Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

[dckingsfan]

hands, by your comments - you want EG to stick around. Cool.

Take the window since Wall was drafted in 2010 and he is still a bottom 5 GM. He is a worse GM than Witt is a coach. He is turrible. Flat out horrible. And no matter how you spin it, obfuscate it or rationalize it, he is still TURRIBLE

[closg00]

The Okafor move was a break glass in case of emergency. Okafor showed up injured out of no where the last second. Yes, he had past injuries, but he played 79 game the previous season and looked healthy.

The issue I have with this is that frontcourt depth was a need in the offseason. Not just because the team was planning to rely heavily on 30+ year old big men -- one of whom (Nenê) has had a recent injury history (and a chronic injury) -- but because they had next to nothing after those 30+ year olds and Booker. No amount of wishing was going to turn Seraphin, Singleton or Vesely into good backups.

Had they addressed big man depth during the offseason, perhaps Okafor's injury wouldn't have been an emergency, and they could have been more measured and long-term in their approach.

Giving up a first was not ideal but it was a mid first and getting Wall to the playoffs was a priority.

A) Mid 1st round picks are potentially quite valuable -- especially in the hands of a skilled talent evaluator and drafter.

B) Why is "getting Wall to the playoffs" this season so important? He's locked up long-term, and (to me) putting quality players who can grow with him over the next few seasons would be a bigger priority. Especially since they could have made the playoffs in this incredibly weak conference without turning to 30+ year old veterans.

And Gortat has gotten Wall to be a better PG since Wall can now do PnR which he didn't have before Gortat. For this year, Gortat was a great addition. Will it be worth that first ? I don't think we have the answer to that yet. Depends on what happens this offseason and how much getting Wall playoff experience helps him. Its no ideal but not terrible either.

Sorta agree, sorta don't. Biggest thing Wall needed to do to be better at screen/roll was on him -- using the screen better and shooting better. Gortat can catch the ball and finish in traffic, which is nice. I don't think he's made Wall better, but rather that he's given Wall a partner.

Also that 2nd 2nd was a very low 2nd. Again, I didn't like what he did in the draft. I had a completely different strategy for them but I wanted to add those details. All the pieces connect though. What if they drafted Len and Wolters. What if it was Burke. Then maybe they don't trade Ves for Miller. What if they change coaches and Ves looks good in two year at only 25 after they signed him to vet min ? These are thing that are hard to fully value in on a year basis. Interesting debate though but hard to pin down right now.

For this season, it's pretty easy to pin down. We know what they did, and most of this season's results are in. The issue with the Rice trade wasn't that they gave up that late 2nd, it was that they traded away a guy in Wolters who had a 1st round grade and who would have filled a significant need. Had they just picked Wolters, they could have used the BAE on a big man (Dejuan Blair considered minimum salary offers from Dallas and Washington before choosing the Mavericks). They also could have used that 54th pick on someone like Zeke Marshall -- another guy with a late 1st round grade (in my system anyway) who ended up going undrafted.

As for Webster. I agreed with the signing. Capping it at 5M would have been nicer though as would have been making it a 3 year deal - 2 and an option. But we know EG doesn't get those kind of saving. That's one of the bad things about him. We never seem to get savings on resignings.

I was okay with the re-signing. It was full retail, and I didn't like that option on the fourth season. It does seem like Grunfeld doesn't negotiate contracts so much as award them. This past offseason, he quite literally paid every acquisition the maximum he possibly could.

- Maynor got the full BAE plus a player option on the second year
- Webster got the full MLE for three years plus a conditional 4th year that vests based on games played
- Wall got the maximum for the full 5 seasons possible

Okafor and or Nene going down to injury was predicted and the guys here were waiving the red flag begging Ernie to take a big in the draft or find an FA. Grunfeld once-again burns a very valuable 1st round pick for a 1-year rental because he didn't do what any board-member would have done. Horrible management

"Grunfeld doesn't negotiate contracts so much as award them" OUCH! that is sig-worthy my friend.

