NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 2

[dckingsfan]

In my analysis, Aldridge is good, but could be much better. At 28 years old, he's not likely to make significant changes to his game, so...what you see is likely what you're going to get.

I think his D continues to improve with age (yes, being able to play PF helps). I think being paired with Lopez has helped so you could argue that it was the pairing and not Aldridge (I don't). I think he will continue to improve over the next couple of years on the defensive end of the court.

And I think he could improve on the offensive end if he begins to shoot the 3 point shot on a more frequent basis. Also, he is turning the ball over less and less and I think that trend will continue as well.

My two cents.

[dckingsfan]

Where's PIF to tell me how overrated LMA is?

Dude is straight nasty

Depends on where folks have Aldridge rated. Those who think of him as one of the game's elites have him overrated. Those who think he's pretty average have him underrated.

My primary caution would be to avoid reaching any conclusions based on one game -- especially one where a guy's performance is an extreme. Last night's play from Aldridge was impressive as hell, but it's at the extreme high end of what he can do.

He's an interesting player because so much of his game is the 2pt jumper. He's very productive and he rates well in my analysis, BUT he also would seem to leave a lot of points out there with his shot selection. 64% of his FGA are 2pt jumpers from 10 feet or more. He shoots .426 on those attempts. An average NBA FGA has an efg of .501. For Portland, it's .504.

With his high usage and misguided shot selection, Aldridge is costing the Blazers about 1.9 points per 40 minutes. The only high-usage (25% of his team's possessions or more) player costing his team more with his shooting this season was Michael Carter-Williams. The other guys close: Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan, and Tony Wroten.

In my analysis, Aldridge is good, but could be much better. At 28 years old, he's not likely to make significant changes to his game, so...what you see is likely what you're going to get.

By the way, Portland did have one of the league's most efficient offenses, even with Aldridge's relative inefficiency. Why? Very low turnovers, and excellent offensive rebounding (especially by Robin Lopez).

Let me guess, Kevin--he should be shooting open 3's, particularly the corner 3, and layups/dunks, with a 2 point jump shot being a last resort only when the shot clock is expiring. Am I right?

I know you watch the games - you will often see him set that high screen and then "drift" in 3 feet. If he would stay put, he would get a bunch of uncontested 3s. It doesn't have to be too many to open up the floor for the entire team.

My take anyway.

[Nivek]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

[pancakes3]

If he had the 3 as a part of his game, he would be Dirktacular. Whatever the case, he's a great shooter who just doesn't take 3's. Very old school.

[AFM]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

Is it none?
Otherwise my guess would be Kyle Korver. I don't think he takes many 2's though.

Anyway, 46 points on Sunday and 43 last night. These highlights are just nasty
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMFV7WFtHm0[/youtube]

He's a matchup nightmare for HOU since his game is mostly contested fadeaways (yes, not "good" shots) but he's making them, so it doesn't matter if they put Howard or Asik on him.
Look how demoralized Asik looks 3:10 in after he hits that jumper

[Nivek]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

Is it none?
Otherwise my guess would be Kyle Korver. I don't think he takes many 2's though.

Three. Jared Dudley, Dirk Nowitzki and Courtney Lee. (With a minimum of 100 attempts. Reducing the cutoff to 25 attempts only adds 4-5 guys. I would have expected more.)

[AFM]

I'll have you know I'm shooting 60 percent in the University of Michigan rec league

[nuposse04]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

I kind of find it ironic HOU epitomizes that style of play (Takes lots of 3s and attack the basket) yet still is losing to long 2 McGoo. POR plays the 3 pt game as well I believe (not sure if they take anywhere near the amount of 3s as HOU) but they actually have someone who can hit a shot when defenses lock in. LMA's shot is simply unguardable (especially when he's this hot). I get why he's meh, in the efficiency department but against teams that ICE excellently like CHi or maybe memphis, LMA's ability to hit that shot has to have some value.

Its hilarious that they keep on trying to guard him with T. Jones.

[nuposse04]

Although, I'll admit, HOU is losing mostly cause I think they are GOD AWFUL defensively. Harden is a joke on that end.

*Also very enjoyable watching Harden fail thus far. **** that flopping flailing douche.

