-fake and drive left last night was a great example -- the coaches will certainly place more emphasis on getting him the ball, and his numbers will go way up.

I think we all agree that KO looked freaked out at the beginning of the year. He seemed really broken by the realization that he was at a strength and speed disadvantage every time he went out on the floor. But he's starting to get over that and work his way into being a productive player. We know from his college progression that he has a history of working hard to take his game up a notch. It's hard to imagine we won't see the same thing in the NBA.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#82 » by tlee324 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:23 pm

At least we're starting to see some string of production, rather than spots of it. He clearly has a skillset that will keep him on the floor most nights once the consistency comes through experience and repetition. But his strength and endurance is going to be a weakness for a while, and will have occasions where it'll be a liability.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#83 » by Gomes3PC » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:57 pm

Much as I scrutinize KO, he's 8th in PPG, 5th in FG%, 2nd in RPG, 5th in rebounds/48, 12th in APG, and 11th in blocks. I know this draft class is weak but KO is still one of the 8-10 best picks in this draft, along with MCW, Giannis, Oladipo, Hardaway Jr and Steven Adams.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#84 » by bucknersrevenge » Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:23 pm

tlee324 wrote:At least we're starting to see some string of production, rather than spots of it. He clearly has a skillset that will keep him on the floor most nights once the consistency comes through experience and repetition. But his strength and endurance is going to be a weakness for a while, and will have occasions where it'll be a liability.


And 1.

The game definitely needs to slow down for him, but the biggest transition for rookies is coming from a climate where basketball is your extra-curricular activity along with schoolwork to here where basketball is now your JOB. The hope here is that KO(and Sully now that his back is healthy) can take advantage of offseasons to work on not just their game but their body as well. Get stronger and get in better condition. I think 2 summers with a Bryan Doo program, and maybe personal trainers and even athletic trainers as well who specialize is improving basketball skills. In 2 years, I'd expect to see more of the kind of player we should really have. But there is clearly skillset to work with. KO just needs to show a bit more aggression. Someone needs to feed that kid some raw meat or something.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#85 » by sam_I_am » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:40 pm

KO led the team in points and rebounds with 15/10 and had a +\- of 0 in a game lost by 20. His defense was actually good last night.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#86 » by Slartibartfast » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:45 pm

freddiebutch wrote:
BfB wrote:The difference in his play this past week has all been confidence based. If he'd been playing like this all year everyone would be projecting much higher ceilings.


Definitely agree. He hasn't been hesitating on his shot, and starting to sell the upfake a little bit more. I was very encouraged to see him drive hard to his left, and finish. Hopefully he can get the threeball down with more consistency.

His defense however, has been pretty terrible. Diaw was basically doing whatever he wanted when Kelly was guarding him. The rebounding is very encouraging though. Glad to see him put together a few solid games, heading into the break. Hopefully moves are made so that he can get more pt in the 2nd half, playing next to Sullinger.


Diaw also made Bass look like a fool to open the game - he's an exceptionally dangerous player when he's in attack mode offensively. A shame he let his weight go (so little of the athleticism he used to have).
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#87 » by BfB » Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:34 pm

bucknersrevenge wrote:
tlee324 wrote:At least we're starting to see some string of production, rather than spots of it. He clearly has a skillset that will keep him on the floor most nights once the consistency comes through experience and repetition. But his strength and endurance is going to be a weakness for a while, and will have occasions where it'll be a liability.


And 1.

The game definitely needs to slow down for him, but the biggest transition for rookies is coming from a climate where basketball is your extra-curricular activity along with schoolwork to here where basketball is now your JOB. The hope here is that KO(and Sully now that his back is healthy) can take advantage of offseasons to work on not just their game but their body as well. Get stronger and get in better condition. I think 2 summers with a Bryan Doo program, and maybe personal trainers and even athletic trainers as well who specialize is improving basketball skills. In 2 years, I'd expect to see more of the kind of player we should really have. But there is clearly skillset to work with. KO just needs to show a bit more aggression. Someone needs to feed that kid some raw meat or something.


It's all about the dedication to the offseason program and who he's working with. Fortunately, he's working with my boy Robby Mac in LA - same guy that trains Durant and Love these days. He'll learn how to step it up and be the best he can be. He was a little soft during last year's presdraft prep. I think he'll step it up this year.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#88 » by Banks2Pierce » Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:45 pm

In his last 12 games, he's had a 20.3% Defensive Rebounding percentage. Sully's Defensive Rebounding % for this season is 20.4%. Those are about average numbers for a big. His offensive rebounding numbers put him at 37th in the league for players playing over 12 minutes a game and on par with Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis. I'm very encouraged by his rebounding improvement as that was one of my biggest fears for him coming out of Summer League. Could be helped out by the weak schedule as well.


