Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

[Illuminaire]

Story Time(TM)

My in-laws love to play Ticket To Ride. It's a fairly simple board game, so it was easy for them to learn, and it's been a staple of our family game nights for the last year. Since I usually avoid playing in favor of a 'banker' style role, I get the chance to simply observe how each of my relatives chooses to play the game. I've found this a fascinating case study in how different people approach a strategy game.

One such family member is always going for the sure thing. Whenever he has the choice between drawing multiple cards he can't control, or guaranteeing one that he can, he picks the latter option. Choosing to do this at key times can be very beneficial, as it can complete a set of cards and help you win the game; by defaulting to this strategy every time, however, he always ends up with significantly fewer overall resources than everyone else.

That same individual always plays for what he needs right then. He doesn't plan for what he will need down the road - he just lays down the most immediate train route. Because of this he tends to jump out to early leads, then dwindle slowly over the course of the game. He doesn't read the board either, making all of his moves in a vacuum without considering the decisions other players will make. Inevitably, he almost always ends up in last place.

When I look at EG's moves as a GM, I see the same sort of decision making. Resources are expended for minimal gain, and there is shockingly little consideration for any priority other than present needs. Decisions are made with seemingly little thought to how they affect future decisions, or even how they will synergize with what is already on the table.

EG plays a losing strategy. Occasionally, luck and circumstances allow him to enjoy moderately successful results. But only for a time. Only for a turn or two. As long as his process is broken - and it is very, very broken - EG will always regress to the back of the pack.

[leswizards]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

[Nivek]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

Well, Vesely did become an asset. The Wizards traded him (along with Maynor and a 2nd round pick) for Andre Miller.

[montestewart]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

Well, Vesely did become an asset. The Wizards traded him (along with Maynor and a 2nd round pick) for Andre Miller.

Really puts the ass in asset

[Nivek]

Come on now, a former 6th overall pick, a free agent prize, and a future 2nd round pick isn't much to pay for a decent 37-year old PG.

[closg00]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

This quote is all one needs to confirm that Miley is a FO hack working for Ted. That or a troll.

Edit: Oops, didn't get the full-quote when responding on the iPhone, I will fix this later.

[lastemp3ror]

I just want to say that this is my favorite thread of all Wizards threads.

[Kanyewest]

Come on now, a former 6th overall pick, a free agent prize, and a future 2nd round pick isn't much to pay for a decent 37-year old PG.

Andre Miller was a #8 pick in a really good draft. EG really got good value...

[milellie111]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

At the time, there was nothing wrong with the Jan pick (especially taking all factors into consideration). An athletic big was definitely a need. Kyrie Irving was the only solidified "star" and was the no brainer at 1. With the exception of Irving, everyone else down to 10 was a question mark. Again, no need to draft Knight or Walker with Wall as your starting point. Jan is only 23 and is not out of the league, so i'm not sure about why some have written him off. He can still go on to have a very productive NBA career.

The Miller trade was about need. Jan was not being inserted into the rotation as we had a substantial amount of big men this year filling up minutes. This team needed a backup point guard due to Maynor not being fully recovered from the ACL tear in his right knee. Grunfeld recognized that a backup pg was a need to preserve Wall and the importance down the stretch for the playoffs. Since Jan was a luxury, we were able to let him go and retrieve a valuable need that helps us immediately.

[ptptpt]

As a Wiz fan I must say that this thread has been a joy to read. A real joy. Personally I am more on the fire Ernie side but this has opened me up to a lot of different points of views here.

I'm on the negative side on this one mainly because this team has not won anything of significance since 1978. I'm pretty sure a good portion of us (myself included) weren't even born then. So all most of us know is the negative side. We've suffered through at least the Gil years and the Jordan years and this John Wall era seems like much of the same. The team has some nice bright spots right now but who knows what it will look like in the next two years. I'm even concerned that this success that we are having might be only temporary instead of something concrete. In ten years of having Ernie as a GM he has built two playoff teams with mild postseason success. Its a decent resumé, not a good one, and certainly not a great one. For me personally, its not enough, especially since we are most likely to be bounced in the first round. I have never seen this team in the Finals before. I am not certain Ernie will get this organization there either. We have all seen in ten years what Ernie is capable of and for team that hasn't won anything since 1978, hoping better for the future just isn't enough anymore.

