Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

[DCZards]

Nivek, I think your assessment of EG’s moves this year are fair and accurate…for the most part. I take issue with your conclusions as they relate to Rice and Porter, especially the use of the word “failure.”

Yes, more was expected from Porter. Obviously, the injury and the fact that the Zards are fighting for a playoff spot has severely limited Otto’s playing time and career thus far. You could label his pick a “failure” at this point, but that’s not necessarily an indictment of EG or the decision to take him with the 3rd pick.

Here’s the silver-lining: if Otto is getting stronger, which we all know he needs to do, working on his game, and learning something from being around Ariza, a solid vet who plays the same position, this year might be lost but there’s a good chance OP could eventually be worthy of his draft status.

Rice is only a failure if you expected him to be an immediate contributor. That would have been nice but not necessarily what the Zards were expecting from GRII. I think Rice has a good chance to be a decent NBA player and the fact that he’s in the D-league improving his game will likely turn out to be a smart move in the long run. Not exactly what I would call a “failure.”

[dckingsfan]

What is the time frame ?
Some feel the time frame is this year over last. Some feel its since Ted took over. Some think its since he was the Wizards GM. Some feel its his entire GM work. A case can be made for each of those as viable but some look at them separately, in context and weighted differently. The longer the time frame, the more variables there are.

Clearly some fans, specially new ones, look at this year over last or this year over two years or this year over since Ted as the more relevant conversation to have. For those who have prebaked everything is failure, the progress is a sell out dead end so they don't see progress as progress. Those people tend to find something bad in every move and always frame things and add speculation to make it that way. Or they change the conversation to something longer term that was bad that supports their negative take things. For those that understand the offseason is a huge blank slate, they see progress or progress toward something that can keep getting better so they are enjoying the good moves and more wins. Gooden was a good move so you find some fans of the Wizards enjoying things getting better year over year.

That's what goes on here.

Year over year is a win.
The combined moves both good and bad, improved med staff, etc. has added up to 7 more wins than last year so far with 13 games to go. Lets say they end up at 14 games better then last year. That 48% more wins.

No way you can ignore the validity of some fans seeing that as progress. Now you can change the time frame to draw the conversation into something negative, but evaluating things on shorter time frames is also relevant. It why people looking at stock look at different windows as well. I'm in a stock that tanked when the banks failed. It bottomed out at like 6. I got in after that. Its now at 14 and paying a 10% dividend. I wasn't in it before it tanked so I don't evaluate it based on that. Its an interesting reference point, but not more important then what it is doing for me know.

Not knowing what the offseason brings, it perfectly valid for fans to look at this data as a positive.

Even looking at the team year over year, I don't see the "win" for Grunfeld. The record is better, but his individual moves were mediocre at best.

1. Draft Porter -- incomplete for the long-term. For this season, it's an abject failure.
2. Traded two 2nd round picks for Glen Rice -- incomplete for the long-term, but like Porter for this season, it's a failure. Especially when one of the guys they traded (Wolters) has been a solid reserve PG (for league minimum).
3. Signed Eric Maynor -- total, complete, utter abject failure
4. Re-signed Martell Webster -- not a bad move in isolation. Webster's been down some this year (I think he's been playing hurt much of the year), but he still provides outstanding shooting. His game isn't much beyond the shooting, and his contract isn't outlandish, but it is full retail for what he does. But, giving full MLE to a limited SF/SG is at least questionable for a team with Ariza already on the roster, with Porter and Rice drafted, and with a glaring need for frontcourt depth.
5. Traded Okafor and a 1st round pick for Gortat -- On the court, a clear success. Gortat's been good. They'll probably re-sign him to the expensive decline portion of his career.
6. Traded Vesely, Maynor and a 2nd round pick for Andre Miller -- On the court, a good move. And, the Wizards didn't give up much. But still, that's two terrible mistakes plus another future asset for the league's second oldest PG.
7. Signed Drew Gooden -- good move so far.

