Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[Nivek]

The alleged improvement of Monta Ellis is one of the most oversold stories of the NBA this season.

The notion that Kevin Love is a "Carmelo Anthony" type is pretty absurd too. Love is a lot more like the other Minnesota PF named Kevin.

[Hidden Eye]

Idk about you guys but I'd trade Webster and Nene this year. Nene for a Young Center or PF/C combo

Gotta get Websters stock up for the playoffs cuz u know who would take that contract

[nate33]

I don't really buy that Minny is losing because the players around Love are so bad. They're certainly not uniquely bad--bad enough to explain how a team with a PF who many consider the fifth best player in the league isn't winning. Would Minnesota trade rosters with Dallas or Phoenix? With Memphis? With Toronto or Chicago sans Derrick Rose? You know they absolutely wouldn't trade with us. They've got a very good foundation--a special PG and two top notch big men who are both among the best and most productive players at their position in the league. They should absolutely be winning a lot more than they're losing off of Love and Pekovic alone. That's a formula that has almost never not worked before.

I disagree. Yes, Love and Pekovic are both good, but they're not complementary because neither are rim protectors and neither are mobile. Also, Pekovic can only operate in the post, but since he doesn't pass well, he can't make use of Love's floor stretching ability.

And other than Love and Pekovic, that team is terrible. Kevin Martin is the only other guy that would start on a 35-win team. And when you compare them to Chicago and Toronto, understand that they would have a better record than both if they played in the East.

If you swapped Minny's role players with Phoenix's or Dallas's, we would be talking about what a bunch of scrubs DeJuan Blair, Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Monta Ellis / PJ Tucker, the Morris Twins, Gerald Green, and Channing Frye, and Miles Plumlee are. And we'd probably be talking about how good and useful Kevin Martin/Dante Cunningham/Corey Brewer/JJ Barrea/Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Chase Budinger look for Dallas/Phoenix.

I disagree. The Dallas core of Ellis/Nowitzki is a match made in heaven. Ellis is a great pick and roll guard, and Nowitzki is a great pick and roll/pick and pop player. That core is so much more complementary than the Love/Pekovic combo. And then when you look at the rest of the roster, I'd easily take Marion over Martin, Calderon over Rubio, Carter over Brewer, Harris over Calderon, and Dalembert/Wright over Dante Cunningham/Mbah a Moute.

I won't argue about Phoenix. Jeff Hornacek is a magician. I have no idea how he is doing it with that roster. But I'm highly confident that he would be doing much better if he had Love in place of any of his big men.

[stevemcqueen1]

Hands I agree with the message of your post but disagree on points within it.

First, I don't think LeBron or KD are the Wilt to Duncan's Russell. Those guys are leaders who play the game the right way. They're winners and both are going to win a lot of rings in their careers.

Second, I think Indy has leadership personalities in Hibbert and West, and George and Stephens are wonderful glue personalities. But they're still growing up as a team. Remember they only won 48 games last season, and I think before that they were mostly in the feisty but flawed low seed seed range. They haven't peaked.

Third, I agree that we've got some good chemical pieces finally. Gortat and Ariza, definitely both good fits. I like Miller and Gooden off the bench. I like Harrington in the locker room, not as crazy about him on the floor. I've always liked Booker's personality. And Nene is great for the locker room. And I agree with you about Beal still cooking, so to speak.

But I don't think the true chemistry is there yet, and I'm not sure it will get there with this group of guys. We're still struggling to play good basketball on a regular basis. We're still having breakdowns in trust on the court IMO. Some of the pieces don't quite fit IMO. I don't see much synergy in Wall and Nene's games for example. That's pretty major. Our two best and most expensive players don't really make each other better. They just take turns doing their thing.

Wall is our guy, clearly. So I think you've got to figure out a way to turn Nene's 13 million a year into a player that is a better fit from a skills perspective. I don't think we'll become contenders and squeeze the most from our roster until we do that.

[stevemcqueen1]

The alleged improvement of Monta Ellis is one of the most oversold stories of the NBA this season.

The notion that Kevin Love is a "Carmelo Anthony" type is pretty absurd too. Love is a lot more like the other Minnesota PF named Kevin.

