Drake vs. Jay-Z: Keys to Raptors/Nets

[Jack_Bauer]

Raptors fan here. I come in peace and apologize for any Raps fans who may have been taking trash on your board. Team pride is great, but so is respecting your opponents. That's why I decided to post here. Since I haven't watched many Brooklyn games, I'm looking for your opinions on how Toronto and Brooklyn matchup. My thoughts are summarized below. (I apologize in advance for my ridiculously long post. I'm just pumped for the series!).

I think Toronto and Brooklyn match up very evenly: they both play at a similar pace, rely on three's, and have been playing excellent ball in 2014. I kind of sucks that the Raptors have such a tough first round matchup. It would be amazing for the city to get out of the first round and do some damage, but we have a tough road ahead. However, it's also great opportunity for the Raptors to test themselves against an experienced team in front of a national US audience. If we can pull it off, I think Toronto will gain a lot of respect league-wide... until LBJ eviscerates them in the 2nd round. Anyways, here are my keys to the series:

- Big vs. Small: Casey can't acquiesce Kidd by going small. If Amir and Patterson can stay in front of Pierce and somewhat contain him, Toronto will have a clear size advantage. Toronto's been an above average rebounding team can exploit this mismatch on the offensive glass. Amir did a great job guarding against Durant a few weeks, but KD settled for threes and Pierce is much craftier. Amir is mobile, but I don’t know if he can stay in front of Pierce. Toronto has horrible depth on the wings, so it’s going to be key to keep our bigs on the floor instead of relying on Salmons/Fields/De Colo to play heavy minutes. That way we can give Hansbrough some run at the five. His toughness and experience (most playoff games on the team lol) will be needed.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3glhpT8s4z0[/youtube]

- Threes: Both teams have eerily similar stats since Jan 1st: they both rely on threes as a large part of their offense (27-28% of points scored), shoot a very good percentage beyond the arc (Toronto has a slight edge, 38.4% to 36.8%) and are very good at limiting opponents’ 3FG% (both are around 35%). Brooklyn relies more on assisted threes and neither team scores much in the paint, so it will be a real back and forth beyond the arc. Whichever team is cold from three will lose. Do you think Brooklyn's offense will change much from this?

- Brooklyn's Length and Limiting Turnovers: Livingston, JJ, Pierce, and AK have a lot of length, which could give us problems. Since Jan 1, Brooklyn leads the league in points off turnovers, and Toronto has been middle of the pack at taking care of the basketball. I can see Vasquez/Demar/Val having a lot of TOs in the series. It will be imperative that Toronto limit TOs if they want to have a chance in the series.

- Defense and Cross-matchups: Avoiding Chi/Indy's elite defenses was probably why Kidd threw away the past two games, but when Toronto is healthy and "on", their defense is just a tier below Chi/Indy (imo). Since Jan 1st, Toronto is 10th in DefRtg. The defense has been slipping the last couple of weeks, but if Amir is healthy I'm hopeful he can get it back to its previously high level. Brooklyn's defense has been just as good (12th in efficiency). What's been the key to Brooklyn's defense? I remember one game JJ did whatever he wanted on the P&R. Adding Livingston and having DWill play off ball has added a huge dimension to your offense. Lowry and Ross are our best perimeter defenders, but I don't know if Lowry can guard Livingston. Any one of your perimeter players can torch Demar, which worries me. Toronto's offense has been slightly better since Jan 1st (9th vs. 13th), but if we are getting torched on the perimeter (a theme the past few games), Brooklyn will get anything they want and score at will.

- Transition: While both teams play at a similar pace and are even in terms of points scored/given up in transition, I feel this an area Toronto has to exploit to its advantage. Ross, Lowry, DD are all deadly in transition. Toronto is young and if they look to run, it could problems for Brooklyn. Do you agree?