So, seven roster moves -- three of which are total failures for this season, two of which are iffy (at best), and two of which were at least okay.

You just have to stop being so objective and looking at the big picture. Just look at #7 and then stop looking

And you forgot #8 (the hands special) - kept Wittman in place

[dckingsfan]

Nivek, I think your assessment of EG’s moves this year are fair and accurate…for the most part. I take issue with your conclusions as they relate to Rice and Porter, especially the use of the word “failure.”

He did have the caveat "for this season". I think it is fair that having the 3rd pick not play - even with an early injury is a "failure for the year".

Rice and Porter may very well turn out to be solid NBA players. Looking back on it (I know 20/20 isn't fair) front court help from Mason Plumlee, Steven Adams, Kelly Olynyk would have been fine. Or Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams for backup PG would have been fine (then no Maynor).

It is just EG being EG... cleaning up messes that he has made.

[Upper Decker]

Maybe I'm the only one on the board who feels this way, but it annoys me to no end that people still use Porters injury and the teams lofty playoff aspirations as a crutch for why he sucks. He’s been healthy for 5 months now, and maybe I’m mistaken but I’m pretty sure many NBA rookies have been meaningful contributors to teams success.

[Nivek]

Nivek, I think your assessment of EG’s moves this year are fair and accurate…for the most part. I take issue with your conclusions as they relate to Rice and Porter, especially the use of the word “failure.”

Yes, more was expected from Porter. Obviously, the injury and the fact that the Zards are fighting for a playoff spot has severely limited Otto’s playing time and career thus far. You could label his pick a “failure” at this point, but that’s not necessarily an indictment of EG or the decision to take him with the 3rd pick.

Here’s the silver-lining: if Otto is getting stronger, which we all know he needs to do, working on his game, and learning something from being around Ariza, a solid vet who plays the same position, this year might be lost but there’s a good chance OP could eventually be worthy of his draft status.

Rice is only a failure if you expected him to be an immediate contributor. That would have been nice but not necessarily what the Zards were expecting from GRII. I think Rice has a good chance to be a decent NBA player and the fact that he’s in the D-league improving his game will likely turn out to be a smart move in the long run. Not exactly what I would call a “failure.”

I understand what you're saying, and I agree -- long-term. Porter probably wouldn't have been my pick, but I thought he was a fine pick at that spot, and I still think he's going to be a good pro. I'm more dubious on Rice, but he represents a much smaller investment in terms of picks and money. My point was merely that Porter and Rice haven't contributed on the court this season. If we're grading the moves strictly on what those guys have done this season, those choices were failures.

But, taking a bigger picture view, the Porter selection at #3 was a C move. Made sense, other GMs and/or talent evaluators may well have made the same choice in that spot. I really don't have any complaints about choosing him.

The point of the exercise was strictly a year over year comparison. What did Grunfeld do since last season and how did they affect the team on the floor this season?

Here's another way of looking at it: after the draft lottery, Grunfeld went into the offseason armed with these immediate assets: #3 pick, two 2nd rounders, the BAE, the MLE and minimum salary exceptions. He came away with Porter, Rice, Maynor and a re-signed Webster. He eventually signed Gooden. He traded the injured Okafor and yet another asset (a future 1st) for Gortat. He traded Vesely, Maynor and still another future asset (a future 2nd) to get Miller.

I don't see how that performance -- looking ONLY at the moves since last season -- could be considered a job well done.

[dckingsfan]

Here's another way of looking at it: after the draft lottery, Grunfeld went into the offseason armed with these immediate assets: #3 pick, two 2nd rounders, the BAE, the MLE and minimum salary exceptions. He came away with Porter, Rice, Maynor and a re-signed Webster. He eventually signed Gooden. He traded the injured Okafor and yet another asset (a future 1st) for Gortat. He traded Vesely, Maynor and still another future asset (a future 2nd) to get Miller.

I don't see how that performance -- looking ONLY at the moves since last season -- could be considered a job well done.

I would say that is an abject failure - but I guess my language is a bit strong.

