Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[hands11]

With the CBA rules in the NBA, to be title contenders, team must either find free production or be willing to pay the luxury tax. To understand what I mean by free production consider the Miami Heat with Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Heat pay those 3 players approximately $56 million. However, in a free market, to replace their production, an NBA team would have to pay considerably more to replace those 3 players. Hence, the Miami Heat are getting free production from those 3 players. If your team can't find that kind of free production, its only alternative is to pay the luxury tax. The problem with paying the luxury tax is that the team ends up paying more than the production is worth.

Paying the luxury tax is out of EG's realm of responsibility. If Ted wants to pay the luxury tax, the Wizards might have a shot to be title contenders. If Ted doesn't want to pay the luxury tax, the only way the Wizards can be title contenders is if they find players who can generate free production. This is EG's responsibility, and he has utterly failed in spite of having numerous resources. At this point, the only 3 viable options for the Wizards getting free production are from John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter. Only John Wall has come close to showing that potential, and regardless, all three players fell in the Wizards lap, and EG provided nothing of value in acquiring these players.

I went back in the thread before the recent ... whatever you want to call it... happened and there was some good stuff.

Looks like we might have found that free production you spoke of in Mr Gooden.

If he resigns for vet min, he still makes 6.7M next year. That's 6M of free production.
Wall was free production this year. He is currently playing at higher then 7.5M

But we are over paying in other places. Miller at 5M is overpaying. But he is worth 3-4M. He is 4.6M in 2014 Webster at 5M is overpaying. But part of that is because he is TA insurance and because TA is now starting at SG. So that makes some sense. Otto is red shirting and that costing them 4.3M to do that. But that's tied into TA and Webster situation. But now Gooden is balancing that out some.

If Gooden stays, he really helps change how the books balance. Webster, TA and Otto can get worked out next year. They have a lot invested there right now but they are paying for flexibility to move value later depending on what happens with TA. So in a snap shot its to much but there is more to the situation than that and it can get worked out before the trade deadline.

They actually could make this work pretty well now that they have Gooden and Miller. A back up PG and a vet front court stretch player is what they needed.

Now if Okafor returns he adds the extra post presence defense that is missing and gives them more depth. And since he would be returning from another injury, he will most like be on a 1 year low ball contract like Webster was. More Free Production.

This is what we were waiting to be able to do. Attract free production. Its the benefit of not sucking. Gooden wouldn't play here before and now we could get him on a Free Production contract.

Between Gooden and Okafor, they would have 10M of free production. MLE value 2x est.

That team could actually make some noise. Wall year 5 after playoff expense should be ready to lead it. That why getting him there this year was so important. Miller as his back up. Nene, Gortat, Gooden and Okafor is a formidable front court. They just have to figure out the SG and SF slots. They have to find Beal his Miller. Is that Webster or if they can sign TA do they trade Webster for a vet SG with better handles ? And some FA we don't expect will want to join for vet min. Something like AH but better. Right now, I think the key finishing piece is that back up SG slot and Beal making the year 3 leap.

They have a good chance to put together a good team next year that can contend. One that would project to get out of the first round from the start of the year which is all any good team gets except the proven best like recent title teams. And as important to me as a fan, it would be a team of players I like would enjoy cheering for.

All you get in the NBA are 1-3 year windows. If you can do more than that, you are a dynasty.

First things first.

[hands11]

IMO, the reason that EG supporters and EG haters have such a difficult time getting each other to see one another's POV is that EG supporters are judging EG based upon the outputs and the short term, whereas EG haters are judging EG based upon the inputs and the long term. What I mean by inputs is what EG has put into the team (the moves he has made), while the outputs are what are the results of EG's actions (ie, the team's record).

Since the Wizards are currently playing the pretty good basketball, as far as the EG supporters that is sufficient to prove that EG has done a good job, and there is nothing that the EG haters are going to be able to say to make them understand why they want him gone.