Also of note is that Olynyk, Chris Johnson, and Bayless are the only players on the team to have a positive NetRtg(ORtg-DRtg) in that 12 game span.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#89 » by ryaningf » Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:53 pm

BfB wrote:It's all about the dedication to the offseason program and who he's working with. Fortunately, he's working with my boy Robby Mac in LA - same guy that trains Durant and Love these days. He'll learn how to step it up and be the best he can be. He was a little soft during last year's presdraft prep. I think he'll step it up this year.


Thanks for dropping that tidbit of info, BfB. Good to know that Kelly's going to be working with the best. Just increasing his athleticism, quickness, and stamina by 5-10% is going to do wonders for him in the paint. I hope he takes Sully with him too!
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#90 » by cloverleaf » Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:32 pm

Great news, BfB--thanks!
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#91 » by SichtingLives » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:30 pm

I was as critical of KO as anyone earlier in the season, and not without merit as he looked about as awkward as they come. Granted, I didn't see much of the summer league performances so I didn't have huge expectations either. But as I've been tongue-in-cheek referring to all year, "player development year", I've been watching Kelly intently all season, noting the positives and negatives. I've been impressed with his unique skillset all along but thought it an intricate puzzle because of the oddity of him growing into size so late and having such a mish-mash (is that a word? spellcheck says no) of skills for his size.

He's starting to merely show glimpses of what he can become offensively imo, and even at that it has been impressive when his confidence is up. I think average is the best he can hope to achieve as a defensive big....but his array of guardish abilities give an added advantage on both ends of the floor. I love his motor and how he's always moving, positioning and getting his nose into plays and seeking out loose balls....looks odd as a 7 footer but nonetheless, effective. For whatever he may lack in explosiveness and athleticism, he seems to regain in anticipation, awareness and reach.

His whole career, I believe, is going to hinge on how reliable of an outside shooter he is. His inside (offensive) game is going to continue to improve, as is his footwork and movement. He will never be a guy who is tapped off the bench for his defensive prowess. He manages to snag a good amount of rebounds despite having a largely unorthodox approach for his size.....all in all, I'm excited to watch the kid develop and think he has a really high ceiling in all capacities except defensive anchor.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#92 » by Wes-J » Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:09 am

Would have to agree with that assessment. He's going to be a valuable rotational guy, offering positional flexibility, hustle, and IQ.

I do think his shooting will catch up. He's such a student of the game and tireless worker, I can't help but think he's gonna get a LOT better.

Man if he could just do something with his body.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#93 » by shawn unkempt » Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:39 am

Pretty interesting bits of info in this article about Kelly. Didn't realize he had taken a year off in college just to work on his body.

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.s ... oveme.html
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#94 » by BfB » Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:06 am

SichtingLives wrote:I was as critical of KO as anyone earlier in the season, and not without merit as he looked about as awkward as they come. Granted, I didn't see much of the summer league performances so I didn't have huge expectations either. But as I've been tongue-in-cheek referring to all year, "player development year", I've been watching Kelly intently all season, noting the positives and negatives. I've been impressed with his unique skillset all along but thought it an intricate puzzle because of the oddity of him growing into size so late and having such a mish-mash (is that a word? spellcheck says no) of skills for his size.

He's starting to merely show glimpses of what he can become offensively imo, and even at that it has been impressive when his confidence is up. I think average is the best he can hope to achieve as a defensive big....but his array of guardish abilities give an added advantage on both ends of the floor. I love his motor and how he's always moving, positioning and getting his nose into plays and seeking out loose balls....looks odd as a 7 footer but nonetheless, effective. For whatever he may lack in explosiveness and athleticism, he seems to regain in anticipation, awareness and reach.

His whole career, I believe, is going to hinge on how reliable of an outside shooter he is. His inside (offensive) game is going to continue to improve, as is his footwork and movement. He will never be a guy who is tapped off the bench for his defensive prowess. He manages to snag a good amount of rebounds despite having a largely unorthodox approach for his size.....all in all, I'm excited to watch the kid develop and think he has a really high ceiling in all capacities except defensive anchor.


I won't profess to be the king of all scouting, but one of the biggest things to look for when evaluating a player who isn't producing results consistently is to gauge intent on particular moves, analyze the actual physical motion, and evaluate the degree of difficulty.

It's always easier to project a player's future when he comes out of the gates averaging 12/6, etc. They give you more "results" based games to evaluate. But, there are many more players who don't show you those results until years 3,4,5. Those are the years that most guys really gain their consistency and start to fine tune.

For Kelly, last night was a bit of both. He had three moves in particular that give me, as an evaluator, a tremendous amount of encouragement.