This thread is burying EG.

[hands11]

Nivek, I think your assessment of EG’s moves this year are fair and accurate…for the most part. I take issue with your conclusions as they relate to Rice and Porter, especially the use of the word “failure.”

Yes, more was expected from Porter. Obviously, the injury and the fact that the Zards are fighting for a playoff spot has severely limited Otto’s playing time and career thus far. You could label his pick a “failure” at this point, but that’s not necessarily an indictment of EG or the decision to take him with the 3rd pick.

Here’s the silver-lining: if Otto is getting stronger, which we all know he needs to do, working on his game, and learning something from being around Ariza, a solid vet who plays the same position, this year might be lost but there’s a good chance OP could eventually be worthy of his draft status.

Rice is only a failure if you expected him to be an immediate contributor. That would have been nice but not necessarily what the Zards were expecting from GRII. I think Rice has a good chance to be a decent NBA player and the fact that he’s in the D-league improving his game will likely turn out to be a smart move in the long run. Not exactly what I would call a “failure.”

Well in fairness, he did say.. incomplete for the long-term. For this season, it's an abject failure.

I agree that is not all EGs fault ( even though I would have draft differently). Randy has something to do with that. But even then, there wasn't a bucket of mins for him either way. We knew that the day they drafted him. And as you said, the injury really set him back. Another not EG's fault thing.

Having watched the games, I would have used him more than Randy has and tried to get him more regular spot minutes. But TA and Webster had the jump on him for the first crack at the minutes.

I pretty much agree with Nivs break down.

I would bump up the Gooden from to a great find and an awesome move if they can ink him next year for the vet min. Other then that, what weighs down Niveks's conclusion is the moves he says are incomplete based on this year. If Otto works out, the grade clearly goes up. He doesn't even have to work out here, he just have to return a good piece if he doesn't. Clearly we aren't getting the answer to that this year.

But year over year record ? That has been looking pretty good. 29 to 35 with 13 games to go. And with Randy coaching them.

Again, for me, EG has been an average GM. Some good. Some bad. But he did clean up his own poop ( Maynor) and that is good. Maynor was a terrible move. The 2nd year made it unbearable. Getting out of it was a good move. Kwame for Butler was a record good move. Ves at 6th when you couldn't commit to developing him, a terrible move. Never draft a project you aren't willing to commit to developing. Rice instead of Wolters... not looking like a good move.

I think if he sticks around he can keep improving the team. Would he be my first choice over a top GM, no. Could you do worse ? I think so.

But one things is for sure, lots on the table to get decided this summer. That's both exciting and scary.

[ptptpt]

Pick a methodology. Then people here can have an honest debate with you.

I am having an honest debate. The only thing that matters is that EG has assembled a team of first round picks that were obvious choices, high priced veterans that push the team toward the cap and luxury tax, and first round busts. He has added almost no players that are producing over and above what they are getting paid. His mistakes are killing the Wizards ability to build a long term contender. He needs to go.

So those are the only things that matter to you right now ? Sounds like you have forgotten what being a fan of a sports team is about.

Why with games remaining and a playoff appearance just ahead of them would the focus be on EG getting replaced when that decision isn't scheduled to happen until after the playoffs.

Why would you bother following them if you can't find any joy in what actually happening good that is happening right now ? And If there is no hope over the next 1-3 years because you don't trust Ted, why bother following them and posting on a bulletin board about them ? Just troll fans that actually find some joy in following the team ? Why not just come back when you think there is actually something to enjoy ? And what happens after the playoffs if EG gets resigned ? Are you going to stop being a fan of the team ? Well if that's the case, there is even more reason you should enjoy the remaining games and the playoffs because if they resign EG, you will be hunting for a new team to follow.

EG will get addressed in the offseason. The trade deadline has passed so him holding as the GM doesn't have much if any effect on the remaining games and playoff run. About the only thing he might still do is cut Singleton and call up Rice. Not franchise changing moves. The things you have concerns about are not active issues right now. They are summer issues.