As far as the EG haters are concerned, you have to look past the team's current record and project where the Wizards will be in the future. As far as they are concerned, EG has made some nice move getting the Wizards to play decent basketball in the short term, but almost all of his moves to improve the team for the long run have been failures.

Trading for Miller, Ariza, Nene, and Gortat, plus signing Webster and Gooden have been pretty decent moves to help the Wizards for the short term. However, other than the Webster signing, for the long term, all of the moves are pretty inconsequential. Additionally to make those moves, EG has cost the Wizards draft picks, the BAE, and cap space. Combine that with all of his blown draft picks, and the EG haters have a hard time accepting that EG can make smart moves that will help the Wizards for the long term.

To me, EG's recent short term "success" is akin to his short term success during the Arenas, Jamison, Butler years. At that time, he went all in by trading our top pick for two older vets who were not going to get us anything more than a mediocre record and a playoff birth. Once again, with the Gortat trade, EG sacrifices our future for short term mediocre gain and a playoff birth. Its deja vu all over again and I am confident it will eventually end the same way.

EG's record speaks for itself. As Jim said, third worst winning percentage in the last decade, no more than 45 wins during that time period, and numerous blown draft picks. I don't know why you guys even respond to Millie's posts. He is obviously alone or virtually alone in his views. You aren't going to convince him his is wrong. Why bother?

I think this team is built better then that team was so I don't see it as the same. Its hard to really compare Apples and Apple just yet. Beal is still just a 2nd year player at starting SG. That other team was Gil, CB and AJ based. Gil as a 4th year player was the youngest of that core. I see this build are more balanced to me.

Wall, Beal, TA, Nene, Gortat with Miller, Webster, Gooden with Otto still in the wings.

This one has players more traditional to their positions. True PG with a pure shooting SG. And better post players. I'll take Nene and Gortat at PF and Center over AJ and Haywood. Then its down to CB vs TA.

I'll take this team and where I project it to be next year.

[dckingsfan]

Ted's plan. Is this team as currently constructed on the path to winning a championship. Not sure that plan would pass the test.

[DCZards]

Ted's plan. Is this team as currently constructed on the path to winning a championship. Not sure that plan would pass the test.

The answer to your question is probably no. But you can probably count on one hand the # of NBA teams "constructed on the path to winning a championship." It is not an easy thing to do.

[dckingsfan]

Ted's plan. Is this team as currently constructed on the path to winning a championship. Not sure that plan would pass the test.

The answer to your question is probably no. But you can probably count on one hand the # of NBA teams "constructed on the path to winning a championship." It is not an easy thing to do.

Hmmm, can't disagree with that sentiment. Do you agree with the following?

Have a plan and are close:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Indiana, LA Clippers, Miami, Houston

I think they have a plan and seem to be moving in the right direction:
Portland, Golden State, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago

Tanking and in the rebuild (although could be perpetual):
Boston, Utah, Orlando, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA Lakers

Seem to have a plan to get respectable:
Memphis, Toronto, Washington

Not much of a plan:
Brooklyn, Minnesota, Charlotte, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento

[DCZards]

Have a plan and are close:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Indiana, LA Clippers, Miami, Houston

I would not include any of these teams in the "building a contender" category. These teams have already been built to contend. It's no longer about a plan for them. Note that these teams are made up of the top players in the NBA...without fail..and in most cases there's at least two great players on each team.

Duncan, Parker and Ginobli are getting old so I would not include SA with the others as far as the future is concerned.

I think they have a plan and seem to be moving in the right direction:
Portland, Golden State, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago

Some good teams on the list. Don't know if there are any champions but Portland and GS would certainly possibly be in the discussion. Note that these teams are a mix of good young players and experienced vets (a la GS with youngins' Curry and Thompson, supported by Bogut, Iggy, Blake and Lee ). Not a lot unlike, Wall and Beal being supported by Gortat, Ariza, Webster, Miller and Gooden.)

Not sure that I'm putting Phoenix in this group just yet.

