Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[dckingsfan]

Yep, both scenarios are possible - this could be a pretty wild off-season in a very good or bad way.

[Dark Faze]

would love if Dallas took them both off our hands

We get to see what we have in Otto, maybe get a lottery pick next year and maybe bring back Okafor as a patch

save those big dollars for a decent free agency class

[DCZards]

Um... good riddance? They're good players but they are also replaceable. If Cuban wants them he can overpay them. We shouldn't. We can't afford to.

Good riddance? Not so fast. No, we shouldn't overpay them (but aren't most NBA players overpaid?) Ariza and Gortat are both very good, smart and hardworking NBA players who are helping the Zards win. Yeah, they might be replaceable but with whom? Not a lot of quality free agents available this offseason. In fact, Ariza and Gortat are both probably in the top 5-8 of the free agent class.

[DCZards]

would love if Dallas took them both off our hands

We get to see what we have in Otto, maybe get a lottery pick next year and maybe bring back Okafor as a patch

save those big dollars for a decent free agency class

Do you really think it would be smart to go from an above .500, playoff team this year back to a below .500, lottery bound team next year? I think when you start winning you try to keep winning. Not regress. No quality free agent is likely to sign with a losing team.

[rockymac52]

I was beginning to think that Gortat would cost a lot of money because of how good big men typically get paid on the open market, as well as the fact that there are very few quality centers available this year, IMO (at least compared to SFs). But then I went through all 30 teams looking at team need and cap space, and I really don't think there are a lot of realistic destinations outside of Washington for Gortat.

Teams that already have a good center and thus likely wouldn't want to spend $8-12 million a year for a backup:
1. Hawks (Horford)
2. Nets (Lopez)
3. Bobcats (Jefferson)
4. Bulls (Noah)
5. Nuggets (McGee/Hickson)
6. Pistons (Drummond)
7. Warriors (Bogut)
8. Rockets (Dwight)
9. Pacers (Hibbert)
10. Grizzlies (Gasol)
11. Bucks (Sanders)
12. Timberwolves (Pekovic)
13. Knicks (Chandler)
14. Magic (Vucevic)
15. Kings (Cousins)

Teams that are already over the cap or will have an insignificant amount of cap space (several teams from above list could just as easily fall into this category):
16. Clippers
17. Pelicans* (depends on exactly where the salary cap falls, they could have about $8 million available, but we could just top that offer so it's not a big concern to me)
18. Thunder
19. Trail Blazers

Teams that are in full rebuild mode, and thus probably wouldn't want to spend their cap space on a 30 year old center:
20. Celtics
21. 76ers
22. Suns (even if you buy into their record this year, they did just trade him to us after all, so unlikely they'd want him)
23. Jazz

That leaves the Cavaliers, HEAT, Lakers, Mavericks, Raptors, and Spurs.

Cavaliers: have enough cap space, but they might try and re-sign Deng and/or Hawes first, or go after a bigger name, and it's not like they're in desperate need for a center since they already have Varejao and Thompson. They need wings more than anything. And what's so much better about the Cavs roster than the Wizards'? I'm not too worried about the Cavs - they might still think they're one piece away from being contenders, but I don't buy it, and I don't think Gortat would either.

HEAT: all depends on what goes down with LeBron. If he stays, so do Bosh and Wade, and they have no cap space. If he leaves, **** hits the fan, and anything is possible. It would depend on how many of them left, since it's clear that Gortat wants to play for a contender.

Lakers: I think this is a long shot, and I don't even know if they'd be interested in signing Gortat since they know it's time to rebuild. But at the same time, they don't have much left with Kobe, and I could actually see Gortat and Kobe getting along well. If Nash is still in the league next year, he's got that connection with Gortat as well, and that could be important, although Nash is a shell of his old self and everyone knows it. Not too worried about this one.

