Official Trade Thread - Part XXVII

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I keep reading what seems like one bad idea after another here, and I don't get it. We need to build for the future, not acquire a guy like Dunleavy who will turn 34 this Summer.

For that matter, the combination of Dunleavy and Gibson is likely to cost about the same as the combination of Ariza and Booker, each of whom has produced more than his Bulls counterpart. Substitute Dunleavy and Gibson in the minutes Ariza and Booker played for us this year, and we'd likely be a few losses light.

In Booker's case, he shoots a higher TS%, rebounds more, steals more, and turns it over less. The delta of higher usage in Gibson's case is extremely inefficient -- he uses up opportunities that should be used more efficiently.

In Ariza's case, he's both more efficient and higher usage than Dunleavy -- and it isn't even close. He's a much better, much younger player. Will he remain as good as he was this year? I don't know. But I do know that guys Dunleavy's age get worse in a hurry.

I think the reason for all these weird ideas is that we essentlally don't have any assets to trade. We're pinning our dreams on guys, because we can't trade for guys better than they are.

The 6 most productive players on this team minute for minute have been Wall, Gortat, Ariza, Gooden, Booker, and Miller. Wall is the only one who is in place long-term. Gooden will be cheap, but like Miller he is a limited-minutes player -- way past his prime. Gortat, Ariza and Booker are all in play; they are questions for next year.

We have 5 guys who mean absolutely nothing to our future: Seraphin, Temple, Rice, Singleton & Harrington. It would be right to put Nene on that list too, as he's had a poor season, been injured again (a lot of years in a row...), puts up few minutes therefore, and is colossally over-paid.

That leaves Beal, who has tremendous potential, Porter, who may have a lot of potential, and Webster, who has slipped this year.

What assets do you think we have to trade that would bring us anything to speak of? We are more likely to keep adding end-of-career guys and therefore never really contend for a title year after year.

If I were Wizards GM, I would offer Nene and Webster for Pau.

I would resign Ariza and Gortat. Depending on contracts, I would bring Seraphin back over Booker, and play Kevin a lot at PF.

I would look to draft either Cory Jefferson, Darnell Stokes, Olivier Hanlan, ot Deonte Burton.

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[LyricalRico]

Isn't Pau an FA now? Not sure LA is looking to do sign-and-trades at this point, especially if it compromises 2015 options (assuming that's their plan).

[WallToWall]

Isn't Pau an FA now? Not sure LA is looking to do sign-and-trades at this point, especially if it compromises 2015 options (assuming that's their plan).

Yes, and I would want the Wiz to go after him. Next to Gortat, he would do well. Gasol has another maybe 3 year left before a major decline, if he pays 25-30mins a game. This would allow Nene to come off the bench and get his 25-28mins.

[montestewart]

Isn't Pau an FA now? Not sure LA is looking to do sign-and-trades at this point, especially if it compromises 2015 options (assuming that's their plan).

Yes, and I would want the Wiz to go after him. Next to Gortat, he would do well. Gasol has another maybe 3 year left before a major decline, if he pays 25-30mins a game. This would allow Nene to come off the bench and get his 25-28mins.

Wizards pay more than $45 million for six players next year: Wall, Nene, Beal, Webster, Miller, Porter. Picking up Booker's option (have they done that? They should) brings in to about $49 million. What do Gasol and Gortat get? I would guess $20 million+ per year between them, which would leave just enough to fill out the roster (no Ariza, or course). Is that really the direction to go?

[LyricalRico]

We could S&T Ariza for Gasol if he really wanted to come here and Ariza wanted to go back to LA. Let's us keep Gortat's rights. Wouldn't be my first choice, though.

[payitforward]

If I were Wizards GM, I would offer Nene and Webster for Pau.

I would resign Ariza and Gortat. Depending on contracts, I would bring Seraphin back over Booker, and play Kevin a lot at PF.

I would look to draft either Cory Jefferson, Darnell Stokes, Oliveir Hanlan, ot Deonte Burton.

Can't trade for Pau, CCJ -- he's an unrestricted FA. And anyway, I don't see the Lakers (a rebuilding team) wanting to take on Nene's enormous salary, reduced production, injury history, etc.