Chicago's "plan" depends on Rose's return. Otherwise, they're good but not a championship team, imo.

And Dallas is more like San Antonio in that they've won a championship and their best player is on the downside of his career. Not much of future plan in Dallas that I've seen yet.

Seem to have a plan to get respectable:
Memphis, Toronto, Washington

A plan of being "respectable" is one way to look at it...but a stroke of good luck (like the Zards signing Durant in 2016 ) can put a team over the hump into championship contender. Otherwise, you're right. The "plan" has limitations for these teams.

Not much of a plan:
Brooklyn, Minnesota, Charlotte, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento

The fact that the largest # of teams are in this category makes my original point---it's hard to build a championship contender. Although, NO with Davis has a good chance of moving up. Davis is special. Again--superstars--moreso than plans--rule.

[dckingsfan]

Have a plan and are close:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Indiana, LA Clippers, Miami, Houston

I would not include any of these teams in the "building a contender" category. These teams have already been built to contend. It's no longer about a plan for them. Note that these teams are made up of the top players in the NBA...without fail..and in most cases there's at least two great players on each team.

Duncan, Parker and Ginobli are getting old so I would not include SA with the others as far as the future is concerned.

Yep, you are right - had a plan and are contending would be a better description, agreed?

[dckingsfan]

Think they have a plan and seem to be moving in the right direction:
Portland, Golden State, Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago

Some good teams on the list. Don't know if there are any champions but Portland and GS would certainly possibly be in the discussion. Note that these teams are a mix of good young players and experienced vets (a la GS with youngins' Curry and Thompson, supported by Bogut, Iggy, Blake and Lee ). Not a lot unlike, Wall and Beal being supported by Gortat, Ariza, Webster, Miller and Gooden.)

Not sure that I'm putting Phoenix in this group just yet.

Chicago's "plan" depends on Rose's return. Otherwise, they're good but not a championship team, imo.

And Dallas is more like San Antonio in that they've won a championship and their best player is on the downside of his career. Not much of future plan in Dallas that I've seen yet.

Phoenix has how many draft picks and how much capspace and they are already playing .603 ball - hence why I think they have a plan. That and they brought in a nice coach to bring them along.

Chicago also has two first round draft picks, has the MLE and can amnesty Boozer if they choose. And yes, part of the plan is for Rose to return.

The Warriors are playing .625 ball. But yes, I have to agree with you.

Dallas is also playing near .600 ball. They have only 25M committed next year and you know there owner will compete financially for the best players. So, I think they belong in this group.

[dckingsfan]

Seem to have a plan to get respectable:
Memphis, Toronto, Washington

A plan of being "respectable" is one way to look at it...but a stroke of good luck (like the Zards signing Durant in 2016 ) can put a team over the hump into championship contender. Otherwise, you're right. The "plan" has limitations for these teams.

Agreed, they need to luck into something special... but I wouldn't call that a plan.

[dckingsfan]

Not much of a plan:
Brooklyn, Minnesota, Charlotte, New Orleans, Denver, Atlanta, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento

The fact that the largest # of teams are in this category makes my original point---it's hard to build a championship contender. Although, NO with Davis has a good chance of moving up. Davis is special. Again--superstars--moreso than plans--rule.

You make a valid point - more teams don't have plans that do have plans.

Superstars can jumpstart you - but you still need to be patient. I think NO is case in point. Gordon, Evans, Holiday and Anderson aren't going to take youto the promised land... They could still add a player or two... but I think that they will have to luck into it now rather than beat the door down with a good plan.

[Kanyewest]

Bethesda is a nice place to live but it's also completely possible that Gooden moved near DC because the Wizards were perhaps the only team that considered picking him up.

Or because --no shxt-- his girlfriend teaches hot yoga in Bethesda and he was bored as hell so he was working out with her.

He only played 16 games last season because of injuries and the Bucks' youth movement, and the eight months between his release and joining the Wizards was more than enough time to plump up and fall out of shape. But Gooden made sure he was good to go.

