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VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series.

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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#41 » by kayliecee » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:27 pm

Great work! A lot of work too. Thanks.
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VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#42 » by Double Helix » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:30 pm

Rather than ask VVV to screen grab these sites constantly, for those looking for constant updates, everything VVV has kindly taken screen grabs of is publicly available and often updated so just check in.

The charts and arrow diagrams are screen grabs from Synergy Sports. All you have to do is put in the 2 teams you want to compare. Same for the player comparisons. VVV went through the effort of punching in each player and screen capturing the image. That's time-consuming. If you're curious about one or two after each game just head on over to Synergy and look them up. The rest of the info is screen grabbed from NBA.com and Basketball reference.

These sites are where VVV and I commonly pull our info from. I don't yet know if Synergy will be updating playoff data for free or not but NBA.com's main stats offerings and bball ref both will. So, head on over there and play around with what's available after each game. If you're willing to install a screen grabber tool you can provide the updates you're asking for.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#43 » by DrZoidberg » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:35 pm

Asif16 wrote:
Rhettmatic wrote:
KnickerBonkerz wrote:whats with all the super long threads recently? aint nobody got time for that


Oh, your time is that valuable?

Please don't post if you have absolutely nothing to contribute.


SHOTS FIRED


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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#44 » by AkelaLoneWolf » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:37 pm

great work vvv. i can see you put a lot of effort into it.

one thing to caution though; it seems you took a lot of stats aggregate from part of the seasson, but the playoffs are more about matchups.
it's the same reason why hibbert's numbers looks like crap in comparision to jv but if you're the pacers playing against theheat you want hibbert 10/10 times.
for us the key really is to stick to our strengths instead of trying to match up with the opponents.
Nets are better than us in small ball. I hope for the love of god Casey realizes this and sticks with our lineup that can take advantage of our bigger size in the front court.
we need to run; that means we need to defend. if this is one thing casey can drill into our players' heads this would be it.
and the most important thing is tough mentality especially demar. these guys have to go in with the assumption that they're playing 5 on 8. demar can't get frustrated when he goes to teh hoop gets fouled and no call is made. he's got to fight through that as well as our young guys.
but overall keep up the great work. ur contributions are a big reason why the raps realgm board is as popular as it is.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#45 » by kieferli » Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:46 pm

I think Jason Kidd really make a big mistake and try to face us in play off. Now the pressure in their side.
They have to beat us otherwise he will become a big joke in play off.

And thank VVV good post :D
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#46 » by tommer » Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:27 pm

OP -- thanks for the exhaustive analysis.

One thing to keep in mind about some of the PPP defensive stats is that they can be influenced by each player's defensive responsibility. Despite his improvement this year does anyone rate DeRozan as an elite perimeter defender (and far superior to Ross) as the PPP stats imply?

If you look at the # of defensive plays faced this year DD (701) has fewer than TR (761) despite playing significantly more minutes. That implies what we already know, which is that TR has a much tougher nightly defensive burden than DD (and rightfully so). My guess is that Shaun Livingston's defensive PPP is similarly inflated somewhat by being entrusted with tougher defensive assignments. OP doesn't identify SL as much of a danger, but barring a fountain-of-youth resurgence from KG, he's the Net that scares me the most from a defense standpoint.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#47 » by The Duke » Fri Apr 18, 2014 1:04 am

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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#48 » by raps777 » Fri Apr 18, 2014 2:05 am

Thanks VVV. Great work.