Seraphin over Booker -- take a couple of minutes and compare the numbers they put up. I liked the Seraphin pick in 2010; he was the guy I wanted for us there, and I whooped happily when I heard his name called. I even -- maybe especially -- liked that he was French. I'm fluent in that language; it was a big plus for me. I had a dream that we acquired Batum, signed Beaubois, and a couple of other guys and could field an all-French team!!

But, KS hasn't developed much as a player, if at all. Look at his numbers -- they've stayed almost exactly the same over his 4 years. The only improvement has been in his FT%.

Moreover, Seraphin committed over 7 fouls every 40 minutes last year!! You can't "play Kevin a lot" at any position! And if you play a big who gets under 9 boards and turns it over almost 3 times per 40 minutes, you are giving your opponent a huge advantage over you.

So... no, I think Seraphin can be let go w/ no loss of production. I do like your R2 calls, however -- especially Stokes and Hanlan (but I don't know that he's declaring for the draft -- hasn't yet).

Stokes just turned 20, yet he's got 3 years of college ball under his belt, and he puts up outstanding numbers. Why he is projected (by DR at least) down at #49 I have no idea. He's low risk and bigtime upside.

Hanlan is an incredibly efficient scorer. But is he coming out this year?

[WallToWall]

I dont think Pau will be looking for major $$, if he thinks whatever team he goes to has a chance to win, and if he remains a starter. He's the kind of player that needs touches. One of the things we are missing is a big that can pass the ball, and Pau can do that pretty well for a big. He is also good on the pick and roll. Imagine a pick and roll with a kick out to Beal for a corner 3, if Pau gets double teamed. He is still pretty good at rebounding, getting ~9/game. Providing we get Gortat to stay, then the next 3 years will look pretty good with a Gortat and Gasol front line. Pau is average on D...and he does sometimes look like Antwan Jamison on D....which will drive a lot of us, including me, crazy. We can have Nene and Booker, if we can get him to stay, and/or Gooden as backups, when we need a defensive PF in the game. Gasol can play spot duty at C, although he hates it, he can still play 5 mins/game. Gasol has won championships...he has a clue about what it takes.

Wall is entering his prime. He needs to be surrounded by players who are mature, know what it takes to win in the regular season, in the playoff and, how to get a championship. The window to win a championship starts about right now. It will stay open for maybe another 6 years.

So yes, we need a player like Gasol. He is starter material for 3 years max and a backup for another 3 years.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Isn't Pau an FA now? Not sure LA is looking to do sign-and-trades at this point, especially if it compromises 2015 options (assuming that's their plan).

I think Nene being now a short deal might fit in their Kobe window.

If D'Antoni isn't fired, I don't see why they WOULDN'T sign-and-trade Pau. He is an UFA.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I dont think Pau will be looking for major $$, if he thinks whatever team he goes to has a chance to win, and if he remains a starter. He's the kind of player that needs touches. One of the things we are missing is a big that can pass the ball, and Pau can do that pretty well for a big. He is also good on the pick and roll. Imagine a pick and roll with a kick out to Beal for a corner 3, if Pau gets double teamed. He is still pretty good at rebounding, getting ~9/game. Providing we get Gortat to stay, then the next 3 years will look pretty good with a Gortat and Gasol front line. Pau is average on D...and he does sometimes look like Antwan Jamison on D....which will drive a lot of us, including me, crazy. We can have Nene and Booker, if we can get him to stay, and/or Gooden as backups, when we need a defensive PF in the game. Gasol can play spot duty at C, although he hates it, he can still play 5 mins/game. Gasol has won championships...he has a clue about what it takes.

Wall is entering his prime. He needs to be surrounded by players who are mature, know what it takes to win in the regular season, in the playoff and, how to get a championship. The window to win a championship starts about right now. It will stay open for maybe another 6 years.

So yes, we need a player like Gasol. He is starter material for 3 years max and a backup for another 3 years.

Also, Pau and Trevor Ariza were on one LAL championship team together.

Last, Pau's passing can hopefully turn Beal into a Ray Allen-lite open shooter.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Can't trade for Pau, CCJ -- he's an unrestricted FA. And anyway, I don't see the Lakers (a rebuilding team) wanting to take on Nene's enormous salary, reduced production, injury history, etc.