"You could say it was 18 months of not really being in an NBA game," Gooden said. "It was a good time off for my body to recover, but you do a lot of soul searching during that time off. You're on your own schedule, so you have to work."

He did much of his training in Bethesda, Md., so close to the Wizards and their facilities yet still so far from his past basketball life. His girlfriend introduced him to hot yoga, which quickly became a regular part of his routine. His hardwood work took place at the University of Maryland.

"I just worked on my game, continued to shoot," Gooden said. "I shot the ball every day, to the point where I wasn't missing anymore. I knew that once I got an opportunity that whoever signed me was going to be happy with what they were getting."

And:

Gooden had vowed to "sink his teeth into" what, all of a sudden, was a lifeboat of a chance in Washington to resurrect his career. After the Bucks had amnestied him last summer, Gooden, a former lottery pick, spent eight months waiting for someone to sign him. He's been in Bethesda, just north of the city, working out -- not at one of D.C.'s great indoor or outdoor courts, but at an L.A. Fitness.
The No. 4 overall pick in the 2002 Draft, Gooden, along with Pau Gasol and Shane Battier, were Memphis' building blocks while guys like Wes Person, Tony Massenburg and the late Lorenzen Wright were the wily vets. That seems so long ago. Now Gooden is one of the old heads.

He took up bikram yoga while he waited for the call, not believing he didn't have anything left to contribute.
"I have a passion for this game," Gooden said. "Every day I woke up, I knew that there were guys playing in NBA games, that guys were working out. So I had a dark cloud over my head, knowing that I had to be on my own schedule. I had to do something every day."

Good stuff... maybe Ernie and Drew Gooden met in a yoga class. Perhaps their eyes met in a downward dog pose and Ernie & company decided to save on airfare to fill out the roster.

[closg00]

The troll thread now has more pages than the Fire Ernie thread.

[tontoz]

This team doesn't even have a plan to get to 50 wins, something that hasn't happened since the 70s.

[dckingsfan]

The troll thread now has more pages than the Fire Ernie thread.

I think the two threads have become one in the same... it has just brought how bad a job EG has done (regardless of the period you choose) to the forefront.

I personally think that is a good thing.

[closg00]

The troll thread now has more pages than the Fire Ernie thread.

I think the two threads have become one in the same... it has just brought how bad a job EG has done (regardless of the period you choose) to the forefront.

I personally think that is a good thing.

I believe that the target audience for the other thread is same effort that has been underway for awhile over at Mike Lee's blog, the casual fan. The casual fan who doesn't follow the team closely, but who may occasionally buy tix for a game and read an article here-and-there. That's the target, keep those folks thinking all is well. Keep buying those tix.

[dckingsfan]

The troll thread now has more pages than the Fire Ernie thread.

I think the two threads have become one in the same... it has just brought how bad a job EG has done (regardless of the period you choose) to the forefront.

I personally think that is a good thing.

I believe that the target audience for the other thread is same effort that has been underway for awhile over at Mike Lee's blog, the casual fan. The casual fan who doesn't follow the team closely, but who may occasionally buy tix for a game and read an article here-and-there. That's the target, keep those folks thinking all is well. Keep buy those tix.

You could very well be right... but then they have failed in that thread - it went to deep. The dissection of EG's tenure has been damning.

[dckingsfan]

Charlotte is now within two games... we definitely need to beat them on our homecourt now...

Question: Does the 7th seed still get EG an extension?

[dckingsfan]

Just a place mark, we don't want to lose this.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10708 ... e-rankings

[verbal8]

Just a place mark, we don't want to lose this.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10708 ... e-rankings

And EG might be dragging them down to 26th. Other than the Nets being 15th, that list looks pretty accurate.

[closg00]

[quote="dckingsfan"]Seem to have a plan to get respectable:
Memphis, Toronto, Washington

For 1-year anyway.