So no, the things you say are the only important things to focus on are not the important things for fans of the team to focused on. Other more important things right now are the games left to play. The playoff experience. Its Wall and Beal developing. It watching new additions like Gooden, Miller and AH help them win. Its the franchise getting better exposure as the team shows a vastly better record then last year and improved play from Wall as their #1 pick franchise player. Its his newly developed 3 ball. I bet there are more fans focused on those things than worrying about what they do with EG over the summer.

SMH...That's kinda low to question someone's fan hood man. If you wan't folks to stop picking on the negative things, that's all fine and dandy. Nothing wrong with enjoying what's happening now. There is also nothing wrong with being concerned about this team's future right now. Cause all in all everybody is in it for the same goal, to see this franchise win rings right? And we all can pretty much figure that is not happening this year.

[hands11]

Nivek, I think your assessment of EG’s moves this year are fair and accurate…for the most part. I take issue with your conclusions as they relate to Rice and Porter, especially the use of the word “failure.”

Yes, more was expected from Porter. Obviously, the injury and the fact that the Zards are fighting for a playoff spot has severely limited Otto’s playing time and career thus far. You could label his pick a “failure” at this point, but that’s not necessarily an indictment of EG or the decision to take him with the 3rd pick.

Here’s the silver-lining: if Otto is getting stronger, which we all know he needs to do, working on his game, and learning something from being around Ariza, a solid vet who plays the same position, this year might be lost but there’s a good chance OP could eventually be worthy of his draft status.

Rice is only a failure if you expected him to be an immediate contributor. That would have been nice but not necessarily what the Zards were expecting from GRII. I think Rice has a good chance to be a decent NBA player and the fact that he’s in the D-league improving his game will likely turn out to be a smart move in the long run. Not exactly what I would call a “failure.”

I understand what you're saying, and I agree -- long-term. Porter probably wouldn't have been my pick, but I thought he was a fine pick at that spot, and I still think he's going to be a good pro. I'm more dubious on Rice, but he represents a much smaller investment in terms of picks and money. My point was merely that Porter and Rice haven't contributed on the court this season. If we're grading the moves strictly on what those guys have done this season, those choices were failures.

But, taking a bigger picture view, the Porter selection at #3 was a C move. Made sense, other GMs and/or talent evaluators may well have made the same choice in that spot. I really don't have any complaints about choosing him.

The point of the exercise was strictly a year over year comparison. What did Grunfeld do since last season and how did they affect the team on the floor this season?

Here's another way of looking at it: after the draft lottery, Grunfeld went into the offseason armed with these immediate assets: #3 pick, two 2nd rounders, the BAE, the MLE and minimum salary exceptions. He came away with Porter, Rice, Maynor and a re-signed Webster. He eventually signed Gooden. He traded the injured Okafor and yet another asset (a future 1st) for Gortat. He traded Vesely, Maynor and still another future asset (a future 2nd) to get Miller.

I don't see how that performance -- looking ONLY at the moves since last season -- could be considered a job well done.

Fair enough. I would add this though.

The Okafor move was a break glass in case of emergency. Okafor showed up injured out of no where the last second. Yes, he had past injuries, but he played 79 game the previous season and looked healthy. Giving up a first was not ideal but it was a mid first and getting Wall to the playoffs was a priority. And Gortat has gotten Wall to be a better PG since Wall can now do PnR which he didn't have before Gortat. For this year, Gortat was a great addition. Will it be worth that first ? I don't think we have the answer to that yet. Depends on what happens this offseason and how much getting Wall playoff experience helps him. Its no ideal but not terrible either.

Also that 2nd 2nd was a very low 2nd. Again, I didn't like what he did in the draft. I had a completely different strategy for them but I wanted to add those details. All the pieces connect though. What if they drafted Len and Wolters. What if it was Burke. Then maybe they don't trade Ves for Miller. What if they change coaches and Ves looks good in two year at only 25 after they signed him to vet min ? These are things that are hard to fully value in on a year basis. Interesting debate though but hard to pin down right now.

