Assist Quality, the hidden perspective, Lin and Rockets

[sutton]

------------can't post image as new user, someone help me out

Assist Quality, the hidden perspective, Lin and Rockets

2012 SportVU released an article on “Potential Assist Locations”, which shows Lin’s potential assists contain 36% at rim opportunities, the most among PG.






As you can see from the diagram, such passes make big difference for shots at rim, not so much for long 2 and 3. However we knew that most 3pt shots were only taking when you have a open look.

Back then, there is no statistics publicly available for further quantitative analysis. Until this season NBA.com introduces SportVU passing tracking statistics.

2013-2014 season until ASB, among 100 most assisters, the median Assist Efficiency (AE) is 1.20.

Assist Efficiency (AE) = [Point created by assist per game] / [Assist Opportunities per game] (AO)

Assist Opportunity means passes result in shots, result in shooting foul not included.

Lin’s AE = 10.9/7.9 = 1.38, is 3rd among league, 1st among PGs, only 5 PGs ranked among TOP25 AE. ( Parson 1.28 Harden 1.17 Beverley 1.17)

No doubt Lin has high AE because of close to rim passes, which comes at a price: turnovers, was it worth the effort?

If we adjust Lin’s AE to 1.20, then

10.9/1.20 – 7.9 = 1.18 possessions saved (this value is 3rd among league)

In other words, Lin’s AE at 1.38 plus 1.18 TOs equals to AE at 1.20 （7.9+1.18). Call it AE compensation 1(AE_C1)

Then Lin’s AST/TO ratio is 4.5/(2.7-1.18), which is close to 3:1 with AE at 1.20, very decent.

However, for a player like Harden, many of his TOs come from aggressive scoring (euro step, ISO etc.), which reflects on FT shooting.

Harden makes 8.8 free throws per game at 85%, if we convert it to 56% TS, then

FT*FT%/0.56*2-FT/2 = 2.27 possessions

In other words, if Harden shots 8.8 free throws while TO 2.27 times, net result is decent 56% TS. Call it AE compensation 2 (AE_C2)

Combine AE_C1 and AE_C2, the highest among league are:

1st Durant AE_C1+C2 = 3.35, 2nd LBJ=2.45

3rd LIN=1.18+0.89=2.07, Harden at 4th = -0.3+2.27=1.97

Surprisingly, Lin's compensation value at 3rd despite far low usage rate, it shows Lin has rare combination of both aggressive assist and aggressive scoring. This might be added to the explanations why Lin could pull off wins despite 6 TOs per game during his Linsanity run.

Using C1,C2 to adjust AST/TO ratio,

For Lin, 4.5/(2.7-2.27)= 7.1, which is 3rd among PGs, only Chris Paul 12.98, Marshall 9.81 are higher.



Rondo’s stats is at small sample size this season, he was much better, however about one third of his assist always comes from long 2, probably the most among PG. This doesn't mean that he can’t adjust to Huston’s offense scheme. But it will come at a price.

Because current advance player rating formula such as PER has no reflection on passing efficiency, one can argue player has “high risk high reward” passing style like Lin and parson among others are undervalued, by 1.18 and 0.45 (AE_C1) respectively.

[Lorenzomax7]

"High risk high reward"

It doesn't matter how good Lin is. It matters what the Rockets need. Basically they just need their PGs to facilitate. Being a facilitator doesn't necessarily mean they would jack up assists. They just need to do some hockey passes or save the energy of their stars to let them go 1-on-1.

The Rockets also play a unique system in this league. They move the rock more quickly and dump it to the post more frequently. Their PGs just don't hold the ball as much as the other guys. Here are some homework I did for The TOP 40 PGs (based on the first 3 months of this season):

%TIPoss = 100% * Time of Possession per minute

[zapatasblood]

I am sure their is a thread like this or where this could be place

[Tim Horton]

most dissected player ever.

and he's a backup... lol

[seanjoh]

I don't understand. If Lin's contract is hard to trade, doesn't it lose more leverage either not use him or not pat his number? Morey allows both happening. I am so confused. On the basketball perspective, number is proved that this team has higher win % when Lin plays more mins than PB. Moreover, PB is a steal even if you don't play him. Totally nonsense for me one way or another.

[victorhe]

This is nothing new. Morey and Mchale just do not trust or want to play Lin. Lin is not part of the Rox game plan. Back when Lin scored back to back 30 + points, he would still get benched for long period of time in the next following games. So it does not matter if Lin performs well or he under-performs, he would still be underutilized. I don't know who else can do a better job to discourage a player, maybe that's why Lin plays like he does not care anymore. It just does not make sense to pay Lin such great amount of money and let him be rotten on the bench. Best scenario for the Rox and Lin would be Lin goes to another team, and the Rox can free up a little cap room by trading away Lin.

