25 Man Roster Predictions

baulderdash77 · Post #1 » by **baulderdash77** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 6:15 pm

We're about 1/4 though spring training. What does your 25 man roster prediction look like?

Let's assume for now that Happ will be healthy and that we don't sign Santana, at least until there's better news

Position Players - I think we're set for starters but the bench isn't set by any means
C - Navarro
1B - Encarnacion
2B - Goins (kinda shudder here)
SS - Reyes
3B - Lawrie
RF - Bautista
CF - Rasmus
LF - Cabrera
DH - Lind
Backup Catcher- Kratz
Backup Infielder - Izturis
Backup Outfielder - Gose
4th Bench Spot/8th Bullpen spot - Sierra

SP - Dickey
SP - Morrow
SP - Buehrle
SP - Happ
SP - Hutchinson

RP - Jansen
RP - Santos
RP - Cecil
RP - Delebar
RP - Loup
RP - McGowan
RP - Rogers
8th RP Spot - I have 4 positional players

Outside looking in:
Thole
Getz
Kawasaki
Drabek
Romero
Stoman
Jeffress
Redmond

This isn't really controversial but there are certainly some other ways we could go.

Post #2 » by **Schad** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 6:40 pm

I'm dubious that we'll use a roster spot on Gose rather than continuing to give him full-time reps in AAA, so it wouldn't surprise me if Pillar made the team in that swing spot. But knowing this club and its obsession with maintaining mediocre players who are out of options, it might be Jeffress as a (totally unnecessary) eighth reliever.

Lateral Quicks · Post #3 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 6:57 pm

LIneup

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
Encarnacion
Lind
Lawrie
Rasmus
Navarro
Franklin*

Bench

Sierra
Izturis
Kratz

Starters

Dickey
Morrow
Santana
Buerhle
Hutchison

Bullpen

Janssen
Santos
Delabar
Cecil
Loup
Rogers
McGowan
Jeffress

*Franklin via trade from Seattle.

Missing the cut/trade bait for Franklin/others
Happ
Thole
Drabek
Stroman
Redmond
Nolin
Jenkins
Gose
Pillar
Kawasaki

baulderdash77 · Post #4 » by **baulderdash77** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 7:14 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:I'm dubious that we'll use a roster spot on Gose rather than continuing to give him full-time reps in AAA, so it wouldn't surprise me if Pillar made the team in that swing spot. But knowing this club and its obsession with maintaining mediocre players who are out of options, it might be Jeffress as a (totally unnecessary) eighth reliever.

We do have an unhealthy obsession with keeping mediocre players and we may carry 8 bullpen arms as a result, which is wasteful. I can't think of another team who does that. To me it's a question of keeping Sierra or Jeffress.

I think we have to carry Gose because we don't have anyone else who can play backup CF. Gose has defensive value and he can also be used as a pinch runner, similar to Rajai last year. It's pretty conceivable that Gose could get 200 AB's as a 4th OF and still have 30 SB because of his pinch running.

Sierra could see time just as a platoon option to hit lefties for Lind. I don't think anyone wants to see Lind take 20% of the AB's against lefties this year. He has a (small sample alert) .805 OPS vs lefties and a .684 OPS vs righties which is to be expected with his right hander and his swing type. Just from platoons at DH he could get 150 AB and I think you take that compared to Adam Lind's horrific lefty splits. Definitely a lemons from lemonade situation.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 7:32 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:We do have an unhealthy obsession with keeping mediocre players and we may carry 8 bullpen arms as a result, which is wasteful. I can't think of another team who does that. To me it's a question of keeping Sierra or Jeffress.

I think we have to carry Gose because we don't have anyone else who can play backup CF. Gose has defensive value and he can also be used as a pinch runner, similar to Rajai last year. It's pretty conceivable that Gose could get 200 AB's as a 4th OF and still have 30 SB because of his pinch running.

