Let's play "who is number 14?"

BullHeaded · Post #1 » by **BullHeaded** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:32 pm

My bold prediction... book this and make me wear this around my neck like a fool... with the 14th pick of the NFL draft... the Bears select... Deone Bucannon, safety, Washington State University.

Here's my rationale:
First of all, both Long and Shea Mac had pre-draft visits. So it stands to reason the 14th pick this year will have a pre-draft visit as well. Deone Bucannon was among a bunch so far who had one, so he is in the club.

Second... we will be taking a safety with that first pick. Personally, my guy right now is Aaron Donald, Justin Gilbert or Darqueze Dennard... but Emery is taking a safety with that pick. Why? He's had visits with Clinton Dix and Calvin Pryor, but besides Kyle Fuller, I have not seen him visit with another top tier CB like Dennard or Gilbert and I haven't seen him visit with any of the conventionally top ranked DTs like Donald, Jernigan, Nix or Hageman. This leads me to believe the first round taget is a safety.

Third... Emery is not beholden to group think so I don't think he gives a damn that every mock draft in the past six months has Pryor and Clinton Dix as the top two safeties. That doesn't mean he won't take one of those guys at 14, it only means he won't be partial to them at 14 if someone else is on his radar.

Fourth... the combine is king to Emery. The 40 yard dash was bigger than college production in Long's case, and it was bigger than size in McClellin's case. Of the safeties that have come in for pre-draft visits, only one truly aced the combine. It wasn't Clinton Dix. It wasn't Pryor. It was Deone Bucannon who ran more than a tenth of a second faster than both of those guys and was in the top three at his position in all but one of the events he participated in.

We could get into scouting reports, college production, size, etc. Bucannon has a compelling case to make in those areas comparatively as well... but I believe that if past is prologue... the four reasons above pave a path to Bucannon as our 14th overall pick. And most of us Bears fans will say "WTF" as he passes on HCD and/or Calvin Pryor and possibly some seemingly glaring value guys at other positions.

PS- I'm convinced Aaron Donald will be long gone by 14.

So... anyone else have any crazy 14th pick predicitons?

Post #2 » by **emperorjones** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:18 pm

My personal pick is to trade down & pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick. However, that's not what your game is......

I think Bucannon is who we want in round 2. I see us first trying to trade down. If we are not able, then I think Emery will take the BAP on defense. So I could see him going CB, S, or DT.

That said, if HCD, Aaron Donald, Calvin Pryor, Darqueze Dennard and Justin Gilbert are all off the board at #14 - then someone else has dropped and Emery will be in the catbird's seat for someone trying to trade up to get a QB, WR, OT, or a 3/4 DE.

So, my entry in this game? My Emeryesque pick for #14? The pick that would have everyone saying "Didn't see that coming"?.....

Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina.

Rationale? - Absolutely dominate one side of the ball. Putting out another HUGE target for Cutler would make our offense outrageous. If you then drafted Bucannon at Safety in round 2, a big body DT in round 3, a RB in round 4 to challenge for the #2 spot behind Forte, and followed that up with developmental CBs in round 5 & 6 - you'd have had a solid draft.

BullHeaded · Post #3 » by **BullHeaded** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:27 pm

Trestman having Bennett and Ebron in one of those two TE sets he seems to favor would make for some mighty creative playcalling.

Post #4 » by **emperorjones** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:53 pm

BullHeaded wrote:Trestman having Bennett and Ebron in one of those two TE sets he seems to favor would make for some mighty creative playcalling.

How would a DC defend that? - Marshall, Jeffrey, Ebron, Bennett then Forte coming out of the backfield? :crazy:

Someone big is getting (and beating) single coverage

BullHeaded · Post #5 » by **BullHeaded** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:09 pm

emperorjones wrote:
BullHeaded wrote:Trestman having Bennett and Ebron in one of those two TE sets he seems to favor would make for some mighty creative playcalling.

How would a DC defend that? - Marshall, Jeffrey, Ebron, Bennett then Forte coming out of the backfield?

Someone big is getting (and beating) single coverage

Well... you're just talking about the passing game. The beauty of it is you also have an extra guy at the line of scrimmage for run downs. In other words, its like having an extra receiver OR an extra blocker which keeps the defense guessing. That makes it extra dangerous.

Also, one thing overlooked with Trestman (or maybe Kromer should get the credit) was how he did calling the run game. Short yardage was terrible... don't get me wrong. But the way he'd bait edge defenders with Alshon to give Forte a big lane off tackle was a thing of beauty. Giving him another TE who is not an obvious pass down only guy or run down only guy would be a toy I think he'd drive defenses nuts with.