The first, was his side PnR with Bayless, where he mis-handled the catch, but was able to not only re-gather while in motion, but instantly did a series of body control re-adjustments to navigate around the primary and secondary defense to get the layup. That was a level of agility that is reserved primarily for SF or below - an amazing amount of control for a player that size.

The second was his initial up-fake and drive to his left hand. To go to his non-dominant hand and use a series of stop-and-start hesitations with his speed is indicitive of what is most important on drives. At his size and position(s) Kelly doesn't need great speed, but a reliable outside shot to press PF/C's to him. Then to get to the lane he can "snake" his way in with changes of speed - super impressive agility and great touch to finish the shot, again, with the left hand.

Final play was his and1 going right. It was the first time I saw him stick with a shot after contact instead of just flailing for the foul. Kelly's strength is his greatest weakness right now. I know his trainer isn't going to stand for that sh-t. But, his touch is so good - with BOTH hands - and he can re-adjust in motion so well. The stronger he gets the quicker he'll elevate into that feathery jumper and/or be able to change directions and/or rip-through contact.

I see a player who has far more raw talent than a Mehmet Okur or a Brad Miller. I don't need to hear cliches like "mean streak" - I know quite a bit about these guys. Kelly is competitive as hell. He just isn't as compulsive as most players are. He's learning via the environment he's in and the standard the player's around him set. He strives to keep up with his peers. Because of that, I think he'll reach his ceiling, if given the opportunity to do so - the LARGEST factor in player success.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#95 » by 24istheLAW » Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:26 am

The thing I love about Kelly is his ability to put the ball in the basket.

Guys like Bradley, Green, Bass, etc. can score the ball off catch and shoot, in spots on the court, through motions they've practiced tens of thousands of times and mechanics they've fine tuned. Its a skill they've acquired.

Olynyk flips the ball up and get it in. 5 feet away, 10 feet, with a gather, in one motion... its like he has a knack for finishing.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#96 » by Celtics_85 » Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:29 am

Great post BfB, and I thought KO showed a good improvement last night. Seems like he is starting to get comfortable the last few games, or he is starting to get just what role he has with this team. This off season is big for KO and Sully, as coming in fit next year and the return of Rondo will tell the future of this team and the way the future will be handled.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#97 » by Green89 » Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:30 am

ryaningf wrote:
BfB wrote:It's all about the dedication to the offseason program and who he's working with. Fortunately, he's working with my boy Robby Mac in LA - same guy that trains Durant and Love these days. He'll learn how to step it up and be the best he can be. He was a little soft during last year's presdraft prep. I think he'll step it up this year.


Thanks for dropping that tidbit of info, BfB. Good to know that Kelly's going to be working with the best. Just increasing his athleticism, quickness, and stamina by 5-10% is going to do wonders for him in the paint. I hope he takes Sully with him too!


Yes, I'm definitely looking forward to seeing KO's sophomore advancements next season. I'm liking what I'm seeing as of late, and hope he keeps using the rest of this throwaway season to hone his skills.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#98 » by celticfan42487 » Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:22 pm

Ideally you'd like to see your rookie have at least one solid niche in the NBA to hold his ground and develop from there.

Kelly hasn't been good enough in any areas to have a niche. But yeah he'll develop, and players can make significant advances from year one to year two.

This year though, he really just doesn't seem NBA material. At least Bradley always had the defense to fall back on when he was being mis played as a PG early in his career.

Kelly does seems like a smart kid who thinks his way through the basketball game. You have to think he'll at least grow into a rotational player in the future.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#99 » by jfs1000d » Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:40 pm

Good stuff here.

In the NBA, the hardest adjustment for many players is playing against elite length and athleticism. Sometimes, great college guards or euros just can't do it.

Olynyk has size, but lacks strength and athleticism. What he has to do is learn his athletic limitations. U see a lot of rookie look awful on some shots early in their career. Some of onlynk's moves at gonzaga won't work in the NBA.

So, he looks terrible on isolated plays. That, and the hair make him a target for abuse.

But, look at his size, his skill, his shooting touch and his ability to run the floor and finish. Once he is able to get to his spot and find his comfort level as an offensive player, he is going to be a good scorer.

He does things that can't be stopped, such as pick n pop and shooting 3s as a stretch 5. He is active on the offensive glass and I love his passing. He has good footwork in the post, just needs to get stronger to hold position.

I think he could be a 15 ppg, & 7 rpg guy going forwRd. Defense will need to make a huge leap to become average.
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Re: Olynyk's rookie season 

Post#100 » by bbd24 » Fri Feb 14, 2014 5:59 pm

I love how the kid is always around the loose balls. Whether he's in position or not, he's always going for the board, tipping the ball out, etc. He's active.

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