There is a large FGA discrepency in the player comparisons. All the Raptor players have way more. Is this just because of injuries (I know the Nets had a lot) or is there something else here I am missing?
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#49 » by Arman_tanzarian » Fri Apr 18, 2014 2:35 am

KnickerBonkerz wrote:whats with all the super long threads recently? aint nobody got time for that

You should read it, it's an absolutely insane analysis done by VVV. Better than most of the stuff you see in actual articles.
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VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#50 » by Double Helix » Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:22 am

Don't know if you added more of your own analysis after your initial post as part of an edit, or if I missed some of that when I first looked over all the screen grabs but nice work there, VVV. I think you did a really nice job explaining each of the areas displayed.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#51 » by RonaldArtest » Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:40 am

Unbelievable post, OP put more effort into this than I do for a week's worth of work. Big thanks for the info!
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#52 » by firekil » Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:57 am

Sticky this please! I'm gonna need some time to go through it.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#53 » by vini_vidi_vici » Fri Apr 18, 2014 12:12 pm

Sorry for the bump, you can let it die after, just responding as I was out all day/night. Ill go all TZ and answer them all in this one post.

Ari_Emanuel wrote:VVV, great post.

I know none of us should be asking you for any favours, but throughout the series can you post in this thread with updates of where certain pre-series statistics are proving to be prescient and other relevant insights? This is sort of information overload right now but this thread would be legendary with snippets of your on going commentary.


The problem with Synergy, and one of the main reasons I used them, was they dont separate playoff/regular season basketball, so all you would be able to tell is miniscule differences in DPPP/OPPP/volume, if they reset it, I would update it after every game. And besides youll see my posts talking about the series in various threads. I will say that ill probably do a bigger one if we make it to the second round (I have a few more ideas to add), again dependent on my work schedule. As DH said, everything anyone posts here is publicly available (statistically). Thanks man.

Iamtheliquor wrote:Great work, fantastic post. Now, how do you factor in the intangibles like playoff experience which seems to be why most experts are picking against us?


You cant right, its a sports cliche. I think there might be some merit to it, but how one would go about quantifying it apart from just looking at previous postseason experience. FWIW, The Doctor had a good breakdown of the teams and their playoff experience, I cant seem to find the thread (but im half awake right now) sorry.

tommer wrote:OP -- thanks for the exhaustive analysis.

One thing to keep in mind about some of the PPP defensive stats is that they can be influenced by each player's defensive responsibility. Despite his improvement this year does anyone rate DeRozan as an elite perimeter defender (and far superior to Ross) as the PPP stats imply?

If you look at the # of defensive plays faced this year DD (701) has fewer than TR (761) despite playing significantly more minutes. That implies what we already know, which is that TR has a much tougher nightly defensive burden than DD (and rightfully so). My guess is that Shaun Livingston's defensive PPP is similarly inflated somewhat by being entrusted with tougher defensive assignments. OP doesn't identify SL as much of a danger, but barring a fountain-of-youth resurgence from KG, he's the Net that scares me the most from a defense standpoint.


Thanks for the insight. lets see if I can answer this, im just some working douche like most of you, who has an obsession with the Raps and reading statistics. Love these kind of dialogues.

I dont rate DD an elite defender because youre right its about role definition, when KL/GV guard the best PGs (unless Ross slides over with wing deficient teams), and guys like TR/JS/NDC (and even Fields in a pinch), you let him guard the lesser talents. But in doing so, hes put up some great numbers and he deserves credit for that, and atleast improving (how much is up to each poster to debate). Like you said and correctly pointed out TRs DPPP sucks because his role is to guard the best players, and it will inflate the numbers.

I disagree about SLs #s though, from what ive seen of the Nets (and admittedly its limited to Raps games, and 5-8 more games I saw on national tv), they use their bench players to matchup defensively despite their bad DPPP numbers. DG88 posted this article from SportsVU, and Alan Anderson spent the most time on DD, but to your point it did show SL was effective against DD. I think his length can cause problems, but I dont think hes a great defender (again that could be ignorance because of lack of seeing them).

I understand why hes scares you, but its tough for me to advocate SL or really any individual is scary defensively. I know alot of us had this as a grind em out series (myself included), but I think we could see alot of scoring (well in relation to the over/under lines, im probably going to take some overs this series). Ill have to delve deeper to see their real+/-, rapm, DRTG (team/individual), etc.. to really understand why they are good defensively. Thanks man, take care.