[Lorenzomax7]

Lin wouldn't able to be traded. He gets stuck by his pay checks ironically. Everything had changed after Harden came here. Lin's unique talent is meant to be (kinda) wasted here in H-town. But we just have got to learn to move on.

[NYK 455]

most dissected player ever.

and he's a backup... lol

He's dissected at this level because he's both one of the most popular players in the league and probably the most misused and underutilized player in the league.

[ChokeFasncists]

Very interesting article about the Knicks regretting the decision:

What Might Have Been

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/68340714/new-york-knicks-raymond-felton-jeremy-lin-regret

Tidbits:

That decision looked terrible at the time. And it looks so much worse now, with Lin continuing to develop and contribute for a Houston Rockets team in the title hunt in the Western Conference, and struggling Felton now facing felony gun charges that could short-circuit a season in which he'd been just awful.




But Knicks fans experienced, back in 2012, Linsanity. You might have heard about it. And I know I can't be the only one who thought Linsanity was the most fun the New York Knicks have been in my lifetime. I was born after the Willis Reed/Walt Frazier years. But Linsanity, in terms of the basketball being played by the Knicks, was more enjoyable to watch than anything that took place last year, during the Knicks' 54-win campaign, and obviously edged the Patrick Ewing Knicks as well.

Part of it was seeing Lin score, distributing like no point guard the Knicks have had in decades as an utter surprise off the bench. Long-dormant Knicks fans watched the team regularly. People I know who don't even like basketball were transfixed by Jeremy Lin. Those people didn't watch the Knicks last year, and they sure as hell aren't watching them now.

And to the diehards, Linsanity was enormously exciting for a simple reason: The Knicks had Jeremy Lin's future inextricably linked with their future. We'd get to see this guy for years to come.

It's as if Knicks fans got to see that Nolan Ryan breakout season with the Angels -- and then saw Lin exiled by the team. It's as if the Knicks traded a whole era away, just by letting Jeremy Lin go.




This instantly turned Lin into someone who needed to play off the ball far more than playing with it, neutralizing the best skills that made him an instant star and forcing him to find others. To his credit, he's done this, improving his three-point shot, with his overall true shooting percentage rising each season. He's shooting better from two, from three and from the line than he did for the Knicks, and he's doing it while essentially playing a different game.

Still, when he's called upon to do that Linsanity thing -- usually when Harden is out due to injury -- he does it, whether against the Sixers in November 2013, or the Spurs in December 2012.

It may well be that we never get to see Jeremy Lin as he was in 2012 again. But there are plenty of teams, the Knicks reportedly included, who see what Lin actually is these days: an improved shooter from his breakout moment playing out of position at the moment.

An interesting comment from the article:

To let Jeremy Lin leave NYC to appease MElo was a wrong decision by a dumb owner. How a billionaire owner can let a talent agency CAA run his team to the ground is unbelievable! But that explains why CAA fellow clients JR Smith, Chris Smith, Coach Mike Woodson get favorable treatment despite their sheer poor performance and good guy like Lin gets the shaft of no contract offer to stay. Knicks fans suffer at the hands of an idiot.

And a link follows that:

Carmelo Anthony's way

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8509424/new-york-knicks-star-carmelo-anthony-master-getting-way-espn-magazine

At the beginning of last season, this was Anthony's team: a slow, listless, losing and, yes, much-criticized unit, with a clogged-artery offense that featured weak point-guard play and a generally sour air. It's telling that Lin's breakout moment -- 25 points in a win over the Nets on Feb. 4 -- came when Anthony went 3-for-15. Two nights later, Anthony suffered a groin injury, and the Knicks' season changed. With Anthony out and Lin all over the court running a far better representation of Mike D'Antoni's freewheeling offense, the Knicks won seven of eight. Teammates played with the passion of high schoolers. On the night Lin scored 38 to ignite an upset of the Lakers in Madison Square Garden, Spike Lee said it was the loudest he'd ever heard the old building. Chants of "M-V-P" rang out when Lin stepped to the foul line in the fourth quarter. The Garden was suddenly the place to be -- rollicking, euphoric and containing an emotion many Knicks fans might have forgotten existed: pure, uncut happiness.

