Draft pick race to the bottom

blind prophet · Post #1 » by **blind prophet** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 3:20 pm

http://www.tankathon.com

Current standings
5̶ ̶B̶o̶s̶t̶o̶n̶s̶ ̶2̶5̶-̶5̶5̶ ̶T̶o̶p̶ ̶3̶ ̶o̶d̶d̶s̶ ̶2̶5̶.̶2̶%̶,̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶p̶i̶c̶k̶ ̶7̶.̶5̶
6̶ ̶L̶a̶k̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶2̶5̶-̶5̶5̶ ̶T̶o̶p̶ ̶3̶ ̶o̶d̶d̶s̶ ̶2̶5̶.̶5̶%̶,̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶p̶i̶c̶k̶ ̶7̶.̶6̶%̶

7 Kings 28-54 Top 3 odds 15.0% first pick 4.3%
8 Pistons 29-53 Top 3 odds 9.9% first pick 2.8%

It's official now 15% top 3, 4.3% top 3.

Lucky 7.

blind prophet · Post #2 » by **blind prophet** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 3:24 pm

We could very well lose our final 5 games.

You'll notice the Lakers have Utah, then San Antonio.

Those are winnable games with Utah, and the Spurs will most likely rest as the final game of the season, no need to win that game.

Rule for a tie in standings can be found here, they average the odds between the two teams for top 3, then coin flip if both outside of the top 3 pick

http://www.fearthesword.com/2012/4/23/2 ... tiebreaker

blind prophet · Post #3 » by **blind prophet** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 3:26 pm

With a little luck we can have a 21.5 shot at top 3 pick, or drop to 9.9 %.

It may come down to just a single game difference.

PaKwAn · Post #4 » by **PaKwAn** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 5:17 pm

I see us winning 1 or 2 games depending on the playoff positions... win against minny and if the suns are out of the playoffs they might just not care for the last game...

We might even fall to the 8th spot.. the lakers and pistons have been on a mission..

Post #5 » by **pillwenney** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 6:15 pm

I don't think it's worth hoping that we catch the Lakers. They would have to go 3-2 in the last five games, and their schedule isn't particularly easy. I could see them beating Utah, but even then I would pick Utah to win that game.

blind prophet · Post #6 » by **blind prophet** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 8:02 pm

pillwenney wrote:I don't think it's worth hoping that we catch the Lakers. They would have to go 3-2 in the last five games, and their schedule isn't particularly easy. I could see them beating Utah, but even then I would pick Utah to win that game.

Maybe we can get a tie though, but we can't win another game.

bibby1023 · Post #7 » by **bibby1023** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 9:00 pm

I'll be rooting for a loss every game for the rest of the season....what kind of fan am I!?

YC42Balla · Post #8 » by **YC42Balla** » Tue Apr 8, 2014 10:46 pm

I'm not too worried about it. With our luck, we'd win the coin flip for the 6th best odds, only to have the team with the 9.9% chance of getting a top three, leap frog us in the draft. Where ever we choose, I just hope we get a player that makes us better.

SmellingColors · Post #9 » by **SmellingColors** » Wed Apr 9, 2014 12:13 am

YC42Balla wrote:I'm not too worried about it. With our luck, we'd win the coin flip for the 6th best odds, only to have the team with the 9.9% chance of getting a top three, leap frog us in the draft. Where ever we choose, I just hope we get a player that makes us better.

Here, here. At this point I just hope whoever we get fits into what we're doing and we execute well. I wanna see DMC in the playoffs so bad.

Kings2013 · Post #10 » by **Kings2013** » Wed Apr 9, 2014 2:53 am

Personally the final seedings will really only matter in terms of top 3 %.. Whether or not we are in range for Smart as opposed to Gordon or whatever, I'm not really partial to the players in the entire range (although that may change as we get closer to draft time)

blind prophet · Post #11 » by **blind prophet** » Wed Apr 9, 2014 4:12 pm

Looks like the Pistons won, so we have a little bit of breathing room now.

