Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[TheKingOfVa360]

The alleged improvement of Monta Ellis is one of the most oversold stories of the NBA this season.

The notion that Kevin Love is a "Carmelo Anthony" type is pretty absurd too. Love is a lot more like the other Minnesota PF named Kevin.

That I don't see. KG was a superb leader and complete player unlike Love--elite defender, rebounder, offensive player, everything. He led those weak teams to the playoffs 8 straight years. Kevin Love has had better teammates the past three years than KG had during most of his prime years.

KG was far better and more successful than Love has been. He was legitimately the best player in the league around 2003 and 2004. He won an MVP and led a pretty lousy Wolves team to a 1 seed. That team was literally a two man show. They would have probably been the worst team in the league without KG, he was just a complete animal back then. Love is not close to being able to do that.

Hell Melo has been far better and more successful than Love--it's a comparison that actually insults Melo. Melo's teams have never missed the playoffs, Love is yet to make them.

I agree, Love is vastly overrated. Comparing him to Melo is an insult to Melo. Melo was a college champion and has never missed the playoffs in the NBA. Love doesn't play defense and pads his stats. I've seen games where he wouldn't contest lay ups so he can be in position to get the potential rebound.

[fishercob]

I read Zack Lowe's article about Kevin Love this morning: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-q ... evin-love/

I had some minor objections to it. First off, statements like "a player like Love only become available, truly available, once every two or three years" are obviously false. Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, James Harden, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Chris Bosh, LeBron James. That's seven guys of Love's stature (or better) who changed teams in the last four years. Dwyane Wade could have changed teams. Amar'e Stoudemire changed teams when he was an All NBA player. We're already speculating about future disaffection with LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyrie Irving, and Russell Westbrook. We do this dog and pony show with almost every star player coming up on free agency after his second contract. Lowe doesn't need to be overselling Love's potential to be a landscape changer on the open market by claiming his situation is more rare than it really is.

I also don't like the claim of equivalence to Dirk. Love is not as good as Dirk was at the same age. Hell I'm not even sure he's better than Dirk is today. He definitely does not play winning basketball as well as Dirk has and is not the leader and foundation piece Dirk has been throughout his career. I don't care what you surround him with, in no universe would a healthy Dirk season would his team ever, EVER finish with the worst record in the league like Minnesota did in 2011. Dirk's teams win 50 games a year when he's healthy, no matter the cast of misfit toys Cuban puts around him, and no matter how loaded the Western conference has been.

I also think it's naive of Lowe to think Kevin Love can meaningfully change at this point in his career.

Nevertheless, isn't Kevin Love's case the oddest in the NBA in some time? He's universally been considered a top ten player for years now. And yet he and his teams are such losers. How has a team with a top ten big man never made the playoffs? Has this ever happened before?

I think Love could win here. Legitimately contend. I don't think he could do it with what's in place in LA or New York. And I'm not sure if we're even on his list. And I'm not sure I'd want to trade for him. But if he signed here as a FA the year our cap opens up, he could win.

Minnesota is a weird team. There is a HUGE discrepancy between their actual win/loss totals, and their expected totals based on point differential and strength of schedule. Based on SRS, they're the 9th best team in the league ahead of Dallas, Memphis and Phoenix, as well as Toronto, Washington and Chicago. Yet, according to their record, they're the 16th best team in the league. They have lost a TON of close games, and I think it's due to their lack of a perimeter player who can create a shot. Jose Barea is their best option. That's sad.

You can then look at Kevin Love's on/off numbers and see that he is a major difference maker. When he is on the floor, the TWolves are 14.9 points better per 100 possessions than when he is off. Indeed, when Love is on the floor, the TWolves have a point differential that would rank them as the best team in the league. That speaks to how bad his teammates are.

I'm more swayed by your, Kev's and Lowe's points than steve's. Love isn't a perfect player, but he's certainly an elite offensive player.

As I have said on multiple occasions, I would strongly favor dealing Beal for him. The deal that seems most likely is Beal+Otto+Miller for Love, but there are other iterations that could work.

