2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt II

[runlikehell]

I still don't see how simply a better team record would swing this award towards Lebron, unless the difference is something like 5+ more wins. It simply would be ignoring the circumstances that Miami plays in a way weaker conference ( no need to point out Miami vs. West record ppl) and impact of Westbrook injury on OKC. If voters are willing to ignore that then I don't think they deserve to vote. If Lebron's # were vastly superior and his team record was better than Durant's, I could kind of see how Westbrook narrative could be played down. It is not the case though.

I'll bring it up anyways: Miami is 42-9 against the west this season and last season combined, including 17-4 this season. Miami dominates the west. Most of their losses are against bad teams.

The Westbrook narrative? OKC is 0-3 since he came back and a lot of people are blaming him for it. Westbrook being out HELPED Durant get the lead in the mvp race, in the sense that he wouldn't put up the numbers he did with Westbrook playing. He comes back and they're losing games, how does that help the narrative that Durant carried the Thunder without him when they're playing worse with him? If Westbrook came back and they were dominating their opponents it would be different but that's not the case.

And I love how at first, people were saying that there was no way Lebron could win it if the Thunder had a better record and now that it looks like the Heat could finish with a better record, all of a sudden we need to finish with 5 more wins? lol !

I do still have Durant leading the race but with the Heat trending up and the Thunder trending down lately, that could change anyday.

I said I dont need the numbers since the point stands that they play West teams twice a year and crap teams that make up majority of East conference 4 times. No way I'll ignore that factor.

I remember Heat fans laughing at the sample size when someone mentioned Heat are 2-0 without Lebron, but here you are waving OKC 0-3 record since Westbrook came back as it is actually relevant. Thunder were 21-4 with him before he went down again; he helps, not hurts the team. To suggest otherwise is just plain silly. A huge usage player comes back after weeks of absence and you think it won't affect the chemistry of a team that learned to play without him? Plz

So Westbrook's absence helped Durant's numbers? It sure did but he put up the numbers while at the same time leading his team to the best record in the league. Many monster and clutch performances during that stretch.Winning part is what mostly comprises Westbrook narrative.

Again, point stands. If Heat finish with a worst record than OKC, when you include Westbrook absence and West-East thing, Lebron won't win the MVP. Simple as that. IMO, even if he had better numbers he would still finish second to Durant if that happened.
5 game lead is just my own estimate, no need to generalize and pretend like it's the new trending thing to justify Miami's better record.

But you'll ignore the Heats record against the west huh? Wheres the evidence to suggest the Heat would play worse if they had more games against the west? If the Heats record says anything, its that they'd have a better record playing more against the west since they tend to coast against bad teams and most of the bad teams are in the east.

What does the Heat being 2-0 without Lebron have to do with anything? Its not like I brought up the Thunder being 1-0 without Durant. I'm talking about how people were quick to remind everyone that Durant was doing what he was doing in January without Westbrook, which was fair since having the best record without your second best player is obviously impressive. But Durant would not have come close to the numbers he put up if Westbrook was in the lineup. I mean, the huge gap that everyone said Durant had was made around the time he had the 50 point game and all the 40 point games. The gap was more about the numbers Durant was putting up than it was the record they had. Westbrook being out was the best thing that could have happened to Durant, but now Westbrook comes back and while Durants numbers are still impressive, his PER is like 5 points lower since Westbrook came back compared to when he was out and the thunder are 0-3 in those games, so the narrative that Durant was carrying the Thunder without Westbrook isn't that valid anymore since him being out was what helped him in the MVP race. I'm not saying they're a worse team with him (although he's taken some stupid 4th quarter shots), I'm just saying Westbrook being out was what led to Durant leading the MVP race.

And the Heat don't have a worse record anymore and its not like the Heat have been healthy all season, we had starters missing games left and right which messed with the team chemistry.

I'm sure in your mind its still not close but the latest nba.com ladder speaks for itself. A lot of people have changed their mind.

[SideshowBob]

I'll also note in general that not only is Durant way ahead of LeBron this year by every box score metric imaginable, all serious regression data says the same thing. That's not the sort of thing voters will understand, but as analysts its clear that Durant basically has the edge everywhere you can possibly look.

