What to learn from busts

[carayip]

1. Avoid guys who play basketball because they are tall or into money. Draft those who really love the game and have the desire to improve.

2. Better find guys who have a history of being able to stay healthy while playing.

[doct3r dr3]

never pick anyone from kansas or syracuse

This too lol

markieff and waiters look pretty good...

[gaspar]

It's interesting looking back at what teams loved about these prospects when they were taken. A lot of it has to do with falling into a bad situation IMO. Example (just because I'm a Cuse fan so I know more about them): trying to put Flynn in a triangle offense; trying to make Wes Johnson play SG in the pros. He in particular would have thrived on a team like Milwaukee where he could just catch and shoot off of Jennings and Ellis and get out and run the fast break with them.

The Suns (Hunter) are playing him in that role and he's looked pretty solid lately. In March and April he scored 15+ points in 9 games. In 2 seasons in Minnesota? Only 13 such games.

Obviously he's still not worth a top 5 pick, but at least he looks like he belongs in the NBA which is improvement over what we've seen in Minnesota.

[countrybama24]

The biggest one that list tells me: Drafting players for their defensive potential is a bad idea..... I think that unless you're looking at a potentially dominant defender like an A Davis, the best odds are to take the offensive prospects and then fill in the defensive holes later in FA and trades, when players prove it in the NBA

I couldn't disagree more. I think defense is extremely important in terms of contending, especially if you don't have Lebron, KD or Kobe, you must have an elite defense. You need very mobile rim protectors, and people who can check opposing stars on the perimeter. To be clear, I think defensive potential is overrated when picking in the top 5 (see all the uber-athletic busts) but is underrated is most other instances. You simply can't get great defensive bigs via Free Agency. It's basically impossible if you're not LA, NY or Miami. Larry Sanders, Horford, Dwight, Ibaka, they'll get locked up to long-term contracts and their value is far too high to trade for in almost any instance. Offense is much easier to add via free agency or trade. Maybe not top 5 scorers, but you can get a scoring PG, a PF who can shoot or create relatively easily via trade or free agency. The thunder traded Harden, the least defensively capable of their main stars, for a reason. You can get an offensively inept defensive big occasionally (bogut, dalembert, older camby etc) but someone who is competent on offense AND great defensively, or that truly elite defensive big almost every contending team needs (unless you have Lebron), you have to draft them (unless you're LA, Miami, NY).

If you start too many poor defenders, you can't "fill in the holes" very easily. Especially from the standpoint of building a contender (not just finding productive players in the draft), you can't try and figure defense out later. Gordon Hayward vs. Paul George is a pretty good example imo. Gordon was more polished and skilled, George was more athletic. George figured out how to create off the dribble, but you can't teach Hayward to defend like George (who also ended up the better shooter too). Both turned out pretty good, but I think it's must easier to teach shooting, offense, etc than defense.

Mid to Late first round "steals":
Shumpert
Leonard
Drummond
Sanders
Wes Matthews
Bledsoe
Asik
Jimmy Butler

etc. So many mid-to-late first round steals were defenders/athletes who developed their offense later on. I'm speaking mostly from the perspective of non-contending teams. If you're already a contender, and have the defense figured out, you have a lot more flexibility. But for most teams, who aren't contending, I think you need a defense-first attitude in building your team, because you can't get those guys outside of the draft. You need two great offensively players (usually top 5 picks), surrounded by athletic defenders ("3 and D" perimeter guys and a mobile, shotblocking big). Thats the blueprint IMO.

[Doctor MJ]

etc. So many mid-to-late first round steals were defenders/athletes who developed their offense later on. I'm speaking mostly from the perspective of non-contending teams. If you're already a contender, and have the defense figured out, you have a lot more flexibility. But for most teams, who aren't contending, I think you need a defense-first attitude in building your team, because you can't get those guys outside of the draft. You need two great offensively players (usually top 5 picks), surrounded by athletic defenders ("3 and D" perimeter guys and a mobile, shotblocking big). Thats the blueprint IMO.

There are a couple ways to take that though:

1) Everyone else was wasting their time, while these teams shrewdly picked up the defensive talents.

2) People in general were unable to predict who would really thrive defensively on the next level, so those who do tend to be scattered all throughout the draft.

It could be a bit of both, but I'd insist on at least some of #2. It's not uncommon to see college stars get defensive accolades along the way, and then really seem like they refuse to focus on the next level instead choosing to go all offense most of the time.

[deepeeenn]

Gotta agree with countrybama24.

You can't teach a player to be offensively creative but you can improve their shooting and expand on what they are decent at but defense is harder to teach. If a player shows they're capable and willing, that is light years ahead of most one sided offensive players.

Another steal in last years draft is Jeffrey Taylor. Not to mention, Avery Bradley is a monster on D and capable on offense will continue to develop on Offense. He's shown he's capable of working within Rondo-less Celtics team offense.

[AQuintus]

trying to make Wes Johnson play SG in the pros. He in particular would have thrived on a team like Milwaukee where he could just catch and shoot

That's all he did with Rubio in Adelman's offense last year, and he still looked horrible.