An offense built around Love and Wall would be devastating.

There seem to be several viable paths as where to go from there. You could keep Gortat and rotate him, Love and Nene for most of the froncourt minutes. Or, if you have Drew Gooden for the minimum for a year, you start Nene at center, let Gortat walk and potentially have a mess of cap room after Nene expires (with Wall and Love in tow).

But to Lowe's point, short of giving up Wall, the Wizards should acquire Love if they can and worry about building the perfect roster around him and Wall after the fact.

[hands11]

Good post. I almost agree wholeheartedly. EG has done enough to provide a least a decent playoff roster.

Only problem I have is I am genuinely concerned about Otto Porter's role with the team. He should not be considered our 2014 draft pick at all if he is 100% healthy. He should be out there developing his game. Honestly I hope that this doesn't hurt him in the long run but I can't see how he gets much more burn if A.) He doesn't bulk up and become stronger or B.)Ariza gets re-signed. This roster has needs in other positions and I don't see how he fits. I can't blame him if he doesn't fit.

Thank you.

As for Otto, I think that starts with what happens with TA. If they keep him, then you either move Webster or Otto. Otto being younger, taller and hopefully less injury prone, I think they will want to give him a good look first. If he measures up, I think they trade Webster at the trade deadline if they need to use him to get another asset they need. If TA leaves and we get nothing in a sign and trade, then Otto is going to have to get r done next year backing up Webster. Its nice to have options.

I would have also liked to have seen more Otto, even if in limited minutes. But it not the end of the world. Just not ideal. I can tollerate not ideal. End of the world..?





























Not so much

[Ruzious]

Yeah, at the end of a close game, I'd rather have a guy like Chandler teaming up with Love than Pekovic teaming with Love. Getting back to Nowitzki, what center did he have the most success with?

Touché.

I think the tandem of Chandler and Brendan Haywood has gotten him the most success albeit briefly.

Remember those younger years of Dirk where everyone harped on him for not playing good defense and being a poor rebounder? Dirk has always needed someone to pair up with to make up for his defensive deficiencies. But also Dirk has for most of his career had better talent than Love has. I think part of it with Kevin Love is that he has had poor pairings of talent to go with his skills. He was paired with Al Jeff, a know defensive sieve and Pekovic doesn't make up for Love's deficiencies on defense.

I agree - blending players that complement each other is an import skill. From talking to Dallas fans over the years, Dirk hasn't been the defensive liability some media folks claim he was, but there's no doubt that having an outstanding defender at center next to him made more sense than having an Al Jefferson type next to him. Same thing with Love. Do that, and all of a sudden Love is a winner type player. Hey, people (who likely now choose to forget) used to call Kevin Garnet a liability for Minnesota. "He made too much money and wouldn't play tough inside."

[hands11]

What we need to do with Webster is sit him when he's not healthy. Webster's 4th year is voidable if he misses 66 or more games in the first 3 years of his contract. Better to book some of those 66 games now while giving him the rest he needs to be effective in the playoffs.

The best case scenario is to have him play 60 healthy games a year, and rest 22 games games. It's much better than having him play 40 or so games healthy and then limp around ineffectively for the other 42.

Ariza is currently the second-best player on the team, or maybe the 3rd behind Gortat. Losing him would be a big blow. I don't see Ted letting it happen. I just hope we resign him to a 2-year deal.

I think our future plan is pretty simple if only we had an objective GM to make the decisions. I can sympathize with Ted's mandate to win games now. He wants to make money. But he needs to understand that we can't blindly resign and extend all of our aging vets for maximum-length contracts. We need to structure things so that we remain a competent team in the short term, but set ourselves up to be players in the 2016 free agency market. (We also need a decent GM who can find us some contributing players late in the draft to augment our depth.)

It would appear they are following the plan.

That remains to be seen. That statement will certainly prove to be false if they end up signing Ariza and Gortat to 3-year or 4-year contracts.

The bottom line is that for us to have options in 2016, only one of Gortat, Ariza and Webster can be on the roster at that time.

