Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

TheBabyMaker · Post #561 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 5:27 am

you forgot me homie. tbm

Post #562 » by **Zonkerbl** » Mon Feb 10, 2014 7:58 pm

dckingsfan · Post #563 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:55 pm

TheBabyMaker wrote:you forgot me homie. tbm

Have you down for 42...

dckingsfan · Post #564 » by **dckingsfan** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:58 pm

Wizards are 7 and 12 without Nene - if he is out for the season as some predict - that would have us finishing with 9 - 10 wins on top of our current 28. Does 37 wins get us in the playoffs?

I think yes - barely. Especially since we have a pretty easy schedule to finish.

AFM · Post #565 » by **AFM** » Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:01 pm

I had 49-33 and I'm confident.

dckingsfan · Post #566 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 4:35 pm

With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race :bowdown:

Nivek · Post #567 » by **Nivek** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 5:03 pm

dckingsfan wrote:With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race

Hands will need a new pitcher of Kool-Aid for this post...

I put together a spreadsheet that estimates the odds of the Wizards winning each of their remaining games. If I use their full-season numbers, they have a better than 50% chance of winning 18 of them. If each of the games played out the way the odds are currently estimated, the Wiz would finish their last 22 games 18-4 to finish 49-33.

Now for some salt in the Kool-Aid...they're basically coin-flip favorites in 9 of those games. The nature of coin flips being what they are, they're likely to lose 4 or 5 of those. Even so, 42 should be the low end of the range given how easy the schedule is the rest of the way. 43-45 wins looks pretty reasonable at this point.

dckingsfan · Post #568 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 5:27 pm

Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race

Hands will need a new pitcher of Kool-Aid for this post...

I put together a spreadsheet that estimates the odds of the Wizards winning each of their remaining games. If I use their full-season numbers, they have a better than 50% chance of winning 18 of them. If each of the games played out the way the odds are currently estimated, the Wiz would finish their last 22 games 18-4 to finish 49-33.

Now for some salt in the Kool-Aid...they're basically coin-flip favorites in 9 of those games. The nature of coin flips being what they are, they're likely to lose 4 or 5 of those. Even so, 42 should be the low end of the range given how easy the schedule is the rest of the way. 43-45 wins looks pretty reasonable at this point.

Did you calculate the odds without Nene and Webster

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #569 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 6:12 pm

dckingsfan wrote:With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race

I feel a force... it's pulling us...relentlessly... back... help, help, help... toward .500

You can only fight gravity (and destiny) for so long.

Nivek · Post #570 » by **Nivek** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 6:24 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
Did you calculate the odds without Nene and Webster

It gets more complicated to do that, but...yes. :oops:

Without Nenê the rest of the way (based on how the team has performed all season without him on the floor), they project to go 8-14. BUT, they've played significantly better without him since the latest knee injury, although against really bad teams.

Weirdly, without Nenê AND Webster, the number goes back to 18-4.

dobrojim · Post #571 » by **dobrojim** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 6:46 pm

Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race

Hands will need a new pitcher of Kool-Aid for this post...

I put together a spreadsheet that estimates the odds of the Wizards winning each of their remaining games. If I use their full-season numbers, they have a better than 50% chance of winning 18 of them. If each of the games played out the way the odds are currently estimated, the Wiz would finish their last 22 games 18-4 to finish 49-33.

Now for some salt in the Kool-Aid...they're basically coin-flip favorites in 9 of those games. The nature of coin flips being what they are, they're likely to lose 4 or 5 of those. Even so, 42 should be the low end of the range given how easy the schedule is the rest of the way. 43-45 wins looks pretty reasonable at this point.

at the risk of beating a dead horse and acting like a school marm, maybe he could get a typing
or use of edit function lesson with that pitcher of KoolAid. I normally skip his posts (sorry
Hands, don't mean to be unkind) but the last one I looked at (MEM game thread) was so chock
full of typos and unclear language...
IDK, SMH.

the edit function can be your friend if you let it.

edit to add - oops. Now I see we have a more appropriate thread for this.
Oh well.

hands11 · Post #572 » by **hands11** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 6:54 pm

Nivek wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:With 60 games in the books and a .517 winning percentage.... the Wizards are on pace to win 42 games.

42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com

Are leading this horse race

Hands will need a new pitcher of Kool-Aid for this post...

I put together a spreadsheet that estimates the odds of the Wizards winning each of their remaining games. If I use their full-season numbers, they have a better than 50% chance of winning 18 of them. If each of the games played out the way the odds are currently estimated, the Wiz would finish their last 22 games 18-4 to finish 49-33.

Now for some salt in the Kool-Aid...they're basically coin-flip favorites in 9 of those games. The nature of coin flips being what they are, they're likely to lose 4 or 5 of those. Even so, 42 should be the low end of the range given how easy the schedule is the rest of the way. 43-45 wins looks pretty reasonable at this point.

Is there a salt factor for Randy ?

Like him playing Gooden, AH and Miller together. New data that would be hard to factor in with the small sample size but you can come up with a general Randy factor. i.e. Something changed.. factor of Randy adjusting properly with in 10 games... .125

Glad the remaining schedule is easier, but some of those teams are getting better as well. But then they will also have to fight the tank factor to lose. Utah and MIL aren't without talent. Same with Orlando. But they have to want the best shots at a top 2 or top 4 pick.

I see nothing as a given. Specially with Randy coaching the games and Nene, Webster and Kevin out.