As for Webster. I agreed with the signing. Capping it at 5M would have been nicer though as would have been making it a 3 year deal - 2 and an option. But we know EG doesn't get those kind of saving. That's one of the bad things about him. We never seem to get savings on resignings.

Glad to see people taking a fair objective crack at this. Its not easy to evaluate.

[Nivek]

The Okafor move was a break glass in case of emergency. Okafor showed up injured out of no where the last second. Yes, he had past injuries, but he played 79 game the previous season and looked healthy.

The issue I have with this is that frontcourt depth was a need in the offseason. Not just because the team was planning to rely heavily on 30+ year old big men -- one of whom (Nenê) has had a recent injury history (and a chronic injury) -- but because they had next to nothing after those 30+ year olds and Booker. No amount of wishing was going to turn Seraphin, Singleton or Vesely into good backups.

Had they addressed big man depth during the offseason, perhaps Okafor's injury wouldn't have been an emergency, and they could have been more measured and long-term in their approach.

Giving up a first was not ideal but it was a mid first and getting Wall to the playoffs was a priority.

A) Mid 1st round picks are potentially quite valuable -- especially in the hands of a skilled talent evaluator and drafter.

B) Why is "getting Wall to the playoffs" this season so important? He's locked up long-term, and (to me) putting quality players who can grow with him over the next few seasons would be a bigger priority. Especially since they could have made the playoffs in this incredibly weak conference without turning to 30+ year old veterans.

And Gortat has gotten Wall to be a better PG since Wall can now do PnR which he didn't have before Gortat. For this year, Gortat was a great addition. Will it be worth that first ? I don't think we have the answer to that yet. Depends on what happens this offseason and how much getting Wall playoff experience helps him. Its no ideal but not terrible either.

Sorta agree, sorta don't. Biggest thing Wall needed to do to be better at screen/roll was on him -- using the screen better and shooting better. Gortat can catch the ball and finish in traffic, which is nice. I don't think he's made Wall better, but rather that he's given Wall a partner.

Also that 2nd 2nd was a very low 2nd. Again, I didn't like what he did in the draft. I had a completely different strategy for them but I wanted to add those details. All the pieces connect though. What if they drafted Len and Wolters. What if it was Burke. Then maybe they don't trade Ves for Miller. What if they change coaches and Ves looks good in two year at only 25 after they signed him to vet min ? These are thing that are hard to fully value in on a year basis. Interesting debate though but hard to pin down right now.

For this season, it's pretty easy to pin down. We know what they did, and most of this season's results are in. The issue with the Rice trade wasn't that they gave up that late 2nd, it was that they traded away a guy in Wolters who had a 1st round grade and who would have filled a significant need. Had they just picked Wolters, they could have used the BAE on a big man (Dejuan Blair considered minimum salary offers from Dallas and Washington before choosing the Mavericks). They also could have used that 54th pick on someone like Zeke Marshall -- another guy with a late 1st round grade (in my system anyway) who ended up going undrafted.

As for Webster. I agreed with the signing. Capping it at 5M would have been nicer though as would have been making it a 3 year deal - 2 and an option. But we know EG doesn't get those kind of saving. That's one of the bad things about him. We never seem to get savings on resignings.

I was okay with the re-signing. It was full retail, and I didn't like that option on the fourth season. It does seem like Grunfeld doesn't negotiate contracts so much as award them. This past offseason, he quite literally paid every acquisition the maximum he possibly could.

- Maynor got the full BAE plus a player option on the second year
- Webster got the full MLE for three years plus a conditional 4th year that vests based on games played
- Wall got the maximum for the full 5 seasons possible

[ptptpt]

If some of you can find nothing positive to say about Ernie Grunfeld and his management of the Wizards, at least be fair and give credit where it is due. Drew Gooden, averaging 17 points and 8.5 rebounds the past 4 games. Outstanding acquisition. His production far outweighs his contract value.

