Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

[montestewart]

It ain't like Vesely couldn't have panned out, he just didn't. Some team traded Tractor Traylor for Dirk. If Ernie had picked Faried instead of Vesely, what would people be saying about Ernie if Jan's game grew to match his athleticism and he was an all-star? You know what is said about the Webber and Rasheed trades. It's a gamble.

The thing about Faried is he could have picked Vesely and still gotten Faried. Every once in a while, EG's Wizards exceed my expectations. I don't know whether that's because he's excelling or I have just depressed my expectations so much. This Bulls series is a perfect example. I figured Bulls in 6. I didn't think the Wizards would get swept, but obviously I still underestimated them. And I'm happy to be wrong. But I've been following this team closely for a long time, and it feels like I've been down this road before. I didn't think Arenas' Wizards had a chance, and they exceeded my expectations and beat the Bulls. And that was the high point of the Arenas years.

It's hard for me to see how EG successfully continues to build beyond this level. I'll likely retain my skepticism regarding his abilities until he proves he can get well beyond an owner-mandated playoff appearance. The Bulls are a good start. Just as I wanted Vesely to succeed (and Singleton, and Maynor, and McGee…), I want EG to succeed, because he's running MY TEAM! I don't think my doubts are misplaced at all, but that doesn't mean he can't show something different, something better than I've seen in the past. And if he does, I'll be all smiles.

[Illuminaire]

It ain't like Vesely couldn't have panned out, he just didn't. Some team traded Tractor Traylor for Dirk. If Ernie had picked Faried instead of Vesely, what would people be saying about Ernie if Jan's game grew to match his athleticism and he was an all-star? You know what is said about the Webber and Rasheed trades. It's a gamble.

Shenanigans.

Drafting is not based on luck. It's about gathering and interpreting information about a person. Mistakes happen in this process, but that's what they are - mistakes.

There were a fair number of old-school scouts who loved Vesely's ephemeral potential, but that was it for the positive column. Anyone who took a sober look at his actual performance in real games was hard pressed to find a single good reason to consider him more than a laaaaaate first/early second round pick.

[hands11]

Make a note of this so I don't have to keep repeating it.

Everything a franchise does is not the GM in isolation.

Gil's max contract was an Abe mandate. Trading the 5th pick was Abe mandate. So was resigning AJ.

Just like extending Wall early and amnestying Blanche was Ted.

Owners and GMs run the front office. Not just a GM. Not unless you have a deal like Zen where the arrangement is I'm only coming if I have 100% control.

[hands11]

My point is that you shouldn't just mention luck. Luck is the bulk of it. Whatever best laid plans you, or EG, or whoever the next GM is, is insignificant when compared to luck as it pertains to fielding a legitimate title contender. We can wheel and deal our way to a playoff team (like we currently are) but to expect to compete without a generational player is a pipe dream.

Do we have any ?

[hands11]

Except, Millie, knocking the Vesely pick isn't hindsight. Many on this board specifically didn't want Vesely. Of those who didn't want Vesely, I don't remember anyone who preferred Thompson. Most wanted Kawhi Leonard and Faried in the 1st round. At the time. Before the picks were made.

Wonder how many of those same people wanted Bennett or MKG over Beal.

[dckingsfan]

The thing about Faried is he could have picked Vesely and still gotten Faried.

Kaboom... basically a monkey picking off a board would have done better. Just saying.

[montestewart]

Except, Millie, knocking the Vesely pick isn't hindsight. Many on this board specifically didn't want Vesely. Of those who didn't want Vesely, I don't remember anyone who preferred Thompson. Most wanted Kawhi Leonard and Faried in the 1st round. At the time. Before the picks were made.

Wonder how many of those same people wanted Bennett or MKG over Beal.

Or Olowokandi?

[hands11]

Make a note of this so I don't have to keep repeating it. Vesely WAS NOT the consensus 6th best player in the draft. The consensus was that the Wizards would pick Vesely because they telegraphed that move so heavily leading up to the draft, so much so that some people just assumed they were bluffing. If Wall, Beal, Porter fall short, hard to fault EG too much for that. Vesely is far from the same case.

As a "project" he was. Game wise no, but athletically and length, yes. Yes he was a mistake. But he would not have slid far down based on the length and athleticism

For me, length and athleticism got old a long time ago. If you can't play ball, it ain't much good. I hated that pick, but once he was on the team, I wanted him to succeed, somehow. But trying for a solid contributor rather than a long shot home run would have been a better move at that point, especially a rebounder, which is what made Faried, Leonard, and Vucevic attractive targets.

Dont leave out Markieff Morris. Actually given how the draft slotted, he was the one most GMs would have reached down to get before they reached down to where Faried was. A GM is only going to stick their necks out so far. They aren't drafting a played slotted in the 20s with the 6th pick. Yes, group think does happen.

We can talked about trade downs but not sure what was really available that day. I wanted to trade down I know that.

My slotting had Markieff Morris/Nikola Vucevic/Tobias Harris

Would any of them have been the best choice ? Hard to say right now. Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Kenneth Faried all look like they can produce and have untapped upside. I liked Kembra but didn't like the fit since we had Wall and other gaping holes. Klay I didn't care for because I didn't project him to be a good defender. He has been better than I thought. Tough kid. Kwahi was to raw in my eye like Ves was. And Faried I had size concerns vs Nikola who I saw as less of a risk so I wanted Nikola. He was a good fit.

But at the same time, any of the three I slotted wouldn't have sucked either. Markieff is finally coming around and should be an even better player next year.

I didn't want Ves as the pick, but I can see where things could work out for him in the league. He is still two years away in part because once they added the front court vets, he got no playing time and that crushed his development. That was something CCJ posted a lot about before it happened and it ended up just like that. To utilize what Ves can do, you have to have the right players around him. And if you want points from him, you have to feed him like Birdman get feed.