Mavericks: He signed his offer sheet there 5 years ago, so he clearly liked something about playing there, whether it's the lack of income tax in Texas or Cuban or Dirk. I don't think it would be in the best interests of the Mavs to sign him given the rest of their roster, but who knows? Cuban was prepared to give Tyson Chandler a 1 year $15 million deal or something like that, so perhaps he would consider a similar proposal for Gortat. Him and Dirk would be a nice combo I suppose, but fairly weak defensively, and when you add in the fact that Calderon and Ellis are also starting, that has the makings of a brutal defensive team.

Raptors: Even after they re-sign Lowry (if they're able to get him to stay), they could still have $10 million or so in cap space. Although they already have Valanciunas, Johnson, Hansbrough, Hayes, and Patterson (RFA, but I personally fully expect Masai to re-sign him), so it's a bit crowded and no pressing need for Gortat, whereas they could use improvements on the wing and potentially PG if Lowry leaves. I wouldn't count them out just yet, since Masai could easily flip one or two of those guys to clear roster and cap space. Not overly concerned about them, however.

Spurs: This is the team I'm terrified of. If Duncan retires after this season (I don't think he will), then this gains even more traction. But even if he plays another season, I think this could have legs. Spurs already have their PGs in Parker, Joseph, and Mills (if they re-sign him). They have their SGs locked up in Green, Belinelli, and Ginobili. They have their star SF in Leonard, although they're still in search of a backup to play a limited role. Then they'd have Duncan and Splitter starting, with Ayres on the bench (but I don't think he's important enough to stop them from acquiring a better big). They could just choose to re-sign Diaw and/or Bonner, but they might be tempted to go for Gortat instead. They could have around $9 million in cap space, which falls right in line with Gortat's expected price tag. This is their time to go all in since Duncan is likely playing his last season. Splitter only plays about 20-25 MPG, so there's plenty of playing time available. Playing with Tony Parker would probably be very appealing to Gortat. Could be a good fit with the Spurs' preference for foreign born players. They'd undoubtedly be a better situation and team for Gortat than we would be, so we couldn't even be mad. Oh, and there's no income tax in Texas, meaning a $9 million salary for the Spurs is actually equal to a $10-11 million salary with the Wizards.


Bottom line, there just aren't that many realistic destinations for Gortat outside of Washington. Since we'll be using his Bird rights to re-sign him, we might as well spend an extra $2-3 million if that's what it takes to keep him, since if we don't re-sign him, we're likely not going to have any cap space to spend on other players anyways, so it's kind of a use it or lose it situation. Overpaying doesn't hurt us much, especially if it's only a 2 year deal since we won't have cap space next summer either.

[Zonkerbl]

Um... good riddance? They're good players but they are also replaceable. If Cuban wants them he can overpay them. We shouldn't. We can't afford to.

Good riddance? Not so fast. No, we shouldn't overpay them (but aren't most NBA players overpaid?) Ariza and Gortat are both very good, smart and hardworking NBA players who are helping the Zards win. Yeah, they might be replaceable but with whom? Not a lot of quality free agents available this offseason. In fact, Ariza and Gortat are both probably in the top 5-8 of the free agent class.

Um, couldn't we take that same money and make a run at, say, Greg Monroe?

They're eminently replaceable. I have at least that much trust in EG.

[Dark Faze]

would love if Dallas took them both off our hands

We get to see what we have in Otto, maybe get a lottery pick next year and maybe bring back Okafor as a patch

save those big dollars for a decent free agency class

Do you really think it would be smart to go from an above .500, playoff team this year back to a below .500, lottery bound team next year? I think when you start winning you try to keep winning. Not regress. No quality free agent is likely to sign with a losing team.

this team is full of a bunch of patches--Ariza and Gortat will be on the wrong side of 30 soon, Harrington, Gooden, Miller, Nene...success with this core will be shortlived.

I'm not advocating that we don't try to make a run at Ariza and Gortat, but if we have to pay over market value and give them 4 year deals in order to do it...nah...give me the tank

[closg00]

Congrats to Ernie for helping the Wizards achieve this designation.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/sports/the- ... ry.html/3/

[rockymac52]

Um... good riddance? They're good players but they are also replaceable. If Cuban wants them he can overpay them. We shouldn't. We can't afford to.