AkelaLoneWolf wrote:great work vvv. i can see you put a lot of effort into it.

one thing to caution though; it seems you took a lot of stats aggregate from part of the seasson, but the playoffs are more about matchups.
it's the same reason why hibbert's numbers looks like crap in comparision to jv but if you're the pacers playing against theheat you want hibbert 10/10 times.
for us the key really is to stick to our strengths instead of trying to match up with the opponents.
Nets are better than us in small ball. I hope for the love of god Casey realizes this and sticks with our lineup that can take advantage of our bigger size in the front court.
we need to run; that means we need to defend. if this is one thing casey can drill into our players' heads this would be it.
and the most important thing is tough mentality especially demar. these guys have to go in with the assumption that they're playing 5 on 8. demar can't get frustrated when he goes to teh hoop gets fouled and no call is made. he's got to fight through that as well as our young guys.
but overall keep up the great work. ur contributions are a big reason why the raps realgm board is as popular as it is.


First thanks, this is the stuff I love, talking basketball like this.

Yea I mean no matter which direction I went, full season, arbitrary date (Feb 1st), to their 4 match ups, youre going to find of data that probably doesnt matter much, which is why I think it got so big, I wanted to spam with as much as I could, to give you guys a better feel (more data = better results IMO). But what youre saying has merit to it.

I actually disagree about the Nets being better at small ball, most (im not implying you) say this because of their starting lineup, which is fair. But GV has been huge for us, if you take the small sample size for NDC, same thing. We have alot more depth when we go small, because KL can guard 1-2, DD can guard the 2-3-4 (dependent on whos the 4), TR can guard almost anyone outside the 5 (again dependent of whos on the floor), Salmons same thing. So if we matchup defensively, and with the way our O has been playing lately, it shouldnt be that much an issue.

With the high FTAr of each team, it will come down to DD needing to get some calls (because of his FTAr too). I agree because it and he are a big part of the offense. So the Refs unfortunately have alot to do with the outcome of this series I think. Thanks for the kind words, but its dialogue like this that makes this place special, and why I wouldnt want to post on blogs/etc.., the feedback and interesting suggestions/ideas (even in some of the bad threads, and even if its wrong) is what makes me come back. I take someones narrative and look into it, and learn all kinds of new things either justifying their point, or refuting it, but its usually interesting (well to me atleast hah).

raps777 wrote:Thanks VVV. Great work.

There is a large FGA discrepency in the player comparisons. All the Raptor players have way more. Is this just because of injuries (I know the Nets had a lot) or is there something else here I am missing?


Yea we have the least injured team in the NBA, as you know the Nets have had a tonne of injuries. Just a quick look seems to bear that out, but if I find anything interesting this week or weekend, ill PM you and let you know.

Double Helix wrote:Don't know if you added more of your own analysis after your initial post as part of an edit, or if I missed some of that when I first looked over all the screen grabs but nice work there, VVV. I think you did a really nice job explaining each of the areas displayed.


Nope it was the same post I PMed to you, I think I only inserted the top paragraph and the bottom soliciting Undefeated to break something down (which he might, he asked about it in PM, and im hoping he has the time to blow my mind again, thats the guy you need for your upcoming blog), thanks again.


For everyone, I appreciate the kind words. Ill let this die now, but please read it/refer it to it whenever. When, not if hah, we make the second round, ill def do something similar and take into account these Qs/suggestions/etc.. thanks guys. Finally my most And 1s on a post isnt "I respectedly think this is a terrible thread." or "I have so much respect for Amir. In the city, on the court, off it, the guy is just great and we are lucky to have him." considering the other stuff ive contributed with hah.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#54 » by cdel00 » Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:48 pm

Bump
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#55 » by Saul Goodman » Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:08 pm

Thinking about it now, the benches are going to be huge in this series. Head to head as far as skill goes right now we have then beat