[Nivek]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

I kind of find it ironic HOU epitomizes that style of play (Takes lots of 3s and attack the basket) yet still is losing to long 2 McGoo. POR plays the 3 pt game as well I believe (not sure if they take anywhere near the amount of 3s as HOU) but they actually have someone who can hit a shot when defenses lock in. LMA's shot is simply unguardable (especially when he's this hot). I get why he's meh, in the efficiency department but against teams that ICE excellently like CHi or maybe memphis, LMA's ability to hit that shot has to have some value.

Its hilarious that they keep on trying to guard him with T. Jones.

Your follow-up post is spot on. Houston is scoring like crazy, but is pretty average on defense. In the two playoff games against Portland, they've gotten roasted.

Back to Aldridge for a moment, his shot selection is effective when it goes in. And it's gone in these two games -- 16-32 on 2pt FGA from 10+ feet. He's also 13-15 at-rim, and he's hit both his 3pt attempts.

Honestly, if I was Houston, I'd continue to encourage Aldridge to shoot 2pt jumpers. Try to challenge them and make them tougher looks, but bet that he's not going to keep shooting 50% over a 7-game series.

[Kanyewest]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

Aldridge only attempted 15 3 point attempts the whole season and he was 3 of 15. In game 1, Aldridge made 2 of the 3 pointers he attempted. I don't think it's unreasonable for Aldridge to extend his range later in his career like Jason Kidd.

[Kanyewest]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Eric Maynor.

[AFM]

You can tell he's got his swagger up. After he releases his shot, he's bouncing on one foot with his second out in front of him while leaning back like "yeah I'm the man"

[nuposse04]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

I kind of find it ironic HOU epitomizes that style of play (Takes lots of 3s and attack the basket) yet still is losing to long 2 McGoo. POR plays the 3 pt game as well I believe (not sure if they take anywhere near the amount of 3s as HOU) but they actually have someone who can hit a shot when defenses lock in. LMA's shot is simply unguardable (especially when he's this hot). I get why he's meh, in the efficiency department but against teams that ICE excellently like CHi or maybe memphis, LMA's ability to hit that shot has to have some value.

Its hilarious that they keep on trying to guard him with T. Jones.

Your follow-up post is spot on. Houston is scoring like crazy, but is pretty average on defense. In the two playoff games against Portland, they've gotten roasted.

Back to Aldridge for a moment, his shot selection is effective when it goes in. And it's gone in these two games -- 16-32 on 2pt FGA from 10+ feet. He's also 13-15 at-rim, and he's hit both his 3pt attempts.

Honestly, if I was Houston, I'd continue to encourage Aldridge to shoot 2pt jumpers. Try to challenge them and make them tougher looks, but bet that he's not going to keep shooting 50% over a 7-game series.

I'd agree with that, I think LMA will come back somewhat to reality, I imagine he will be better then season norms though since HOU is a joke of a defensive team. I also think Lillard and company will eventually get it going, especially if they decide to double LMA. LMA isn't dirk, at least I don't think we're witnessing that sort of permanent transformation right now, so he should know as well he has to try other things as well. Unless they use Howard on him I'd like to see him in the post as well.

I just don't think THIS HOU team is designed to do well in the playoffs especially with McHale coaching. Save for Howard and maybe beverly nobody is a superior defender on that team. They're all competent offensively but when you're cold from 3 pt land and can't buckle down defensively being down 0-2 should't surprise them. I'm not a Harden fan at all but he should be better this offensively. I also think they're really asking a lot T Jones to defend someone like LMA.

[Nivek]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

Aldridge only attempted 15 3 point attempts the whole season and he was 3 of 15. In game 1, Aldridge made 2 of the 3 pointers he attempted. I don't think it's unreasonable for Aldridge to extend his range later in his career like Jason Kidd.

It's not impossible. If Aldridge works on a 3pt shot, I have little doubt that he'd become a good 3pt shooter. But, the point stands that most players are peaking by 28. The odds of him improving significantly in the future aren't very good.

And, the Kidd example is one that gets used a lot, but isn't a good one. Kidd was a frequent and fairly effective 3pt shooter throughout his career. He did improve his percentage and shoot more of them later in his career as he slowed down, but he was an adequate 3pt shooter even when he was young.