I just want to point out that this isn't true. The MOV regression data leans towards James (I don't see the utility of NPI RAPM with a 55 game sample). Box-score regression leans in Durant's favor (J.E.'s SPM incorporates some more variables than the traditional stuff). Only two hybrids, one prefers Durant, and the other has them even (though mystic posted his numbers prior to James getting this tear going).

+/- Regression

TP NPI RAPM: Durant +4.7, James +0.8

TP PI RAPM: Durant +4.9, James +5.9

J.E. Vanilla RAPM: Durant +3.9, James +5.6

Box-Score Regression/SPM

J.E. SPM: Durant +3.6, James +5.1

DSMok1 ASPM: Durant +8.1, James +7.5

EvanZ ezPM: Durant +12.1, James +9.5

Hybrid

TP IPV: Durant +7.2, James +4.4

mysticbb: Durant +6, James +6

[NyKnicks1714]

4-5 good games?!

"Per Elias Sports, he is the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2003 to put together a calendar month (a minimum of five games) averaging 30 or more points and eight or more rebounds while shooting better than 57 percent.

Toss in LeBron's seven assists a game this month and only Wilt Chamberlain, in February of 1966, has had a run like that"

Yeah, 4-5 good games! LOL!

57%? Such an arbitrary number

Is it though? What makes 57 a more arbitrary number than 55 or 50? Rounding down to the nearest whole number makes the most sense.

[Shv3d]

4-5 good games?!

"Per Elias Sports, he is the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2003 to put together a calendar month (a minimum of five games) averaging 30 or more points and eight or more rebounds while shooting better than 57 percent.

Toss in LeBron's seven assists a game this month and only Wilt Chamberlain, in February of 1966, has had a run like that"

Yeah, 4-5 good games! LOL!

57%? Such an arbitrary number

All statistical cutoff points are arbitrary.

[Mikey111690]

As I've said before, your guys opinion on the MVP is meaningless. It's the opinion of the media that matters and they clearly view this as a very tight race now with possibly LeBron leading. This is a matter of what have you done for me lately and the Heat are 9-1 in February with LeBron having a monster month. This is also coupled with the Heat destroying the Thunder and LeBron getting the better of Durant on national TV. Not to mention the fact that the Thunder have lost 3 straight.

[James Rustles]

As I've said before, your guys opinion on the MVP is meaningless. It's the opinion of the media that matters and they clearly view this as a very tight race now with possibly LeBron leading. This is a matter of what have you done for me lately and the Heat are 9-1 in February with LeBron having a monster month. This is also coupled with the Heat destroying the Thunder and LeBron getting the better of Durant on national TV. Not to mention the fact that the Thunder have lost 3 straight.

So what you're saying is, the media needs to vote on the MVP race halfway through the season and then do another vote at the end of the season and add the two up to remove end of season performance bias?

That's an interesting concept. The media is far too inconsistent with their voting criteria (from season to season) for my taste. I'd prefer they let coaches/players vote on the award as opposed to those in the company of Skip Bayless and Stephen A Smith.

[aol4532]

The Heat record against the West last season is irrelevant this season. As far as their record this year, so far, they've played the Clippers without Chris Paul, they played the Thunder without Westbrook once and when he was just coming back from injury. They haven't played the Spurs and Rockets yet I don't think. I haven't checked the schedule, but is it possible that they don't even play the top West teams two times?

The bottom line is that you can't tell me that having to play the Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, Blazers 4 times is not going to make a difference over playing the Bucks, Sixers, Magic, and Bobcats 4 times.

[ThePersianFreak]

The Heat record against the West last season is irrelevant this season. As far as their record this year, so far, they've played the Clippers without Chris Paul, they played the Thunder without Westbrook once and when he was just coming back from injury. They haven't played the Spurs and Rockets yet I don't think. I haven't checked the schedule, but is it possible that they don't even play the top West teams two times?

The bottom line is that you can't tell me that having to play the Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, Blazers 4 times is not going to make a difference over playing the Bucks, Sixers, Magic, and Bobcats 4 times.