[dckingsfan]

There was nothing wrong with the Vesely pick and if you know basketball, you will see how Jan will be an asset to this team VERY soon.

I was rereading this thread looking for a particular quote, and I just saw this gem.

At the time, there was nothing wrong with the Jan pick (especially taking all factors into consideration). An athletic big was definitely a need. Kyrie Irving was the only solidified "star" and was the no brainer at 1. With the exception of Irving, everyone else down to 10 was a question mark. Again, no need to draft Knight or Walker with Wall as your starting point. Jan is only 23 and is not out of the league, so i'm not sure about why some have written him off. He can still go on to have a very productive NBA career.

The Miller trade was about need. Jan was not being inserted into the rotation as we had a substantial amount of big men this year filling up minutes. This team needed a backup point guard due to Maynor not being fully recovered from the ACL tear in his right knee. Grunfeld recognized that a backup pg was a need to preserve Wall and the importance down the stretch for the playoffs. Since Jan was a luxury, we were able to let him go and retrieve a valuable need that helps us immediately.

The following players were taken after Vesely - it does take skill to screw up that bad on a draft pick - true unmitigated skill. EG truly has proved doubters wrong - you can't be any worse.

Bismack Biyombo, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vučević, Imam Shumpert, Tobias Harris, Donatas Motiejūnas, Kenneth Faried, Reggie Jackson

[milellie111]

Again, patience is key. Ted takes the measured approach and sticking with Grunfeld shows that he remains committed to the plan. Change is not always for the better. Just look at OKC's slow start but recent success. This team and fanbase is beginning to reap the benefits of patience, building through the draft and committment.

[nate33]

In ten years of having Ernie as a GM he has built two playoff teams with mild postseason success. Its a decent resumé, not a good one.

It's not even decent. The Wizards have the 3rd worst collective record of the last 10 years. 27 of the 29 other teams in the NBA have done better than Grunfeld during this time period. How can that be construed as anything other than abject failure?

[milellie111]

As many of you would like to post nothing but negativity for Ernie Grunfeld, at least take notice of Scott Cacciola from the New York Times and his professional observation. The Knicks would most likely would not be in the turmoil they are in now as a franchise if Grunfeld was there.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/sports/basketball/grunfelds-plan-for-wizards-patience.html?hpw&rref=sports&_r=0


“They’ve been really patient with us,” said Beal, a shooting guard who was the third overall pick in the 2012 draft. “The front office believes in us. They’ve made a few trades here and there for the benefit of the team, but we’re only going to get better.”

Patience is not a word frequently used in professional sports. Fans are impatient. Owners are impatient. Yet the quest to win now, and win by any means necessary, often turns out to be an ill-conceived approach, one that strips the team of long-term stability.

Ted Leonsis, who became the majority owner in June 2010, told Grunfeld to rebuild the team through the draft, a goal that Leonsis knew would take time to achieve. Time is not an especially valued commodity in professional sports, but Leonsis was committed to using some.

“From Day 1, he said, ‘This is what we’re going to do, and it’s going to be painful at first,’ ” Grunfeld recalled. “ ‘But we’ll see the results as we move forward.’ And I think we’re starting to see it now. It’s still a process. We still have things we want to accomplish. But we feel like we have a very solid core.”

[nate33]

Again, patience is key. Ted takes the measured approach and sticking with Grunfeld shows that he remains committed to the plan. Change is not always for the better. Just look at OKC's slow start but recent success. This team and fanbase is beginning to reap the benefits of patience, building through the draft and committment.

OKC was patient?



The OKC "rebuild" started when they trade Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis in 2007. They had 2 bad years afterward when they won 20 and 23 years respectively while drafting Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook. Since then, they've posted 50+ wins every year.

The Wizards haven't won 50+ games in 30 years!

[Nivek]

As a Wiz fan I must say that this thread has been a joy to read. A real joy. Personally I am more on the fire Ernie side but this has opened me up to a lot of different points of views here.