[AFM]

Those are obviously the ideal shot choices. With Aldridge, I'd want to see more of his FGA coming inside since he doesn't seem to have 3pt range.

Those long 2pters are just not good shots.

DON'T LOOK THIS UP -- take a guess. How many players this season do you think shot 50% or better on 2pt jumpers from 10ft and beyond? Bonus points if you can name them.

Aldridge only attempted 15 3 point attempts the whole season and he was 3 of 15. In game 1, Aldridge made 2 of the 3 pointers he attempted. I don't think it's unreasonable for Aldridge to extend his range later in his career like Jason Kidd.

It's not impossible. If Aldridge works on a 3pt shot, I have little doubt that he'd become a good 3pt shooter. But, the point stands that most players are peaking by 28. The odds of him improving significantly in the future aren't very good.

And, the Kidd example is one that gets used a lot, but isn't a good one. Kidd was a frequent and fairly effective 3pt shooter throughout his career. He did improve his percentage and shoot more of them later in his career as he slowed down, but he was an adequate 3pt shooter even when he was young.

A timely article from Grantland:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-r ... f-scoring/

[Nivek]

A timely article from Grantland:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-r ... f-scoring/

I like Goldsberry's work for the most part, but there's a problem -- he's comparing the player's shooting to the league average from that spot. So, he shows Aldridge having a "hot spot" this season from that right corner because Aldridge is better than average from that location, but...Aldridge is shooting just 42% from there. Which isn't actually a good percentage from anywhere inside the 3pt line.

That said, I would love for Goldsberry (or one of the people with access to the SportsVu data) to take a look at the value of mid-range shooting. There may be a benefit to even meh mid-range shooting if it leads to the defense overreacting and making higher-yield shots even better.

[Zonkerbl]

I think Kidd suffered a little from people not quite understanding at the time that shooting 33% from three is roughly equivalent to shooting 50% from two.

Earlier in his career he hovered around 33%, and then starting in 2004 he hovered around 35%.

Even Gilbert got criticised for having a low fg%, even though so many of his fgas were threes!

For some reason people used to think anything under 40% from three was bad. That's like shooting 60% from the field, hoss!

[hands11]

Where's PIF to tell me how overrated LMA is?

Dude is straight nasty

He has been hasn't he.

I think POR is the better designed TEAM. Less talent but better balance. They can take that series.

Actually, now that I am setting in watching playoff style basketball, you really can see how much defense and balanced rosters matter. And the Wizards have that so they are looking pretty good.

The two teams I think are lined up for an early bounce out of the playoffs are...

OKC and HOU.

MEM can take OKC - MEM is the more balanced team. Too much Westbrook. Needs to be KD's team.
POR can take HOU - Portland's pieces fit better. HOU needs to be Harden's team. Clear the paint
LAC vs GSW- would have been a tougher fight if they had Bogat. I think LAC take this without him.
SAS vs DAL - don't count out DAL. They have a good team. Too tough to call.

WIZ vs CHI - Wiz win. CHI doesn't have enough offense. Take out DJ and they are done.
MIA vs CHA - was tough with Jefferson. Without.. forget it MIA
ATL vs IND - gotta see game three to decide. IND should win but they are a mess.
TOR vs BRK - gotta see game three to decide. BRK should win but TOR is scrappy.

Big game tonight IND vs ATL. If ATL can knock them out, WIZ can take ATL so ECF would be looking really good.

And I actually like our chances against MIA. That would be awesome to see.

WIZ actually have a decent path to the title series. And only one team makes it out of the West so its not like you have to play them all. But whoever makes it out is going to be a load to go against.

EDIT after ATL game. Series now 2-1 ATL
Add an underline to ATL

[AFM]

Where's PIF to tell me how overrated LMA is?

Dude is straight nasty

He has been hasn't he.

I think POR is the better designed TEAM. Less talent but better balance. They can take that series.

The thing is, HOU is defending him well, pushing him all the way out to the 3 point line practically.
And Asik has a hand in his face on most shots but hes just draining them.

Look at the shot 3:05 in.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMFV7WFtHm0[/youtube]

That's just sweet....