payitforward wrote:Every 40 minutes, by way of fewer steals, more turnovers and fewer rebounds, Taj Gibson gives his team's opponent @3 more possessions of the ball -- 3 more chances to score -- than Booker does. That's just a fact, not something I'm selling. Those turnovers actually happened, they're not an interpretation I'm offering. Ditto Booker's more rebounds and steals.
Every 40 minutes Taj takes 4.8 more shots than Trevor. Those are shots that if Taj didn't take them they would be taken by another player on the Bulls. How many of those 4.8 shots does he make? He makes 1.6 of them. That's a .33 FG% on those shots -- which means that yes it would be better if another player on the Bulls took most of those shots. That scoring, in other words, is not evidence that Gibson is better than Booker.
So, every 40 minutes Taj gives the opponent 3 more chances to score than Booker does and takes 4.8 shots @ a .33 FG% that Booker, instead, lets other guys on his team take.
Now, tell me: how much better is Gibson as a defender? How much does that positive delta over Booker gain for his team? Also, can you give me some data to support the claim? I.e. do the league's PFs average a higher score vs. Booker than vs. Gibson?
Or are you just using the eye test? The "I'm watching, and I'm an expert, and I know what I see -- namely, bigger is better and Gibson is bigger"?
Still, perhaps Taj is a better defender, you may be right. And if he didn't turn it over more, steal it less, get fewer rebounds (especially on the offensive boards) and shoot too many low % shots that might make him better than Trevor.
Hmmm, maybe take a look at the efg% of all PFs who played 20+ minutes a game this year. Where is Taj? Worst 20%. Turnovers? Worst 15%. What's his salary? @ $9m. Why do you like this guy?
Do you actually watch games? Do you use anything other than your own favorite stats to draw conclusions.
Your all stats approach is a recipe for being wrong time and time again.
Perhaps Taj is a better defender? LOL, I like how you won't even acknowledge Taj's significant advantage on that end of the court. Taj is worlds away a better defender. I just don't look at stats to see that, I look at the games and see how much of positive impact Taj has on the court. He's an excellent low post defender at PF, one of the best in the league IMO.
Offensively, Taj may be less efficient but that's because he has a bigger role. No one really respects Booker's offensive skill set. Booker may be a decent mid range shooter but teams give him that shot. Booker is such a low usage player that his ability to impact games offensively is very limited. So as you post on and on about how Booker uses fewer possessions, I guess that has it's benefits but it also means his positive impact is minimal.
Unlike Booker, teams respect Gibson's mid-range game and have to account for it because of his larger role in their offensive scheme. Booker doesn't really have an offensive role other than to set picks, crash the offensive boards and stay out the damn way of the other 4 guys.
Defensively, its not even close. IMO, Booker hurts the team on this end of the court significantly because of his inability to guard in space (despite his quickness) and his struggles against guys with legit size.
Here's a list of the 10 best games Booker has had this season. Please note the competition:
12/13/2013 - Atlanta - 24 pts /14 rebs in 44 minutes
4/9/2014 - Charlotte - 16 pts /2 rebs / 5 blks on 4-5 FGs in 28 minutes
1/15/2014 - Miami - 13 pts / 11 rebs on 5-5 FGs in 28 minutes
1/1/2014 - Dallas - 10 pts / 19 rebs in 30 minutes
4/16/2014 - Boston - 20 pts / 3 rebs on 9-13 FGs in 26 minutes
2/19/2014 - Atlanta - 12 pts / 2 rebs / 4 stls on 6-8 FGs in 24 minutes
1/7/2014 - Charlotte - 12 pts / 8 rebs in 22 minutes
12/28/2013 - Detroit - 10 pts / 9 rebs / 4 asts in 31 minutes
11/01/2013 - Philadelphia - 10 pts / 8 rebs in 28 minutes
Notice a trend? Outside of Detroit (who's terrible) & Dallas, all undersized teams.
Booker works well against certain players. His success is largely dependent on his match up. An undersized PF or front line means he has an opportunity to use his athleticism and energy to hit the boards and finish around the rim. But anyone or any team with size can neutralize him pretty easily.
What does this mean? He's nothing more than a backup PF. If he's cheap and you have a solid starter in front of him then he's fine as your 4th big off the bench. Ask him to do anything more, like Chicago has been asking of Taj Gibson, he's going to struggle mightily.
I'm not big on using just one stat, but I found this to be an interesting ranking of PFs:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_ ... position/6Code: Select all
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
8 Taj Gibson CHI 82 28.7 0.85 3.65 4.50 8.94
80 Trevor Booker WSH 72 21.6 -0.70 -2.90 -3.60 -1.10I don't really know enough about this stat to truly trust it, but it does match what my eyes have been seeing.