Its game by game.

Right now all I have to give me some comfort is Wall, Gortat and Trevor A. And I like what Trevor B has been doing. He is becoming a reliable mid range iso player. Now if he could only defend better.

Trevor A and Trevor B. What are the chances you get that on a team. :lol:

dckingsfan · Post #573 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 6:55 pm

Nivek wrote:Weirdly, without Nenê AND Webster, the number goes back to 18-4.

Wow, too weird for words... but the numbers are the numbers.

doclinkin · Post #574 » by **doclinkin** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 8:07 pm

Knockin' 'em off. Red = eliminated.

82 - WizardsWorld
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality,Chocolate City Jordanaire, Bigwig
49 - AFM, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report, dobrojim, FreeBalling, LyricalRico
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, evolushunize, dorianwrite, Halcyon
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, BarnabyJones, willbcocks, DallasShalDune, rockymac52, Nivek, DaSwami
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob, The Consiglieri
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN, JonathanJoseph, bulletproof_32, Upper Decker, doclinkin
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00, Benjammin
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

Say bye to indu :wave:

jeffsays · Post #575 » by **jeffsays** » Tue Mar 4, 2014 8:33 pm

doclinkin wrote:Knockin' 'em off. Red = eliminated.

82 - WizardsWorld
57 - deneem4
56 - jeffsays
52 - Chaos Revenant
51 - Wizardspride
50 - JWizmentality,Chocolate City Jordanaire, Bigwig
49 - AFM, Hands11, nuposse04
48 - Joe_Wiz, Bleacher Report, dobrojim, FreeBalling, LyricalRico
47 - TwentyOne920, zardsfan, jimij, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Zonkerbl, evolushunize, dorianwrite, Halcyon
46 - Jimmy (for the) Recard, sfam, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo
45 - Rafael122, Fischella, Deeptu McPullup, JAR69, Severn Hoos, MDStar, Illuminaire
44 - dangermouse, nate33, gesa2, montestewart, TheKingOfVa360, Payitforward, Donkey McDonkerton
43 - Wallbeliever, Higga, BarnabyJones, willbcocks, DallasShalDune, rockymac52, Nivek, DaSwami
42 - miller31time, TheBabyMaker, stevemcqueen1, barelyawake, GhostsOfGil, Keynote, thelvh.com
41 - long suffrin' boulez fan, sashae, WizStorm, dandridge 10, fishercob, The Consiglieri
40 - The Fax, pineappleheadindc, DaRealHibachi, hoopsworld.com, docsports.com
39 - DCKingsFan, tontoz, Dat2U, OffTheWall2, Bovada.LV, Sportsbook.com
38 - Ruzious, Dark Faze, Hypnotizer
37 - Earth2Ted, The Consiglieri, SUPERBALLMAN, JonathanJoseph, bulletproof_32, Upper Decker, doclinkin
36 - truwizfan4evr, MJG, Closg00, Benjammin
35 - FAH1223, AnotherFinn, BigA, pancakes3
34 - TGW, verbal8
32 - queridiculo
31 - Floater
30 - Knighthonor
27 - Upper Decker, Induveca

Say bye to indu

Noooooooooooooooooooo

TheBabyMaker · Post #576 » by **TheBabyMaker** » Thu Mar 6, 2014 7:12 am

Bump. Floater gone.

hands11 · Post #577 » by **hands11** » Thu Mar 6, 2014 8:12 am

Wow 61 games played 32-29

21 to go

If they can get to 46 I'll be happy. Thats 14-7 .667 win rate

That's going to be playing are a run rate we haven't seem over 20 games but its doable.

PS.. 52 - Chaos Revenant is still in the race. Shouldn't be in red.

Higga · Post #578 » by **Higga** » Thu Mar 6, 2014 4:15 pm

I picked 43. Looks like I might be spot on, maybe a tad short if we can sustain this current level of play.

Post #579 » by **Rafael122** » Thu Mar 6, 2014 4:31 pm

Losses against sub-500 teams:
Cleveland (2x)
Philadelphia
Detroit (2x)
Milwaukee
Atlanta
Boston
Utah

Even if they won half those games, they'd have 35-36 wins right about now. With a cupcake schedule the rest of the way, 45-47 wins would have been easily attainable, possibly even 50. It's kinda maddening, but it is what it is.

dckingsfan · Post #580 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu Mar 6, 2014 5:22 pm

I think that there were a lot of factors to take into consideration to predict the Wiz record.

1) year after year an amazing number of injuries
2) limited number of really NBA ready players
3) poor drafting year after year
4) Randy's limited coaching ability - especially on the offensive end
5) Inability to close out sub .500 opponents

Having Nene go down for a period of time shouldn't be a surprise. I have been surprised by the durability of the other players specifically Beal and Booker.

I only counted Gortat, Nene, Ariza, Webster and Wall as truly NBA ready players at the beginning of the season. I have been pleased by Booker/Seraphin/Beal.

It shouldn't be a surprise that we got limited production from our rookie - we knew he was injured in the preseason and well... he was picked by Ernie.

I think that Randy has coached up to his potential - especially on the defensive end of the court. And he has let Beal play through his mistakes - which probably cost us a game or two - but is well worth it in the end.

And this year again, we are having trouble with sub .500 teams - I think this is Wall not getting up for those games - but I could be waaaayyy off on that one.

So overall, they seem to be playing above what they have done in the past.

Just another perspective ...