That I don't see. KG was a superb leader and complete player unlike Love--elite defender, rebounder, offensive player, everything. He led those weak teams to the playoffs 8 straight years. Kevin Love has had better teammates the past three years than KG had during most of his prime years.

KG was far better and more successful than Love has been. He was legitimately the best player in the league around 2003 and 2004. He won an MVP and led a pretty lousy Wolves team to a 1 seed. That team was literally a two man show. They would have probably been the worst team in the league without KG, he was just a complete animal back then. Love is not close to being able to do that.

Hell Melo has been far better and more successful than Love--it's a comparison that actually insults Melo. Melo's teams have never missed the playoffs, Love is yet to make them.

[Nivek]

The alleged improvement of Monta Ellis is one of the most oversold stories of the NBA this season.

The notion that Kevin Love is a "Carmelo Anthony" type is pretty absurd too. Love is a lot more like the other Minnesota PF named Kevin.

That I don't see. KG was a superb leader and complete player unlike Love--elite defender, rebounder, offensive player, everything. He led those weak teams to the playoffs 8 straight years. Kevin Love has had better teammates the past three years than KG had during most of his prime years.

KG was far better and more successful than Love has been. He was legitimately the best player in the league around 2003 and 2004. He won an MVP and led a pretty lousy Wolves team to a 1 seed. That team was literally a two man show. They would have probably been the worst team in the league without KG, he was just a complete animal back then. Love is not close to being able to do that.

KG was a great player, no question. Better than Love has been so far, to be sure. I'd have to look back to compare teammates. Love has had really bad teams around him most of his career. Last season, he got hurt. The season before, Rubio tore his ACL.

This season's roster is the best group of teammates Love has had, and even then -- not so good. The Wizards have more players who rate above average than the Twolves. Love is outstanding, Pekovic is very good, Rubio is pretty good, Martin is above average, and...that's it. The rest of the roster rates below average in my analysis.

That they're as good as they are is testament to Love being really good, not a symptom of his flaws.

Hell Melo has been far better and more successful than Love--it's a comparison that actually insults Melo. Melo's teams have never missed the playoffs, Love is yet to make them.

This is a perfect example of the absurdity of NBA "analysis" -- where the entire team's success (or failure) is piled onto the shoulders of the player dubbed "best" on the team. Anthony has been one of the more overrated players in the league during his career. For the most part, he's had good teammates, at least when he was in Denver. Most years, he didn't rate as the most productive player on his own team.

A single great player can have an enormous impact on his team in the NBA. But, he's not everything. Even an elite player on the floor 80% of the time gets only about 16% of his team's total minutes.

[popper]

Good post. I almost agree wholeheartedly. EG has done enough to provide a least a decent playoff roster.

Only problem I have is I am genuinely concerned about Otto Porter's role with the team. He should not be considered our 2014 draft pick at all if he is 100% healthy. He should be out there developing his game. Honestly I hope that this doesn't hurt him in the long run but I can't see how he gets much more burn if A.) He doesn't bulk up and become stronger or B.)Ariza gets re-signed. This roster has needs in other positions and I don't see how he fits. I can't blame him if he doesn't fit.

I think Porter will benefit with a full off season, SL and training camp. He should be fine. He's not playing now because he's got two better SF's in front of him. That should change next year as one of Ariza or Webster will in all likelihood be gone.

Speaking of not getting burn, will Booker get any minutes when Nene comes back? I see Nene and Gooden eating up most of the PF minutes.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't really buy that Minny is losing because the players around Love are so bad. They're certainly not uniquely bad--bad enough to explain how a team with a PF who many consider the fifth best player in the league isn't winning. Would Minnesota trade rosters with Dallas or Phoenix? With Memphis? With Toronto or Chicago sans Derrick Rose? You know they absolutely wouldn't trade with us. They've got a very good foundation--a special PG and two top notch big men who are both among the best and most productive players at their position in the league. They should absolutely be winning a lot more than they're losing off of Love and Pekovic alone. That's a formula that has almost never not worked before.

I disagree. Yes, Love and Pekovic are both good, but they're not complementary because neither are rim protectors and neither are mobile. Also, Pekovic can only operate in the post, but since he doesn't pass well, he can't make use of Love's floor stretching ability.