[hands11]

The thing about Faried is he could have picked Vesely and still gotten Faried.

Kaboom... basically a monkey picking off a board would have done better. Just saying.

It was the Singleton pick that was the real bust and lots on the board liked that pick.

Ves was a swing for the fence move. You can disagree with doing that at #6 in that draft but that's what it was. They new they would be back the follow year with another lottery pick. And keep in mind, Ves was supposed to be running the floor doing his Ves dunks with Wall leading the way. Something he did in year after the lock out and his injury.

But Singleton was taken just before Tobias Harris, Donatas Motiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried.

I guess the logic was, we swung for the fence on Ves, lets go with the safe beat solid defender in C Singleton so at least we know we walked out with something. They did need defensive help.

That game plan didn't work so well. It was a failure of strategy. They should have had things reversed. Get the more sure thing with the first pick then take a risk. If they did that, I think they would have gone

Markieff Morris and probably Tobias Harris. It would have been a stretch to think they would do MM and Faried.

[montestewart]

Look, unless you want me to write an essay for every post, than posts are not going to include everything.

Oh, the humanity!

[dckingsfan]

Vesely, Singleton, Mack... you literally could have taken a dart board and done better with the picks following. He really has no skill drafting.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

Doesn't negotiate with Webster, Maynor and Harrington. He really has no skill in the FA process.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

[montestewart]

Vesely, Singleton, Mack... you literally could have taken a dart board and done better with the picks following. He really has no skill drafting.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

Doesn't negotiate with Webster, Maynor and Harrington. He really has no skill in the FA process.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

He's got a big mustache that'll give you a rash.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

Wish he was the Wizards next draft and stash.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

[dckingsfan]

It was a failure of strategy.

Continual failure of strategy, process and execution when drafting.

[closg00]

Grunfeld/Monumental sycophants are exhausting, no criterion exist for which Grunfeld can ever be fired.

[dckingsfan]

Vesely, Singleton, Mack... you literally could have taken a dart board and done better with the picks following. He really has no skill drafting.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

Doesn't negotiate with Webster, Maynor and Harrington. He really has no skill in the FA process.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

He's got a big mustache that'll give you a rash.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

Wish he was the Wizards next draft and stash.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

To the beat - http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-YCeIgt7hMs

[hands11]

It was a failure of strategy.

Continual failure of strategy, process and execution when drafting.

I give you.

The Indiana Pacers

[hands11]

Vesely, Singleton, Mack... you literally could have taken a dart board and done better with the picks following. He really has no skill drafting.

There is a reason he is ranked where he is ranked as a GM.

I give you .. the ratings by the EXPERTS


http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/ma ... wks-pacers

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/ma ... ards-bulls

If you are using NBA "expert" to help you with your argument, that's not much of a case.

[dckingsfan]

Oh, you are probably right - I forget, what is our winning percentage during the EG era?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The draft is pure luck. The year the Wiz picked Kwame #1, #1 he was rated as such and outside of Gasol, who was really available?

For Grunfeld, we got Wall #1 #1 and I'm not complaining, but there was no LeBron, Shaq, Duncan, Durant, etc. The year we picked Vesely, Vesely was rated at that spot, just like JaVale, Nick Young. Ernie hit on Beal, because he could have chosen someone else. Otto, I still think he was picked as part of the Georgetown/Ted connection, possibly by Ted when you consider we already had 2 players at his position.

Ernie had his failures surrounding the draft, but not in the picks that was obvious so he gets no credit for Wall or no fault for Vesely. His mid-first picks are just that, crapshoots like everyone else.

I remember vividly who was available.

MJ was GM. I wanted either a trade down and either Shane Battier and Zach Randolph or Troy Murphy. I didn't want Kwame, or any of the other highly touted HS players (Tyson Chandler, Eddie Curry, DeSagana Diop, or Ousmane Cisse). Chandler and Curry both went to the Bulls, with both playing their best basketball elsewhere. Cisse had a devastating injury. Diop was a bust who had some defensive potentially. Kwame would have been a fine defensive big man if picked late in round one or early round two.

I really thought proven NCAA performers, Battier and Randolph/Murphy was the way to go instead of Kwame; who I had heard really didn't play good competition in his small FL HS division.

Not to blow my own horn, because the following year I thought Emeka Okafor made a lot more sense going first over some HS kid named Dwight Howard.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Except, Millie, knocking the Vesely pick isn't hindsight. Many on this board specifically didn't want Vesely. Of those who didn't want Vesely, I don't remember anyone who preferred Thompson. Most wanted Kawhi Leonard and Faried in the 1st round. At the time. Before the picks were made.

I wanted anyone BUT Vesely. I went along at the last second with the Singleton pick but I KNEW no way, no how would he be anywhere near as good as Vesely.

As far as the draft goes, I think so called experts largely go on groupthink. I haven't looked too closely the past 4-5 years, but the years before that I was AMAZED at the generalized ineptitude of most scouting departments.

Maybe if God wills and my current turmoil subsides soon, I'll have more time on my hands to look. Draft methodologies are much better now. But in 2011, they should have known Vesely was no more than a dunker. If James Gist was better on the same team that should have told them something. Vesely shot arse from the FT line over there. I don't know anything about his aptitude, but I bet any due diligence would have revealed some patterns that were predictive. I think Ernie did a HORRIBLE JOB in 2011 with the draft. He's made egregious mistakes for years.

But so have I on things that matter more. I'm humbled by a life full of failure and regret. But I am thankful to have some insights in this forum which have tended to be more right than wrong. This has given me joy. I think picking draft picks is downright easy TBH.