You have posted the kind of contracts you would like to see them signed to if they do sign, and what you think they may have to do to bend a little more to get the deals done. 2 years for more money. 3 years if needed but descending if they can. If that isn't correct, sorry about that but I think its close from what I remember.

But if they have to go four years, don't they have the option of trading them if they need to ?

I know we don't know for who but usually these kinds of trades are available. Granted, it may not be ideal. You can get stuck with your hand in the cookie jar. You might have to even give up a little to make it happen. Or not. But aren't those kind of trades viable ? Also, you can get stuck with cap that player you want doesn't come to your team. Stuff at home on prom night and settling for the girl you didn't really want.

Nothing is free. Well usually its that way. Gooden looks like a freebee. Sometimes you get lucky. But on the flip side, if they want all those players back so they can make some noise next year, and the players only bend so much but not enough, they may have to take what the can knowing the cost down the right "might" be having to give up a 2nd or something in a deal that trades TA or Gortat's 2016, 2017 years for a player on a shorter contract.

I'm all for keeping the decks clear for a great FA pick up like KD. Hell, I was one of the posters that started that banter, but at the same time, there are risks is clearing the deck and the new furniture never arrives.

There is a saying I like. Trust in God. But tie your horse.

Its all about balancing risk and reward.

[hands11]

I don't really buy that Minny is losing because the players around Love are so bad. They're certainly not uniquely bad--bad enough to explain how a team with a PF who many consider the fifth best player in the league isn't winning. Would Minnesota trade rosters with Dallas or Phoenix? With Memphis? With Toronto or Chicago sans Derrick Rose? You know they absolutely wouldn't trade with us. They've got a very good foundation--a special PG and two top notch big men who are both among the best and most productive players at their position in the league. They should absolutely be winning a lot more than they're losing off of Love and Pekovic alone. That's a formula that has almost never not worked before.

I disagree. Yes, Love and Pekovic are both good, but they're not complementary because neither are rim protectors and neither are mobile. Also, Pekovic can only operate in the post, but since he doesn't pass well, he can't make use of Love's floor stretching ability.

And other than Love and Pekovic, that team is terrible. Kevin Martin is the only other guy that would start on a 35-win team. And when you compare them to Chicago and Toronto, understand that they would have a better record than both if they played in the East.

If you swapped Minny's role players with Phoenix's or Dallas's, we would be talking about what a bunch of scrubs DeJuan Blair, Samuel Dalembert, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Monta Ellis / PJ Tucker, the Morris Twins, Gerald Green, and Channing Frye, and Miles Plumlee are. And we'd probably be talking about how good and useful Kevin Martin/Dante Cunningham/Corey Brewer/JJ Barrea/Luc Richard Mbah a Moute/Chase Budinger look for Dallas/Phoenix.

I disagree. The Dallas core of Ellis/Nowitzki is a match made in heaven. Ellis is a great pick and roll guard, and Nowitzki is a great pick and roll/pick and pop player. That core is so much more complementary than the Love/Pekovic combo. And then when you look at the rest of the roster, I'd easily take Marion over Martin, Calderon over Rubio, Carter over Brewer, Harris over Calderon, and Dalembert/Wright over Dante Cunningham/Mbah a Moute.

I won't argue about Phoenix. Jeff Hornacek is a magician. I have no idea how he is doing it with that roster. But I'm highly confident that he would be doing much better if he had Love in place of any of his big men.

Agreed. I was hoping Dirk became available and we could get him for 1-2 year and title chase with him, but Cuban did a nice job in the offseason. He properly identify that Ellis was a good player in the wrong situation. He saw how he could be used with Dirk and he was correct. Last year people easily bashed Ellis as a chucker they didn't want. Now he looks like good value legit core piece. He is only making 8,360,000M Thats a good deal for what he can do with Dirk.

[payitforward]

Hell Melo has been far better and more successful than Love--it's a comparison that actually insults Melo. Melo's teams have never missed the playoffs, Love is yet to make them.

