2001-2014 RAPM (Updated now to 1997-2014 RAPM)

[aol4532]

The numbers that strike me is the RAPM per 100, so Duncan is almost right up there with Lebron, even though half of his time are out of prime? Just as I figured.

[colts18]

The numbers that strike me is the RAPM per 100, so Duncan is almost right up there with Lebron, even though half of his time are out of prime? Just as I figured.

To be fair, LeBron's numbers are somewhat downgraded by including his first 2 seasons. At their primes, they had similar RAPM numbers though LeBron peaked higher (09+10).

[aol4532]

Does RAPM take into account W/L? In that case, you have to take into account conferences

[colts18]

Does RAPM take into account W/L? In that case, you have to take into account conferences

It takes into W/L to a certain extent. It takes into account scoring margin. Generally a high scoring margin correlates to wins. It doesn't take into account conferences. What it does take into account is opponents. If you are a starter, you get credit for playing against the other teams starters. While a bench player gets downgraded for playing bad opposition.

[Doctor MJ]

The numbers that strike me is the RAPM per 100, so Duncan is almost right up there with Lebron, even though half of his time are out of prime? Just as I figured.

You've got a good point here, when all is said & done we may look at LeBron's prime starting in 2008, which means about half the time here is out of LeBron's prime as well.

[Doctor MJ]

More fun facts. Among draft years with enough data to say something based on this, here are the Offensive, Defensive, and Overall champions I see from this:

Year Offense Defense Overall
'07 Durant Gasol Durant
'06 Aldridge Aldridge Aldridge
'05 Paul Bogut Paul
'04 Howard Iguodala Howard
'03 James James James
'02 Boozer Nene Nene
'01 Gasol Battier Parker
'00 Turkoglu Martin Turkoglu
'99 Ginobili Artest Ginobili
'98 Nowitzki Nowitzki Nowitzki
'97 Duncan Duncan Duncan
'96 Bryant Wallace Bryant

Note that I may have miss some specialists in here.

Most interesting tidbit to me is the year 2004 where 3-time DPOY is NOT the defensive leader of his own class. He actually ranks 3rd behind Iguodala and Deng, and per minute Tony Allen ranks higher than all of them, and that's all before we even mention Josh Smith, Anderson Varejao, and Emeka Okafor. What an incredible draft for defense that turned out to be.

[colts18]

Now that acrossthecourt has done the 1997-2000 RAPM, I added them in on the list. Here is the updated list.

Points above average:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm

RAPM per 100:

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/97-14-rapm-2

Notes:
-Duncan still leads the points above average and is almost at 5000 points above average in his career.
-LeBron leads the RAPM per 100 at 5.63. Only 4 guys are +5 (LeBron, Duncan, Shaq, and Manu)
-David Robinson is 6th and John Stockton is 10th
-Some surprise names in the top 25 of RAPM per 100 include Patrick Beverly, Gheorghe Muresan, Terry Mills, Byron Scott, and Amir Johnson.
-Kobe is the only guy who has surpassed 100,000 career possessions. Amazing longevity

The RAPM above average list looks like a really good list of the best players of the past 18 years.

Rank Name Above Avg
1 Tim Duncan 4962.5
2 Kevin Garnett 4718.9
3 LeBron James 4178.2
4 Dirk Nowitzki 3955.9
5 Shaquille O'Neal 3664.8
6 Kobe Bryant 3110.3
7 Dwyane Wade 2699.9
8 Manu Ginobili 2578.4
9 Rasheed Wallace 2503.4
10 Jason Kidd 2494.9
11 Steve Nash 2331.7
12 Paul Pierce 2199.1
13 Vince Carter 2135.5
14 Chris Paul 1874.0
15 Metta World Peace 1785.0

[sp6r=underrated]

A lot of people use RAPM as an all in one stat to rank players.

[Quotatious]

A lot of people use RAPM as an all in one stat to rank players.

Yeah, and I think we gotta be very cautious not to do so. I openly admit that I'm not an expert in terms of stats, but even with my somewhat limited knowledge, it seems to me that it'd be just as bad as Hollinger using his PER as an all in one stat. I think we really need to look at players in context and consider all circumstances. RAPM is certainly a useful stat, especially to evaluate defense, but not a metric that takes care of every aspect of basketball - I don't think any stat can measure eveything accurately in one number.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I always thought that Shawn Bradley was severely underrated, and I think numbers are confirming that.
He was not worth a #2 pick, but he was not a scrub.
Nice to see how Andrea is the worst among players with at least 30k possessions.

[lorak]

. I think we really need to look at players in context and consider all circumstances.

It applies not only to RAPM, but to literally everything. Eye test, titles, "my feeling", "watching games" and so on. Unfortunately people who are first to criticize statistics usually don't realize it. They also don't understand that because of their nature stats are more objective than alternative ("eyes").

[Quotatious]

It applies not only to RAPM, but to literally everything. Eye test, titles, "my feeling", "watching games" and so on. Unfortunately people who are first to criticize statistics usually don't realize it. They also don't understand that because of their nature stats are more objective than alternative ("eyes").

You're absolutely right. I don't criticize RAPM, or think that "eye test" is better - it certainly isn't - it's the most flawed way to analyze the game. Taking advantage of whatever tools are available is likely gonna bring you the mot objective results - the more you analyze (analyze the correct way, that is - knowing what certain stats are meant to measure, and using as many as you can, just as a "food for thought"). That's obvious though, so we don't have anything to argue about here.