So? He's not the main piece that will bring this team a ring in the near future. You are gonna have to big up yourselves better than that of Drew Gooden. He's no Anthony Davis. Instead of trying to convince us of these current moves, what is the plan for the future? Keep this roster together and ride the waves of lukewarm playoff appearances? That's only gonna be good enough for a few seasons. Reality is you are gonna have to bring in or draft somebody that is better than Wall. Wall's not gonna carry this team by himself and the talent around him ain't enough. And you guys in management deep down know it too.

No one knows the answer to those questions. Pretending the do is nonsense.

There are big moves to make this off season. GM, HC and players. All you know is what they have right now with is a playoff appearance with a weak HC. Its a mixed bag to get excited about. But I'm happy for Wall and Beal since they will get their first playoff experience. Something I think is vital to their development. And Wall got his first AS appearance. And won the dunk contest. And is about to hit his 100s 3 point shot for the year very shorty.

Its been a good year for Wall and thats good for the franchise moving forward since he is signed as a core piece and team leader. That's what we know.

No its not nonsense. They are the ones building the team right? They should have a plan in place right? They should know enough about the league and their team to make adjustments.

I am glad you are optimistic about the direction the team is going. I am at the very least tepid about it. Going to the playoffs feels more like a consolation prize than real progress just because of the uncertainty of this team after the season. Having no draft picks in a pretty deep draft, having a top 3 pick who doesn't play, and possibly re-signing older players long term seems like moves a title contender makes and this team is pretty far from that. This is about feeling confident in management. I don't feel confident in them. Doesn't mean I am not happy for Wall and his continued progress. If anything, it makes me concerned about his long term prospects.

[Benjammin]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

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[hands11]

So? He's not the main piece that will bring this team a ring in the near future. You are gonna have to big up yourselves better than that of Drew Gooden. He's no Anthony Davis. Instead of trying to convince us of these current moves, what is the plan for the future? Keep this roster together and ride the waves of lukewarm playoff appearances? That's only gonna be good enough for a few seasons. Reality is you are gonna have to bring in or draft somebody that is better than Wall. Wall's not gonna carry this team by himself and the talent around him ain't enough. And you guys in management deep down know it too.

No one knows the answer to those questions. Pretending the do is nonsense.

There are big moves to make this off season. GM, HC and players. All you know is what they have right now with is a playoff appearance with a weak HC. Its a mixed bag to get excited about. But I'm happy for Wall and Beal since they will get their first playoff experience. Something I think is vital to their development. And Wall got his first AS appearance. And won the dunk contest. And is about to hit his 100s 3 point shot for the year very shorty.

Its been a good year for Wall and thats good for the franchise moving forward since he is signed as a core piece and team leader. That's what we know.

No its not nonsense. They are the ones building the team right? They should have a plan in place right? They should know enough about the league and their team to make adjustments.

I am glad you are optimistic about the direction the team is going. I am at the very least tepid about it. Going to the playoffs feels more like a consolation prize than real progress just because of the uncertainty of this team after the season. Having no draft picks in a pretty deep draft, having a top 3 pick who doesn't play, and possibly re-signing older players long term seems like moves a title contender makes and this team is pretty far from that. This is about feeling confident in management. I don't feel confident in them. Doesn't mean I am not happy for Wall and his continued progress. If anything, it makes me concerned about his long term prospects.

Not following you with your first statement. My comment that no one knows is about people posting here. Not unless they have inside information. That inside information would be about what Ted wants to do. It wasn't about if they have a plan in place. Besides, plans do include milestone and reevaluations. They build this into a plan. Plans do include known unknowns. They aren't all carved in stone. They don't know how everything is going to playout even if they do have goals.

If you think I am optimistic about the team then you aren't reading close enough. What I have said was, I don't know what they will do this offseason, but I am hopeful they do what I expect them to do which is replace Randy and if EG stays, he is either moved up or resigned for no more then two years. As for what they do with players, I'm even less clear on that as they probably are as well. I can speculate on their goals. They may even already have information on what the players want to do that we don't. They may have floated offers. I don't have that information. Has TA told them he is testing the waters first. I don't know. Has he said he wants to be back ? I haven't heard that. Has he gotten offers from other teams. Maybe, but that would be tampering.

