Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[dckingsfan]

Seem to have a plan to get respectable:
Memphis, Toronto, Washington

For 1-year anyway.

Yep, kind of seems that way. Memphis will probably return the same team next year - I can't believe that Randolph will opt out. Guessing Mike Miller comes back - the question will be if Gasol's big brother joins the team.

Toronto will have all sorts of competition to sign Lowry. Pretty sure they will let Salmons go - so they will have the cap space.

And then there is Washington. Gortat and Ariza? And even if we do, we aren't as good as either of those teams next year in all probability.

[Nivek]

The Wizards could be pretty good next season by bringing back Ariza and Gortat, and by using their MLE to get a good backup big man...IF...Nenê can find a fountain of youth and get his production back up, IF Gortat and Ariza can maintain their levels of performance from this season, and/or IF they get significant improvements/contributions from they youngsters: Wall, Beal and/or Porter.

Their prospects over the next 4-5 years will depend on the balance between the highly-likely age-related declines of Gortat and Nenê and the reversion to previous form from Ariza vs. the hoped-for improvements from Wall, Beal and Porter. Plus whoever they can sign using cap exceptions and/or find in the draft (when they have picks again, and assuming they don't keep trading away future picks for veterans).

[dckingsfan]

The Wizards could be pretty good next season by bringing back Ariza and Gortat, and by using their MLE to get a good backup big man...IF...Nenê can find a fountain of youth and get his production back up, IF Gortat and Ariza can maintain their levels of performance from this season, and/or IF they get significant improvements/contributions from they youngsters: Wall, Beal and/or Porter.

Their prospects over the next 4-5 years will depend on the balance between the highly-likely age-related declines of Gortat and Nenê and the reversion to previous form from Ariza vs. the hoped-for improvements from Wall, Beal and Porter. Plus whoever they can sign using cap exceptions and/or find in the draft (when they have picks again, and assuming they don't keep trading away future picks for veterans).

Hey Nivek - let's say that Nene stays relatively healthy and plays in 60+ games. Ariza, Webster and Gooden maintain career best numbers. Wall improves and Beal takes a large leap forward. Porter becomes a solid role player as does Rice. We are able to find that elusive FC player to backup Nene. Assume that Ariza, Gortat and Gooden resign. And they keep Miller.

What would be you relative win/loss range? My range for that team (although highly unlikely that all of those things happen) would be between .570 and .620.

[Nivek]

The Wizards could be pretty good next season by bringing back Ariza and Gortat, and by using their MLE to get a good backup big man...IF...Nenê can find a fountain of youth and get his production back up, IF Gortat and Ariza can maintain their levels of performance from this season, and/or IF they get significant improvements/contributions from they youngsters: Wall, Beal and/or Porter.

Their prospects over the next 4-5 years will depend on the balance between the highly-likely age-related declines of Gortat and Nenê and the reversion to previous form from Ariza vs. the hoped-for improvements from Wall, Beal and Porter. Plus whoever they can sign using cap exceptions and/or find in the draft (when they have picks again, and assuming they don't keep trading away future picks for veterans).

Hey Nivek - let's say that Nene stays relatively healthy and plays in 60+ games. Ariza, Webster and Gooden maintain career best numbers. Wall improves and Beal takes a large leap forward. Porter becomes a solid role player as does Rice. We are able to find that elusive FC player to backup Nene. Assume that Ariza, Gortat and Gooden resign. And they keep Miller.

What would be you relative win/loss range? My range for that team (although highly unlikely that all of those things happen) would be between .570 and .620.

Let's do this using PPA. In PPA, average = 100, higher is better, and 45 = replacement level.

Nenê for 60 games at ??? PPA? This season, he's at 103. Last season, he was at 119. I'd projected a bounce-back year for him this season of about 146. Without doing the projection work, based on what he's done the past couple seasons, I'd guess his projection next year to be in the 100-110 range.

How big do you figure the jumps for Wall and Beal will be? Wall this season is at 144. He posted a 139 last season. Beal's at 90 so far this year after a 92 as a rookie. I'd projected Wall at 160 this season and Beal at 108.

For Porter and Rice, what are you thinking? 75-ish for each?

Who are you thinking for an MLE big? Dejuan Blair? Booker?

[dckingsfan]

Wall 160
Beal 115
Rice & Porter 80
Nene 120 - I know...
Humphries - 130

[Nivek]

Wall 160
Beal 115
Rice & Porter 80
Nene 120 - I know...
Humphries - 130

Back with you in a few minutes.

Pretty cool guesstimate on Humphries, by the way. His PPA this season: 131.

