Big Al's Paint: The Al Jefferson Thread

[Eoghan]

He had a good year, fairly typical for his track record of production. I respectfully disagree that he should be put on Charlotte basketball's Mt Rushmore for a multitude of reasons I decline to go into b/c they'd be construed as trolling and condescending.

[BeesWax]

BD, I get that being condescending is your shtick, but if respecting Big Al's production this season and not just his effort over three games makes you a superfan, then I guess the entire league is a superfan, given that he's getting strong consideration for an All NBA team. It baffles me why you can't bring yourself to say he had an impressive season by pretty much any standard.

He had a normal year for him. He has been doing the same thing since his last year in Boston. Good offense terrible defense. I don't blame BD for being unimpressed. This is what I expected and why I wanted to find a better two way player for 13.5 million.

[yosemiteben]

Facts are facts, and arguments are arguments. I'm genuinely interested to hear your take on why Al deserves flack for this season, especially for reasons that aren't due to the offensive philosophy that Clifford put in place. What was he asked to do that he did not excel at?

I'm not an Al historian, but based on my limited research I believe his production in January through April was unprecedented in his career.

Over the course of the 2013-14 season, Al scored 25+ points on 28 occasions (only twice shooting under 50% from the field and 13 times shooting at or above 60%). We were 22-6 in games where Al scored 25 or more points. I challenge you to find another variable that is more positively correlated with wins than Al's scoring.

To provide some context for those numbers in terms of Al's career production, below is a list by season of the number of times Al reached or exceeded 25 points in a game and the record of his team in games where he did so:

2012-13 - 10 times (his team went 7-3 in those games)
2011-12 - 13 times (his team went 9-4 in those games)
2010-11 - 17 times (his team went 8-9 in those games)
2009-10 - 7 times (his team went 2-5 in those games)
2008-09 - 19 times (his team went 4-15 in those games)
2007-08 - 19 times (his team went 8-11 in those games)
2006-07 - 7 times (his team went 5-2 in those games)
Didn't happen in 2004-05 or 2005-06 seasons.

In no other season has Al's scoring been so positively correlated with wins, and in no other season did he have nearly as many scoring outbursts (while maintaining his efficiency no less). This also doesn't take into consideration that he was on a new team and started the season injured. If he had been full strength all season, we are a three seed and no one is talking about how acquiring Al was a bad move or that he is a bad fit for this team.

[yosemiteben]

BD, I get that being condescending is your shtick, but if respecting Big Al's production this season and not just his effort over three games makes you a superfan, then I guess the entire league is a superfan, given that he's getting strong consideration for an All NBA team. It baffles me why you can't bring yourself to say he had an impressive season by pretty much any standard.

He had a normal year for him. He has been doing the same thing since his last year in Boston. Good offense terrible defense. I don't blame BD for being unimpressed. This is what I expected and why I wanted to find a better two way player for 13.5 million.

So despite our exceptional team defense this season, Al's defense is holding us back? Is that honestly your take?

I see all this talk about our system being the reason Al survives on defense. Well if our system results in us having a fringe top 5 defense every year, then why is that a negative? People act like throwing out the phrase "Clifford's system" in referring to our defense somehow diminishes the effectiveness of that defense.

[BeesWax]

BD, I get that being condescending is your shtick, but if respecting Big Al's production this season and not just his effort over three games makes you a superfan, then I guess the entire league is a superfan, given that he's getting strong consideration for an All NBA team. It baffles me why you can't bring yourself to say he had an impressive season by pretty much any standard.

He had a normal year for him. He has been doing the same thing since his last year in Boston. Good offense terrible defense. I don't blame BD for being unimpressed. This is what I expected and why I wanted to find a better two way player for 13.5 million.

So despite our exceptional team defense this season, Al's defense is holding us back? Is that honestly your take?

I see all this talk about our system being the reason Al survives on defense. Well if our system results in us having a fringe top 5 defense every year, then why is that a negative? People act like throwing out the phrase "Clifford's system" in referring to our defense somehow diminishes the effectiveness of that defense.