[verbal8]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

So is that the time frame you think Ted is using ?

He should be, but is probably using the last 2 years.

I think there is a chance that money gets EG fired.
Attendance - declining on a relative basis(ranking among teams)
Blatche - $14 million plus, zero production
Okafor/Gortat - good production, but nearly $30 million over 2 years plus a mid draft pick which should probably be valued at $5 million plus
Nene - decent production but cost $26 million over 2 years
Vesely - about $4 million for little production
Maynor - $4 million, zero production
Miller/Webster - this season "a push" based on production and cost

Only Ariza, Booker and Wall have significantly out-performed decent size contracts, also notice none of these contracts were negotiated by EG.

one year of Webster on a bargain and 200 minutes of Gooden, don't really put a dent in this overspending/under-performing

[dckingsfan]

You can't be an average GM over ten years winning one playoff series during that time. I don't care what he's done recently because that hasn't been that great either. I love it when people say the wizards have been mediocre over time. They can only aspire to such lofty heights.

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

Yeah, there is on poster in particular who goes through tortuous, circuitous lengths to lift Ernie to the level of 'average GM". No-matter how-many times his arguments are destroyed by the facts & stats.

And tortuous argumentation it is - I like that this thread just continues to bury EG though. When you really start to analyze his tenure - it becomes almost laughable at how bad EG really has been.

And this board is nearly 20 to 1 against keeping EG - which is a pretty overwhelming stat.

[hands11]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

That is a good question.

Let's look at the other past #1 picks that were not busts/mediocre and how long it took them to get into playoffs. I will start with the year 2000:

2000: Kenyon Martin- mediocre
2001: Kwame Brown- bust
2002: Yao Ming- made playoffs in his second year.
2003: Lebron James- made the playoffs in his third year
2004: Dwight Howard- made the playoffs in his third year
2005: Andrew Bogut- mediocre IMO
2006: Andrea Bargnani- mediocre IMO
2007: Greg Oden- bust
2008: Derrick Rose- made playoffs every year
2009: Blake Griffin- made playoffs in third year
2010: John Wall- made playoffs in fourth year (most likely)
2011: Kyrie Irving- never made the playoffs
2012: Anthony Davis- never made the playoffs (I think they will make it next year, his third year)

Of the past 13 years, 8 #1 picks were at least great players (yes, I am already counting Anthony Davis). Of those 8, outside of Kyrie Irving and John Wall, all of these great/superstar or potentially great/superstar players have made the playoffs in their third year or earlier. That is about a 75% rate.

So it begs two questions, is John Wall at least great, and if so, is Ernie that bad that even he held down Wall's potential by not building properly around him. I think John Wall is a borderline superstar that has a horrible GM. Yes it didn't help that John Wall was injured for a significant period of time in his third year, but still, as shown above most #1 picks that are great usually make the playoffs sooner rather than later.

I would have guessed something like that but its nice to see the data. Thanks for putting that together.

I think that helps support the idea of what why it was important for Wall to get there this year. As for why he didn't get there sooner, you would have to look at those franchises one by one and see what the situations were. What was the condition of the franchise when the player arrived. Who was the coach. How many coaching changes. Did they have a decent or good coach? What about injuries ?

For the Wizards, we know Wall showed up just after gun gate and the Wizards were not only crushed by that structurally but strapped with his worst in the league contract that kept them from making moves. That was a cement brick around their ankles as they had to get that cleaned up. We cleaning up a contract like that isn't done in a year. Gil is still getting paid by Orl. Then not only did Wall have that injury last year but the team as a whole had a ton of injuries. Well look at Denver. Injury can crush a teams playoff hopes. I think without the Wall injury and Nene, etc. etc. they would have made the playoffs last year as we are seeing them do this year. Gortat for Okafor was a sideways more that cost a future asset. Otto and Glen havn't really played ( see injury and Randy ). Maynor over Price wasn't an upgrade but now Miller is here and he is an upgrade over Price. They lost Ves but have Gooden. This years team is close to last years team. There wasn't a hug upgrade in on court talent except now they have Gooden who was just recently added. We haven't been able to see them with Gooden, Nene and Gortat. The big asset they spent was for Otto and that hasn't been cashed in yet. So as the roster stands now, when Nene returns, I think they are better then last years team. But we haven't seen that team yet.