SacKingsPejaFan · Post #12 » by **SacKingsPejaFan** » Wed Apr 9, 2014 9:09 pm

I think we're finishing with the highest odds to pick #7. The Lakers will probably split with Utah, lose the other games, and finish with 26 wins. So we can't catch them even if we lose the rest of ours. All I'm going to do is hope for luck with the lottery balls.

blind prophet · Post #13 » by **blind prophet** » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:00 am

1.5 games ahead of the Lakers now.

They play Golden State on Friday, big game if they upset the warriors.

Big_Cat · Post #14 » by **Big_Cat** » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:13 pm

SacKingsPejaFan wrote:I think we're finishing with the highest odds to pick #7. The Lakers will probably split with Utah, lose the other games, and finish with 26 wins. So we can't catch them even if we lose the rest of ours. All I'm going to do is hope for luck with the lottery balls.

Pretty much. We were looking at a top 3-4 pick in January/early February. Now we're trying to hold onto a 7th pick and not fall potentially down to 9th.

But don't worry. Building the winning culture we currently have is far more important than adding Randle or Smart.

blind prophet · Post #15 » by **blind prophet** » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:40 pm

Big_Cat wrote:
SacKingsPejaFan wrote:I think we're finishing with the highest odds to pick #7. The Lakers will probably split with Utah, lose the other games, and finish with 26 wins. So we can't catch them even if we lose the rest of ours. All I'm going to do is hope for luck with the lottery balls.

Pretty much. We were looking at a top 3-4 pick in January/early February. Now we're trying to hold onto a 7th pick and not fall potentially down to 9th.

But don't worry. Building the winning culture we currently have is far more important than adding Randle or Smart.

All we need is our new Kenny Thomas, JT, Carl Landry, Thornton, Hayes, Salmons, to be our great multiyear signing of the year or trade, and draft a bust....for Mallofery 2.0

Kings2013 · Post #16 » by **Kings2013** » Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:03 am

I was rooting for the team during last night's game against the Blazers but statistically that loss may be the difference between a 7 or 8 worst record. I think we will probably win one of those home games against Minny or PHx and the Pistons could lose their three remaining. Besides, it looks like that last game against PHX could determine whether the Suns are in the playoffs, I would like to root for being the spoiler without 7/8 hanging in the balance

blind prophet · Post #17 » by **blind prophet** » Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:29 am

blind prophet wrote:1.5 games ahead of the Lakers now.

They play Golden State on Friday, big game if they upset the warriors.

Lakers down by 15 at halftime.

Not looking good.

enderwilson · Post #18 » by **enderwilson** » Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:09 pm

SmellingColors wrote:
YC42Balla wrote:I'm not too worried about it. With our luck, we'd win the coin flip for the 6th best odds, only to have the team with the 9.9% chance of getting a top three, leap frog us in the draft. Where ever we choose, I just hope we get a player that makes us better.

Here, here. At this point I just hope whoever we get fits into what we're doing and we execute well. I wanna see DMC in the playoffs so bad.

Yep. I'm not even going to bother to cross my fingers about draft position. Just going to sit back and enjoy the fireworks from here to the end of the draft.

RIPskaterdude · Post #19 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Sun Apr 13, 2014 2:19 am

Pistons are doing their best to get our spot, but all we need is one more win by them (against the Raptors and OKC, good luck) or one more loss by us and we'll have the 7th spot. Lucky #7 again unless we move up or down. Sigh.

Kings2013 · Post #20 » by **Kings2013** » Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:40 pm

Pistons loss today and most likely loss in their final game at OKC puts us in a position to have to lose one of our remaining home games against Minny/Phx to have the sole 7 worst record. Tough position. I want to end the season with a good taste in everyone's mouths with everyone playing well, but on the other hand we went through a lot of stuff this season to be picking 8, and a lot of people believe the draft somewhat cuts off around 7 (though this will fluctuate)