When he costs 13.5 million a year I want him to not be a liability. He hurt us late in games this year when teams just pick and rolled us to death down the stretch. Jefferson won't leave the paint to help because he can't recover. The point is that it is not pathetic to think this season of his was just ok. It is hard to give much more credit than that to a one way player.

[yosemiteben]

What I said was pathetic was that the only positive thing I had seen BD say about Al is that he played hard while injured (something entirely unrelated to his actual skills), which was accompanied by the disclaimer that BD is not a fan of Al's game.

[JDR720]

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

[HornetJail]

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

I don't.

Look at the teams he played on the last 5 years, since he tore his ACL:

Minnesota, alongside Kevin Love while still recovering from ACL surgery.
Utah with Deron Williams for less than half a season.
Post-Deron Williams Utah.


This is a team that can cover his weakness and feed his strengths. I don't see any reason to believe January through April of this season was just a fluke.

[DY_nasty]

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

why?

[yosemiteben]

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

Did you not read what I posted? I'll post it again because it directly negates your points:

"[Al's] production in January through April is unprecedented in his career ... In no other season has Al's scoring been so positively correlated with wins, and in no other season did he have nearly as many scoring outbursts (while maintaining his efficiency no less). This also doesn't take into consideration that he was on a new team and started the season injured."

Your response is (1) he's had this type of season before (he hasn't) and (2) he'll have a worse season next year for unstated reasons (there are none).

[Winglish]

You have to admit.. Some of you jazz fans hated Jefferson last year. He played the exact same way this year, but different coaching philosophies do wonders.

You are right. It made me sick. See page 40 or so of this thread. I always liked Jefferson. In fact, my kid still wears his jersey to every game.

[BeesWax]

What I said was pathetic was that the only positive thing I had seen BD say about Al is that he played hard while injured (something entirely unrelated to his actual skills), which was accompanied by the disclaimer that BD is not a fan of Al's game.

Problem is it is not pathetic for some of us it is the truth.

[Eoghan]

Facts are facts, and arguments are arguments. I'm genuinely interested to hear your take on why Al deserves flack for this season, especially for reasons that aren't due to the offensive philosophy that Clifford put in place. What was he asked to do that he did not excel at?

He did everything he was asked to do, that's the problem. I'm not mad at Al, he got paid and feasted on defenses all year. I'm mad at the FO for thinking this is the correct path to building a sustainable, winning franchise. We shortchanged our rebuild for the fleeting warm and fuzzies of making the playoffs in a historically bad East.

Al's being Al, I have nothing negative to say about that. I just don't think we can get decidedly better with Al as our centerpiece.

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

He probably won't regress unless Charlotte signs somebody that takes away a lot of touches. He should continue putting up big numbers since the entire offense is built around him.

[BeesWax]

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

Did you not read what I posted? I'll post it again because it directly negates your points:

"[Al's] production in January through April is unprecedented in his career ... In no other season has Al's scoring been so positively correlated with wins, and in no other season did he have nearly as many scoring outbursts (while maintaining his efficiency no less). This also doesn't take into consideration that he was on a new team and started the season injured."

Your response is (1) he's had this type of season before (he hasn't) and (2) he'll have a worse season next year for unstated reasons (there are none).

Which means he started off the season with more crap games than ever in his career. Also us not having a Milsap to play with a on offense that force fed him and only him at the hindrance of others has a large part in that.

[JDR720]

if we want to be a legitimate contender for the championship we need a better player than Al being our main guy either that or get 2-3 other really solid pieces (border line All-Star or All-Star)

[BeesWax]

Facts are facts, and arguments are arguments. I'm genuinely interested to hear your take on why Al deserves flack for this season, especially for reasons that aren't due to the offensive philosophy that Clifford put in place. What was he asked to do that he did not excel at?

He did everything he was asked to do, that's the problem. I'm not mad at Al, he got paid and feasted on defenses all year. I'm mad at the FO for thinking this is the correct path to building a sustainable, winning franchise. We shortchanged our rebuild for the fleeting warm and fuzzies of making the playoffs in a historically bad East.

Al's being Al, I have nothing negative to say about that. I just don't think we can get decidedly better with Al as our centerpiece.