I see Cleveland in a similar situation and you see them trying the same kind of moves. They started to add vets to help Kyrie get there. They added Deng and Jarrett Jack and Spencer Hawes and took at chance on Bynam. I expect they will be very pressed to get Kyrie to the playoff next year. Just like the Wizards were to get Wall there this year.

[dckingsfan]

One more tortuous obfuscation... just look at the moves since Wall was drafted. Turrible.

[gtn130]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

I personally felt it was important for him. Im pretty sure Ted felt that way. I know John felt that way.

Yeah I don't really understand this "Wall needs the playoffs" argument. Looking at past #1 overall picks and when they made the playoffs seems really arbitrary. What can we even conclude from that?

There are countless examples of good players who didn't make the playoffs for a while and ended up doing just fine for themselves. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't without their flaws, but any team in the NBA would love to have them. Without CP3, Blake Griffin wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs at this point.

How quickly they make the playoffs holds little bearing on how their careers turn out IMO. I don't think anyone can actually explicitly articulate how experiencing the playoffs directly improves/benefits X or Y player -- or why this is magnified for #1 overall picks (???). I don't think Wall or Wittman or Leonsis vaguely stating that making the playoffs is important for Wall actually validates anything. It just seems like a really ambiguous thing that can't be quantified or even explained.

[Upper Decker]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

I personally felt it was important for him. Im pretty sure Ted felt that way. I know John felt that way.

Yeah I don't really understand this "Wall needs the playoffs" argument. Looking at past #1 overall picks and when they made the playoffs seems really arbitrary. What can we even conclude from that?

There are countless examples of good players who didn't make the playoffs for a while and ended up doing just fine for themselves. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't without their flaws, but any team in the NBA would love to have them. Without CP3, Blake Griffin wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs at this point.

How quickly they make the playoffs holds little bearing on how their careers turn out IMO. I don't think anyone can actually explicitly articulate how experiencing the playoffs directly improves/benefits X or Y player -- or why this is magnified for #1 overall picks (???). I don't think Wall or Wittman or Leonsis vaguely stating that making the playoffs is important for Wall actually validates anything. It just seems like a really ambiguous thing that can't be quantified or even explained.

This is a great point. How did the playoffs help mature Arenas or Blatche? How did the playoffs make Jamison or Butler better defenders? This notion that first round playoff experience is such a load of S***. It's like the argument that Orioles fans use when annointing Weiters some great catcher because he "handles the pitching staff well." What the heck does that mean?

[TGW]

Turd wants to make the playoffs because he needs a reason to raise ticket prices. I think having Wall make the playoffs is a distant second as far as reasons to make the playoffs. I also think putting a good team around Wall is MUCH more important than getting him to the playoffs.

[Ruzious]

The Bucks made the playoffs last season, and it didn't help the young players develop even a little bit. Getting destroyed by Miami wasn't a great experience. And young talented bigs Sanders and Henson have regressed since then.

[nate33]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

I personally felt it was important for him. Im pretty sure Ted felt that way. I know John felt that way.

Yeah I don't really understand this "Wall needs the playoffs" argument. Looking at past #1 overall picks and when they made the playoffs seems really arbitrary. What can we even conclude from that?

There are countless examples of good players who didn't make the playoffs for a while and ended up doing just fine for themselves. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't without their flaws, but any team in the NBA would love to have them. Without CP3, Blake Griffin wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs at this point.