[Nivek]

Wall 160
Beal 115
Rice & Porter 80
Nene 120 - I know...
Humphries - 130

Very rough projection, I could see that group winning 50+ games with reasonable health. With probably another thousand minutes to allocate (and not much thought given to balancing minutes between positions), the estimate was for 52 wins.

[dckingsfan]

Wall 160
Beal 115
Rice & Porter 80
Nene 120 - I know...
Humphries - 130

Very rough projection, I could see that group winning 50+ games with reasonable health. With probably another thousand minutes to allocate (and not much thought given to balancing minutes between positions), the estimate was for 52 wins.

OK, I had 46-51 but I was low this year as well (39). I hate that best case scenario is we are looking at mid 50s over the next couple of years unless something lucky happens. And could very well be a cliff if normal wear and tear on older players happens.

[Nivek]

I dunno -- mid-50s would be good, if they could sustain it for a few years. Mid-50s would mean 2nd or 3rd in the East, most likely. They'd have a reasonable shot at reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, and would be considered at least long-shot contenders to reach the Finals. A lot of stuff would have to go right, though.

The challenge in breaking through -- even in this best case scenario -- is that they'd still lack that truly elite player. Wall would be a top 5 PG for sure at a PPA of 160, but MPV candidates are usually in the 225+ range.

Of the various assumptions we've made, I think Wall getting to 160ish is pretty realistic. Same with Beal getting to 115. I'd anticipate Gortat being able to maintain for another couple years. But Nenê at 120? I think it's more realistic that he'll continue to decline. Rice and Porter at 80? It's possible, I guess. Porter is the more likely of the two to get there. I'd expect Rice to be around replacement level.

[dobrojim]

hope y'all saw MLee's twitter feed from the game.

[ptptpt]

I dunno -- mid-50s would be good, if they could sustain it for a few years. Mid-50s would mean 2nd or 3rd in the East, most likely. They'd have a reasonable shot at reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, and would be considered at least long-shot contenders to reach the Finals. A lot of stuff would have to go right, though.

The challenge in breaking through -- even in this best case scenario -- is that they'd still lack that truly elite player. Wall would be a top 5 PG for sure at a PPA of 160, but MPV candidates are usually in the 225+ range.

A truly elite player would be nice. But those are pretty hard to come by. If they were Bulls-Pacers-Spurs good on the defensive end then I think this team would have a better chance. You definitely have to be elite, but it doesn't always have to be provided through one or two players. I think an elite defense can especially go a long way to competing.

[dckingsfan]

BTW, no one posted it - so it is appropriate that it be posted here:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Congratulations to EG and Wittman for securing extensions.

[montestewart]

BTW, no one posted it - so it is appropriate that it be posted here:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Congratulations to EG and Wittman for securing extensions.

Fishercob had a variation in one of these threads.

Today, we are all Grunfeld.

[Nivek]

The thread title needs to be changed:

COUNTDOWN TO ERNIE GRUNFELD EXTENSION

[WallToWall]

I have a hypothesis. The Wiz will keep both EG and Witt till the start of the 2016 season. So, yeah, they get a small extension. I say this because, much like other teams that want big name free agents, they want to give flexibility for that star player to have a say as to the coach and GM. If the intent is to go after Durant and others in 2016, then that is when a wholesale change could occur.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using RealGM Forums mobile app

[closg00]

The thread title needs to be changed:

COUNTDOWN TO ERNIE GRUNFELD EXTENSION

Yup, rename the thread. Full speed ahead for rebuilding again on-the-fly next summer.

[tontoz]

I have a hypothesis. The Wiz will keep both EG and Witt till the start of the 2016 season. So, yeah, they get a small extension. I say this because, much like other teams that want big name free agents, they want to give flexibility for that star player to have a say as to the coach and GM. If the intent is to go after Durant and others in 2016, then that is when a wholesale change could occur.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using RealGM Forums mobile app

If EG gets an extension they won't have any capspace available in 2016. The only chance we have of getting Durant is to let EG go.

EG does not plan ahead.

[queridiculo]

BTW, no one posted it - so it is appropriate that it be posted here:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Congratulations to EG and Wittman for securing extensions.

What??

[closg00]

BTW, no one posted it - so it is appropriate that it be posted here:

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

Congratulations to EG and Wittman for securing extensions.

What??

By returning to the playoffs, Ernie & Randy are safe bets to get some kind of an extension.

[dckingsfan]

Just to keep track of this...

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10711 ... executives

Damn, I guess the posters poll was right - go figure!