Good riddance? Not so fast. No, we shouldn't overpay them (but aren't most NBA players overpaid?) Ariza and Gortat are both very good, smart and hardworking NBA players who are helping the Zards win. Yeah, they might be replaceable but with whom? Not a lot of quality free agents available this offseason. In fact, Ariza and Gortat are both probably in the top 5-8 of the free agent class.

Um, couldn't we take that same money and make a run at, say, Greg Monroe?

They're eminently replaceable. I have at least that much trust in EG.

No, not really. Greg Monroe is going to cost the max, or VERY close to it. So we're talking a starting salary of at least $12 million, likely $14 million. Assuming we keep Andre Miller, and also Glen Rice (it's only about 400k unguaranteed, so very little cost to keep him on for another year), we'll have $46 million in salaries between Wall, Miller, Beal, Rice, Webster, Porter, and Nene (7 players). Salary cap is projected at about $62 million from my understanding. That leaves $16 million in cap space, which yes, technically is enough to sign Monroe, but that would eat up basically all of our cap space, and we wouldn't have the MLE because we were under the cap (or a first round pick). So then we'd have a line up of:

PG: Wall/Miller
SG: Beal/Rice
SF: Webster/Porter
PF: Nene
C: Monroe

That starting lineup is probably worse than our current starting 5, and more importantly, the bench DOES NOT EXIST. We'd have to fill out the roster with the room exception ($2.7 million) and minimum contracts. That is disgusting. That would be a truly terrible team. If you can't see that, I don't know what to tell ya. Monroe isn't a realistic option, IMO.

[Zonkerbl]

No, not really. Greg Monroe is going to cost the max, or VERY close to it. So we're talking a starting salary of at least $12 million, likely $14 million. Assuming we keep Andre Miller, and also Glen Rice (it's only about 400k unguaranteed, so very little cost to keep him on for another year), we'll have $46 million in salaries between Wall, Miller, Beal, Rice, Webster, Porter, and Nene (7 players). Salary cap is projected at about $62 million from my understanding. That leaves $16 million in cap space, which yes, technically is enough to sign Monroe, but that would eat up basically all of our cap space, and we wouldn't have the MLE because we were under the cap (or a first round pick). So then we'd have a line up of:

PG: Wall/Miller
SG: Beal/Rice
SF: Webster/Porter
PF: Nene
C: Monroe

That starting lineup is probably worse than our current starting 5, and more importantly, the bench DOES NOT EXIST. We'd have to fill out the roster with the room exception ($2.7 million) and minimum contracts. That is disgusting. That would be a truly terrible team. If you can't see that, I don't know what to tell ya. Monroe isn't a realistic option, IMO.

Wait, stop talking out of your butt. What does our cap situation have to do with replacing Ariza/Gortat with Monroe? If you replace Monroe above with Ariza and Gortat, you have EXACTLY THE SAME PROBLEM.

Completely irrelevant.

[rockymac52]

No, not really. Greg Monroe is going to cost the max, or VERY close to it. So we're talking a starting salary of at least $12 million, likely $14 million. Assuming we keep Andre Miller, and also Glen Rice (it's only about 400k unguaranteed, so very little cost to keep him on for another year), we'll have $46 million in salaries between Wall, Miller, Beal, Rice, Webster, Porter, and Nene (7 players). Salary cap is projected at about $62 million from my understanding. That leaves $16 million in cap space, which yes, technically is enough to sign Monroe, but that would eat up basically all of our cap space, and we wouldn't have the MLE because we were under the cap (or a first round pick). So then we'd have a line up of:

PG: Wall/Miller
SG: Beal/Rice
SF: Webster/Porter
PF: Nene
C: Monroe

That starting lineup is probably worse than our current starting 5, and more importantly, the bench DOES NOT EXIST. We'd have to fill out the roster with the room exception ($2.7 million) and minimum contracts. That is disgusting. That would be a truly terrible team. If you can't see that, I don't know what to tell ya. Monroe isn't a realistic option, IMO.

