2001-2014 RAPM (Updated now to 1997-2014 RAPM)

[colts18]

I decided to compile the RAPM values for each season from 2001-2014 and come up with a stat that is RAPM above average. Basically its how many (RAPM) points a player was worth over the average player in that time period. Its RAPM times possessions. High possession guys with good RAPM's get rewarded over guys with really good RAPM's in lower minutes.

Highest points above average RAPM

Rank Name Points Above Avg
1 Tim Duncan 4112.4
2 LeBron James 3933.5
3 Dirk Nowitzki 3686.0
4 Kevin Garnett 3452.9
5 Kobe Bryant 3105.8
6 Dwyane Wade 2613.8
7 Steve Nash 2446.2
8 Manu Ginobili 2439.7
9 Shaquille O'Neal 2232.0
10 Jason Kidd 1903.7

1361 Troy Murphy -808.4
1362 J.J. Hickson -811.0
1363 Hakim Warrick -910.7
1364 DeShawn Stevenson -941.4
1365 Juwan Howard -952.8
1366 Drew Gooden -963.5

Highest offensive RAPM above average:
rank Name Offense above Avg
1 Kobe Bryant 3249.1
2 LeBron James 3228.8
3 Steve Nash 3003.5
4 Dirk Nowitzki 2860.8
5 Dwyane Wade 2459.0
6 Manu Ginobili 1822.1
7 Ray Allen 1788.7
8 Shaquille O'Neal 1691.3
9 Tim Duncan 1607.0
10 Baron Davis 1558.3

1362 Emeka Okafor -584.0
1363 Rasho Nesterovic -599.4
1364 John Salmons -601.5
1365 Kendrick Perkins -694.3
1366 Chris Kaman -775.1

Highest Defensive points above average RAPM:
rank Name Defense above Avg
1 Tim Duncan 2502.4
2 Kevin Garnett 2198.6
3 Ben Wallace 1437.3
4 Metta World Peace 1277.9
5 Andre Iguodala 1202.6
6 Shane Battier 1087.3
7 Jermaine O'Neal 1042.8
8 Luol Deng 1026.3
9 Jason Collins 1024.5
10 Dwight Howard 1001.4

1362 Michael Redd -845.5
1363 Carlos Boozer -852.1
1364 Jamal Crawford -956.9
1365 Jason Richardson -958.7
1366 Antawn Jamison -1244.7


Best RAPM per 100 possessions from 01-14:
rank Name Ovr/100
1 LeBron James 5.64
2 Tim Duncan 5.40
3 Manu Ginobili 5.07
4 Kevin Garnett 4.67
5 Dwyane Wade 4.58
6 Dirk Nowitzki 4.52
7 Shaquille O'Neal 4.44
8 Chris Paul 3.88
9 Kobe Bryant 3.59
10 Amir Johnson 3.55

1362 Tyshawn Taylor -4.91
1363 John Henson -4.93
1364 Earl Clark -4.94
1365 Tony Snell -5.20
1366 Josh Powell -5.51



Go to this link to see where every player from 2001-2014 ranked in these stats. You can also find a players offensive and defensive RAPM per 100 possessions and points above replacement level.

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm-above-avg

Here is the spreadsheet with the data if you want to download it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... XRkE#gid=0

[Reservoirdawgs]

Jamison was my favorite player growing up (big time UNC fan) but that score for highest defensive points above average RAPM .

Work has successfully fried my analytical side today so if I misunderstand some of the methodology I apologize, but a cursory glance looks about right. Obviously this hurts players like Durant, Harden, etc who weren't playing for many of the years chosen (since you're multiplying it by possessions), so I think it would be interesting to break it up into 3-5 years. I'm actually a little surprised to see Lebron so high on there since he wasn't playing for two of the seasons.

[colts18]

Jamison was my favorite player growing up (big time UNC fan) but that score for highest defensive points above average RAPM .

Work has successfully fried my analytical side today so if I misunderstand some of the methodology I apologize, but a cursory glance looks about right. Obviously this hurts players like Durant, Harden, etc who weren't playing for many of the years chosen (since you're multiplying it by possessions), so I think it would be interesting to break it up into 3-5 years. I'm actually a little surprised to see Lebron so high on there since he wasn't playing for two of the seasons.

LeBron has played quite a bit in that span. He is 13th in total possessions from 01-14 (Kobe is #1).

As far as Durant: Here are the worst 5 seasons from 2001-2014 in RAPM points above average. This will give your answer on why Durant is not ranked highly.

Code: Select all

Year   Player           RAPM    pts above avg
2008   Hakim Warrick   -7.1   -247.7
2011   J.J. Hickson   -5.7   -249.4
2008   Kevin Durant   -4.5   -251.2
2009   Kevin Durant   -4.6   -260.2
2009   John Salmons   -4.6   -291.6

[Reservoirdawgs]

LeBron has played quite a bit in that span. He is 13th in total possessions from 01-14 (Kobe is #1).