This is a perfect example of the absurdity of NBA "analysis" -- where the entire team's success (or failure) is piled onto the shoulders of the player dubbed "best" on the team. Anthony has been one of the more overrated players in the league during his career. For the most part, he's had good teammates, at least when he was in Denver. Most years, he didn't rate as the most productive player on his own team.

A single great player can have an enormous impact on his team in the NBA. But, he's not everything. Even an elite player on the floor 80% of the time gets only about 16% of his team's total minutes.

Melo is much richer than Love -- maybe that's what stevemcqueen1 means?

And Melo not a "great player." Overall, on his career, Melo has been a consistently above average player, because of his scoring ability, and as Kevin says, a consistently overrated player -- for the same reason.

By and large, people way overrate scoring -- points per game -- independent of the efficiency of that scoring. This is similar to the way usually the same people also overrate the influence of coaches on wins and losses. Unfortunately, neither of these myths can be overturned.

[hands11]

Hands I agree with the message of your post but disagree on points within it.

First, I don't think LeBron or KD are the Wilt to Duncan's Russell. Those guys are leaders who play the game the right way. They're winners and both are going to win a lot of rings in their careers.

Second, I think Indy has leadership personalities in Hibbert and West, and George and Stephens are wonderful glue personalities. But they're still growing up as a team. Remember they only won 48 games last season, and I think before that they were mostly in the feisty but flawed low seed seed range. They haven't peaked.

Third, I agree that we've got some good chemical pieces finally. Gortat and Ariza, definitely both good fits. I like Miller and Gooden off the bench. I like Harrington in the locker room, not as crazy about him on the floor. I've always liked Booker's personality. And Nene is great for the locker room. And I agree with you about Beal still cooking, so to speak.

But I don't think the true chemistry is there yet, and I'm not sure it will get there with this group of guys. We're still struggling to play good basketball on a regular basis. We're still having breakdowns in trust on the court IMO. Some of the pieces don't quite fit IMO. I don't see much synergy in Wall and Nene's games for example. That's pretty major. Our two best and most expensive players don't really make each other better. They just take turns doing their thing.

Wall is our guy, clearly. So I think you've got to figure out a way to turn Nene's 13 million a year into a player that is a better fit from a skills perspective. I don't think we'll become contenders and squeeze the most from our roster until we do that.

Sorry if I wasn't more clear. I wrote a lot and it was mostly a stream of consciousness thing. I'm sure I could have been more clear in some areas. But what was most important to me was the general theme of the post. Hopefully that came through. As for the framing of your reply, let me say...thank you. I appreciate you approach... i.e. You liked the post, but have some views to add.

Let me see if I can clarify where I can.

"Then look at SAS. Duncan is awesome but he isn't Lebron or KD. But he is a great leader of a great TEAM. And they have a great coach and team system. That's why Duncan can still get it down at his age. Its Bill Russell vs Wilt"

I was attempting to point out superior athleticism over less athletic player Duncan is today that can still get it done. I agree. KD and LeBron are smart basketball player and leaders. LeBron struggled to get to the top of Cleveland, but he has grown in Miami. He is going to be tough to dethrone with the talent and mind he now has.

As for IND, sure those are the leaders. But are they going to be good enough leaders ? There are levels of leadership. We will see. Like we will see about Wall and we will see if Beal can step it up and find his complimentary spot. From what I have seen in Wall, I think he can get there. I think he has the right stuff. As I said with Beal, its not soup yet but I think it can get there. Might be next year though. Stars are molded by the greatest of challenges. Their steal is tested. Does the blade get sharper or does it snap? That's the question. So far Walls seems to be getting sharper. Now its time to turn up the heat and forge the steal some more. And that's why Wall had to get to the playoffs. He needs to test his steal and see what comes of it.