I'm on the negative side on this one mainly because this team has not won anything of significance since 1978. I'm pretty sure a good portion of us (myself included) weren't even born then. So all most of us know is the negative side. We've suffered through at least the Gil years and the Jordan years and this John Wall era seems like much of the same. The team has some nice bright spots right now but who knows what it will look like in the next two years. I'm even concerned that this success that we are having might be only temporary instead of something concrete. In ten years of having Ernie as a GM he has built two playoff teams with mild postseason success. Its a decent resumé, not a good one, and certainly not a great one. For me personally, its not enough, especially since we are most likely to be bounced in the first round. I have never seen this team in the Finals before. I am not certain Ernie will get this organization there either. We have all seen in ten years what Ernie is capable of and for team that hasn't won anything since 1978, hoping better for the future just isn't enough anymore.

Only real quibble I have is your use of the word "decent" to describe Grunfeld's resume. During his tenure, the Wizards have had the league's 3rd worst winning percentage.

And let's keep in mind that when Abe Pollin gave Grunfeld a "win now" direction, he assembled a team that went 36-96 over a season and a half before he "tore it down." What Grunfeld tore down was a crumbling facade that HE built.

[Nivek]

As many of you would like to post nothing but negativity for Ernie Grunfeld, at least take notice of Scott Cacciola from the New York Times and his professional observation. The Knicks would most likely would not be in the turmoil they are in now as a franchise if Grunfeld was there.

This was my response to Cacciola's drivel.

Grunfeld's attempt to compare the Wizards with OKC was a poor one. OKC's improvement wasn't gradual or slow -- they had two bad seasons after picking Durant, they drafted EXTREMELY WELL, and then they were outstanding. In the three drafts after picking Durant, OKC got Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden -- and totally screwed the pooch on the third draft (traded multiple first round picks and came away with basically nothing).

In the three years after picking Wall, Grunfeld got Vesely, Singleton, Beal and Porter. The reason patience is required is because Grunfeld did so badly in 2011. The reason the Wizards "needed" to trade for veterans to get back to playoff contention is because they got nothing from that 2011 draft.

[dckingsfan]

As many of you would like to post nothing but negativity for Ernie Grunfeld...

You are clearly not on the boards enough... there has been both positive and negative on many of EGs moves.

What has been mostly universal criticism is about EGs overall body of work. Something you choose not to discuss.

[Illuminaire]

There was everything wrong with drafting Jan Vesely in the lottery. Everything.

The Wizards did not need an "athletic big man". They needed a productive big man. Heaven help us, you are literally making the same mistake that EG did when he drafted the Janchise.

Go back and watch Vesely's game tape from before he was drafted. Go look at his Euro league stats from that time. Don't worry, I'll wait.

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All done? Good.

It was as clear then as it is now - Jan had no NBA level skills. Not one. He couldn't dribble, shoot, pass, or play post defense at an NBA level. His team defense was passable, but still a work in progress. His finishing was hit-or-miss, because he had poor hands.

Jan made an impact on games by playing hard and being tall. That was good enough for a European club, but without vast improvement, he had zero future in the NBA. Given his age at the time (the equivalent of a junior in college!) Jan's lack of core, essential basketball skills was a HUGE red flag.

Jan Vesely was an indefensible pick at #6. That's not looking back with 20/20 vision, that's the argument 90% of the posters on this board were making when it happened.

[dckingsfan]

As many of you would like to post nothing but negativity for Ernie Grunfeld, at least take notice of Scott Cacciola from the New York Times and his professional observation. The Knicks would most likely would not be in the turmoil they are in now as a franchise if Grunfeld was there.

This was my response to Cacciola's drivel.

Grunfeld's attempt to compare the Wizards with OKC was a poor one. OKC's improvement wasn't gradual or slow -- they had two bad seasons after picking Durant, they drafted EXTREMELY WELL, and then they were outstanding. In the three drafts after picking Durant, OKC got Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and James Harden -- and totally screwed the pooch on the third draft (traded multiple first round picks and came away with basically nothing).

In the three years after picking Wall, Grunfeld got Vesely, Singleton, Beal and Porter. The reason patience is required is because Grunfeld did so badly in 2011. The reason the Wizards "needed" to trade for veterans to get back to playoff contention is because they got nothing from that 2011 draft.

Point, set, match