rcontador wrote:HotRocks34 wrote:rcontador wrote:This is definitely true. But by your stats we also have
Durant Jan > Lebron Feb
Durant Feb > Lebron Jan
Durant season > Lebron season
PER and WS/48 agree.
Add in the fact that Durant carried the team without Westbrook and I don't see how Lebron could get the award if the season ended today. He doesn't have a single argument.
Of course that could change in the next 25 games.
I would suggest you read the entry I put up in the first page of the new MVP thread if you think LeBron has no arguments.
Here's the summary:
In 2007-08, Chris Paul finished one game behind Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant won the MVP. Here were the advantages Paul had over Kobe in PER and WS/48:
About 4.0 in PER
About 0.075 in WS/48
Both were far beyond what Durant's current advantages over LeBron are.
There's a misconception going on now, that the "best stats" or "best season" wins MVP all the time. It doesn't. Records matter. Narratives matter. Anyone who doesn't understand that might not understand the history of the award.
Durant is equal or better in every composite stat, far better by on/off stats, has an identical record with a dramatically stronger strength of schedule (+ weaker and more injured supporting cast), and swept the hardest stretch of the Thunder's season while missing Westbrook.
That's what I mean when I say Lebron doesn't have a single argument as of today. Add voter fatigue to all this and I can't see how he would win right now.
Unless you think that MVP voters are so stupid that they'll just vote for the player that most recently scored 50+. And most of them aren't that stupid.
Again, this is all assuming that the season ended right now.
So, you saw the disparity in the Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant advanced stats. The ones substantially more lopsided than the gap between LeBron and Durant.
Paul's Hornets were one game worse than the Lakers. As of today, the Heat lead the Thunder in winning percentage. Meaning, the Heat have the better record.
Record matters, just like Barkley said. And narrative matters, as I think Tim Legler said on SportsCenter last night. What have you done for me lately. January is gone; the gap in the stats isn't very large. KD scores more, but he also shoots more.
The answer to the "voter fatigue" is the "historical weight" argument. LeBron is on the verge of history, both in his current run and for MVPs. That also can sway voters. He's worn down this year because he's trying to get to 4 straight Finals, and do something no one else has ever done in NBA history in 4 years -- Olympic gold medal; 3 straight MVPs; 3-peat; 3 straight FMVPs; 4 consecutive Finals. Don't think voters aren't aware of that and might give LeBron a bit of a "pass" on a slight gap in stats. Voters want to be part of history, too.
Miami's supporting cast is old. Very old. They are the oldest team in the league by average age. The Thunder have improved because they are younger and have more depth now. Voters know these things.
Finally, voters know the Heat's record against the West. And the Heat's SOS is about to turn up.
If the vote were held today, I think LeBron wins. And if both teams continue on their current trajectories, I also feel LeBron will win. But Durant's not out of it yet, even though the narrative has slipped away from him.