And other than Love and Pekovic, that team is terrible. Kevin Martin is the only other guy that would start on a 35-win team. And when you compare them to Chicago and Toronto, understand that they would have a better record than both if they played in the East.

Yeah, but you don't need a big time rim protector to play great defense. Pekovic has game changing size. Minny actually has a lot of the elements to be a very good defensive team. Good defense is really about handling movement and cohesion and really a commitment to your system. San Antonio is a truly great defensive team where everyone seems to play good defense. And really Leonard and Duncan are the only good defensive players on the entire roster at this point. But man if they don't get weak individual defenders playing good defense in that system. That cohesion is what Minnesota is lacking. There is a lot Kevin Love could do by himself IMO to become a better defender and lead his team to playing better defense. More dirty work, less numbers chasing. After that, I bet you would see some of the quality defensive elements start to come together.

And Pekovic and Love are also a terrific pair offensively. Pekovic's interior presence is what lets Love play on the perimeter so much. It's the same dynamic Love had with Al Jefferson. Love likes playing with Pekovic and essentially bullied Minnesota into keeping him, and he was salty about losing Al Jefferson.

If you swapped Minny's role players with Phoenix's or Dallas's, we would be talking about what a bunch of scrubs DeJuan Blair, Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Monta Ellis / PJ Tucker, the Morris Twins, Gerald Green, and Channing Frye, and Miles Plumlee are. And we'd probably be talking about how good and useful Kevin Martin/Dante Cunningham/Corey Brewer/JJ Barrea/Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Chase Budinger look for Dallas/Phoenix.

I disagree. The Dallas core of Ellis/Nowitzki is a match made in heaven. Ellis is a great pick and roll guard, and Nowitzki is a great pick and roll/pick and pop player. That core is so much more complementary than the Love/Pekovic combo. And then when you look at the rest of the roster, I'd easily take Marion over Martin, Calderon over Rubio, Carter over Brewer, Harris over Calderon, and Dalembert/Wright over Dante Cunningham/Mbah a Moute.

I won't argue about Phoenix. Jeff Hornacek is a magician. I have no idea how he is doing it with that roster. But I'm highly confident that he would be doing much better if he had Love in place of any of his big men.

I just think Pekovic is a much better and more valuable player than Monta Ellis. I think a big difference is Dirk is a better leader and more complete player than Love. Dirk is as team first and low maintenance as it gets. Like Duncan. I don't think the talent difference is big enough to explain the difference in the quality of play between Minny and Dallas.

I also think you're underestimating Rubio. I think he's a better player than Calderon. Calderon is a great shooter and competent ball handler but he's a fairly one dimensional role player. Rubio is a fabulous ball handler and playmaker and he's a good defender that's probably going to be an elite defender in a season or two. He's got a big flaw but so did Rondo, still a PG you can win with. I think Rubio actually starts over Calderon for Spain. He's pretty special, Calderon isn't special IMO.

Dallas' players are playing better, more cohesive basketball than Minnesota's. But I'm not sure the difference is talent. It comes down to leadership and culture to me. That's certainly not all on Love. But Love is not capable of being the leader of a good team IMO. He needs a change of scenery, there is just too much bad history and bad habits in Minnesota. And he needs to find a team with a good leader, and he needs to accept that guy's leadership.

[Ruzious]

Love is a classic case showing 1 player - who isn't MJ or Lebron in their prime - can only do so much. His +18.8 on/off tells the story. That's an absurd difference and helps show Minnesota has no depth, and without depth, you aren't going to win a lot of games. Just look at Portland's starting 5 stats last season compared to their backups. And Love's last full season, he also led Minny in +/- with 9.1. Love hasn't been deficient - his teams have. There's no reason he can't win big with a good supporting cast.

[Nivek]

Minnesota's "problem" really isn't offense or defense. Their defense isn't as good as their offense, but they're better than average on D and top 10 on O. Their problem has been getting unlucky in close games. They're 7-20 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, but 16-6 in games decided by 15 or more. In games decided by 20 or more, they're 12-2.

[verbal8]

Minnesota's "problem" really isn't offense or defense. Their defense isn't as good as their offense, but they're better than average on D and top 10 on O. Their problem has been getting unlucky in close games. They're 7-20 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, but 16-6 in games decided by 15 or more. In games decided by 20 or more, they're 12-2.