How quickly they make the playoffs holds little bearing on how their careers turn out IMO. I don't think anyone can actually explicitly articulate how experiencing the playoffs directly improves/benefits X or Y player -- or why this is magnified for #1 overall picks (???). I don't think Wall or Wittman or Leonsis vaguely stating that making the playoffs is important for Wall actually validates anything. It just seems like a really ambiguous thing that can't be quantified or even explained.

It's simple:

Step 1: Get Wall to the playoffs at all costs. Mortgage the future, saddle the roster with bad contracts. It doesn't matter. JUST GET TO THE 1ST ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS!

Step 2: ???

Step 3: Championship.


Just gotta figure out Step 2 and we'll be fine. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

[Zonkerbl]

Why was it so important to get Wall to the playoffs ? Because this would be his 4th year in a row not in the playoffs and he was the #1 pick. His first four years in the league that he wouldn't have made it there. Playoff basketball as you know is an entirely different level. He needs to experience that early in his career if he is to maximize his game.

Leads to a good question. How many great players didn't get to the playoff in their first four years ? How many great #1 picks didn't get to the playoffs the first 4 years ?

That is a good question.

Let's look at the other past #1 picks that were not busts/mediocre and how long it took them to get into playoffs. I will start with the year 2000:

2000: Kenyon Martin- mediocre
2001: Kwame Brown- bust
2002: Yao Ming- made playoffs in his second year.
2003: Lebron James- made the playoffs in his third year
2004: Dwight Howard- made the playoffs in his third year
2005: Andrew Bogut- mediocre IMO
2006: Andrea Bargnani- mediocre IMO
2007: Greg Oden- bust
2008: Derrick Rose- made playoffs every year
2009: Blake Griffin- made playoffs in third year
2010: John Wall- made playoffs in fourth year (most likely)
2011: Kyrie Irving- never made the playoffs
2012: Anthony Davis- never made the playoffs (I think they will make it next year, his third year)

Of the past 13 years, 8 #1 picks were at least great players (yes, I am already counting Anthony Davis). Of those 8, outside of Kyrie Irving and John Wall, all of these great/superstar or potentially great/superstar players have made the playoffs in their third year or earlier. That is about a 75% rate.

So it begs two questions, is John Wall at least great, and if so, is Ernie that bad that even he held down Wall's potential by not building properly around him. I think John Wall is a borderline superstar that has a horrible GM. Yes it didn't help that John Wall was injured for a significant period of time in his third year, but still, as shown above most #1 picks that are great usually make the playoffs sooner rather than later.

Interesting, but if Wall hadn't gotten injured last year, they probably would have made the playoffs. Not sure if this says anything useful besides "stay healthy!"

[hands11]

Yep, no doubt a bottom 5 GM over the last 10 years - you could debate where on the bottom 5 he is ... but he is still a bottom 5.

The defense of EG has to be obfuscation not a look at the facts, his draft picks or his winning percentage. The only way to justify his tenure is too look at how well he cleaned up the messes of his own making.

So is that the time frame you think Ted is using ?

He should be, but is probably using the last 2 years.

I think there is a chance that money gets EG fired.
Attendance - declining on a relative basis(ranking among teams)
Blatche - $14 million plus, zero production
Okafor/Gortat - good production, but nearly $30 million over 2 years plus a mid draft pick which should probably be valued at $5 million plus
Nene - decent production but cost $26 million over 2 years
Vesely - about $4 million for little production
Maynor - $2 million, zero production
Miller/Webster - this season "a push" based on production and cost

Only Ariza, Booker and Wall have significantly out-performed decent size contracts, also notice none of these contracts were negotiated by EG.

one year of Webster on a bargain and 200 minutes of Gooden, don't really put a dent in this overspending/under-performing

Well then we agree on the smaller time frame he is likely using. But not two years, it going on 4 years since Ted bought the team. Jun 9, 2010

[dckingsfan]

OK, timeframe since Ted bought the team. The 2011 draft alone should have got EG fired. It really doesn't matter the timeframe. He is a TURRIBLE GM.