RobPow28 · Post #6 » by **RobPow28** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:10 pm

My first choice would be Ha Ha Dix but I think he will be gone
I think Dallas is going to trade up ahead of us and take Donald probably with the pick before us.
I can see either Dennard or Pryor if we keep the pick but I really think we will try and trade down and pick up an extra 3rd or 4th rounder.

Friend_Of_Haley · Post #7 » by **Friend_Of_Haley** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:16 pm

This is pretty good guess. How does Bucannons tape compare with his measurables. While Emery has clearly valued measurables, it seems his picks have showed in game athleticism even if in the case of Long there was limited tape.

BullHeaded · Post #8 » by **BullHeaded** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:55 am

Friend_Of_Haley wrote:This is pretty good guess. How does Bucannons tape compare with his measurables. While Emery has clearly valued measurables, it seems his picks have showed in game athleticism even if in the case of Long there was limited tape.

There are a lot of highlight videos of him. But for one good slobberknocker... you may appreciate this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYPDHFwk7uo

Post #9 » by **emperorjones** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:35 am

BullHeaded wrote:
Friend_Of_Haley wrote:This is pretty good guess. How does Bucannons tape compare with his measurables. While Emery has clearly valued measurables, it seems his picks have showed in game athleticism even if in the case of Long there was limited tape.

There are a lot of highlight videos of him. But for one good slobberknocker... you may appreciate this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYPDHFwk7uo

BullHeaded · Post #10 » by **BullHeaded** » Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:03 pm

emperorjones wrote:
BullHeaded wrote:
Friend_Of_Haley wrote:This is pretty good guess. How does Bucannons tape compare with his measurables. While Emery has clearly valued measurables, it seems his picks have showed in game athleticism even if in the case of Long there was limited tape.

There are a lot of highlight videos of him. But for one good slobberknocker... you may appreciate this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYPDHFwk7uo

There are actually a bunch of great highlight reels on Deone Bucannnon showing his range, open field tackling ability, bone jarring hits, ball skills, etc. The only problem is... they all have highlight reels that look like that. It can be a bit misleading to watch those.

But my one takeaway from looking at them is this... he is a big safety who is athletic and has some wheels. He won't be out of place in the NFL physically... he'll be able to play the game at NFL speed and has NFL size.

I'm standing by my original post. I'm not saying he is who I would pick (although I'd be at peace with it the more I look into it), but I do believe that all of the clues and patterns point to Deone Bucannon being selected at 14 by the Bears.

RobPow28 · Post #11 » by **RobPow28** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:49 pm

I think if the Bears are going to take Buchanon they will trade down and pick up more picks or they can trade up from there second rounder to get him. 14 is too high to take him, I personally would like to see the Bears trade down and maybe pick up another 3rd or 4th round pick, and then take Buchanon, I believe he will be available later to them in the draft. I would really like to see a DT, S, CB in the first 3 or 4 rounds, those I feel are our most needed spots right now. I wouldn't mind seeing the Bears draft Pryor also, I really like Donald but I can see the Cowboys trading ahead of us to get him.

But then again Emery has surprised us the last 2 drafts with the 1st rounder so you never know. I was upset with both of those 1st round picks, the Long pick turned out to be awesome, hopefully Shea can make a good transition to LB'er. I was hoping for Chandler Jones and Tyler Eifert.

I was looking at the players where the Bears have had workouts or visits and the only 2 I see on the list that could go in the 1st are Dix and Buchanon.

heir_jordan22 · Post #12 » by **heir_jordan22** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:26 pm

Tuitt.

I think Donald will be gone (NYG) and we will go with the under-the-radar athletic freak in Stephon Tuitt, following the Emery way.

heir_jordan22 · Post #13 » by **heir_jordan22** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:32 pm

BullHeaded wrote:
emperorjones wrote:
BullHeaded wrote:
There are a lot of highlight videos of him. But for one good slobberknocker... you may appreciate this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYPDHFwk7uo

There are actually a bunch of great highlight reels on Deone Bucannnon showing his range, open field tackling ability, bone jarring hits, ball skills, etc. The only problem is... they all have highlight reels that look like that. It can be a bit misleading to watch those.

But my one takeaway from looking at them is this... he is a big safety who is athletic and has some wheels. He won't be out of place in the NFL physically... he'll be able to play the game at NFL speed and has NFL size.

I'm standing by my original post. I'm not saying he is who I would pick (although I'd be at peace with it the more I look into it), but I do believe that all of the clues and patterns point to Deone Bucannon being selected at 14 by the Bears.