Sure, but my point is that in this timeframe there are two seasons worth of possessions that are null which hurts him, particularly since some of that time was when he was 18 and 19 (again, pointing to Durant, since he has so few possessions compared to people around since 2001 he looks worse than he really is). My only suggestion is that it would be interesting to see the players over 3 or so year periods as a way to counteract the period bias.

Great work though, it's interesting to see it over a 14.5 year period.

[Texas Chuck]

I think that Tim Duncan kid has a chance to make it in this league....

[rrravenred]

Nah, not enough athleticism. Not enough killah instinx either...

[RSCD3_]

Nah, not enough athleticism. Not enough killah instinx either...

Tim duncan doesnt have the requisite superstar intangibles to win a ring

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[RSCD3_]

I decided to compile the RAPM values for each season from 2001-2014 and come up with a stat that is RAPM above average. Basically its how many (RAPM) points a player was worth over the average player in that time period. Its RAPM times possessions. High possession guys with good RAPM's get rewarded over guys with really good RAPM's in lower minutes.

Highest points above average RAPM

Rank Name Points Above Avg
1 Tim Duncan 4112.4
2 LeBron James 3933.5
3 Dirk Nowitzki 3686.0
4 Kevin Garnett 3452.9
5 Kobe Bryant 3105.8
6 Dwyane Wade 2613.8
7 Steve Nash 2446.2
8 Manu Ginobili 2439.7
9 Shaquille O'Neal 2232.0
10 Jason Kidd 1903.7

1361 Troy Murphy -808.4
1362 J.J. Hickson -811.0
1363 Hakim Warrick -910.7
1364 DeShawn Stevenson -941.4
1365 Juwan Howard -952.8
1366 Drew Gooden -963.5

Highest offensive RAPM above average:
rank Name Offense above Avg
1 Kobe Bryant 3249.1
2 LeBron James 3228.8
3 Steve Nash 3003.5
4 Dirk Nowitzki 2860.8
5 Dwyane Wade 2459.0
6 Manu Ginobili 1822.1
7 Ray Allen 1788.7
8 Shaquille O'Neal 1691.3
9 Tim Duncan 1607.0
10 Baron Davis 1558.3

1362 Emeka Okafor -584.0
1363 Rasho Nesterovic -599.4
1364 John Salmons -601.5
1365 Kendrick Perkins -694.3
1366 Chris Kaman -775.1

Highest Defensive points above average RAPM:
rank Name Defense above Avg
1 Tim Duncan 2502.4
2 Kevin Garnett 2198.6
3 Ben Wallace 1437.3
4 Metta World Peace 1277.9
5 Andre Iguodala 1202.6
6 Shane Battier 1087.3
7 Jermaine O'Neal 1042.8
8 Luol Deng 1026.3
9 Jason Collins 1024.5
10 Dwight Howard 1001.4

1362 Michael Redd -845.5
1363 Carlos Boozer -852.1
1364 Jamal Crawford -956.9
1365 Jason Richardson -958.7
1366 Antawn Jamison -1244.7


Best RAPM per 100 possessions from 01-14:
rank Name Ovr/100
1 LeBron James 5.64
2 Tim Duncan 5.40
3 Manu Ginobili 5.07
4 Kevin Garnett 4.67
5 Dwyane Wade 4.58
6 Dirk Nowitzki 4.52
7 Shaquille O'Neal 4.44
8 Chris Paul 3.88
9 Kobe Bryant 3.59
10 Amir Johnson 3.55

1362 Tyshawn Taylor -4.91
1363 John Henson -4.93
1364 Earl Clark -4.94
1365 Tony Snell -5.20
1366 Josh Powell -5.51



Go to this link to see where every player from 2001-2014 ranked in these stats. You can also find a players offensive and defensive RAPM per 100 possessions and points above replacement level.

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm-above-avg

Here is the spreadsheet with the data if you want to download it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... XRkE#gid=0

Biggest suprises here and just my thoughts:

LeBron James is very good offensively

His cleveland team played with both the worst and fifth worst total player in this metric and the worst defender.

Baron Davis was underrated offensively

Kendrick perkins is on his best days a neutral impact offensively

Tim Duncan a more valuable defender than KG "let the debates begin!!!" :ugeek:

Jermaine o'neal was an elite defender once upon a time

Amir Johnson is a pretty versatile player who could help many teams



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[ardee]

I actually expected Nash to top the total offence chart but not complaining about Kobe being there

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[mojay641]

Kobe also has the best offensive RAPM in the 10-yr study: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

best offensive player of the 00's.