Lots of unknowns this summer. GM, HC, players. There is a lot of stuff and I for one don't have all the inside information.

Other then your claim that I am optimistic, they rest of what you wrote pretty much echos my view though.

[hands11]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

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Nothing wrong with you taking that time frame except Ted has already said that's not the time frame he is focusing on. And I don't blame him. Just like a stock. How it performed 5 or 8 years ago isn't as important have how it has done the last 2-3 years or even shorter. Both time frames can be important based on changes in the business model, board, etc. but 2-3 is more important in this case. The board was chanced. The company was sold.

If you want to guess at what he might do, probably best to do it using the same time frame he is. Ted said he was looking at EG by mostly focusing on the time they have worked on this together. I expect he will reach back a little farther as a reference but he isn't weighting that stuff more then what they have done together while Ted leading and setting the plan.

That's what leads me to believe EG either gets moved up and they get a new GM, or EG get another two year and they get a new HC. We will see. Him replacing EG all together could happen as well. Even based on that shorter time frame. He did clean up his mess which was good, but the Maynor thing was a stinky one. So way a questionable draft.

I like most here will be pissed if they resign both and just keep it as is. That would be a pretty stale move.

We are about to learn a lot about how Ted is as an owner this summer.

[hands11]

The Okafor move was a break glass in case of emergency. Okafor showed up injured out of no where the last second. Yes, he had past injuries, but he played 79 game the previous season and looked healthy.

The issue I have with this is that frontcourt depth was a need in the offseason. Not just because the team was planning to rely heavily on 30+ year old big men -- one of whom (Nenê) has had a recent injury history (and a chronic injury) -- but because they had next to nothing after those 30+ year olds and Booker. No amount of wishing was going to turn Seraphin, Singleton or Vesely into good backups.

Had they addressed big man depth during the offseason, perhaps Okafor's injury wouldn't have been an emergency, and they could have been more measured and long-term in their approach.

Giving up a first was not ideal but it was a mid first and getting Wall to the playoffs was a priority.

A) Mid 1st round picks are potentially quite valuable -- especially in the hands of a skilled talent evaluator and drafter.

B) Why is "getting Wall to the playoffs" this season so important? He's locked up long-term, and (to me) putting quality players who can grow with him over the next few seasons would be a bigger priority. Especially since they could have made the playoffs in this incredibly weak conference without turning to 30+ year old veterans.

And Gortat has gotten Wall to be a better PG since Wall can now do PnR which he didn't have before Gortat. For this year, Gortat was a great addition. Will it be worth that first ? I don't think we have the answer to that yet. Depends on what happens this offseason and how much getting Wall playoff experience helps him. Its no ideal but not terrible either.

Sorta agree, sorta don't. Biggest thing Wall needed to do to be better at screen/roll was on him -- using the screen better and shooting better. Gortat can catch the ball and finish in traffic, which is nice. I don't think he's made Wall better, but rather that he's given Wall a partner.

Also that 2nd 2nd was a very low 2nd. Again, I didn't like what he did in the draft. I had a completely different strategy for them but I wanted to add those details. All the pieces connect though. What if they drafted Len and Wolters. What if it was Burke. Then maybe they don't trade Ves for Miller. What if they change coaches and Ves looks good in two year at only 25 after they signed him to vet min ? These are thing that are hard to fully value in on a year basis. Interesting debate though but hard to pin down right now.

For this season, it's pretty easy to pin down. We know what they did, and most of this season's results are in. The issue with the Rice trade wasn't that they gave up that late 2nd, it was that they traded away a guy in Wolters who had a 1st round grade and who would have filled a significant need. Had they just picked Wolters, they could have used the BAE on a big man (Dejuan Blair considered minimum salary offers from Dallas and Washington before choosing the Mavericks). They also could have used that 54th pick on someone like Zeke Marshall -- another guy with a late 1st round grade (in my system anyway) who ended up going undrafted.