I love Bucannon. The difference between his highlight hit and everyone else's is that he does it every week and several times a week. I would love to have him but I think he or someone with very similar talent can be had in the second round at safety. I think he, Bailey, Dixon, Brooks and Loston are on ptty much the same level and Emery will be able to pick his favorite out of a couple of those guys.

RobPow28 · Post #14 » by **RobPow28** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:10 am

heir_jordan22 wrote:Tuitt.

I think Donald will be gone (NYG) and we will go with the under-the-radar athletic freak in Stephon Tuitt, following the Emery way.

Unless Tuitt or one of the other DE's we have signed can convert to DT, I don't see that happening. We signed a bunch of DE's, we need people to plug up the middle and stop other teams running games, we were horrible there last year.

heir_jordan22 · Post #15 » by **heir_jordan22** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:20 am

RobPow28 wrote:
heir_jordan22 wrote:Tuitt.

I think Donald will be gone (NYG) and we will go with the under-the-radar athletic freak in Stephon Tuitt, following the Emery way.

Unless Tuitt or one of the other DE's we have signed can convert to DT, I don't see that happening. We signed a bunch of DE's, we need people to plug up the middle and stop other teams running games, we were horrible there last year.

He's a 310lb 3-4 DE. He's a 4-3 DT. Perfect for the hybrid defense we wanna run

BullHeaded · Post #16 » by **BullHeaded** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:13 am

heir_jordan22 wrote:
RobPow28 wrote:
heir_jordan22 wrote:Tuitt.

I think Donald will be gone (NYG) and we will go with the under-the-radar athletic freak in Stephon Tuitt, following the Emery way.

Unless Tuitt or one of the other DE's we have signed can convert to DT, I don't see that happening. We signed a bunch of DE's, we need people to plug up the middle and stop other teams running games, we were horrible there last year.

He's a 310lb 3-4 DE. He's a 4-3 DT. Perfect for the hybrid defense we wanna run

The big tells for an Emery first round pick:
1- is he a player at a position he is targeting in the first?
2- Did he have a predraft visit?
3- Did he ace the combine?

I don't think Tuitt had a predraft interview or aced the combine. Doesn't mean he wouldn't be a terrific nfl player or even the best available (think Suggs) but it just doesn't fit the pattern. I believe the consensus first rounders with predraft visits with the Bears are Barr, Clinton Dix, and Pryor. If you include the "some consider first rounders" you can add Bucannon, Fuller and Ward ( I think). It seems like he's targeting a safety, not a cb. Otherwise he would have talked to Gilbert and Dennard. So I'm crossing Fulller off my list. Barr he may think would be a super value that could plausibly fall, so that may be a legit consideration at 14. But it looks like he wants a safety this year like he was locked in on a de two drafts ago.

Then again, two years may not a pattern make and this could be the draft he picks the guy in the first round that he didn't bring in for a visit.

patryk7754 · Post #17 » by **patryk7754** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:24 pm

Obviously impossible but if Watkins drops to us we should take him. If he drops to 9 we should trade up or him because the Lions will take him and we'd be fked. Watkins can easily be our best WR in his second year. People only look at him as deep speed guy but he's the whole package. He's not afraid to go down the middle. He has strong and ferocious hands and he will hit you in the mouth.

patryk7754 · Post #18 » by **patryk7754** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:28 pm

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AARb846L29o[/youtube]

This is our guy!

Chi town · Post #19 » by **Chi town** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 4:28 pm

I like a trade down and selection of Bucannon. I like his size and athleticism.

I wouldn't mind a trade down and selection of a DT in the late 1st and then moving up in the 2nd to get Bucanon.

We could have gotten Long in the 2nd round last year. I will pissed if Emery does the same thing and selects too high without a trade down.

BullHeaded · Post #20 » by **BullHeaded** » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:36 pm

patryk7754 wrote:[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AARb846L29o[/youtube]

This is our guy!

This is a link to a draft chat with David Thomas, an NFL scout. If you like Dennard, you'd be very interested to see what he has to say about him. He prepared a 200 page scouting analysis on him and calls him the best DB to enter the draft since Brian Dawkins. He's one of only three college players in the past 50 years to hold opposing receivers to under one yard per target (one of the guys was from the 60s and the other one was Deion Sanders).

http://chi.scout.com/2/1395781.html

Regarding my guy Bucannon... he rates Bucannon as the top safety in the draft ahead of Pryor and Clinton Dix and says he knows of one team he's close to that is targeting him in the first round.

Other interesting nuggets:
CJ Mosley is likely to slide because of a shoulder problem.
Aaron Donald is his top prospect overall in this draft.
Khalil Mack is expected to be a top 3 pick.

But the guy looks like the president of the Darqueze Dennard fan club.