Lowry>Dwill
Demar> Johnson
Ross< Pierce
Amir> KG
Val> Plumblee


Vasquez and Pat need to be gigantic in this series to combat Livingston/Kirilenko/Teletovic/Anderson
2016 GMAT Blazers

Howard/Nene/
Griffin/M.Leonard/T.Jones
Porter/Marc.Morris/J.Johnson
McCollum/Stauskas/Thompson/Seldon
Lillard/Bayless/DeColo
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#56 » by Hassassin » Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:11 pm

vini_vidi_vici wrote:A couple people told me to make this its own thread, so it doesnt get lost in the GT. Sorry for the length, but I warn you this is very long. This is what used to happen with the papers, id start small and then it would sprawl out and become huge. It took alot of time/work, not for some blog/etc.., but for you guys. Enjoy.

Some things I want to preface with, I used Feb 1st as the barometer (we could have used any arbitrary date), because its 36-38 games, they were close in records (23-13 vs 24-14) and to highlight that both played differently from the start of the year to close the season. Also ill be updating occasionally if I find things of interest/media guide stuff or anything you want to see added. Ill add some quick points, but im not one to insert alot of narrative/s. Right click to enlarge pictures. So im going to start with the stuff we already know.

The Raps this season are T8th in NetRTG (+3.5), T9th in DRTG (102.4), 9th in ORTG. And the Nets are 17th in NetRTG (-0.6), 19th in DRTG (104.9), 14th in ORTG (104.4) Since Feb 1st, Raps are 11th in NetRTG (+3.4), 14th in NetRTG (104.9), 6th in ORTG (108.3). The Nets are 15th in NetRTG (+1.7), 13th in DRTG (104.1), and 14th in ORTG (105.8).

You can see the D has been slipping since Feb 1st, and weve been a great offense. Whereas BK has been fairly average on both sides of the ball. This is all stuff we all know.

Team Comps.
4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom)
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Misc.
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Stats per 210 Possessions.
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Stats per 210 with Starter/Bench.
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Go To plays.
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What we see is the Raps starters are much better in every category but steals. Nets bench is better. We see that BK doesnt really exploit TORs weakness in PITP, but having said that, we dont really exploit their weakness inside either. Anything you find of interest??

Offense.
Raps Offense
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Nets Defense
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Who is vulnerable where?
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The Raps have all the advantages in the world on offense, now granted these stats include the beginning of the season, but as youve seen since Feb 1, they havent been great either. We should run alot of PnR, and possibly avoid the amount of post plays we run, seems like there isnt many sets we arent equal too or better than BK.

Raps Offense
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Since Feb 1.
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Raps Shot chart.
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Lets talk about specific matchups, ill take the starters vs who I think they will match up against. OFF vs DEF.
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
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TR (top) vs SL (bottom).
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DD (top) vs JJ (bottom).
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AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
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JV (top) vs KG(bottom).
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Sorry I have SL in the lineup because of amount of starts, I dont know who they start. This is where its going to fun to watch, DW is very good against PnR, KL is great in the PnR. This will be a tough matchup offensively for KL. But TR on the other hand should be able to abuse Livingston (assuming thats the matchup), SLs strengths and weaknesses play into TRs. If the nets matcup JJ/DD we should be fine, so much so I dont think the Nets can roll with a SL/JJ starting lineup for too many games, even if its helped them lately (SLs toe injury aside). AJ/PP is another matchup where we have a distinct advantage, PP cant keep AJ off the boards, or from moving with the ball, his worst 2 sets are PnR/SpotUps, which is where AJ excels. The Nets will have to go big, and maybe move PP to SF be successful, and who knows by game 1 they could have chosen that. JV should be able to exploit KG in the post, should be interesting to see who wins the battle in the PnR though because KG in limited mins has been successful and JVs been dominant.