As for Webster. I agreed with the signing. Capping it at 5M would have been nicer though as would have been making it a 3 year deal - 2 and an option. But we know EG doesn't get those kind of saving. That's one of the bad things about him. We never seem to get savings on resignings.

I was okay with the re-signing. It was full retail, and I didn't like that option on the fourth season. It does seem like Grunfeld doesn't negotiate contracts so much as award them. This past offseason, he quite literally paid every acquisition the maximum he possibly could.

- Maynor got the full BAE plus a player option on the second year
- Webster got the full MLE for three years plus a conditional 4th year that vests based on games played
- Wall got the maximum for the full 5 seasons possible

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

I personally felt it was important for him. Im pretty sure Ted felt that way. I know John felt that way. Was it more important then getting another younger mid round player ? Tough to answer that with a clear yes or no. You seem to think no. Me. I think it was worth a protected first that would turn into a mid level first if they made the playoffs. Specially since EG is marginal at best at drafting. Now with a different GM, maybe the pick is worth more. But still not clear to me it was worth Wall and Beal not making it to the playoff. Something I am far from clear would have happened without Gortat. Specially with Nene out now.

As for the Gortat effect on Wall. Could Wall have learned PnR without him? Maybe. But what I saw was he hadn't. Actually Wall was terrible as using picks let alone hitting a roll man off it. Also what I saw was it didn't take Wall long to add the PnR once Gortat arrived. Having an experienced PnR big clearly makes it a lot easier to learn. At least half the play or not more is the roll playing knowing how to set the pick, where, and then timing the roll, catching the pass and then scoring. Wall and Gortat where doing PnR just weeks after they started playing together. Coincidence or affect ? I can't prove it 100% but I think it easy to see Gortat has a lot to do with Wall learning to PnR so quickly after he was added. He was experienced at it. He made Wall part in it easy. Hell, Beal can even run it some now.

[dckingsfan]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

[lastemp3ror]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

That is a good question.

Let's look at the other past #1 picks that were not busts/mediocre and how long it took them to get into playoffs. I will start with the year 2000:

2000: Kenyon Martin- mediocre
2001: Kwame Brown- bust
2002: Yao Ming- made playoffs in his second year.
2003: Lebron James- made the playoffs in his third year
2004: Dwight Howard- made the playoffs in his third year
2005: Andrew Bogut- mediocre IMO
2006: Andrea Bargnani- mediocre IMO
2007: Greg Oden- bust
2008: Derrick Rose- made playoffs every year
2009: Blake Griffin- made playoffs in third year
2010: John Wall- made playoffs in fourth year (most likely)
2011: Kyrie Irving- never made the playoffs
2012: Anthony Davis- never made the playoffs (I think they will make it next year, his third year)

Of the past 13 years, 8 #1 picks were at least great players (yes, I am already counting Anthony Davis). Of those 8, outside of Kyrie Irving and John Wall, all of these great/superstar or potentially great/superstar players have made the playoffs in their third year or earlier. That is about a 75% rate.

So it begs two questions, is John Wall at least great, and if so, is Ernie that bad that even he held down Wall's potential by not building properly around him. I think John Wall is a borderline superstar that has a horrible GM. Yes it didn't help that John Wall was injured for a significant period of time in his third year, but still, as shown above most #1 picks that are great usually make the playoffs sooner rather than later.

[verbal8]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

But EG took over a team that would win 25 games and has built them into a team that will make the play-offs and likely win over 40 games. It only took him 10 years to do this(you can ignore all the losses along the way).

[closg00]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

Yeah, there is on poster in particular who goes through tortuous, circuitous lengths to lift Ernie to the level of 'average GM". No-matter how-many times his arguments are destroyed by the facts & stats.

[hands11]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

So is that the time frame you think Ted is using ?