[Doctor MJ]

I decided to compile the RAPM values for each season from 2001-2014 and come up with a stat that is RAPM above average. Basically its how many (RAPM) points a player was worth over the average player in that time period. Its RAPM times possessions. High possession guys with good RAPM's get rewarded over guys with really good RAPM's in lower minutes.

Really like the idea.

Now, you're using above average rather than above replacement in this. Your APBRmetrics post says you have an above replacement version too. That's the version I'd be most interested to see, along with an explanation for how you determined replacement.

Also, can you elaborate on what specifics you're using. Is this yearly prior-informed numbers? Are you normalizing the data from year to year to adjust for variance caused by the idiosyncrasies of the RAPM process?

[lorak]

mysticbb,
does it make sense what he did, considering we shouldn't compare directly RAPM from different years (I mean, for example +4 in 2001 isn't the same as +4 in 2012)?

colts18,
could you explain how you did that? Use Durant as example and show step by step how you get his total value, please.

[Doctor MJ]

Kobe also has the best offensive RAPM in the 10-yr study: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

best offensive player of the 00's.

It's true that's what it says. Here are the yearly champs of that decade with this metric:

'02: Shaq
'03: Shaq
'04: Garnett
'05: Nash
'06: Kobe
'07: Nash
'08: Nash
'09: LeBron
'10: Wade
'11: Nash

[Doctor MJ]

1361 Troy Murphy -808.4
1362 J.J. Hickson -811.0
1363 Hakim Warrick -910.7
1364 DeShawn Stevenson -941.4
1365 Juwan Howard -952.8
1366 Drew Gooden -963.5

Really get a kick out of this list.

Drew Gooden is the Least Valuable Player of the +/- era, and also a player that certain segments wondered for quite a long time why he kept getting traded despite decent stats. Coaches who had him knew what was up, and coaches who hadn't had him yet lived in hope.

[lorak]

Kobe also has the best offensive RAPM in the 10-yr study: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

best offensive player of the 00's.

Does this study weight every year equally?
(BTW, KG is MUCH better defender and better overall player than Duncan according to that study)

[Doctor MJ]

Tim Duncan a more valuable defender than KG "let the debates begin!!!" :ugeek:

ftr, here are the yearly champs on the defensive side of things:

'01: Bradley
'02: Divac
'03: Ostertag
'04: Wallace
'05: Collins
'06: Battier
'07: Garnett
'08: Garnett
'09: Garnett
'10: Bogut
'11: Garnett

Similar to Kobe having the era edge over Nash, Duncan's edge over Garnett on defense for the era is based on consistency rather than prime stats.

[Doctor MJ]

Just downloaded and see you did above replacement to. Cool.

Here's a list I've been wanting to do:

Top 10 Best cumulative impact among non-all-stars/all-NBA (with overall rank next to them), using above replacement:

24. Shane Battier (so if we made an era all-star game of the 24 top performers, Battier would make it)
26. Lamar Odom
27. Andre Miller
35. Nene
37. Tayshaun Prince
38. Hedo Turkoglu
40. Josh Smith
46. Nick Collison
47. Derek Fisher
49. Bruce Bowen

Noteworthy stars ranking below that list (among those with solid longevity:
58. Yao Ming (obviously injury was a factor)
61. Steve Francis
67. Carmelo Anthony
69. Zach Randolph
79. Gilbert Arenas
92. Amare Stoudemire
103. Carlos Boozer
172. Stephon Marbury
363. Andrew Bynum
392. Antoine Walker

And guys just noteworthy:
542. Monta Ellis (seen as star-like despite never been all-star)
1283. Chris Kaman (negative value, and I believe the lowest ranked prime all-star of the era)
1366. Hakim Warrick (worst vs replacement of the era)

[mojay641]

Kobe also has the best offensive RAPM in the 10-yr study: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

best offensive player of the 00's.

It's true that's what it says. Here are the yearly champs of that decade with this metric:

'02: Shaq
'03: Shaq
'04: Garnett
'05: Nash
'06: Kobe
'07: Nash
'08: Nash
'09: LeBron
'10: Wade
'11: Nash

oh snap. kobe far, far better than anybody in 06. GOAT level season offensively.

[Doctor MJ]

Kobe also has the best offensive RAPM in the 10-yr study: https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/10-year-rapm

best offensive player of the 00's.

Does this study weight every year equally?
(BTW, KG is MUCH better defender and better overall player than Duncan according to that study)

The study he quotes uses the whole 10 years as one data set. The multi-year approach is superior to the separate year approach if you can assume the players were the same the whole time. Note though the separate year approach here still uses priors, so there is a little of that same issue with it.

[lorak]

Why multiyear approach is superior, Doc? Because of bigger dataset? Didn't mysticbb said it doeasn't matter in RAPM if 25% (or so) season is played?