Defense.
Raps Defense
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Nets Offense
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Who is vulnerable where?
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This is a fun matchup too, our slipping defense, vs their offense. Really we have alot of advantages aside from ISOs (fortunately its only 11% of their offense). We can blow up all their screen actions, and get back on transition. Should be a good matchup on both sides of the ball. Lets look at where they are scoring at.

Nets Offense
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Since Feb 1.
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Nets Shot Chart
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Starters vs who I think they will match up against. DEF vs OFF
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
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DD (top) vs SL (bottom).
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TR (top) vs JJ (bottom).
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AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
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JV (top) vs KG (bottom).
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This will come down to how well KL defends screen action, if he does well, we will probably win. Unless they use SL on KL and post him up, DD matches up so well with SL, great D in the PnR/ISOs/etc.. he sucks in SpotUps, everything SL does well DD is better defensively. Again, the Nets should stay away from the SL in the lineup. Heres where the advantage is squarely on JJ when they do go with this lineup. TR should get abused, it wont look good, its really surprising both players #s. Aslong as they dont use PP as the screen setter, this should be another advantage offensively. JVs D has been very good, KG s O has been pretty bad, so hopefully it means we can use him as a help defender on JJ/PP.

Benches.
Now what about the benches? The Raps bench was a +2.6 NetRTG, good for 7th in NBA for the whole season. The Nets bench was 18th, with a -2.8 NetRTG. Since Feb 1st, they are 14th with a +0.6 NetRTG, and the Nets bench was 16th, with a NetRTG of -0.8.

Heres some notables.

GV OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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PP OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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JS OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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TH OPPP
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DPPP
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NDC OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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Nets.
Andrei Kirilenko OPPP
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DPPP
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Marcus Thornton OPPP (as a Net)
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DPPP
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Mason Plumlee OPPP
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DPPP
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Andray Blatche OPPP
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DPPP
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Alan Anderson OPPP
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DPPP
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The Raptors have a more efficient bench, but its weird the contrasts in them. We bring in alot of facilitators/defenders (salmons/NDC/GV) and one scorer (PP), the Nets have a weak bench in OPPP and DPPP, aside from offensively Thornton/Plumlee. Really our depth has been a strength post-trade, and its really something we should be able to exploit, should KL/DD/etc.. falter or have rough stretches.

Previous Games against eachother.
So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups.
Game 1 (BK 102 @ TOR 100)
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Game 2 (BK 80 @ TOR 96)
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Game 3 (TOR 104 @ BK 103)
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Game 4 (TOR 97 @ BK 101)
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4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
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Misc. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
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Player Stats (Heres the raw numbers, Raps or Nets.)
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On/Off
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JV hasnt fared well against them, but most of the others are gone/not in rotation. Our bench has been very effective against them specifically. DW/Blatche/PP/Plumlee has been extremely effective while on court, so thats a big concern. Its really to me coming down to how well we defend DW, whether thats with KL/TR/GV/etc.. that gives the biggest chance for the Nets, but who didnt know that. I do think fouls will come into play, because both teams draw alot of them in relation to their offense, but again thats every game.

Conclusion: You made it this far? Its going to be a close series in terms of score, but I really think we have the ability to exploit alot of matchups. I really like the Raptors in 6. What say you? anything I missed you wanted to touch on?? Tl;dr?? Thanks for the help Veez.

As an aside, it would be nice if someone can look at the Deron Williams games, and specifically the PnR against us, and do an Undefeated/Sebastian Pruiti type breakdown.


Great work VVV. I put up an infographic last night on how the Raps played D versus the Nets this season. Interior defense is a huge concern.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#57 » by fredericklove » Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:12 pm

Great effort.
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#58 » by arbsn » Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:16 pm

Great work.

It seems to me your summary analysis of the benches comes to the wrong conclusion. From my analysis, Nets have a much stronger bench than the Raptors despite Raps having a decent bench relative to the league.