There is no amount of obfuscation that can bring him out of the bottom of the GM ranks. He is worse GM than Wittman is a coach - and that isn't easy to do.

TURRIBLE!

[rockymac52]

As for the Gortat effect on Wall. Could Wall have learned PnR without him? Maybe. But what I saw was he hadn't. Actually Wall was terrible as using picks let alone hitting a roll man off it. Also what I saw was it didn't take Wall long to add the PnR once Gortat arrived. Having an experienced PnR big clearly makes it a lot easier to learn. At least half the play or not more is the roll playing knowing how to set the pick, where, and then timing the roll, catching the pass and then scoring. Wall and Gortat where doing PnR just weeks after they started playing together. Coincidence or affect ? I can't prove it 100% but I think it easy to see Gortat has a lot to do with Wall learning to PnR so quickly after he was added. He was experienced at it. He made Wall part in it easy. Hell, Beal can even run it some now.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I agree with the general concept that adding a big man who is great in the pick and roll would obviously help Wall or any other PG perform better in the pick and roll, but in reality, I'm not sure Wall has actually gotten any better in the pick and roll this season. Here are some synergy stats for Wall to illustrate my point:

Pick and Roll Ball Handler's Offense:
2013: .79 PPP (64th %)
2014: .75 PPP (46th %)

Wall's efficiency when taking the shot in the PnR has actually slightly decreased, and he's now technically below average this season.

Pick and Roll Ball Handler's Passes to the Roll Man:
2013: .88 PPP (31st %) (48% of his passes in PnR go to the roll man, as opposed to spot up shooters or cutters)
2014: .93 PPP (38th %) (40% of his passes in PnR go to the roll man)

Wall has seen a slight increase in his efficiency when passing to the roll man, but he's actually looking to pass to the big man less frequently. Overall, these changes are probably negligible, and regardless, he's soundly below average in terms of efficiency when passing to the roll man.

Gortat's Offense as the Pick and Roll Man:
2013 (with Dragic): 1.16 PPP (82nd %)
2014 (with Wall): 1.03 PPP (59th %)

To be fair, you could look at this two ways: Gortat's stats got worse because Wall isn't as good of a distributor in the PnR as Dragic, or Gortat stats got worse because he got worse (or both).

Just some food for thought. Personally I'm not seeing much improvement in the PnR, either as the scorer or passer, from Wall, DESPITE now having one of the league's best pick and roll men in Gortat instead of one of the league's worst pick and roll men in Okafor (Okafor's PnR stats from 2013: .78 PPP (16th %)).

[hands11]

Thanks for the stats. Interesting stuff.

Lots to evaluate about a PnR. Specially when PnR includes Pick and Pop.

With Wall and Gortat, I can see he runs it a lot more then before and his passes off the bounce to Gortat look better then what I saw him do before. Not even sure he used to bounce pass to the roller all that often before Gortat.

That is what I was mostly describing. My eyes see the difference. Wall has added some PnR skills I didn't see before. Now what would help him is a Pick and Pop player cuz that can lead to 3 balls and that would raise the PPP. So many options on this set. Pick and Roll bounce pass. Pick and Roll lop. PnR skip pass. PnR shoot or drive. PnR pop for a 3 or mid range, etc. Gortats pops are only mid range shots.

But since you showed an interest in PnR numbers, I found this.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/02/2 ... -the-suns/

Lots of moving parts and lots to digest.

And this which I am reading now.
http://nba.si.com/2014/01/07/the-fundam ... -and-roll/

[nate33]

It would be nice to see that pnr data exclusively when Nene is off the court.