Sierra could see time just as a platoon option to hit lefties for Lind. I don't think anyone wants to see Lind take 20% of the AB's against lefties this year. He has a (small sample alert) .805 OPS vs lefties and a .684 OPS vs righties which is to be expected with his right hander and his swing type. Just from platoons at DH he could get 150 AB and I think you take that compared to Adam Lind's horrific lefty splits. Definitely a lemons from lemonade situation.

With Gose, it's mostly a question of his value as a prospect. If that's done and dusted, you perhaps carry him as a defensive 4th OF/lefty bat off the bench. If he still has some value around the league, that dies if he ceases to get regular reps.

On Franklin, I struggle to understand exactly what they're looking for there. It's been suggested that they way pitching and a right-handed bat, but it's less clear whether they want immediate pitching help or to add to their depth...they have some injuries, but their rotation is in good shape even still. If they're looking to split the difference between current depth and bolstering their long-term prospects, something like Pillar + Norris + a cheap bullpen arm (say, Wagner) might be sufficient. If they want a powerful righty bat first and foremost, we're **** out of luck.

baulderdash77 · Post #6 » by **baulderdash77** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 7:57 pm

The hope and dream of Gose becoming a Kenny Lofton type player are over. His %K rate is just too high for him to ever be a really good hitter. His upside is probably .260/.330/.410 with good/great defense, 5-10 HR and 30-40 SB per year. He's turning 24 this season so it's his last season as a "prospect". The future is now for Gose.

I say you play him here this year and maybe next season we if we keep him Rasmus can move to LF and Gose can play CF. He's still controllable for a number of seasons so it's time to use him.

TorontoRaptures · Post #7 » by **TorontoRaptures** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 8:15 pm

That Lind/Navarro/Goins sequence in the batting lineup is going to be painful. (Of course, knowing the Jays, Lind will somehow be hitting fifth)

If the Jays sign Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana (or another starter of an equal level), then this team can compete. Otherwise, the roster predictions posted by Baulderdash and LateralQuicks (which look accurate) will not suffice, especially in the AL East.

There There · Post #8 » by **There There** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 8:23 pm

TorontoRaptures wrote:That Lind/Navarro/Goins sequence in the batting lineup is going to be painful. (Of course, knowing the Jays, Lind will somehow be hitting fifth)

If the Jays sign Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana (or another starter of an equal level), then this team can compete. Otherwise, the roster predictions posted by Baulderdash and LateralQuicks (which look accurate) will not suffice, especially in the AL East.

As long as he is not playing against lefties, Lind is not included in any issues this team may have.

And although Navarro likely won't come close to repeating last year, he should be fine at the bottom of the lineup.

dagger · Post #9 » by **dagger** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 11:16 pm

In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

Michael Bradley · Post #10 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 11:50 pm

Luis Perez will start the year on the DL so that eliminates one fringy pitcher with no options left from contention. I think they will go with eight relievers again. From the looks of it the 7 guaranteed relievers are going to be Janssen, Santos, Cecil, Delabar, Loup, McGowan, and Rogers. If you assume Hutchison and Happ are the final two starters, then that leaves Redmond and Jeffress on the outside looking in, and I don't think the Jays are in any position to lose a replacement level calibre starter for nothing (Redmond). I don't particularly care for Jeffress, but AA seems to like him, so who knows what his thoughts are there. I'm going to guess either Janssen, McGowan, or both will start the year on the DL, and both Redmond and Jeffress will find their way in.

Post #11 » by **Schad** » Sun Mar 9, 2014 11:50 pm

dagger wrote:In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

There There · Post #12 » by **There There** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:42 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
dagger wrote:In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

That's what I'm hoping for, that he's able to clear that logjam to add some depth to the bench.

Whatever does or does not happen between now and then, just don't break camp with eight relievers. This season is too important to be sabotaging it by making poorly conceived roster decisions based purely on lack of options.

Santoki · Post #13 » by **Santoki** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:48 am

They're spooked that their starting pitching won't hold up and they'll need a guy like Redmond to step in. That's why I see them rolling with 8 relievers.