Bench is what swings the series in Brooklyn's favor. The trouble is determining who is actually on the Nets bench (as they play a lot of guys 20-30 minutes - which could also be a benefit or disadvantage depending on how you look at it). You could argue Blatche is their best player off the bench (who is dominating bench lineups). Thorton, Teletovic can go 'off' offensively. Plumlee, can be a starter if they play big or a solid replacement for KG if they play small (with Paul Pierce at the 4) .

Most likely scenario is Nets start with: DWill/Livingston/JJ/PP/KG
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#59 » by J-Roc » Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:19 pm

vini_vidi_vici wrote:A couple people told me to make this its own thread, so it doesnt get lost in the GT. Sorry for the length, but I warn you this is very long. This is what used to happen with the papers, id start small and then it would sprawl out and become huge. It took alot of time/work, not for some blog/etc.., but for you guys. Enjoy.

Some things I want to preface with, I used Feb 1st as the barometer (we could have used any arbitrary date), because its 36-38 games, they were close in records (23-13 vs 24-14) and to highlight that both played differently from the start of the year to close the season. Also ill be updating occasionally if I find things of interest/media guide stuff or anything you want to see added. Ill add some quick points, but im not one to insert alot of narrative/s. Right click to enlarge pictures. So im going to start with the stuff we already know.

The Raps this season are T8th in NetRTG (+3.5), T9th in DRTG (102.4), 9th in ORTG. And the Nets are 17th in NetRTG (-0.6), 19th in DRTG (104.9), 14th in ORTG (104.4) Since Feb 1st, Raps are 11th in NetRTG (+3.4), 14th in NetRTG (104.9), 6th in ORTG (108.3). The Nets are 15th in NetRTG (+1.7), 13th in DRTG (104.1), and 14th in ORTG (105.8).

You can see the D has been slipping since Feb 1st, and weve been a great offense. Whereas BK has been fairly average on both sides of the ball. This is all stuff we all know.

Team Comps.
4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom)
Image
Image
Misc.
Image
Image
Stats per 210 Possessions.
Image
Image
Stats per 210 with Starter/Bench.
Image
Image
Go To plays.
Image

What we see is the Raps starters are much better in every category but steals. Nets bench is better. We see that BK doesnt really exploit TORs weakness in PITP, but having said that, we dont really exploit their weakness inside either. Anything you find of interest??

Offense.
Raps Offense
Image

Nets Defense
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Who is vulnerable where?
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The Raps have all the advantages in the world on offense, now granted these stats include the beginning of the season, but as youve seen since Feb 1, they havent been great either. We should run alot of PnR, and possibly avoid the amount of post plays we run, seems like there isnt many sets we arent equal too or better than BK.

Raps Offense
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Since Feb 1.
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Raps Shot chart.
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Lets talk about specific matchups, ill take the starters vs who I think they will match up against. OFF vs DEF.
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
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TR (top) vs SL (bottom).
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DD (top) vs JJ (bottom).
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AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
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JV (top) vs KG(bottom).
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Sorry I have SL in the lineup because of amount of starts, I dont know who they start. This is where its going to fun to watch, DW is very good against PnR, KL is great in the PnR. This will be a tough matchup offensively for KL. But TR on the other hand should be able to abuse Livingston (assuming thats the matchup), SLs strengths and weaknesses play into TRs. If the nets matcup JJ/DD we should be fine, so much so I dont think the Nets can roll with a SL/JJ starting lineup for too many games, even if its helped them lately (SLs toe injury aside). AJ/PP is another matchup where we have a distinct advantage, PP cant keep AJ off the boards, or from moving with the ball, his worst 2 sets are PnR/SpotUps, which is where AJ excels. The Nets will have to go big, and maybe move PP to SF be successful, and who knows by game 1 they could have chosen that. JV should be able to exploit KG in the post, should be interesting to see who wins the battle in the PnR though because KG in limited mins has been successful and JVs been dominant.