This year has been the most dramatic, but the Wolves have been worse than their expected W/L for the past 7 years.

[Dat2U]

I don't really buy that Minny is losing because the players around Love are so bad. They're certainly not uniquely bad--bad enough to explain how a team with a PF who many consider the fifth best player in the league isn't winning. Would Minnesota trade rosters with Dallas or Phoenix? With Memphis? With Toronto or Chicago sans Derrick Rose? You know they absolutely wouldn't trade with us. They've got a very good foundation--a special PG and two top notch big men who are both among the best and most productive players at their position in the league. They should absolutely be winning a lot more than they're losing off of Love and Pekovic alone. That's a formula that has almost never not worked before.

I disagree. Yes, Love and Pekovic are both good, but they're not complementary because neither are rim protectors and neither are mobile. Also, Pekovic can only operate in the post, but since he doesn't pass well, he can't make use of Love's floor stretching ability.

And other than Love and Pekovic, that team is terrible. Kevin Martin is the only other guy that would start on a 35-win team. And when you compare them to Chicago and Toronto, understand that they would have a better record than both if they played in the East.

If you swapped Minny's role players with Phoenix's or Dallas's, we would be talking about what a bunch of scrubs DeJuan Blair, Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Monta Ellis / PJ Tucker, the Morris Twins, Gerald Green, and Channing Frye, and Miles Plumlee are. And we'd probably be talking about how good and useful Kevin Martin/Dante Cunningham/Corey Brewer/JJ Barrea/Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Chase Budinger look for Dallas/Phoenix.

I disagree. The Dallas core of Ellis/Nowitzki is a match made in heaven. Ellis is a great pick and roll guard, and Nowitzki is a great pick and roll/pick and pop player. That core is so much more complementary than the Love/Pekovic combo. And then when you look at the rest of the roster, I'd easily take Marion over Martin, Calderon over Rubio, Carter over Brewer, Harris over Calderon, and Dalembert/Wright over Dante Cunningham/Mbah a Moute.

I won't argue about Phoenix. Jeff Hornacek is a magician. I have no idea how he is doing it with that roster. But I'm highly confident that he would be doing much better if he had Love in place of any of his big men.

IMO this is were stats don't tell the whole story. Pekovic & Love look like a great pairing stats wise but that's based on statistics which mainly show offensive contributions. It's hard to measure the defensive impact of either player statistically but the naked eye would tell you that neither is a very good defender and any good coach or GM will tell you, without good interior defense, your not going to be a very good team.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, at the end of a close game, I'd rather have a guy like Chandler teaming up with Love than Pekovic teaming with Love. Getting back to Nowitzki, what center did he have the most success with?

[Nivek]

Minnesota's "problem" really isn't offense or defense. Their defense isn't as good as their offense, but they're better than average on D and top 10 on O. Their problem has been getting unlucky in close games. They're 7-20 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, but 16-6 in games decided by 15 or more. In games decided by 20 or more, they're 12-2.

This year has been the most dramatic, but the Wolves have been worse than their expected W/L for the past 7 years.

A little strange. In most of those years, the difference has been insignificant, though.

It just makes no sense to me to pin the team's inability to win on a guy who's a) been extremely productive on an individual basis, and b) the team falls apart when he's not in the game. That doesn't suggest "there's something wrong with Love that makes the team lose" it suggests there's something wrong with the team that they can't win with a guy like Love.

[barelyawake]

Lack of leadership and lack of will to win causes teams to be "unlucky" in close games. I worry about committing large sums of money to non-leaders with our current roster. Would Lamar Odom or Melo make us contenders? Then why would Kevin Love? Though, I'm not completely opposed to the idea.

[Nivek]

Lack of leadership and lack of will to win causes teams to be "unlucky" in close games. I worry about committing large sums of money to non-leaders with our current roster. Would Lamar Odom or Melo make us contenders? Then why would Kevin Love? Though, I'm not completely opposed to the idea.

Because Kevin Love is a much more productive player than either of those guys ever were.

And, because none of us on the outside looking in is qualified to assess the relative leadership qualities of any of these guys. Sooooo much of "leadership" -- at least in the way it gets to us fans -- is retroactive narrative anyway.