Al is averaging 22 and 11 this season (rounded up) he has had this type of season before, 23pt/11rb and a 21/11 season the only difference is this team he is on now is good, i expect him to regress back into the 17-20pt and 9-10rb season next season like he did for 4 seasons before he came here which is still good but noting great maybe an All-Star reserve

He probably won't regress unless Charlotte signs somebody that takes away a lot of touches. He should continue putting up big numbers since the entire offense is built around him.

He won't regress but we just peaked with this offense. Force feeding someone like Al so much is really going to stunt all the players around him.

[mrknowitall215]

I can't begin to comprehend the dislike for Al Jefferson that some of us have. I understand that Jefferson's defense can be frustrating, but during the second half of the season when he was healthy he did far more damage to the opposing team's defense than what was done to the Bobcat's defense by relentlessly attacking him via pick-and-roll. I think this may be the first time Jefferson has played with selfless teammates with good character around the board, and that may be the difference in his give-and-take production correlating to wins

Al Jefferson > Paul Millsap

[Eoghan]

I don't think we've reached the ceiling of Alfense yet, upgrading Hendo with a 3pt shooter would improve spacing and keep defenses from crowding Al so much. Our overall team success is pretty close to being maxed out though since there is only so much you can do to improve Al's P&R defense.

[BeesWax]

Facts are facts, and arguments are arguments. I'm genuinely interested to hear your take on why Al deserves flack for this season, especially for reasons that aren't due to the offensive philosophy that Clifford put in place. What was he asked to do that he did not excel at?

I'm not an Al historian, but based on my limited research I believe his production in January through April was unprecedented in his career.

Over the course of the 2013-14 season, Al scored 25+ points on 28 occasions (only twice shooting under 50% from the field and 13 times shooting at or above 60%). We were 22-6 in games where Al scored 25 or more points. I challenge you to find another variable that is more positively correlated with wins than Al's scoring.

To provide some context for those numbers in terms of Al's career production, below is a list by season of the number of times Al reached or exceeded 25 points in a game and the record of his team in games where he did so:

2012-13 - 10 times (his team went 7-3 in those games)
2011-12 - 13 times (his team went 9-4 in those games)
2010-11 - 17 times (his team went 8-9 in those games)
2009-10 - 7 times (his team went 2-5 in those games)
2008-09 - 19 times (his team went 4-15 in those games)
2007-08 - 19 times (his team went 8-11 in those games)
2006-07 - 7 times (his team went 5-2 in those games)
Didn't happen in 2004-05 or 2005-06 seasons.

In no other season has Al's scoring been so positively correlated with wins, and in no other season did he have nearly as many scoring outbursts (while maintaining his efficiency no less). This also doesn't take into consideration that he was on a new team and started the season injured. If he had been full strength all season, we are a three seed and no one is talking about how acquiring Al was a bad move or that he is a bad fit for this team.

That scoring coorelation is because on other teams they knew that what happened this year is not a formula for success.

He is not the centerpiece on a quality winning team. We made the playoffs because of a number of teams tanking and some good fortune. We were 16-24 against .500 or above teams. That is not a good sign for us considering Al is as good as he has ever been(according to you).

In the games you cited we beat 5 playoff teams and one of those is the sub .500 Hawks. Also we beat the Trailblazers and Indy during their rough stretches. Not saying much for Al other than he knows how to stomp bad and terrible teams. He also had some terrible games in there against good teams. The stats don't mean a whole lot if they are empty like this.

[BeesWax]

I can't begin to comprehend the dislike for Al Jefferson that some of us have. I understand that Jefferson's defense can be frustrating, but during the second half of the season when he was healthy he did far more damage to the opposing team's defense than what was done to the Bobcat's defense by relentlessly attacking him via pick-and-roll. I think this may be the first time Jefferson has played with selfless teammates with good character around the board, and that may be the difference in his give-and-take production correlating to wins

Al Jefferson > Paul Millsap

I disagree on the last bit. Milsap is a better all around player and a better fit with the other pieces we have on this team.

Al is far better on offense but a liability on defense and Milsap can play both ways, hit the three and rebound.