Wait, stop talking out of your butt. What does our cap situation have to do with replacing Ariza/Gortat with Monroe? If you replace Monroe above with Ariza and Gortat, you have EXACTLY THE SAME PROBLEM.

Completely irrelevant.

You're wrong.

First of all, we have TWO players in Ariza and Gortat, instead of just ONE in Monroe. Realistically, we'll also have Booker, and probably Seraphin, whereas if we went the Monroe route, we would have to renounce Booker, so we'd likely lose him as well. The problem when we sign Monroe is a severe lack of depth. By signing Ariza, Gortat, Booker, and Seraphin instead, we are adding almost an entire bench unit. That's the difference between playoffs and lottery for this team. You don't seem to understand we'd have to renounce every one of our FAs in order to sign Monroe, and then we'd be stuck with no flexibility to sign other role players even. Not to mention Monroe isn't even as good as Gortat at the moment.

[Zonkerbl]

No, not really. Greg Monroe is going to cost the max, or VERY close to it. So we're talking a starting salary of at least $12 million, likely $14 million. Assuming we keep Andre Miller, and also Glen Rice (it's only about 400k unguaranteed, so very little cost to keep him on for another year), we'll have $46 million in salaries between Wall, Miller, Beal, Rice, Webster, Porter, and Nene (7 players). Salary cap is projected at about $62 million from my understanding. That leaves $16 million in cap space, which yes, technically is enough to sign Monroe, but that would eat up basically all of our cap space, and we wouldn't have the MLE because we were under the cap (or a first round pick). So then we'd have a line up of:

PG: Wall/Miller
SG: Beal/Rice
SF: Webster/Porter
PF: Nene
C: Monroe

That starting lineup is probably worse than our current starting 5, and more importantly, the bench DOES NOT EXIST. We'd have to fill out the roster with the room exception ($2.7 million) and minimum contracts. That is disgusting. That would be a truly terrible team. If you can't see that, I don't know what to tell ya. Monroe isn't a realistic option, IMO.

Wait, stop talking out of your butt. What does our cap situation have to do with replacing Ariza/Gortat with Monroe? If you replace Monroe above with Ariza and Gortat, you have EXACTLY THE SAME PROBLEM.

Completely irrelevant.

You're wrong.

First of all, we have TWO players in Ariza and Gortat, instead of just ONE in Monroe. Realistically, we'll also have Booker, and probably Seraphin, whereas if we went the Monroe route, we would have to renounce Booker, so we'd likely lose him as well. The problem when we sign Monroe is a severe lack of depth. By signing Ariza, Gortat, Booker, and Seraphin instead, we are adding almost an entire bench unit. That's the difference between playoffs and lottery for this team. You don't seem to understand we'd have to renounce every one of our FAs in order to sign Monroe, and then we'd be stuck with no flexibility to sign other role players even. Not to mention Monroe isn't even as good as Gortat at the moment.

Gortat is going to get $9-$10 million. God knows what Ariza is going to get. We are going to have to renounce the same players under your scenario. YOU ARE FLAT OUT WRONG ADMIT IT.

:mic drop:

[nate33]

Zonker, you aren't understanding what rockymac is saying.

In order to have the cap room to sign Monroe, we must first renounce all of our cap holds - that includes all Bird Rights free agents (Gortat, Ariza, Booker, Seraphin) and the MLE. We could then sign Monroe but would only have vet-minimum salary exemptions to fill out our roster. The team would consist of Wall, Beal, Porter, Webster, Monroe, Nene and Rice plus minimum salary vets. (Admittedly, Gooden might be signable under this scenario)

The alternative is to use Bird Rights to resign Ariza, Gortat, Booker and Seraphin. And even go use the MLE to sign another guy. We would be way over the cap, but probably still under the luxtax. Our actual payroll would be much higher than in the Monroe scenario, but it would still be permitted under CBA rules.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah, well...

FREEBIRD!!!!!!!!!!!!