Sorta like saying, "They lost close games, therefore they lack leadership and/or a will to win." (Or, the way it's presented with the Timberwolves (and with much of sports punditry in general), "They lost close games, therefore Kevin Love is a flawed leader who lacks the will to win.") Maybe they've run into the basketball equivalent of flipping tails 10 times in a row. It's improbable, but if you flip enough coins, it happens. Or, maybe his teammates have just sucked. You know, like they actually have through most of his career.

[barelyawake]

Kev, there have been about a thousand articles written criticizing Love's lack of leadership, so I'm not the first to worry about it. And considering that we got off to rocky starts several times until our bigs demonstrated leardership by kicking Wall and/or the team in the ass, I certainly believe that "leadership" is a quality needed in whatever big we spend large dollars on (especially since we are still so young).

[ptptpt]

Yeah, at the end of a close game, I'd rather have a guy like Chandler teaming up with Love than Pekovic teaming with Love. Getting back to Nowitzki, what center did he have the most success with?

Touché.

I think the tandem of Chandler and Brendan Haywood has gotten him the most success albeit briefly.

Remember those younger years of Dirk where everyone harped on him for not playing good defense and being a poor rebounder? Dirk has always needed someone to pair up with to make up for his defensive deficiencies. But also Dirk has for most of his career had better talent than Love has. I think part of it with Kevin Love is that he has had poor pairings of talent to go with his skills. He was paired with Al Jeff, a know defensive sieve and Pekovic doesn't make up for Love's deficiencies on defense.

[Nivek]

Kev, there have been about a thousand articles written criticizing Love's lack of leadership, so I'm not the first to worry about it. And considering that we got off to rocky starts several times until our bigs demonstrated leardership by kicking Wall and/or the team in the ass, I certainly believe that "leadership" is a quality needed in whatever big we spend large dollars on (especially since we are still so young).

I'm not dismissive of leadership, but I am highly skeptical of the media's reporting on leadership and of fan analysis of it. I heard WAY too many coaches, players, and execs snicker at media reports on the fine leadership qualities of various players reputed to be outstanding leaders.

As fans, we're not in position to assess leadership in any meaningful way. We don't have enough information. Neither do most of the reporters, pundits and analysts who speak so confidently and assertively about it. Leadership and an array of personality characteristics are things I'd be interested in evaluating and considering if I was a personnel executive. And, maybe then I'd have more information with which to do that kind of evaluation.

Here's a good analysis of why the Timberwolves might be losing more than their share of close games.

[barelyawake]

Kev, there have been about a thousand articles written criticizing Love's lack of leadership, so I'm not the first to worry about it. And considering that we got off to rocky starts several times until our bigs demonstrated leardership by kicking Wall and/or the team in the ass, I certainly believe that "leadership" is a quality needed in whatever big we spend large dollars on (especially since we are still so young).

I'm not dismissive of leadership, but I am highly skeptical of the media's reporting on leadership and of fan analysis of it. I heard WAY too many coaches, players, and execs snicker at media reports on the fine leadership qualities of various players reputed to be outstanding leaders.

As fans, we're not in position to assess leadership in any meaningful way. We don't have enough information. Neither do most of the reporters, pundits and analysts who speak so confidently and assertively about it. Leadership and an array of personality characteristics are things I'd be interested in evaluating and considering if I was a personnel executive. And, maybe then I'd have more information with which to do that kind of evaluation.

Here's a good analysis of why the Timberwolves might be losing more than their share of close games.

It is entirely true that the word "leadership" is misused in the NBA. Basically, we are talking about extra effort. Extra effort on the court (diving for loose balls; taking the load of a team on your back in crunch and delivering; etc), and extra effort by helping others become better and the team a more cohesive unit. It is absolutely critical to championship success to have players that demonstrate the above, as you would agree. I said I wasn't fully against getting Love. But, what it would mean is that we would still need a big with the above qualities that Love does not possess in championship quantities (currently).

You can't say Love takes plays off and doesn't help to foment a winning culture with his attitude, and then say he is not partially responsible for the lack of determination and extra effort displayed during crunch time by him and his teammates.