[Dat2U]

As for the Gortat effect on Wall. Could Wall have learned PnR without him? Maybe. But what I saw was he hadn't. Actually Wall was terrible as using picks let alone hitting a roll man off it. Also what I saw was it didn't take Wall long to add the PnR once Gortat arrived. Having an experienced PnR big clearly makes it a lot easier to learn. At least half the play or not more is the roll playing knowing how to set the pick, where, and then timing the roll, catching the pass and then scoring. Wall and Gortat where doing PnR just weeks after they started playing together. Coincidence or affect ? I can't prove it 100% but I think it easy to see Gortat has a lot to do with Wall learning to PnR so quickly after he was added. He was experienced at it. He made Wall part in it easy. Hell, Beal can even run it some now.

I'm not sure I agree with this. I agree with the general concept that adding a big man who is great in the pick and roll would obviously help Wall or any other PG perform better in the pick and roll, but in reality, I'm not sure Wall has actually gotten any better in the pick and roll this season. Here are some synergy stats for Wall to illustrate my point:

Pick and Roll Ball Handler's Offense:
2013: .79 PPP (64th %)
2014: .75 PPP (46th %)

Wall's efficiency when taking the shot in the PnR has actually slightly decreased, and he's now technically below average this season.

Pick and Roll Ball Handler's Passes to the Roll Man:
2013: .88 PPP (31st %) (48% of his passes in PnR go to the roll man, as opposed to spot up shooters or cutters)
2014: .93 PPP (38th %) (40% of his passes in PnR go to the roll man)

Wall has seen a slight increase in his efficiency when passing to the roll man, but he's actually looking to pass to the big man less frequently. Overall, these changes are probably negligible, and regardless, he's soundly below average in terms of efficiency when passing to the roll man.

Gortat's Offense as the Pick and Roll Man:
2013 (with Dragic): 1.16 PPP (82nd %)
2014 (with Wall): 1.03 PPP (59th %)

To be fair, you could look at this two ways: Gortat's stats got worse because Wall isn't as good of a distributor in the PnR as Dragic, or Gortat stats got worse because he got worse (or both).

Just some food for thought. Personally I'm not seeing much improvement in the PnR, either as the scorer or passer, from Wall, DESPITE now having one of the league's best pick and roll men in Gortat instead of one of the league's worst pick and roll men in Okafor (Okafor's PnR stats from 2013: .78 PPP (16th %)).

I don't think you can blame it all on Wall or assume Gortat has declined. The Wizards simply lack the ideal spacing the effectively run the P&R, unless they go small. I think it's gotten a little better with Nene out and they can run it more and more effectively, but when Nene & Booker have been getting the bulk of minutes at PF, defenses simply don't respect either as an outside threat and it's much harder to execute.

[Nivek]

The screen/roll analysis is interesting, but it's one tree in the proverbial forest. Wall has been doing some things better this season, and some other things about the same as he's always done them. The net effect is a fairly modest improvement in his overall production. And it's the overall production that matters most, because it's TOTAL impact that matters when looking at what causes winning and losing.

To be blunt, the "let's get Player X so that we can run Play A with Player Y" is wrong track anyway. For example, one of the major pieces of logic the Wizards used when they signed Darius Songaila (remember that?) was that he would be a good pick-and-pop partner with Antonio Daniels. I'm not sure they ever ran pick-and-pop with those two -- if they did, it wasn't a staple of their bench offense.

[rockymac52]

The screen/roll analysis is interesting, but it's one tree in the proverbial forest. Wall has been doing some things better this season, and some other things about the same as he's always done them. The net effect is a fairly modest improvement in his overall production. And it's the overall production that matters most, because it's TOTAL impact that matters when looking at what causes winning and losing.

To be blunt, the "let's get Player X so that we can run Play A with Player Y" is wrong track anyway. For example, one of the major pieces of logic the Wizards used when they signed Darius Songaila (remember that?) was that he would be a good pick-and-pop partner with Antonio Daniels. I'm not sure they ever ran pick-and-pop with those two -- if they did, it wasn't a staple of their bench offense.

Absolutely agree. But with that said, Andre Miller and Marcin Gortat should make for a truly spectacular PnR combo.