If we can't trade for Pau, then simply acquire him in Ariza's slot. Still resign Gortat.

Personally, I think the Lakers want to win now with Kobe. I think Nene is going to help the Wizards get past the Bulls. I think Nene only having 2 more seasons will fit perfectly with the Laker plans. They'll bring back Nick Young. A quick big like Nene will fit D'Antoni's offense MUCH better than Pau. He's also a better defender. I think the void by Pau's even more enormous salary will make Nene's deal look very reasonable.

Seraphin over Booker -- take a couple of minutes and compare the numbers they put up. I liked the Seraphin pick in 2010; he was the guy I wanted for us there, and I whooped happily when I heard his name called. I even -- maybe especially -- liked that he was French. I'm fluent in that language; it was a big plus for me. I had a dream that we acquired Batum, signed Beaubois, and a couple of other guys and could field an all-French team!!

But, KS hasn't developed much as a player, if at all. Look at his numbers -- they've stayed almost exactly the same over his 4 years. The only improvement has been in his FT%.

Moreover, Seraphin committed over 7 fouls every 40 minutes last year!! You can't "play Kevin a lot" at any position! And if you play a big who gets under 9 boards and turns it over almost 3 times per 40 minutes, you are giving your opponent a huge advantage over you.

So... no, I think Seraphin can be let go w/ no loss of production.

Take a look at what Seraphin did before the OkaRiza deal. When you get past the consecutive double doubles and his defensive rating, then try and re-read all you just said about his fouls.

Seraphin was fine until the Wizards mucked up his career bringing in Okafor along with Nene. Kevin LOVED playing next to Nene. He STARTED MANY GAMES and the WIZARDS WON MANY TIMES.

I don't care what his stats say. Seraphin needs a new start. He can score. He can hold position on the block. He's probably better IMO at PF than C. I think he's bigger, younger, and potentially better than Booker. Because he can score at the C position I value him. I still remember him rejecting DeMarcus Cousins and pretty much laughing at Cousins. Seraphin has been sabotaged by ineptitude IMO.

..... I do like your R2 calls, however -- especially Stokes and Hanlan (but I don't know that he's declaring for the draft -- hasn't yet).

Stokes just turned 20, yet he's got 3 years of college ball under his belt, and he puts up outstanding numbers. Why he is projected (by DR at least) down at #49 I have no idea. He's low risk and bigtime upside.

Hanlan is an incredibly efficient scorer. But is he coming out this year?

I think Hanlan might be better than Beal. He and Nik Stauskas are pretty interesting shooters.

[LyricalRico]

Isn't Pau an FA now? Not sure LA is looking to do sign-and-trades at this point, especially if it compromises 2015 options (assuming that's their plan).

I think Nene being now a short deal might fit in their Kobe window.

If D'Antoni isn't fired, I don't see why they WOULDN'T sign-and-trade Pau. He is an UFA.

Interesting point about Nene's contract. I guess they could keep the rights to all their expiring guys and try to do sign and trades for players with 2 years left on their deals to make some last runs with Kobe. They can also offer Nash.

Nene
OJ Mayo
Arron Afflalo
Jeff Green
D. Gallinari
Wilson Chandler
Steve Novak
David Lee
Ryan Anderson

If they can retain a couple of guys like Hill and Marshall, pick up a few of those guys, plus their lottery pick and a healthy Kobe, they would be much improved and would be able to do a complete reboot in 2016.

Nene/Hill
Lee/Novak
Green/Chandler
Kobe/Exum
Marshall/FA

Not sure if that specific lineup is possible, but you get the idea.

[nate33]

Can't trade for Pau, CCJ -- he's an unrestricted FA. And anyway, I don't see the Lakers (a rebuilding team) wanting to take on Nene's enormous salary, reduced production, injury history, etc.

If we can't trade for Pau, then simply acquire him in Ariza's slot. Still resign Gortat.