Then Anthony returned in mid-February, to a team vastly different from the one he had left. "Carmelo's dream was to go to New York and be the man," says a source close to several Knicks players. "That's why he fought to get out of Denver, and all of a sudden this little guy nobody's ever heard of is living his dream."

The change was immediate. Anthony was accustomed to the ball running through him on the wing, and the offense went back to its old plodding self. The Knicks lost eight of 10 after his return, including six straight. At one point, Anthony refused to enter D'Antoni's huddle -- a move he defended by saying that going solo was nothing new for him -- and turned the coach's offense, the five-man improv, into discord. On March 13, Howard Beck of The New York Times wrote, "The Knicks are not a unified team. On one side is Anthony. On the other is everyone else." It wasn't personal between Anthony and Lin -- each professes to like the other -- but Carmelo simply went back to the way he felt things ought to be. He is a phenomenal offensive player, but there's no denying reality: Linsanity died out on that wing.

During this stretch -- of Melo vs. the Knicks -- one player was asked why the team had returned to isolation plays for Anthony after D'Antoni's up-tempo, less structured game had been so successful. A source who was privy to the conversation said the player responded by saying that the coach wasn't calling those plays; Anthony was isolating himself and demanding the ball.

D'Antoni's conflict-averse style allowed the situation to fester. Teammates prodded Anthony to give more effort in practice. "Jeremy is a tough guy," says a source close to the team. "He told Carmelo under no uncertain terms, 'I'm not going to give you the ball unless you create space and run the plays.' None of the other guys had a problem with it. Tyson [Chandler] didn't, Amar'e didn't. They knew they had a better chance with the ball in Lin's hands in the last few minutes."

That didn't fit Anthony's worldview.



"Lin was getting what Carmelo was promised," says a source close to the team. "And Carmelo thought D'Antoni was going to favor Jeremy, so he had to get D'Antoni out of there.




Anthony raised some eyebrows at the Knicks' media day when he said, "I'm done trying to score 30, 35, 40 points for us to win a basketball game. I don't want that role anymore." He lost 12 pounds this summer while working out and playing for the Olympic team. In the London Games, Anthony thrived as a spot-up shooter who destroyed collapsing defenses. On a team of superstars, he was a complementary player, a reliable offensive threat who came off the bench and never complained.

"He's not an alpha dog. He might think he is, but he's not," says a source close to the Knicks. "He needs to be around someone who is feared, someone who could tell him what to do. He just couldn't see Jeremy Lin that way. He could see Kobe and LeBron that way in the Olympics, sure, but not Jeremy Lin. Carmelo's whole thing is perception."

Sigh......not easy......

[willywazza]

Lin = forever unappreciated.

[texasholdem]

Good for Lin standing up to Melo in practice. Why can't he do that to Harden? Or maybe he has and McHale/Morey sided with James.

[baki]

Good for Lin standing up to Melo in practice. Why can't he do that to Harden? Or maybe he has and McHale/Morey sided with James.

The NBA is a difficult business to be in, someone significant has to have your back to have any value as a player and member of a team.

I think Lin's problem is trust issues on the team and during play. When players start to go their own way in developing the offense and delegating roles (ie. defense) to the rest of the team it's easy to see how once key players have become marginalized and frozen out.

[ChokeFasncists]

Soooo glad he has regained his health!


Interesting he's drawing up late game plays again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZMBeEMBz30


Interesting stats from college:

http://tshq.co/2012/02/a-knicks-fan-dissects-jeremy-lin-to-the-core/

In the case of Jeremy Lin, we have to look at a few key areas of his college game that have been proven to pan out at the NBA level time and time again. One of them is a fairly simple stat, but one that you do not hear any of the big time analysts talk about coming out of college, and that is 2 point FG%. The second is a very advanced stat that is a well-kept secret even within the advanced basketball metrics community, and that is a stat that the great Ed Weiland invented called RSB40. That stat is simply put rebounds, steals, and blocks per 40 minutes (there are multiplicative factors involved to help guards out, steals are given more weight for instance, but the nitty-gritty of RSB40 is not important, only the results of the analysis). Jeremy Lin put up a sick .598 2 point FG% and 9.7 RSB40. To put this stat in perspective, here is the complete list of the point guards who have come out of college over the past 15 years who managed at least a .540 2 point FG% and 9.0 on RSB40 (note, levels that Lin exceeds without much difficulty).

Andre Miller

Penny Hardaway

Steve Francis

Gary Payton

Allen Iverson

Jason Kidd

Rajon Rondo

Greg Grant

Bobby Dixon

George Hill

Jeremy Lin