[UGA Hayes]

Gotta agree with countrybama24.

You can't teach a player to be offensively creative but you can improve their shooting and expand on what they are decent at but defense is harder to teach. If a player shows they're capable and willing, that is light years ahead of most one sided offensive players.

Another steal in last years draft is Jeffrey Taylor. Not to mention, Avery Bradley is a monster on D and capable on offense will continue to develop on Offense. He's shown he's capable of working within Rondo-less Celtics team offense.

Avery actually hasn't shown that. To me the good defender types a lot of times work out on teams that are already good, and then people ignore their offensive deficiency. The middle of the road, weak teams tend to feel the lack of production of guys who are mainly just good defenders.

[KembaWalker]

Lottery busts from 2011 and 2012:

Vesely
Biyombo
Rivers
Kendall Marshall
Markieff Morris

Debatable:

Probably Thomas Robinson: Legendarily inefficient rookie year
Derrick Williams is still underperforming but he's shown some life
Calling Brandon Knight a bust is kind of harsh but he hasn't been good
Terrence Ross probably deserves more time even if they are huge warning signs around him
Jimmer: Decent numbers, not really able to find time on a bad team though


Anything to take away from these guys or is it too early?

Jeff Green also looks like he may break away from being a bust though I would like to see him post an above-average PER before I declare that.

lol @ calling Biyombo a bust but Jimmer is only "debateable"

[Jazzfan12]

Biyombo, Marshall, and Markieff have looked a lot better this year than they have been before.

Updated list of just the top 10 and just guys that are more spectacular in their disappointment (so compared to draft slot)

2013:

Anthony Bennett
Otto Porter

2012:

Thomas Robinson
Harrison Barnes
Austin Rivers

2011:

Derrick Williams
Jan Vesely
Jimmer Fredette

2010:

Evan Turner
Wesley Johnson
Ekpe Udoh*

2009:

Hasheem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn

2008:

Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander

2007:

Greg Oden*
Yi Jianlian

2006:

Bargnani
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene

2005:

Marvin Williams
Raymond Felton
Ike Diogu

2004:

Ben Gordon
Shaun Livingston*
Josh Childress
Hoffa

2003:

Darko
Sweetney

2002:

Jay Williams*
Drew Gooden
Skita
Dajuan Wagner

2001:

Kwame Brown
Eddy Curry
Eddie Griffin
Rodney White

Alex Len has barely played this year and Ben McLemore has not been remotely good, but it's still probably too early for them...

[Jazzfan12]

And a top 10 list of busts from 2001 to 2010 would probably go:

1. Darko
2. Skita
3. Evan Turner
4. Thabeet
5. Kwame
6. Beasley
7. Mayo
8. Alexander
9. Vesely
10. Ben Gordon

Is this just a poor intangibles list or are there more common things to draw from these guys who were picked very high in the draft and have been just horrible in the NBA?

[MrBigShot]

Ben Gordon a bust? What were his expectations when he was drafted?

[Jazzfan12]

Ben Gordon a bust? What were his expectations when he was drafted?

Well, he was the 3rd overall pick.

His last two seasons with Charlotte, he rated as the worst player in the league going by RAPM and was brutal beyond the level of almost any top 3 pick in their late 20s.

[RSCD3_]

Ben Gordon a bust? What were his expectations when he was drafted?

Well, he was the 3rd overall pick.

His last two seasons with Charlotte, he rated as the worst player in the league going by RAPM and was brutal beyond the level of almost any top 3 pick in their late 20s.

He was decent enough with the bulls to avoid tge bust label

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[altonlisterine]

And a top 10 list of busts from 2001 to 2010 would probably go:

1. Darko
2. Skita
3. Evan Turner
4. Thabeet
5. Kwame
6. Beasley
7. Mayo
8. Alexander
9. Vesely
10. Ben Gordon

Is this just a poor intangibles list or are there more common things to draw from these guys who were picked very high in the draft and have been just horrible in the NBA?

Darko had NBA scouts drooling. Joe Dumars wasn't alone on an island having him near the top of their draft board. He was a kid playing well against grown men. They thought he was Nowitzki with low post moves. His total failure is a very curious case.

[ThirdMan]

And a top 10 list of busts from 2001 to 2010 would probably go:

1. Darko
2. Skita
3. Evan Turner
4. Thabeet
5. Kwame
6. Beasley
7. Mayo
8. Alexander
9. Vesely
10. Ben Gordon

Is this just a poor intangibles list or are there more common things to draw from these guys who were picked very high in the draft and have been just horrible in the NBA?

Darko had NBA scouts drooling. Joe Dumars wasn't alone on an island having him near the top of their draft board. He was a kid playing well against grown men. They thought he was Nowitzki with low post moves. His total failure is a very curious case.

Darko had a bad attitude but was also in a bad situation. The Pistons didn't try to develop him. IMO, he would have been a different player if he was drafted by a rebuilding team.