They beat the Spurs (it was a blow out by the way).
And the Heat record against the West (past 3 seasons) shows that they play the west teams better.

[aol4532]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

[ThePersianFreak]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

LoL! i don't know why i even bothered

[washderice]

...since the big 3 got together the miami heat are 83-26 against the west. the heat do very very well against the west. this guy should just stop the argument...sometimes people can just be blatantly wrong, and this is one of those times.

[mademan]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

There is a substantial sample size (over the past 3+ seasons) showing the Heat doing better against the West than the East. There really is no point debating it...there is a very good argument that the Heat would have had a better recotd the last 3 years if they were in the West. All the numbers support it...

[aol4532]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

There is a substantial sample size (over the past 3+ seasons) showing the Heat doing better against the West than the East. There really is no point debating it...there is a very good argument that the Heat would have had a better recotd the last 3 years if they were in the West. All the numbers support it...

By this logic, the Thunder(or any random team that had a better record againt the West than East in that same period) would have done worse if they had been in the East the last few years?

[ThePersianFreak]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

There is a substantial sample size (over the past 3+ seasons) showing the Heat doing better against the West than the East. There really is no point debating it...there is a very good argument that the Heat would have had a better recotd the last 3 years if they were in the West. All the numbers support it...

By this logic, the Thunder(or any random team that had a better record againt the West than East in that same period) would have done worse if they had been in the East the last few years?

Yes, if they had a better record against West than East (3 seasons in a row), it shows that they probably would've done worse if they had been in the East.

[mademan]

Last year is irrelevant, teams change and players get older every year. They lost 4 points to a Clippers team without Chris Paul, now that they add Granger, you don't know how they'll do.

Anyway, so far, the Heat's record against the West top teams has been muddled with injuries in their favor. Assuming that they played in the West and had to play the top teams on a regular basis, they would not get that luxury.

There is a substantial sample size (over the past 3+ seasons) showing the Heat doing better against the West than the East. There really is no point debating it...there is a very good argument that the Heat would have had a better recotd the last 3 years if they were in the West. All the numbers support it...

By this logic, the Thunder(or any random team that had a better record againt the West than East in that same period) would have done worse if they had been in the East the last few years?

Perhaps. Whether it's because the Heat take worse teams lightly or if it's because teams in the East matchup better with, there is no denying the fact that Miami plays better against the West. There literally is no argument against that. Maybe OKC would do worse in the East, maybe they wouldn't, that's irrelevant. Miami plays better against the West, that's a statistical fact. Durant playing in the West is not an argument that plays in his favour.

[NaturalThunder]

Huge game from Durant. Had a TERRIBLE first half in scoring just 7 points on 2/9 shooting. Finished the game with 37 points on 12/24 shooting.

[ThePersianFreak]

Durant had a game tonight. he was great in the second half. and he took over in the forth (2 big buckets at the end of the game).
37/6/5 on 12/24.
Let see what LeBron does against the Magic.

[aol4532]

Let's look at this argument in another way, the Spurs have a better record on the road than at home(the difference is small because the home vs road factor is much stronger than the difference than West vs East. The fact that they have such a record though, is truly remarkable, In fact, it's easily a historical record), now let's say you adjust it a bit and give them an even better record on the road, in other words, make the home vs road factor "on average" equal to the difference between West and East on average, what you're saying is then if the Spurs had a choice, then they would prefer to play every series on the road.

[James Rustles]

Durant had a game tonight. he was great in the second half. and he took over in the forth (2 big buckets at the end of the game).
37/6/5 on 12/24.
Let see what LeBron does against the Magic.

Nothing really out of the ordinary considering what Durant has been doing this season. I was most impressed by his defense. Went from guarding Conley, to Prince, to Gasol, to whoever and did a good job on pretty much everybody. Now lets see if the media makes a huge deal about him guarding 1-5 like they would have if it was LeBron.

[Gwynplaine]

I thought it was a rather mediocre game.. Grizzlies never had a chance after the first half.. In-fact if the OKC scrubs hadn't blown it, the starters would've never gotten in. It was just points to keep the Grizzlies at bay after the scrubs blew it.