:moons you all:

[Silvie Lysandra]

It's entirely possible that in a still weak East, a Wall/Beal/Porter/Nene/Monroe core would make the playoffs as a low seed, especially as Beal and Wall continue to improve. And of course, we'd have to draft well (with EG at the helm siiiiiiigh) and see if we can find min salary contributors (sigh). Still, we'd be better positioned for the future with our entire team save for whoever we trot out at PF being under 25.

I think the obvious answer to this conundrum is to trade Nene for in a deal that provides enough salary relief to retain at least one of our bench players. I think Nene to the Thunder for Collison, Perkins and a low end asset pr draft pick could work, depending if Presti is willing to add long term salary to take the team over the top (while essentially turning the low chance of Durant walking into a 0% chance, because the Wizards are really the only other viable option for Durant to go to)

Basically the above deal gets us

C: Monroe/Seraphin/Perkins
PF: Collison/Seraphin
SF: Webster/Porter or Porter/Webster
SG: Beal/Webster
PG: Wall/min salary

Sucky bench but solid future core with lots of future potential.

[Zonkerbl]

Zonker, you aren't understanding what rockymac is saying.

In order to have the cap room to sign Monroe, we must first renounce all of our cap holds - that includes all Bird Rights free agents (Gortat, Ariza, Booker, Seraphin) and the MLE. We could then sign Monroe but would only have vet-minimum salary exemptions to fill out our roster. The team would consist of Wall, Beal, Porter, Webster, Monroe, Nene and Rice plus minimum salary vets. (Admittedly, Gooden might be signable under this scenario)

The alternative is to use Bird Rights to resign Ariza, Gortat, Booker and Seraphin. And even go use the MLE to sign another guy. We would be way over the cap, but probably still under the luxtax. Our actual payroll would be much higher than in the Monroe scenario, but it would still be permitted under CBA rules.

Sooooo... if we somehow acquired Monroe in a sign and trade or something we wouldn't have this problem, right? Or is the only possible way to acquire Monroe through FA?

Although doesn't Monroe's defense kinda suck? I'm not sure we'd be all that much better off.

[verbal8]

Gortat at 9-10/million and Ariza on a reasonable deal is pretty clearly better than Monroe at his max(15 million), not to mention the depth that could be retained.

Where the choice would get interesting is if Ariza bolts and the prices are very close(say $12 million). I think that is enough to keep a depth guy or two and basically replace Gortat with Monroe. Even if Gortat ends up better over his career, which is better the prime of Monroe's or the decline of Gortat's?

The ideal choice would be door number 3 is let both walk, and try to find younger players or do a real rebuild around Wall/Beal/Porter. Sander/Ilyasova or Asik would probably be my first choices and they might be available for just cap space, or maybe Nene in the case of Asik.

[nate33]

Yes. A S&T would be an option. Though in order for Detroit to bite, they would have to get back a player/prospects that are more valuable to them that what they could do with the cap room obtained by letting Monroe walk. That's the hard part. They wouldn't sign and trade Monroe for Nene, for example. It would have to be Monroe for Porter + Webster or something like that.

And yes, Monroe's defense does kinda of suck. That's why many here are saying that the better option is to resign Gortat and Ariza.

[Dark Faze]

Best option for long and short term is to move Web so we can develop Porter and Rice more and extend Ariza and Gortat for just a couple of years so that the trio of Ariza, Gortat and Nene expire the same summer.

Short of that, locking them up locks you into this core for a longggg time

Honestly I'll take the unknown and see what happens. I just can't be locked into this core for the next five years. No way.

[Kanyewest]

Yes. A S&T would be an option. Though in order for Detroit to bite, they would have to get back a player/prospects that are more valuable to them that what they could do with the cap room obtained by letting Monroe walk. That's the hard part. They wouldn't sign and trade Monroe for Nene, for example. It would have to be Monroe for Porter + Webster or something like that.

And yes, Monroe's defense does kinda of suck. That's why many here are saying that the better option is to resign Gortat and Ariza.

Ariza makes a lot of sense on the Pistons. They need catch and shoot 3 point shooters. A sign and trade package for him makes sense for them; I'm not sure what the filler would be plus Ariza would need to agree.

If Isiah becomes the GM, maybe they would do a sign and trade for Nene