2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt III

[Joao Saraiva]

if OKC wins west and MIA fails to win east, it's KD for sure.

Not true. If the Heat are #2 in the East but with a better record then OKC, then it's LeBron.

[Joao Saraiva]

The one whose team wouldn't have the exact same seed without him for the whole season.

Yes LeBron doesn't really impact the game until he averages 45-20-20. I guess if LeBron misses an entire season Battier will have a 30 PER and a 65%ts on almost 30 PPG.

[therealbig3]

I'd actually say that the Heat without LeBron, especially with Wade's injuries, may not have made the playoffs in the East this year. Sorry, but the dropoff would be massive, they're just not that good outside of LeBron. Wade is constantly injured and can't carry a team anymore, and Bosh is pretty inconsistent.

As for the MVP race, I agree, KD has a slight edge right now, but LeBron almost singlehandedly erased a pretty good lead by Durant with that one game last night.

[infinite11285]

As of today, Durant is ahead in PER by 0.07. Miami and OKC's records are a push right now.

As of right now, that's the hair that gives Durant the nod.

Because PER is the perfect stat

Never said it was. I only used it as a metaphor to describe how close the race was.

[MisterHibachi]

The argument about seeding makes no sense because Miami has a better record than OKC.

[ExcellentHabits]

As of today, Durant is ahead in PER by 0.07. Miami and OKC's records are a push right now.

As of right now, that's the hair that gives Durant the nod.

Really doubt MVP voters except maybe Hollinger would pick an MVP over another because of PER ratings.

KD will probably win it at the end of the season just because of voters fatigue. They had no reason to give the MVP to anyone other than Lebron last season even though that one idiot who voted for Melo tried to justify it.

[aboogie]

Bron

[Keller61]

As of today, Durant is ahead in PER by 0.07. Miami and OKC's records are a push right now.

As of right now, that's the hair that gives Durant the nod.

Because PER is the perfect stat

Never said it was. I only used it as a metaphor to describe how close the race was.

Oh, ok. That makes sense.

[WD]

KD...right now/today

[RaptorNews]

OKC plays in a much tougher conference but Lebron is significantly more efficient.

Id give it to KD today but probably Lebron by the seasons end.

[SlowPaced]

KD. But LeBron is closing the gap, might take him down in the next couple of weeks.

[xBulletproof]

Lebron is my favorite player to watch maybe in my lifetime, but its got to be Durant at this point.

It'll be fun to see how Durant responds to Lebron clearly making the decision (ha, see what I did there) to come after this MVP.

[HotRocks34]

Also, NBA.com uses something called PIE rather than PER. The higher the number, the better. Durant's is 20.9% for the year. For February, it was 19.2. In January it was 23.9. Which is to say, Durant regressed considerably in February from both January and his season average in PIE.

snip

LeBron PIE for the year = 20.4%. In January it was 17.2. In February, it was 22.0.

snip

Durant Jan > LeBron Jan
LeBron Feb > Durant Feb

This is definitely true. But by your stats we also have

Durant Jan > Lebron Feb
Durant Feb > Lebron Jan
Durant season > Lebron season

PER and WS/48 agree.

Add in the fact that Durant carried the team without Westbrook and I don't see how Lebron could get the award if the season ended today. He doesn't have a single argument.

Of course that could change in the next 25 games.

I would suggest you read the entry I put up in the first page of the new MVP thread if you think LeBron has no arguments.

Here's the summary:

In 2007-08, Chris Paul finished one game behind Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant won the MVP. Here were the advantages Paul had over Kobe in PER and WS/48:

About 4.0 in PER
About 0.075 in WS/48

Both were far beyond what Durant's current advantages over LeBron are.

There's a misconception going on now, that the "best stats" or "best season" wins MVP all the time. It doesn't. Records matter. Narratives matter. Anyone who doesn't understand that might not understand the history of the award.

Barkley was on ESPN radio this morning and said that the guy with the best record will win the award. This is my own feeling.

Since the Heat wiped out OKC in OKC, things have tilted towards LeBron. The Heat are on a tear, OKC has been struggling. No matter how much people yell "DURANT IN JANUARY," it's not January anymore. The story is moving on. The Heat are 11-1 in their last 12. LeBron just scored 61.

There's plenty of time left, but if the award were voted on today, I feel LeBron wins. The short-term narrative matters.

[MisterHibachi]

I believe all these guys have votes.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/440902959891611648[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Chris_Broussard/status/440898337399926785[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/IzzyESPN/status/440872065152090113[/tweet]

[Mich3006]

Good to know that the whole regular season counts...
King James will make it and it'll be well deserved - way better than KD imo!!

[rcontador]

This is definitely true. But by your stats we also have

Durant Jan > Lebron Feb
Durant Feb > Lebron Jan
Durant season > Lebron season

PER and WS/48 agree.

Add in the fact that Durant carried the team without Westbrook and I don't see how Lebron could get the award if the season ended today. He doesn't have a single argument.

Of course that could change in the next 25 games.

I would suggest you read the entry I put up in the first page of the new MVP thread if you think LeBron has no arguments.

Here's the summary:

In 2007-08, Chris Paul finished one game behind Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant won the MVP. Here were the advantages Paul had over Kobe in PER and WS/48:

About 4.0 in PER
About 0.075 in WS/48

Both were far beyond what Durant's current advantages over LeBron are.

There's a misconception going on now, that the "best stats" or "best season" wins MVP all the time. It doesn't. Records matter. Narratives matter. Anyone who doesn't understand that might not understand the history of the award.

Durant is equal or better in every composite stat, far better by on/off stats, has an identical record with a dramatically stronger strength of schedule (+ weaker and more injured supporting cast), and swept the hardest stretch of the Thunder's season while missing Westbrook.

That's what I mean when I say Lebron doesn't have a single argument as of today. Add voter fatigue to all this and I can't see how he would win right now.

Unless you think that MVP voters are so stupid that they'll just vote for the player that most recently scored 50+. And most of them aren't that stupid.

Again, this is all assuming that the season ended right now.

[MisterHibachi]

That's what I mean when I say Lebron doesn't have a single argument as of today. Add voter fatigue to all this and I can't see how he would win right now.

Voter:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/440902959891611648[/tweet]

[dautjazz]

I think Lebron is about par with Durant now, he had to do a lot of catching up, but now it's basically the last lap, anything can happen. The Heat are the hottest team in the NBA, while the Thunder are 2-4 over their last 6 games. I think if the Heat have the better record, I think Lebron will get the MVP. Lebron's stats are on the way up, as usual for the closing stretch of the season, while Durant's numbers are starting to come back down to earth with Westbrook back. Not to mention in the end of the day, you know in your heart Lebron is the better player, so that could be the x-factor, that or voter fatigue.

[dautjazz]

I believe all these guys have votes.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/440902959891611648[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Chris_Broussard/status/440898337399926785[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/IzzyESPN/status/440872065152090113[/tweet]

I believe they're all right. If the season ended today, CO-MVPs, if I had to pick one, I'd probably give in to Durant, he did amazingly well the keep the ship afloat while Westbrook was out.

[Massamba]

LeBron james impact on the game is more than stats.