There There · Post #14 » by **There There** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:19 am

Santoki wrote:They're spooked that their starting pitching won't hold up and they'll need a guy like Redmond to step in. That's why I see them rolling with 8 relievers.

Assuming nothing happens with Santana, Rogers would be the long man who could slip into the rotation. Beyond him, there will be plenty of arms in AAA who could fill in.

And if Santana happens, then you have either Happ/Rogers who can fill in from the pen before dipping into AAA.

Whether another team claims Redmond should be the least of AA's concerns... if it isn't, then he isn't taking this season seriously.

Lateral Quicks · Post #15 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:33 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
dagger wrote:In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

Concur. A package of a major league reliever, Nolin-calibre prospect, and Sierra/Gose could net us something useful while reducing the logjam.

Santoki · Post #16 » by **Santoki** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:39 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
dagger wrote:In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

Concur. A package of a major league reliever, Nolin-calibre prospect, and Sierra/Gose could net us something useful while reducing the logjam.

We're three weeks from breaking camp. What are the chances they get something like this done in that time? It's seemingly been available for 5 months.

There There · Post #17 » by **There There** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:43 am

Santoki wrote:
Lateral Quicks wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

Concur. A package of a major league reliever, Nolin-calibre prospect, and Sierra/Gose could net us something useful while reducing the logjam.

We're three weeks from breaking camp. What are the chances they get something like this done in that time? It's seemingly been available for 5 months.

It's unlikely anything significant would happen (ie... an everyday player or a starter ), but as teams start to firm up their 25 man, we could probably use our depth in the pen to shore up the bench a bit.

For example, I have no idea what Chicago would be looking for, but I'd feel better with a Lind/Viciedo platoon.

dagger · Post #18 » by **dagger** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:14 am

There There wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
dagger wrote:In all of these lists, I don't see Wagner as in or out. I think he's out, but he and Stilson who has a couple of nice outings will be in the mix when injuries hit.

We reeeeally need to see if we can move a reliever or two. Wish we had found a home for one of Janssen/Santos/Delabar, because we have the depth to absorb that loss pretty easily. They're effectively the only major-league trade bait that we have for which that is the case.

That's what I'm hoping for, that he's able to clear that logjam to add some depth to the bench.

Whatever does or does not happen between now and then, just don't break camp with eight relievers. This season is too important to be sabotaging it by making poorly conceived roster decisions based purely on lack of options.

It's not only a logjam, it's bordering on a stupidity because we won't necessarily go with the best candidates, we will go with the ones without options. I understand the need to be careful with options with guys like Hutchinson, but when you are worried about losing Redmond or Jeffress to the point you send Wagner to Buffalo, and you keep three closer types in Casey/Santos/Delabar which smacks of overkill, you are mismanaging, not maximizing, assets.

Post #19 » by **Schad** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:15 am

Santoki wrote:We're three weeks from breaking camp. What are the chances they get something like this done in that time? It's seemingly been available for 5 months.

i'd argue that it's more likely now, in some situations. Teams are finalizing rosters, and this is the point at which they judge current options to be wanting. Not a defense of anyone, but we have enough of a stockpile of mediocrity that we could perhaps trade three of them to get a slightly-less-mediocre option at a position of need.

Santoki · Post #20 » by **Santoki** » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:19 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
Santoki wrote:We're three weeks from breaking camp. What are the chances they get something like this done in that time? It's seemingly been available for 5 months.

i'd argue that it's more likely now, in some situations. Teams are finalizing rosters, and this is the point at which they judge current options to be wanting. Not a defense of anyone, but we have enough of a stockpile of mediocrity that we could perhaps trade three of them to get a slightly-less-mediocre option at a position of need.

I was just hoping that we could turn one of our All-Star relievers into something more than an end of the bench bat or mediocre platoon partner with Lind. But, I suppose not every deal will be as good as that Rasmus one.