[lorak]

Engelmann has published 14 years RAPM: from 2001 to 2014: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

KG over Duncan on defense. LJ and KG as two the most impactfull overall players and LeBron more impactfull on offense than Nash.

[Reservoirdawgs]

That's an interesting Top 10 (2001-2014):

1. KG (9.4)
2. Lebron (9.2)
3. Tim Duncan (7.6)
4. Chris Paul (7.1)
5. Dirk Nowitzki (7.1)
6. Manu Ginobili (6.6)
7. Steve Nash (5.7)
8. Paul Pierce (5.6)
9. Amir Johnson (5.5)
10. LaMarcus Aldridge (5.5)

The Top 3 shouldn't surprise anyone, although I am surprised at the order. I would have thought that Duncan would be #1 or #2 instead of being a pretty distant #3. Amir Johnson in the Top 10 is certainly a surprise, as is LaMarcus Aldridge.

[Reservoirdawgs]

More fun with the data:

Top 5 most possessions (2001-2014)
1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Shawn Marion
4. Paul Pierce
5. Andre Miller

Offense Per/100 (2001-2014)
1. Lebron James (6.7)
2. Steve Nash (6.2)
3. Chris Paul (6.1)
4. Kobe Bryant (5.7)
5. James Harden (5.2)

Defense Per/100 (2001-2014)
1. Kevin Garnett (7.5)
2. Tim Duncan (6.1)
3. Dikembe Mutombo (5.8)
4. Andrew Bogut (5.6)
5. Ben Wallace (5.6)

*Dwight Howard 3.3*

Ten Worst Players (Per RAPM 2001-2014)
1. Vonteego Cummings (-9.4)
2. Byron Mullens (-9.3)
3. John Amaechi (-9.1)
4. Josh Powell (-9.1)
5. Donald Sloan (-8.9)
6. Hakim Warrick (-8.8)
7. Dennis Schroeder (-8.6)
8. Earl Clark (-8.6)
9. Tony Wroten (-8.5)
10. Jason Collier (-8)

[ceiling raiser]

Engelmann has published 14 years RAPM: from 2001 to 2014: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

KG over Duncan on defense. LJ and KG as two the most impactfull overall players and LeBron more impactfull on offense than Nash.

Good stuff, I was surprised to see Duncan come out ahead of KG in defense + overall in this thread. Thanks for the find.

[lorak]

Good stuff, I was surprised to see Duncan come out ahead of KG in defense + overall in this thread.

Probably because Colts' method is flawed - what was pointed out before, because you can't threat equally different RAPM models and data from different seasons. Really, Engelmann's results are so much different than Colts'.

[sp6r=underrated]

That is probably the worse designed site out there.

I wish Englemann would bring someone on board to help him. You can't clearly tell which lists are xrapm and which are rapm. You can't tell when he runs out of play by play data. It isn't easy to navigate.

He's done great work as a statistican but man that site blows.

[colts18]

I added top xRAPM from 1991-2014 (24 years).

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats ... -100-91-14

Code: Select all

Rank    Player    Poss    off/100    def/100    ovr/100
1    David Robinson    66382    2.12    5.67    7.79
2    LeBron James    61621    6.58    1.06    7.65
3    Tim Duncan    81972    2.45    4.94    7.39
4    Shaquille O'Neal    87045    3.86    3.18    7.03
5    Chris Paul    39094    6.09    0.47    6.55
6    Dwight Howard    52128    1.21    5.06    6.29
7    Kevin Garnett    92279    1.85    3.98    5.82
8    Ben Wallace    60040    -1.12    6.91    5.81
9    Dwyane Wade    49720    5.16    0.38    5.54
10    Dirk Nowitzki    80544    3.77    1.72    5.47
11    Manu Ginobili    40513    4.77    0.62    5.38
12    John Stockton    75845    4.57    0.64    5.20
13    Magic Johnson    8956    4.90    0.30    5.18
14    Andrei Kirilenko    44457    2.08    3.05    5.13
15    Hakeem Olajuwon    59493    0.14    4.89    5.02


Top by points above average:

Code: Select all

Rank    Player    Poss    Offense    Defense    xRAPM above average    ovr/100
1    Shaquille O'Neal    87045    3358.1    2763.9    6123.2    7.03
2    Tim Duncan    81972    2005.8    4051.5    6060.9    7.39
3    Kevin Garnett    92278.5    1710.6    3669.3    5373.5    5.82
4    David Robinson    66382    1406.6    3765.2    5173.2    7.79
5    LeBron James    61620.5    4053.3    650.9    4711.4    7.65
6    Dirk Nowitzki    80543.5    3037.7    1381.4    4406.7    5.47
7    Jason Kidd    97476    2476.7    1574.9    4063.3    4.17
8    John Stockton    75845    3462.7    485.6    3944.1    5.20
9    Karl Malone    85167.5    2000.2    1614.6    3614.9    4.24
10    Dikembe Mutombo    73084    -785.4    4328.5    3561.2    4.87
11    Ben Wallace    60039.5    -669.5    4150.8    3487.6    5.81
12    Kobe Bryant    88768.5    3808.9    -470.2    3324.6    3.75
13    Dwight Howard    52128    630.9    2638.2    3279.6    6.29
14    Paul Pierce    80190.5    2073.0    1041.2    3124.1    3.90
15    Hakeem Olajuwon    59492.5    81.4    2906.5    2987.9    5.02


[sunny]

I feel as if including possessions/minutes to some extent (not sure if a strict number, or a weighted average) to measure "impact" would be valuable.

XRAPM is not the perfect all-in-one stat ranker but I'm pretty convinced its the best (by far) of what we have.