- Home court: Home court matters much more to Toronto. Any team with Pierce/KG can win on the road when it needs to. I don't think Brooklyn will be fazed coming into Toronto, but I was surprised to see Brooklyn's poor road record (16-25). Toronto's tied with Washington and Miami for the best road record in the East (22-19). It's important for Toronto to handle its business and win both games at home. If the series goes to Brooklyn tied 1-1, it's going to be tough to steal a game at Barclay’s. (Aside: Outside our arena is a pretty cool spot where fans can gather to watch the game. It was nuts during the Leafs series last year and I think it's going to be lively again this year. Hopefully, they show clips of it during the broadcast since it's neat to see.)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDxQ4IbgnX8[/youtube]

- Free Throws: You may have noticed people on our board wetting themselves over the refs and "bias" towards veterans. I don't really buy this. The Raptors are second in the league in personal fouls committed. If Brooklyn gets a lot of free throws, it will be because Toronto fouls them. I was surprised to see that Brooklyn is “meh” at FT% (75.3%). For reference, Toronto is fifth in the league at 78.2%. My hope is that Toronto can build up a lead going into the finals two minutes, so they can ice game with FT’s. But if it’s close, I don’t have much faith in our ability to execute late in games. Demar, Lowry, Val, and Hansbrough are all very apt at getting to the line and can (hopefully) even up any foul disparity.

- Our Best Hopes: Lowry has the biggest balls in the league. I absolutely love him. He's the heart and soul of our team (Amir's the glue). Post ASG, he's averaging 20-5-7 on 41/37/83 shooting and has a 2.53 A/TO ratio. He makes big shots when we need them and takes key charges to swing momentum. I can see him winning a game or two for us on sheer will and determination. He’s a gamer. And then there's Demar! It's so great to see a homegrown player come into his own. Our board is divided on him, some think he's an inefficient chucker that isn't clutch and we should trade him for a lottery pick. But he's carried our offense since the Rudy Gay trade, averaging 23-4-4 and 9 free throws attempted since the ASG. Lowry and Demar are the keys to our offense, when they're clicking they make life easier for everyone else (and allow Ross to get open looks). I'm excited to see if Demar can elevate his game in the playoffs. Both Vince Carter and Chris Bosh struggled in their first playoff series, hopefully it isn't a trend.

- Wildcard: Some on our board are very anti-Casey, but he's done a great job this year and has playoff experience as an assistant (went to the finals in the 90's with the Sonics and in 2011 with the Mavs). I hope we have the coaching advantage over Brooklyn, but I honestly don't know how Kidd is as a coach.

Final Verdict
Overall, I think Raps have a slight edge (I know, I'm a homer), but Brooklyn's experience will even everything out (especially in close games), which is why it kills me to say Brooklyn will in in seven. I hope I'm wrong, but it's going to be a fun series to watch. Hopefully my post has given you insights into the Raptors. Good luck! Let me know what y'all think! If Chuck Hayes is getting regular minutes, god help us all.

[DarkXaero]

Good post, some good breakdown there. IMO, it all comes down to our ability to win on the road. The regular season record was pretty poor for road wins, but I think with a veteran team like this, it kinda goes out the window in playoffs. A lot of it was circumstantial anyway, with back to backs and that 3 overtime game stretch on the road.

We need to contain Lowry, first and foremost, we can't have him become a superstar against us again. There's not much you can do when he starts hitting those ridiculous 3s, but Deron has to step up his game and play like the star he's supposed to be. He has been very disappointing lately. We also have to worry about the role players like Ross and Valanciunas. I'm not as worried about DeRozan, I think we can force him into his mid range jumpers and contain him, especially with Livingston on him.

I think we have a clear bench advantage, but our bench still has to show up. Thornton is extremely streaky, and Mirza can be streaky as well.

[Jack_Bauer]

A much better breakdown than mine

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-ETWhyV5Ps[/youtube]

[Prokorov]

A much better breakdown than mine

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-ETWhyV5Ps[/youtube]

i dont really like that breakdown. he really misses all the things the nets do well, and what they dont do so well. he didnt get into rebounding and second chances at all. he didnt get into post offense from our back court. he didnt get into our bigs inability to gaurd without fouling.

he brings up some good points, but i dont see the series really coming down to any of what he mentioned, other then lowry/vazques in the pick and roll