To you last points. I left AH out but yeah, Big Cheese is a good fit personality that isn't as good on the floor. He does add something, but I think Gooden does we wanted from Big Cheese, so he wasn't a focus in my post. I agree the Booker adds something as well. I left them out because I was focusing on the more important core pieces. Which bring us to Nene. I can't say your view isn't a concern I share but I do like Nene and think he does bring something special. I think I said.. the Big Brazilian with post powers, IQ for the game and he can pass well. I think he brings plenty this team needs. And I do agree... it hasn't all gotten missed together yet. Nene, Gooden and the Professor haven't all played together yet with Wall. Wall needs to work it out so it all works. And Professor can help as well.

Then there is the last important piece. THE CHIEF. Mr Randy Whitman. There I have my concerns.

The team is not all the way there, but I enjoyed writing about them from the perspective that was not only about talent but about talent and personality fit. I think this team has a little more to it then we may realize yet. Now its going to take everyone stepping it up into their roles and some luck, if they are to maximize this years opportunity.

Its always about the next game and the next challenge. Success build Success. There are no short cuts. They need to get through the next door to get to the door after that.

[payitforward]

Note that it's easy to understand where the myth comes from that equates scoring a lot of points per game with being a great player. It comes from the fact that basketball is two things: it's competition, and it's entertainment.

It's entertaining to watch a guy score a lot of points; it's fun. Really, it's almost as much fun no matter the efficiency w/ which the points pile up. If a guy gets 40 points, people will think he had a great game -- whether he got them on 18 shots or 27 shots.

Yet from the point of view of competition, we don't hold a playoffs among the 16 teams that scored the most points on the season! From that point of view, it's not how many, it's how many more than your opponents. And efficiency is the key differentiator in the latter -- scoring efficiency, rebounding efficiency (esp. offensive rebounding), etc. -- but mostly those two.

So... Melo is entertaining -- and for that reason he is rich. Richer than Love. But any team that chose Love instead of Melo would post a higher win/loss record than the team that did the opposite.

[stevemcqueen1]

Except Melo actually does win. And Love doesn't.

[fishercob]

WHat has Melo ever won? WHo has a better record this year?

[Nivek]

Except Melo actually does win. And Love doesn't.

And if we were talking about tennis or golf or boxing or sprinting, that would be more meaningful.

[stevemcqueen1]

WHat has Melo ever won? WHo has a better record this year?

Melo has won quite a bit more than Love has. Who has the better record every other year of their careers?

[Nivek]

WHat has Melo ever won? WHo has a better record this year?

Melo has won quite a bit more than Love has. Who has the better record every other year of their careers?

Neither guy has a personal won/lost record. They play a team sport. Anthony's team has a better record, but (as we've been saying) both guys are reliant upon the contributions of their teammates to determine whether their teams win or lose. Anthony has been good, but he's also had good teammates. Love has been outstanding, but has had bad teammates.

[stevemcqueen1]

WHat has Melo ever won? WHo has a better record this year?

Melo has won quite a bit more than Love has. Who has the better record every other year of their careers?

Neither guy has a personal won/lost record. They play a team sport. Anthony's team has a better record, but (as we've been saying) both guys are reliant upon the contributions of their teammates to determine whether their teams win or lose. Anthony has been good, but he's also had good teammates. Love has been outstanding, but has had bad teammates.

You keep saying this but you're being disingenuous. As the franchise player and leader for their respective teams, they're ABSOLUTELY judged by team success because they are the single biggest factor in determining it.

It really doesn't matter what Kevin Love's counting stats are, nor all the metrics derived solely from his counting stats. They're empty numbers because he's had virtually no meaningful success in the NBA. As someone who is supposed to be one of the best players in the league, shouldn't he have been able to lead his team to the playoffs even once in six seasons? That's a really low bar. The fact that his teams have been such losers is an indictment of him as a player and leader. His third season his team won an NBA 17 games. That's damning, especially since his teams are still losers. No legit great player ever loses that many games in a season where they're healthy.

[Nivek]

Show me the "legit" players whose teammates were as bad as Love's. That season, Love was terrific and Luke Ridnour was the only other player to rate above average. Look back at that roster -- it was dreck except for Love. It makes zero sense to look at a team's record, recognize that everyone on the team sucks except one guy, and then blame the one guy who doesn't suck.