Defense.
Raps Defense
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Nets Offense
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Who is vulnerable where?
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This is a fun matchup too, our slipping defense, vs their offense. Really we have alot of advantages aside from ISOs (fortunately its only 11% of their offense). We can blow up all their screen actions, and get back on transition. Should be a good matchup on both sides of the ball. Lets look at where they are scoring at.

Nets Offense
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Since Feb 1.
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Nets Shot Chart
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Starters vs who I think they will match up against. DEF vs OFF
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
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DD (top) vs SL (bottom).
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TR (top) vs JJ (bottom).
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AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
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JV (top) vs KG (bottom).
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This will come down to how well KL defends screen action, if he does well, we will probably win. Unless they use SL on KL and post him up, DD matches up so well with SL, great D in the PnR/ISOs/etc.. he sucks in SpotUps, everything SL does well DD is better defensively. Again, the Nets should stay away from the SL in the lineup. Heres where the advantage is squarely on JJ when they do go with this lineup. TR should get abused, it wont look good, its really surprising both players #s. Aslong as they dont use PP as the screen setter, this should be another advantage offensively. JVs D has been very good, KG s O has been pretty bad, so hopefully it means we can use him as a help defender on JJ/PP.

Benches.
Now what about the benches? The Raps bench was a +2.6 NetRTG, good for 7th in NBA for the whole season. The Nets bench was 18th, with a -2.8 NetRTG. Since Feb 1st, they are 14th with a +0.6 NetRTG, and the Nets bench was 16th, with a NetRTG of -0.8.

Heres some notables.

GV OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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PP OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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JS OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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TH OPPP
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DPPP
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NDC OPPP (as a Rap)
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DPPP
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Nets.
Andrei Kirilenko OPPP
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DPPP
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Marcus Thornton OPPP (as a Net)
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DPPP
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Mason Plumlee OPPP
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DPPP
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Andray Blatche OPPP
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DPPP
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Alan Anderson OPPP
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DPPP
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The Raptors have a more efficient bench, but its weird the contrasts in them. We bring in alot of facilitators/defenders (salmons/NDC/GV) and one scorer (PP), the Nets have a weak bench in OPPP and DPPP, aside from offensively Thornton/Plumlee. Really our depth has been a strength post-trade, and its really something we should be able to exploit, should KL/DD/etc.. falter or have rough stretches.

Previous Games against eachother.
So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups.
Game 1 (BK 102 @ TOR 100)
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Game 2 (BK 80 @ TOR 96)
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Game 3 (TOR 104 @ BK 103)
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Game 4 (TOR 97 @ BK 101)
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4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
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Misc. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
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Player Stats (Heres the raw numbers, Raps or Nets.)
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On/Off
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JV hasnt fared well against them, but most of the others are gone/not in rotation. Our bench has been very effective against them specifically. DW/Blatche/PP/Plumlee has been extremely effective while on court, so thats a big concern. Its really to me coming down to how well we defend DW, whether thats with KL/TR/GV/etc.. that gives the biggest chance for the Nets, but who didnt know that. I do think fouls will come into play, because both teams draw alot of them in relation to their offense, but again thats every game.

Conclusion: You made it this far? Its going to be a close series in terms of score, but I really think we have the ability to exploit alot of matchups. I really like the Raptors in 6. What say you? anything I missed you wanted to touch on?? Tl;dr?? Thanks for the help Veez.

As an aside, it would be nice if someone can look at the Deron Williams games, and specifically the PnR against us, and do an Undefeated/Sebastian Pruiti type breakdown.


VVV, in your third paragraph, the link, Raps are 14th in Def RTG since Feb 1st.
dublo7
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Re: VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series. 

Post#60 » by dublo7 » Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Actually, I was looking for an in-depth analysis of the Nets - Raps matchup.

j/k thanks for the info! :nod:
Free advice is seldom cheap. ROA#59

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