It doesn't work that way. Ariza has no salary "slot". We have $18M in cap room if we renounce everybody (including Andre Miller, and that would cost $2M in a buyout). Gortat will probably cost $12M to resign. That leaves just $6M. It is doubtful that Gasol signs here for $6M. And even if he did so, we would have no cap room and no exceptions left to fill the roster. We would have a $63M payroll consisting only of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Gasol, Gortat, Nene, Webster, Porter and Rice. No backup PGs. Only 3 big men (all of whom are over 30). The rest of the roster would be vet minimum guys.

Gasol as a free agent isn't happening.

Frankly, I'm not very excited about the prospect of adding yet another lane-clogging big man on the wrong side of 32. It's a terrible idea. We could upgrade it to merely a "bad idea" if we first managed to trade Nene, but IMO, even if we traded Nene, I wouldn't be looking to replace him with Nene Part II. The idea here is to get younger and build for a future. Not keep adding veteran stop-gaps at high prices who will predictably decline after donning the uniform.

[nate33]

Another issue with this Pau Gasol S&T idea:

And S&T guy must by inked to a contract lasting at least 3 years. Even if we somehow traded Nene for a S&T'd Pau Gasol, we're talking about exchanging a 31-year-old with 2 years left on his deal for a 33-year-old with 3 years on his new deal. I'd much rather have Nene. At least his contract expires in time for the 2016 free agent bonanza.

That said, it would be interesting to place a phone call to LA to see if they would simply take Nene off our hands for nothing. The idea, as mentioned by Rico above, would be for LA to remain a relevant team for the next 2 years while maintaining salary flexibility in 2016. Nene is perfect for this because he remains a very good player (when healthy) yet his contract expires in 2 years.

I'm not sure if I would pull the trigger though. What exactly would WE do with that cap room? It seems to me we're in the same position as the Lakers. We want to remain a playoff team for the next couple of years while also maintaining the cap flexibility to acquire a significant free agent in either 2015 or 2016.

I think this type of deal (dumping Nene) would only make sense if we thought Chris Bosh or Melo would come here.

[mhd]

Another issue with this Pau Gasol S&T idea:

And S&T guy must by inked to a contract lasting at least 3 years. Even if we somehow traded Nene for a S&T'd Pau Gasol, we're talking about exchanging a 31-year-old with 2 years left on his deal for a 33-year-old with 3 years on his new deal. I'd much rather have Nene. At least his contract expires in time for the 2016 free agent bonanza.

That said, it would be interesting to place a phone call to LA to see if they would simply take Nene off our hands for nothing. The idea, as mentioned by Rico above, would be for LA to remain a relevant team for the next 2 years while maintaining salary flexibility in 2016. Nene is perfect for this because he remains a very good player (when healthy) yet his contract expires in 2 years.

I'm not sure if I would pull the trigger though. What exactly would WE do with that cap room? It seems to me we're in the same position as the Lakers. We want to remain a playoff team for the next couple of years while also maintaining the cap flexibility to acquire a significant free agent in either 2015 or 2016.

I think this type of deal (dumping Nene) would only make sense if we thought Chris Bosh or Melo would come here.

Wait for Love in 2015?

EDIT: I don't see the Lakers as a realistic option for Nene b/c they want to preserve cap space for Love.

[stevemcqueen1]

We could go after Greg Monroe nate. Extend Gortat and get Monroe too.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Can't trade for Pau, CCJ -- he's an unrestricted FA. And anyway, I don't see the Lakers (a rebuilding team) wanting to take on Nene's enormous salary, reduced production, injury history, etc.

If we can't trade for Pau, then simply acquire him in Ariza's slot. Still resign Gortat.

It doesn't work that way. Ariza has no salary "slot". We have $18M in cap room if we renounce everybody (including Andre Miller, and that would cost $2M in a buyout). Gortat will probably cost $12M to resign. That leaves just $6M. It is doubtful that Gasol signs here for $6M. And even if he did so, we would have no cap room and no exceptions left to fill the roster. We would have a $63M payroll consisting only of Wall, Beal, Ariza, Gasol, Gortat, Nene, Webster, Porter and Rice. No backup PGs. Only 3 big men (all of whom are over 30). The rest of the roster would be vet minimum guys.

Gasol as a free agent isn't happening.