And no, I'm not being disingenuous, I'm saying it makes no sense to use TEAM success the sole measure of a player's effectiveness. Team success is one thing to consider, not the only thing. I understand that this a common approach among many "analysts" and fans. I prefer an approach that isn't quite so reductive.

[deneem4]

The wolves have an excellent roster...
rubio one of the better passing pgs
martin a pure sg
brewer
love top 5 pf
pek top 5 center

their bench is acceptable if rotated correctly

the wolves problems lies with coordination and coaching...

[Nivek]

The wolves have an excellent roster...

Let's take a look...

rubio one of the better passing pgs

Good player. Overall impact is very similar to Wall's. Has improved his shooting this year. Plays for steals a lot, which can leave the defense vulnerable.

martin a pure sg

Martin is a good shooter who doesn't do a lot else, including play much defense.

brewer

Brewer is a decent defender and basically a self-check on offense. In my stuff, he rates well-below average.

love top 5 pf

Yep. One of the best players in the league.

pek top 5 center

Top 10, maybe.

heir bench is acceptable if rotated correctly

the wolves problems lies with coordination and coaching...

Their bench is pretty unproductive. These are the players on their roster who rate average or better in my analysis: Love, Pekovic, Rubio and Martin. Their 5th starter (Brewer) is below average.

Dieng is close to average, but still below. Turiaf was close, but is hurt. Their best bench players after Dieng is Dante Cunningham (way below average), and Robbie Hummel (a little above replacement level). Barea has played 1300+ minutes for them -- he's replacement level. They have roughly 3600 minutes so far this season from players who rate as replacement level or worse.

I wouldn't conclude they have a good roster. They have the start of a good roster, but they desperately need a 5th starter and some depth.

[deneem4]

The wolves have an excellent roster...

Let's take a look...

rubio one of the better passing pgs

Good player. Overall impact is very similar to Wall's. Has improved his shooting this year. Plays for steals a lot, which can leave the defense vulnerable.

martin a pure sg

Martin is a good shooter who doesn't do a lot else, including play much defense.

brewer

Brewer is a decent defender and basically a self-check on offense. In my stuff, he rates well-below average.

love top 5 pf

Yep. One of the best players in the league.

pek top 5 center

Top 10, maybe.

heir bench is acceptable if rotated correctly

the wolves problems lies with coordination and coaching...

Their bench is pretty unproductive. These are the players on their roster who rate average or better in my analysis: Love, Pekovic, Rubio and Martin. Their 5th starter (Brewer) is below average.

Dieng is close to average, but still below. Turiaf was close, but is hurt. Their best bench players after Dieng is Dante Cunningham (way below average), and Robbie Hummel (a little above replacement level). Barea has played 1300+ minutes for them -- he's replacement level. They have roughly 3600 minutes so far this season from players who rate as replacement level or worse.

I wouldn't conclude they have a good roster. They have the start of a good roster, but they desperately need a 5th starter and some depth.

But they're roster is 10x better than ours

[popper]

Show me the "legit" players whose teammates were as bad as Love's. That season, Love was terrific and Luke Ridnour was the only other player to rate above average. Look back at that roster -- it was dreck except for Love. It makes zero sense to look at a team's record, recognize that everyone on the team sucks except one guy, and then blame the one guy who doesn't suck.

And no, I'm not being disingenuous, I'm saying it makes no sense to use TEAM success the sole measure of a player's effectiveness. Team success is one thing to consider, not the only thing. I understand that this a common approach among many "analysts" and fans. I prefer an approach that isn't quite so reductive.

I don't understand how anyone can judge a player based on team record. Even the best players are only on the floor for 20% of total team minutes. It's as if some think that that player, in all circumstances, can so impact the play of the other 80% of team minutes as to always move the win-loss record significantly to the win side. It is a team sport. One is dependent upon the effectiveness of the other 80% of team minutes and to think otherwise is an error in judgement.

Edit = if Lebron is your sole superstar and if Maynor gets 20 min. per game at the point your team is going to suck. Lebron doesn't suck but his team will.