Frankly, I'm not very excited about the prospect of adding yet another lane-clogging big man on the wrong side of 32. It's a terrible idea. We could upgrade it to merely a "bad idea" if we first managed to trade Nene, but IMO, even if we traded Nene, I wouldn't be looking to replace him with Nene Part II. The idea here is to get younger and build for a future. Not keep adding veteran stop-gaps at high prices who will predictably decline after donning the uniform.

Nate33, I have to learn about the salary cap. Like being ignorant of the and thus loving the wrong woman its been a weakness. Knowledge is power. Can't keep saying I don't know. ...

Thanks for enlightening me on why Gasol as a FA isn't happening.

Nate, I think simply adding a young guy like Arnett Moultrie or Andrew Nicholson would meet your wishes.




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[montestewart]

Nate33, I have to learn about the salary cap. Like being ignorant of the and thus loving the wrong woman its been a weakness. Knowledge is power. Can't keep saying I don't know. …

Salary cap, you can't trust it.

[fishercob]

Nate33, I have to learn about the salary cap. Like being ignorant of the and thus loving the wrong woman its been a weakness. Knowledge is power. Can't keep saying I don't know. …

Salary cap, you can't trust it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am9BqZ6eA5c&feature=kp[/youtube]

[Dat2U]

I dont think Pau will be looking for major $$, if he thinks whatever team he goes to has a chance to win, and if he remains a starter. He's the kind of player that needs touches. One of the things we are missing is a big that can pass the ball, and Pau can do that pretty well for a big. He is also good on the pick and roll. Imagine a pick and roll with a kick out to Beal for a corner 3, if Pau gets double teamed. He is still pretty good at rebounding, getting ~9/game. Providing we get Gortat to stay, then the next 3 years will look pretty good with a Gortat and Gasol front line. Pau is average on D...and he does sometimes look like Antwan Jamison on D....which will drive a lot of us, including me, crazy. We can have Nene and Booker, if we can get him to stay, and/or Gooden as backups, when we need a defensive PF in the game. Gasol can play spot duty at C, although he hates it, he can still play 5 mins/game. Gasol has won championships...he has a clue about what it takes.

Wall is entering his prime. He needs to be surrounded by players who are mature, know what it takes to win in the regular season, in the playoff and, how to get a championship. The window to win a championship starts about right now. It will stay open for maybe another 6 years.

So yes, we need a player like Gasol. He is starter material for 3 years max and a backup for another 3 years.

Am I the only one thinking Pau Gasol is going to end up with his brother in Memphis?

With Zach Randolph being a free agent as well I think it's almost a no-brainer he ends up there.

[Ruzious]

I dont think Pau will be looking for major $$, if he thinks whatever team he goes to has a chance to win, and if he remains a starter. He's the kind of player that needs touches. One of the things we are missing is a big that can pass the ball, and Pau can do that pretty well for a big. He is also good on the pick and roll. Imagine a pick and roll with a kick out to Beal for a corner 3, if Pau gets double teamed. He is still pretty good at rebounding, getting ~9/game. Providing we get Gortat to stay, then the next 3 years will look pretty good with a Gortat and Gasol front line. Pau is average on D...and he does sometimes look like Antwan Jamison on D....which will drive a lot of us, including me, crazy. We can have Nene and Booker, if we can get him to stay, and/or Gooden as backups, when we need a defensive PF in the game. Gasol can play spot duty at C, although he hates it, he can still play 5 mins/game. Gasol has won championships...he has a clue about what it takes.

Wall is entering his prime. He needs to be surrounded by players who are mature, know what it takes to win in the regular season, in the playoff and, how to get a championship. The window to win a championship starts about right now. It will stay open for maybe another 6 years.

So yes, we need a player like Gasol. He is starter material for 3 years max and a backup for another 3 years.

Am I the only one thinking Pau Gasol is going to end up with his brother in Memphis?

With Zach Randolph being a free agent as well I think it's almost a no-brainer he ends up there.

Good thought. They'll probably have just enough cap space if Randolph and Ed Davis leave. Problem would be depth and athleticism up front. Koufos and Leuer aren't the quickest backup bigs. They'd need some old bodies to stay healthy.